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Nasrullah

Tavistock 2016 service fee estimate

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Email from Cambridge Stud this afternoon:

Tavistock soars to new position in marketplace

Following a Group One double on different sides of the world over the weekend, Cambridge Stud's Tavistock has rocketed to the position of being not only New Zealand's hottest young stallion, but now on the radar of every Australian breeder too.
A Rosehill Guineas-Gr.1 (Tarzino) and Hong Kong Derby-Gr.1 (Werther) is a massive result for any sire, but for one with only three crops of racing age, it elevates the success to a whole new level.
Appropriately, both Tarzino and Werther are from Zabeel mares, locking the mating cross in as a must consideration for every breeder with Zabeel mares.
Tarzino (3YO Tavistock ex Zarzino, by Zabeel) has now had 9 starts for 4 wins, 3 placings and A$1,517,050.  Four of his starts to date for Mick Price have been at Group One level; namely the Rosehill Guineas (Ist), Victoria Derby (Ist), Australian Guineas (2nd) and Caulfield Guineas (7th).
Werther (4YO Tavistock ex Bagalollies, by Zabeel) has been seen out 17 times for 7 wins, 8 placings and A$3,314,514.  Yesterday's HK Derby carried HK-1 status, but he also has to his record second placings in the South Australian Derby-Gr.1 and Queensland Derby-Gr.1.
A service fee for Tavistock is yet to be announced but it's a sure bet Sir Patrick Hogan has a figure in mind.  In saying that, the equation under consideration for him, changes by the day!

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I say it will be $50,000 + GST. 

Personally I think that is too much or put another way, too much of a risk given all that can and does go wrong.

At $50K he will still fill instantly as there are very few stallions offering his ability to sire classic stayers.

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At what number or thereabouts is a young stallion considered full these days? Is that number disclosed to breeders? I believe that has a bearing on the viability of the stallion at that price. A stallion af 50k covering 130 or covering 170 is an important factor to consider not only for sale but also for the accessability of a stallion in being able to cover your mare and not be put on the back burner but that is the reality of breeding to a horse in vogue, that you may miss out. 

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Saw the recent edition of the Owner Breeder magazine that is published in the UK  On page 100 is an article about leading active Aus-NZ sires by %BTW to runners (100+). This is the list:

Redoubte's Choice       11.6%           AUS$110,000

Exceed and Excel          9.5%           AUS$110,000

Savabeel                       9.3%              NZ$100,000

Fastnet Rock                8.8%             AUS$200,000

Medeglia d'Oro             7.9%             AUS$110,000

More Than Ready         7.7%            AUS$66,000

Snitzel                           7.5%            AUS$88,000

Pins                               7.4%             NZ$25,000

Tavistock                       7.0%              ????????

Darci Brama                  6.8%             NZ$20,000

Lonhro                           6.8%            AUS$88,000

Tavistock has the lowest number of runners of this list which you would expect because he is the new boy on the block. The service fees are the advertised 2015 seasons.

I'm going to be contentious but I think it needs to be said. Darci Brahma for what ever reason cannot produce a horse good enough to hit the headlines in Australia. Either this is because the good ones haven't gone there, or they aren't good enough to compete over there. In NZ he does well....in Aust not really good enough.

Pins looks like very good value for someone with a mare that an owner wants to breed a nice horse with. Oh fashion is so fickle.

I was blown away when I was informed that before Heroic Valour won the NZ Sires at Elerslie, Fastnet Rock hadn't produced a group one winning two year old colt. I for one think that the NZ two year olds are seriously inferior to the Aussie ones so I wouldn't really read too much into that in this case. My thoughts are reserved in respect to the general ability of our current two year olds.

So the argument I might make would be, is Tavistock worthy of half the fee of Savabeel?  Naturally Tavistock started with just OK mares and Savabeel has been at it for a while now so he has the benefit of an upgrade of mares.

 

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Nice analysis Berri.

I think you have to be careful when you analyse certain SW.

The general consensus is that a SW or Group One win in Australia in tougher than in NZ. I agree with that.

So Tavistock has done really well because Tarzino and Volkstock'N'Barrel have done it in Australia.

Nice to know Savabeel has got some company at the top end.This is great for NZ. 

Tavistock served 211 mares last season. Will be interesting what his new increased service fee brings.

I stated $40k above but as Berri's stats show 50k or 60k would not be out of place.

Looking at some new and unproved stallions, I think there are a few more that can do a Tavistock and go from $7,000 to $15,000 and then to $50,000.

A great chance for breeders. 

 

 

 

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Tavistock's don't come by very often but I'll start that one. I went and had a good look at a heap of stallions recently. Not much to pick from in NZ I'm afraid. The one that gave me the sparkle was Ocean Park. He's a very nice horse and looks like a man.

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I think when assessing a stallion a great place to look is the Select Sale results.  It shows a truer picture.  And I think Jimmy Choux  is head and shoulders ahead of most and could easily be the next Tavistock

Given that it costs around $30.000 to get a Yearling from conception to the sale I don't think too many of these brood-mare owners made money from these stallions

Select averages

 

Jimmy Choux     $89,232    service fee  $10,000        18 entered    17 sold 1 passed in

Tavistock           $  84.086                       $ 8,000         31 entered    29 sold  2 passed in

Savabeel            $ 101,666                     $55,000        10 entered    9 sold   1 passed in

Ocean Park         $64,000                       $30,000        15 entered   10 sold   5 passed in

Pins                     $39,562                       $37,500         21 entered   16 sold   5 passed in

O'Reilly               $$76,208                      $60,000         13 entered   12 sold    1 passed in 

 

Pretty easy to see who's making the money. I applaud Richill and Cambridge Studs for keeping their service fees reasonable.

 

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I'm not trolling. I'm laid up and feeling twitchy. Just want to know why you think the Select Sale is a great place when assessing a stallion's potential? What are you trying to say Swynford? Are you saying that Jimmy Choux is going to be a better stallion that Savabeel, Pins or O'Reilly? I would have thought that you would have studied all the pedigrees of the mares that have gone to the stallions and worked out how many of them were your magical cross.

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I wouldn't say CS will be "keeping their service fees reasonable" for Tavistock in the future, I am assuming he will not be standing for 8k. Service fees are generally an indication of how that horse is perceived at that time not in the future or the past, compare Guillotine to Tavistock, they started off equal, one has performed the other hasn't and their fates reflect that.

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Berri ....... Yearlings in The Premier Sale are out of highly performed families so in my opinion some of the credit should be shared with the mares.  (most are also owned by the big studs)

A better guide is the Select Sale, where the Yearlings are out of mares from lesser performed families.  (and owned by greater representation of breeders)  And if a stallion stands out then he must be producing nice types.      And Jimmy Choux cleaned up here.  For an unproven stallion to average almost $90,000 from lesser mares with only one passing says a lot in my opinion.

 Even beat your precious Tavistock a breed shaper and already sire at the time of two Group One winners from 81 runners.  (wow)  And Tavistock  has something that many stallion owners would dream of and that's access to a large number of Zabeel mares.

Jimmy's average was just $11,000 below Savabeels, another proven sire who is supposed to stamp his progeny.  (compare their service fees)

Jimmy also whipped other proven sires Pins and O'Reilly.  And Ocean Park who is your next biggie, the high pass rate would concern me. 

Looking at the stats above unless you have a Premier mare its a very hard game and I can understand why brood-mare owners quit

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Wow. I thought there was a slightly more comprehensive approach to your reasoning Swynford. So because I’ve currently got a bit of spare time, I’ve gone to the NZB site and accumulated the results from the past 10 years of Select Sales and have compared the top 5 sires on average (3 or more sold) with the others.

 

So what do I think?…statistically I personally think you are slightly off base when talking about group 1 winners and the results of the top of the Select Sales stallions . These are the results from Australasian runners only as I’ve got the data off Breednet. Aussie Gp1’s are in brackets. Just going to compare the top lots but the rest of the info is there:

 

                        Top Sire            Gp1 Winners     Top First season sire

 

2005                 Volksraad           12 (3)                   San Luis                          0

2006                 Stravinsky            5 (2)                   Van Nistelrooy              1

2007                 Towkay                3  (0)                  Lucky Owners               1

2008                 Lion Heart            0                        Lion Heart                      0

2009                 Tail of the Cat      4 (2)                  Oratorio                        1 (1)

2010                 Elusive Quality     2 (2)                  Darci Brahma               7 (1)     

2011                 Excellent Art         0                       Excellent Art                   0

2012                 Dubawi                 4 (4)                  Sir Percy                       0

2013                 Thorn Park           7 (4)                  Swiss Ace                     0

2014                 Raise the Flag               -               Paco Boy                     -

 

When you consider that many of these stallions are covering 100+ mares a season now, odds aren’t good. If you think that any stallion (Tavistock) after 2 racing crops siring 7% stakes winners with approx 3% group 1 winners with 2 being in Aussie, isn't top class then you’re way off base. Just remember, people are only know finding out how to breed him.

 

2013 First crop -  2 progeny in the select sales out of Zabeel mares …Hasselhoof and Pacorus

2014 Second Crop – 1 progeny in the select sales out of Zabeel mares….Tarzino

 

In his first two crops it would seem that in total he covered 11 mares by Zabeel. So the argument that his success is solely to Zabeel…Rubbish. Volkstock‘n’Barrel is out of a Volksraad mare and Tavy out of a Tale of the Cat mare

 

If you were to look at the Northern Hemisphere, Montjeu and Sadlers Wells blood crosses best with Northern dancer/ Green Desert/ Danehill line mares which of course Tavy and Volkstock‘n’Barrel are out of mares by that sire line.

 

2005 LEADING SIRES BY AVERAGE (3 or more sold)
1ST = Volksraad 11 sold Ave: $53,318
2ND = Lord Ballina 6 sold Ave: $53,000
3RD = Montjeu 5 sold Ave: $49,600
4TH = Towkay 4 sold Ave: $43,750
5TH = Kaapstad 8 sold Ave: $39,500

LEADING 1ST CROP SIRES BY AVERAGE (3 or more sold)
1ST = San Luis 3 sold Ave: $37,167
2ND = Keeper 21 sold Ave: $36,952
3RD = Black Minnaloushe 15 sold Ave: $36,800
4TH = Postponed 12 sold Ave: $36,083
5TH = Minardi 4 sold Ave: $28,375

2006 LEADING SIRES BY AVERAGE (3 or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Stravinsky

16

$54,500

Pentire

16

$54,500

Montjeu

9

$50,833

Postponed

6

$50,167

Cape Cross

16

$50,125

LEADING FIRST CROP SIRES BY AVERAGE (3 or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Van Nistelrooy

22

$45,318

Ustinov

7

$39,714

Don Eduardo

10

$38,150

Jungle Pocket

6

$38,083

No Excuse Needed

11

$34,818

2007 Leading Sires by Average (3 or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Towkay

4

$81,875

$327,500

$135,000

Tobougg

3

$80,833

$242,500

$140,000

No Excuse Needed

12

$78,083

$937,000

$230,000

Pins

13

$77,077

$1,002,000

$150,000

O'Reilly

13

$75,269

$978,500

$150,000

Leading First Season Sires by Average (3 or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Lucky Owners

3

$72,000

$216,000

$170,000

Captain Rio

12

$69,250

$831,000

$140,000

Spartacus

12

$61,208

$734,500

$140,000

Storm Creek

7

$61,071

$427,500

$92,500

Ishiguru

3

$57,500

$172,500

$80,000

2008 Top Ten Sires by Average (3 or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Lion Heart

3

$183,333

$550,000

$230,000

O'Reilly

17

$134,471

$2,286,000

$280,000

Cape Cross

4

$115,250

$461,000

$220,000

Scaredee Cat

4

$112,500

$450,000

$300,000

Pentire

12

$95,750

$1,149,000

$200,000

Top Ten First Season Sires by Average (3 or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Lion Heart

3

$183,333

$550,000

$230,000

Scaredee Cat

4

$112,500

$450,000

$300,000

Not a Single Doubt

4

$71,250

$285,000

$110,000

Reset

3

$65,000

$195,000

$85,000

High Chaparral

15

$62,800

$942,000

$140,000

2009 Leading Sires by Average

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Tale of the Cat

4

$118,000

$472,000

$205,000

Oratorio

3

$78,333

$235,000

$100,000

Storming Home

3

$60,333

$181,000

$90,000

Pentire

17

$60,176

$1,023,000

$175,000

O'Reilly

32

$57,031

$1,825,000

$140,000

Leading First Season Sires

Sire

Sold

Aggregate

Average

Top Price

Oratorio

3

$235,000

$78,333

$100,000

Storming Home

3

$181,000

$60,333

$90,000

Stratum

3

$167,500

$55,833

$100,000

Zenno Rob Roy

6

$283,000

$47,167

$80,000

Keeninsky

4

$163,000

$40,750

$80,000

2010 Leading Sires by Average (three or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Elusive Quality

4

$122,500

$490,000

$200,000

O'Reilly

30

$87,100

$2,613,000

$200,000

Bel Esprit

3

$83,333

$250,000

$150,000

Pentire

18

$83,222

$1,498,000

$170,000

Elusive City

12

$79,125

$949,500

$250,000

Leading First Season Sires by Average (three or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Darci Brahma

12

$55,292

$663,500

$160,000

Fast 'n' Famous

17

$49,529

$842,000

$120,000

Perfectly Ready

29

$48,948

$1,419,500

$130,000

Lucky Unicorn

16

$34,969

$559,500

$75,000

2011 Leading Sires by Average (three or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Excellent Art

3

$155,000

$465,000

$250,000 (Lot 1009)

Iffraaj

35

$75,729

$2,650,500

$290,000 (Lot 540)

Snippetson

4

$73,125

$292,500

$170,000 (Lot 944)

Fast 'n' Famous

6

$70,500

$423,000

$260,000 (Lot 559)

Dylan Thomas

3

$66,667

$200,000

$80,000 (Lot 1092)

Leading First Season Sires by Average (three or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Excellent Art

3

$155,000

$465,000

$250,000 (Lot 1009)

Iffraaj

35

$75,729

$2,650,500

$290,000 (Lot 540)

Dylan Thomas

3

$66,667

$200,000

$80,000 (Lot 1092)

Any Suggestion

12

$55,708

$668,500

$130,000 (Lot 972)

Shaft

5

$43,200

$216,000

$60,000 (Lot 674)

2012 Leading Sires by Average (three or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Dubawi

3

$88,333

$265,000

$200,000 (Lot 912)

High Chaparral

8

$87,750

$702,000

$160,000 (Lot 1119, 958)

Pentire

16

$79,219

$1,267,500

$230,000 (Lot 1096)

Savabeel

17

$68,147

$1,158,500

$140,000 (Lot 706)

Darci Brahma

12

$62,875

$754,500

$160,000 (Lot 840)

Leading First Season Sires by Average (two or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Sir Percy

8

$49,625

$397,000

$120,000 (Lot 963)

Fully Fledged

7

$47,786

$334,500

$75,000 (Lot 619, 723)

Astronomer Royal

2

$46,000

$92,000

$47,000 (Lot 927)

Guillotine

19

$43,289

$822,500

$125,000 (Lot 984)

Myboycharlie

4

$41,750

$167,000

$65,000 (Lot 978)

2013 Leading Sires by Average (three or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Thorn Park

12

$65,333

$784,000

$140,000 (Lot 707)

Darci Brahma

12

$63,750

$765,000

$160,000 (Lot 631)

O'Reilly

12

$62,625

$751,500

$115,000 (Lot 1040, 688)

Pins

14

$60,250

$843,500

$150,000 (Lot 528)

Align

3

$57,000

$171,000

$75,000 (Lot 639)

Leading First Season Sires (three or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Swiss Ace

12

$51,500

$618,000

$160,000 (Lot 1007)

Thewayyouare

16

$50,500

$808,000

$200,000 (Lot 533)

Sufficient

3

$45,000

$135,000

$80,000 (Lot 500)

Mastercraftsman

24

$35,771

$858,500

$75,000 (Lot 989)

Road to Rock

9

$34,167

$307,500

$65,000 (Lot 1049)

2014 Leading Sires by Average (three or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Raise the Flag

3

$86,667

$260,000

$147,500 (Lot 1069)

O'Reilly

8

$73,625

$589,000

$130,000 (Lot 543)

Paco Boy

8

$61,750

$494,000

$105,000 (Lot 891)

Shocking

24

$61,646

$1,479,500

$160,000 (Lot 837)

Bachelor Duke

8

$61,125

$489,000

$110,000 (Lot 518)

Leading First Season Sires (three or more sold)

Sire

Sold

Average

Aggregate

Top Price

Paco Boy

8

$61,750

$494,000

$105,000 (Lot 891)

Shocking

24

$61,646

$1,479,500

$160,000 (Lot 837)

Rip Van Winkle

22

$53,273

$1,172,000

$170,000 (Lot 849)

Makfi

9

$52,556

$473,000

$100,000 (Lot 708)

Per Incanto

11

$51,455

$566,000

$170,000 (Lot 838)

 

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I worry about you Berri , I'm looking for a Group One winner,  Its a bit like lotto I want first prize,     O'Rielly   1 in 90 something,  Savabeel   1 in 40 something   Tavistock   1 in 30 something    your on to it Berri

 

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Swynford the old saying about statistics goes "lies damed lies and statistics".

I have never seen anyone be as ridiculous in stallion assessment as to quote a 2nd tier sale average as a comparative analysis of a stallions merits.

In reading many of your posts it strikes me that you may be a living example of a person who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.

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Don't worry too much. I only race two horses, Snapshot and Hasselhoof and I'm very happy with my lot. Precedence was just retired so the old boy will now have a great life as an eventor. Owning a group one winner for me is all about management luck. The trainer and their staff are the key to success, not breeding some sort of obscure cross which can't cope with a bit of interrogation. If you are a breeder, you expose yourself to the vagrancy of genetics and there have been multitudes of billionaires, research scientists, geneticists, stock people and greedy people who over centuries have tried to predict the system. You can't, and that's the pleasure. The differential is in the management.

I made some predictions on Tavistock, based on physiological data obtained using sensors that bench marks potential performance parameters. One in 30 foals to group 1 winners is sensational. I have for many years thought that the bench mark for stallion performance was Nureyev, who from memory produced 17% stakes winners to foals. He just so happens to be the damsire of Zabeel.

So what ever it is that you are trying Swynford, you will fail using your current hypothesis.

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No doubt stakes winners to foals is the "real benchmark". Means that there's nowhere to hide. Apart from the absurd recent covering year where Tavistock covered 200 odd mares, it is from this point on that things will become statistically interesting because pedigree and type will now play a major part moving ahead. It is from this point on that the multiple champions are born with some sort of statistical certainty. Patrick is quite good at this sort of thing

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47 minutes ago, Shad said:

How will the south island sale will go. Be keen to see how the zacinto and raise the flag stocks go. A couple of up and coming sires.

Hmmmmm..... Raise The Flag up and coming?He had very big first two crops race for poor results. No stakes winners. No stakes placed. Low amount of winners to runners or foals.Only served 7 mares last season. That tells you something. 

I understand the only start which he had was unplaced was at 2200m. I think this might say a bit about him.They might change his name from Raise The Flag to White Flag.I like Zacinto.

I also don't put any emphasis on results of the select sale.Look at what prices the Tavistock's were making a few years ago. Not much.

Some yearling horses look great and can't run.

They can be soft mentally and give up easily. They can have highly strung temperaments and have spent their energy before a race. Some don't carry on strengthening a lot at every preparation. A great walk does not always result in speed. 

I think Swynford's opinion is biased about Jimmy Choux results at select because he advised on the mating of Jimmy Choux. I commend you for this mating, well done. I disagree on the select sale logic.

I think Berri has also made a good point. How to improve on existing results by looking at what type of mares and bloodlines have worked with various stallions. Learning from results.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Nasrullah said:

Hmmmmm..... Raise The Flag up and coming?He had very big first two crops race for poor results. No stakes winners. No stakes placed. Low amount of winners to runners or foals.Only served 7 mares last season. That tells you something. 

I understand the only start which he had was unplaced was at 2200m. I think this might say a bit about him.They might change his name from Raise The Flag to White Flag.I like Zacinto.

I also don't put any emphasis on results of the select sale.Look at what prices the Tavistock's were making a few years ago. Not much.

Some yearling horses look great and can't run.

They can be soft mentally and give up easily. They can have highly strung temperaments and have spent their energy before a race. Some don't carry on strengthening a lot at every preparation. A great walk does not always result in speed. 

I think Swynford's opinion is biased about Jimmy Choux results at select because he advised on the mating of Jimmy Choux. I commend you for this mating, well done. I disagree on the select sale logic.

I think Berri has also made a good point. How to improve on existing results by looking at what type of mares and bloodlines have worked with various stallions. Learning from results.

 

 

 

That doesn't sound to good for raise the flag only 7 mares, not very often a anderton stallion doesn't preform well, i guess it does depend on the mares he gets too, looks like the south island sale has a good mix of yearlings but i guess time will tell, do you like any lots, what was the average last year.

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Is that correct Swunford? Did you advise the mating that created Jimmy Choux? I'd asked once before what group one winners you had actually bred but we didn't hear a response so I gathered from the lack of response that you hadn't bred any.  I'm not pointing old bird bones at you, I'm just trying to find out whether you're onto something or not

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Berri, It is true and Jimmy Choux owner states that Swynford advised him of the mating.

Swynford is Patrick Weal from Champions By Design.

As I stated above, I commend him for that mating.

Below is from owner of Jimmy Choux-

Pedigrees

Richard has been studying pedigrees for many years, and looks for proven nicks and crosses that he thinks are more likely to produce a champion horse.

His system has produced numerous winners throughout Australasia, including two champions Count Chivas and Jimmy Choux who between them won 8 Group One races.

Richard consulted the late Clive Harper for many years and has relied on a computer program developed by Patrick Weal called "Champions by Design" to colour code Line Breeding and Nicks and Crosses patterns.

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On 3/24/2016 at 9:49 AM, fitzy said:

Swynford the old saying about statistics goes "lies damed lies and statistics".

I have never seen anyone be as ridiculous in stallion assessment as to quote a 2nd tier sale average as a comparative analysis of a stallions merits.

In reading many of your posts it strikes me that you may be a living example of a person who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.

I think any unproven stallion owner would love a near $90,000 average from 2 tier mares, its not lies, people paid that much for his yearlings. 

The part that hit home to me was that it was nine times his service fee. Equal top price was out of a mare recommended by me 21 times his service fee. Given it costs around $25 to 30 K to get to Karaka  people who bred to him made a profit. I see value in that. Both stallion and mare owner win.  People stay and reinvest in the industry.

Comparing that to Berri's next biggie Ocean Park or for that matter any of his barn mates at WS, try adding 25 to 30 K to the yearlings sold by each of their stallions in the Select Session and tell me how much profit the brood-mare owner made. Easy to see who is winning here.   And you are right I do see the price of these ridiculous service fees but unless you own a mare that will get into Premier I didn't see any value in any of those stallions.. 

 

 

 

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