RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
JayTee2016

Thoughts on M.M market?

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8 hours ago, kakama said:

 Gee, 

Looking at this info brings back memories. 

Sad that a couple of lives were lost in this saga, especially when you see that the trainers involved have gone on to bigger and brighter things! 

Strange, when trainers get done for drugs, you would think their careers are over! But usually, just the opposite happens. That tells me that everyone, including owners are prepared to push the limits to gain an advantage.

  Good point Kakama.    It will be interesting to see if Mr Gural of the meadowlands applies double standards as an owner of several horses trained by some of the leading trainers currently involved in the latest drug scandal, and whom race at his tracks.  Lets hope not. Harnesslink do have a very good point there.  Glaucine, Wonder when the boys at the RIU will start testing for that one, Maybe 1 april 2020?   

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11 hours ago, what a post said:

  Good point Kakama.    It will be interesting to see if Mr Gural of the meadowlands applies double standards as an owner of several horses trained by some of the leading trainers currently involved in the latest drug scandal, and whom race at his tracks.  Lets hope not. Harnesslink do have a very good point there.  Glaucine, Wonder when the boys at the RIU will start testing for that one, Maybe 1 april 2020?   

If there are three or four of us on here that look like All Star cheerleaders then there are three or four more that look like those fox terrier's barking and humping away at your leg. All that's left when you leave the scene is a heap of saliva on your leg...well at least I hope it's saliva :) 

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Believe none of what you hear, and only half of what you see.” ― Benjamin Franklin

The trouble is I'm struggling to even believe half of what I'm seeing whenever the All Stars line up in a major race!

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15 minutes ago, what a post said:

The point JT  was to highlight yet another  current  major example of the use of performance enhancers which media reports have speculated may have consequences worldwide.    Still,you keep faith JT.

If they are guilty of any wrong doing what a post I would be with you looking for a hang mans rope but we cant use magnificent achievements as evidence of wrong doing. Can we? 

We all love the game. I'm all in favour of using every available method in the world to catch drug cheats. Where ever you find money in large amounts, there will always be cheats looking for ways to grab more than their share. Always has been and always will be. 

Believe it or not I'm not a big fan of blind faith. Love and religion have a lot to answer for. I choose to believe that the All Stars have raised the bar to such a height that our sport is evolving for it's betterment. Their horses are faster and stronger. They are invariably very well driven but to be fair some are so dominant you get the feeling they could be poorly driven and still win. 

The blue magic debacle was huge for Mark Purdon. He shamed his highly respected family to epic proportions. He saw two people take their own life. One was a close friend. That chaptor must still give him nightmares. I think it's a massive credit to him that he has picked himself up and is now better than ever. It makes no sense that he of all people would entertain revisiting the worst period of his life. I'm prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt until someone can prove otherwise.

I will keep the faith pardon the pun and keep enjoying some of the best horses I've ever seen race. How good is Our Dream About Me? I was left gob smacked looking at the TV with it's win on Have faith in me's Miracle Mile day. I don't think I've ever seen a young horse do that anywhere in the world. Just breath taking. More of the same please.

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I think what I've been harping on about with the All Stars targeting specific high value races is illustrated with premier night at Auckland on Friday.

Race 1. 20k trot. No All Stars runners

Race 2. 20k pace. No All Stars runners

Race 3. 80k G2 Delightful Lady Classic for the 2yr old fillies. Three All Stars runners. Probably first three favs.

Race 4. 30k trot. No All Stars runners.

Race 5. 100k G1 Cardigan Bay Stakes. Two All Stars runners. Clear top two favs just like last year.

Race 6. 40k mares race. No All Stars runners.

Race 7. 250k G1 Great Northern Derby. Three All Stars runners. Clear top two favs.

Race 8. 50k Auckland FFA. One All Star runner. Likely favourite.

Race 9. 20k pace. No All Stars runners.

Race 10. 20k pace. No All Stars runners.

 

Those numbers highlight the targeting of high value elite races. There is no accident about these figures.

Just for the record. Robert Dunn is our leading trainer at the moment. His runners below. Spot the difference. 

 

R1. 20k trot. One runner.

R2. 20k pace. No runners.

R3. 80k G2 pace. One runner.

R4. 30k trot. One runner.

R5. 100k G1 pace. One runner.

R6. 40k pace. Two runners.

R7. 250k G1 Derby. No Dunn runners.

R8. 50k race. No runners.

R9. 20k trot. No runners.

R10. 20k pace. Two runners.

 

Both are magnificent trainers. One is set up to take all the cream off the cake. One is not.  

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6 hours ago, JayTee2016 said:

If they are guilty of any wrong doing what a post I would be with you looking for a hang mans rope but we cant use magnificent achievements as evidence of wrong doing. Can we? 

We all love the game. I'm all in favour of using every available method in the world to catch drug cheats. Where ever you find money in large amounts, there will always be cheats looking for ways to grab more than their share. Always has been and always will be. 

Believe it or not I'm not a big fan of blind faith. Love and religion have a lot to answer for. I choose to believe that the All Stars have raised the bar to such a height that our sport is evolving for it's betterment. Their horses are faster and stronger. They are invariably very well driven but to be fair some are so dominant you get the feeling they could be poorly driven and still win. 

The blue magic debacle was huge for Mark Purdon. He shamed his highly respected family to epic proportions. He saw two people take their own life. One was a close friend. That chaptor must still give him nightmares. I think it's a massive credit to him that he has picked himself up and is now better than ever. It makes no sense that he of all people would entertain revisiting the worst period of his life. I'm prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt until someone can prove otherwise.

I will keep the faith pardon the pun and keep enjoying some of the best horses I've ever seen race. How good is Our Dream About Me? I was left gob smacked looking at the TV with it's win on Have faith in me's Miracle Mile day. I don't think I've ever seen a young horse do that anywhere in the world. Just breath taking. More of the same please.

 

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48 minutes ago, JayTee2016 said:

I think what I've been harping on about with the All Stars targeting specific high value races is illustrated with premier night at Auckland on Friday.

Race 1. 20k trot. No All Stars runners

Race 2. 20k pace. No All Stars runners

Race 3. 80k G2 Delightful Lady Classic for the 2yr old fillies. Three All Stars runners. Probably first three favs.

Race 4. 30k trot. No All Stars runners.

Race 5. 100k G1 Cardigan Bay Stakes. Two All Stars runners. Clear top two favs just like last year.

Race 6. 40k mares race. No All Stars runners.

Race 7. 250k G1 Great Northern Derby. Three All Stars runners. Clear top two favs.

Race 8. 50k Auckland FFA. One All Star runner. Likely favourite.

Race 9. 20k pace. No All Stars runners.

Race 10. 20k pace. No All Stars runners.

 

Those numbers highlight the targeting of high value elite races. There is no accident about these figures.

Just for the record. Robert Dunn is our leading trainer at the moment. His runners below. Spot the difference. 

 

R1. 20k trot. One runner.

R2. 20k pace. No runners.

R3. 80k G2 pace. One runner.

R4. 30k trot. One runner.

R5. 100k G1 pace. One runner.

R6. 40k pace. Two runners.

R7. 250k G1 Derby. No Dunn runners.

R8. 50k race. No runners.

R9. 20k trot. No runners.

R10. 20k pace. Two runners.

 

Both are magnificent trainers. One is set up to take all the cream off the cake. One is not.  

How exciting one trainer dominating the card paying $1.10 to win, great.

I see Maria Sharipova is in a bit of trouble!

At least Robert Dunn gives more support to harness clubs in NZ.

If it wasn't for him racing his racing team in NZ then a lot of races wouldn't happen!

One is selfish and the other isn't!

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54 minutes ago, Brodie said:

How exciting one trainer dominating the card paying $1.10 to win, great.

I see Maria Sharipova is in a bit of trouble!

At least Robert Dunn gives more support to harness clubs in NZ.

If it wasn't for him racing his racing team in NZ then a lot of races wouldn't happen!

One is selfish and the other isn't!

So Mark Purdon is selfish now?  Human beings have lots of emotions when they win a Group one classic elite race. I didn't know guilt should now be added to the list of emotions. 

Robert Dunn gives more support to clubs than Mark Purdon? Sorry I didn't realize Robert was running a charity. 

Last time I looked Robert Dunn was doing very well out of harness racing.

What the ##*^# has Maria Sharapova got to do with this topic? More of your slurs totally devoid of merit.

So should everyone avoid Derby night because it won't be exciting. Why? Because some of the All Stars big names will be racing and likely winning. Great logic. 

I thought you had something to debate with. All you have is bullshit and anonymous attacks and slurs.

You attack those with poor UDR's and great UDR's.

Best you stick to betting at Manawatu and Otaki. 

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13 minutes ago, JayTee2016 said:

So Mark Purdon is selfish now?  Human beings have lots of emotions when they win a Group one classic elite race. I didn't know guilt should now be added to the list of emotions. 

Robert Dunn gives more support to clubs than Mark Purdon? Sorry I didn't realize Robert was running a charity. 

Last time I looked Robert Dunn was doing very well out of harness racing.

What the ##*^# has Maria Sharapova got to do with this topic? More of your slurs totally devoid of merit.

So should everyone avoid Derby night because it won't be exciting. Why? Because some of the All Stars big names will be racing and likely winning. Great logic. 

I thought you had something to debate with. All you have is bullshit and anonymous attacks and slurs.

You attack those with poor UDR's and great UDR's.

Best you stick to betting at Manawatu and Otaki. 

You attacked the leading trainer in NZ.

Point was JT was that would anyone have thought Sharipova would be using banned drugs?

A lot of punters won't bet in the races that the All Stars are in because of the divs!

Why invest at Manawatu again?

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15 minutes ago, Brodie said:

You attacked the leading trainer in NZ.

Point was JT was that would anyone have thought Sharipova would be using banned drugs?

A lot of punters won't bet in the races that the All Stars are in because of the divs!

Why invest at Manawatu again?

Clearly comprehension is an issue with you Brodie as several others have pointed out.

Where exactly did I attack Robert Dunn?

I described him as a magnificent trainer. Is that your definition of "attacking?" 

I merely pointed out the difference between the two top trainers in regard to targeting the big money races.

Yes some punters will not bet in races where there is a raging hot fav All Star or otherwise. Others will just put more on.

If the All Stars withdrew all the runners on Derby night do you honestly believe betting turnover would increase? If you believe that then the chances are you are still putting teeth under your pillow hoping for a visit and $2 from the tooth fairy.

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27 minutes ago, JayTee2016 said:

Clearly comprehension is an issue with you Brodie as several others have pointed out.

Where exactly did I attack Robert Dunn?

I described him as a magnificent trainer. Is that your definition of "attacking?" 

I merely pointed out the difference between the two top trainers in regard to targeting the big money races.

Yes some punters will not bet in races where there is a raging hot fav All Star or otherwise. Others will just put more on.

If the All Stars withdrew all the runners on Derby night do you honestly believe betting turnover would increase? If you believe that then the chances are you are still putting teeth under your pillow hoping for a visit and $2 from the tooth fairy.

Would expect more than $2 for my tooth!

Yes I would expect bigger turnover on the races.

Why would you bother betting on the tote when you back the winner and get $1.10 back?

Im pleased that you enjoy the AllStars winning everything, I certainly don't and many other punters and trainers don't either.

Our perogative  surely?

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18 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Would expect more than $2 for my tooth!

Yes I would expect bigger turnover on the races.

Why would you bother betting on the tote when you back the winner and get $1.10 back?

Im pleased that you enjoy the AllStars winning everything, I certainly don't and many other punters and trainers don't either.

Our perogative  surely?

Why would you expect more from the tooth fairy than me Brodie? Are you a narcissist? :) 

Is that $1.10 a guaranteed winner? If so,why not put the house on it? Why not anchor it in trifecta's,first four's and quaddies etc? If I was a $50 win punter I would never put that on a $1.10 shot but I would look for value elsewhere in the race. Perhaps a place bet. 

It's not that I enjoy the All Stars. What I do enjoy is seeing great horses and big races and I especially enjoy the fact I can back them with confidence. The $1.20 on Hughie Green was looking a bit sick as soon as M.M handed up to it's main opposition on Friday. Can you imagine the All Stars doing that especially in a G1? 

Yes,it's your prerogative not to bet. Save your money for the very exciting and oh so predictable elite races at Otaki.

So you're not going to bet on Derby night? So no more bitching about the All Stars winning more group one's a few hours later?  

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25 minutes ago, JayTee2016 said:

Why would you expect more from the tooth fairy than me Brodie? Are you a narcissist? :) 

Is that $1.10 a guaranteed winner? If so,why not put the house on it? Why not anchor it in trifecta's,first four's and quaddies etc? If I was a $50 win punter I would never put that on a $1.10 shot but I would look for value elsewhere in the race. Perhaps a place bet. 

It's not that I enjoy the All Stars. What I do enjoy is seeing great horses and big races and I especially enjoy the fact I can back them with confidence. The $1.20 on Hughie Green was looking a bit sick as soon as M.M handed up to it's main opposition on Friday. Can you imagine the All Stars doing that especially in a G1? 

Yes,it's your prerogative not to bet. Save your money for the very exciting and oh so predictable elite races at Otaki.

So you're not going to bet on Derby night? So no more bitching about the All Stars winning more group one's a few hours later?  

No such thing as a guaranteed winner and when no value or unders wouldn't waste my time.

Personally get more kick out of getting a roughy home in a maiden race than watching the Blue and Silver beat up in a big race.

If there is money to be made at Otaki grass track then I will be on, and more exhilarating than Auckland predictable race.

Auckland fixed odds are always very short so probably won't.

No point in bitching as it will be as predictable as anything. You are right they will be running for third when the AllStars are in.

If punters get a buzz and can make money on stinking hot favourites at Auckland then good on them!

Always enjoy a good debate, and the ability to express opinion whether you agree or not.

If everyone agrees with everyone then can't have a mass debate!

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8 minutes ago, Brodie said:

No such thing as a guaranteed winner and when no value or unders wouldn't waste my time.

Personally get more kick out of getting a roughy home in a maiden race than watching the Blue and Silver beat up in a big race.

If there is money to be made at Otaki grass track then I will be on, and more exhilarating than Auckland predictable race.

Auckland fixed odds are always very short so probably won't.

No point in bitching as it will be as predictable as anything. You are right they will be running for third when the AllStars are in.

If punters get a buzz and can make money on stinking hot favourites at Auckland then good on them!

Always enjoy a good debate, and the ability to express opinion whether you agree or not.

If everyone agrees with everyone then can't have a mass debate!

You shoot your own acquirement down in flames. Talk about contradicting. The races are predictable but there are no such things as guaranteed winners. What does that mean Brodie?

I can only speak for myself but I get a buzz from winning money off any bloody thing. If I won $1000 off a $10 bet it still has the same monetary profit value as winning $1090 off a $100 bet. Still spends the same. I try not to get emotional about money. I also haven't had many certificates from the TAB for picking $20 winners etc. 

I honestly thought you knew a thing or two about betting. Don't you like money? If you did you'd be all over All Stars runners like a fly on brown stuff. You don't like the All Stars and you don't like predictable winners so as a punter you don't bet and just whine instead. Hows that working for you? 

I can tell you this. I can watch a group one race without betting on it and really enjoy what unfolds. If the winner pays sod all it does not detract from the quality of the race. I just don't get that same feel in a low value low class unpredictable race elsewhere. If you do,then good luck to you.

With respect Brodie,you need to examine your own logic.  

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7 minutes ago, JayTee2016 said:

You shoot your own acquirement down in flames. Talk about contradicting. The races are predictable but there are no such things as guaranteed winners. What does that mean Brodie?

I can only speak for myself but I get a buzz from winning money off any bloody thing. If I won $1000 off a $10 bet it still has the same monetary profit value as winning $1090 off a $100 bet. Still spends the same. I try not to get emotional about money. I also haven't had many certificates from the TAB for picking $20 winners etc. 

I honestly thought you knew a thing or two about betting. Don't you like money? If you did you'd be all over All Stars runners like a fly on brown stuff. You don't like the All Stars and you don't like predictable winners so as a punter you don't bet and just whine instead. Hows that working for you? 

I can tell you this. I can watch a group one race without betting on it and really enjoy what unfolds. If the winner pays sod all it does not detract from the quality of the race. I just don't get that same feel in a low value low class unpredictable race elsewhere. If you do,then good luck to you.

With respect Brodie,you need to examine your own logic.  

I don't beleive putting on 1k at $1.10 to make $100 as good value as you need 10 of these to win to just cover 1 that loses.

Can not go into detail,on this site for obvious reasons JT.

Yes I certainly prefer to invest on lower class races as provide better value!

My logic works extremely well for me, it obviously doesn't for you or the GONSTA!

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3 hours ago, kakama said:

.

I read that article regarding Purdons disqualification. I thought he came across as a fairly decent guy. For a start, he admitted using it, when hrnz or the police couldn't find any evidence of him using the drug. When has anyone ever owned up in either code?? It even sounds like he made contact with the police, without them chasing him.

 

No one has ever said mark purdon is not a top bloke.         I do think your interpretation of the article was way off the mark though. Having spoken at one time to someone who had been interviewed by police, there was huge pressure placed  on him and his staff and anyone associated ,by police..  That's then, Nows now.  Kakama you may think racing is cleaner now than then,personally I do not..  What about my comments about Auckland reactor.  If you think everything is as it was 3 years ago when he last raced, then there can be no doubt he was  not as good as about 10 of the current all star team.

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35 minutes ago, Brodie said:

I don't beleive putting on 1k at $1.10 to make $100 as good value as you need 10 of these to win to just cover 1 that loses.

Can not go into detail,on this site for obvious reasons JT.

Yes I certainly prefer to invest on lower class races as provide better value!

My logic works extremely well for me, it obviously doesn't for you or the GONSTA!

If your logic works for you with your betting Brodie then more power to you. 

I've seen you say it is extremely difficult to consistently win off the gallops. I personally find it extremely difficult to win consistently off low grade low value harness races. So many question marks over fitness and motivation etc etc etc. At least with the All Stars you know they will be 100% nailed down for the big one's and with no question marks about motivation. 

If the All Stars winning is as predictable as you say then surely there is a way of winning on the punt with them? I personally thought the $3.80 Piccadilly Princess paid to beat Golden Goddess was nice. Did you see Piccadilly Princess beat GG at their previous start?.

Can you see a horse to beat Lazarus in the Derby? The All Stars all can't be paying $1.10 

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2 minutes ago, JayTee2016 said:

If your logic works for you with your betting Brodie then more power to you. 

I've seen you say it is extremely difficult to consistently win off the gallops. I personally find it extremely difficult to win consistently off low grade low value harness races. So many question marks over fitness and motivation etc etc etc. At least with the All Stars you know they will be 100% nailed down for the big one's and with no question marks about motivation. 

If the All Stars winning is as predictable as you say then surely there is a way of winning on the punt with them? I personally thought the $3.80 Piccadilly Princess paid to beat Golden Goddess was nice. Did you see Piccadilly Princess beat GG at their previous start?.

Can you see a horse to beat Lazarus in the Derby? They All Stars all can't be paying $1.10 

Just wish the TAB would give me more power.

They have got so risk averse it is not funny.

The fixed odds they bring out in the morning nowadays are pathetically low, and would be interesting to know how many are actually punting large on the opening odds.

When you have 5 or 6 paying 1.70 or less for a place in a 10 horse field I say no value and silly to invest.

I beleive the TAB would be better to go back to the way they originally set the odds, far fairer and they would turnover more.

Have a look at when they bring the Head To Heads out for harness compared to gallops!!!!!!!

Not sure now what Piccadilly Princess was on fixed odds to win, depends on size of your wagering whether value or not as it had to beat Golden Goddess and yes it did win at Methven but that was grass.

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3 minutes ago, Brodie said:

depends on size of your wagering whether value or not 

The amount you wager has nothing to do with whether a horse's odds represent value or not.

The term "value"is bandied about on Trackside - often used to describe a horse that is paying a higher price than some of the favourites.

Value is where the odds on offer are better than your assessment of the horse's chances of winning.  Whether you bet $1, or $10 or $1,000 doesn't change whether the horse's odds represent value.

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20 minutes ago, JayTee2016 said:

Is Methven a grass track Brodie? :) 

Yes!!!!

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18 minutes ago, The Crucible said:

The amount you wager has nothing to do with whether a horse's odds represent value or not.

The term "value"is bandied about on Trackside - often used to describe a horse that is paying a higher price than some of the favourites.

Value is where the odds on offer are better than your assessment of the horse's chances of winning.  Whether you bet $1, or $10 or $1,000 doesn't change whether the horse's odds represent value.

Don't care what they say on Trackside, whether something is value or not!

If you don't like it yourself at the odds they are giving then you don't back it!

If you have a 10 horse field there are obviously 3 divs. If the bookies have 5 or 6 paying $1.70 or less for a place then you are buying money and absolutely no value to me.

If you are a  small better and just for fun and something to watch then go for it, if it suits you.

Not for me though.

 

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12 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Don't care what they say on Trackside, whether something is value or not!

If you don't like it yourself at the odds they are giving then you don't back it!

If you have a 10 horse field there are obviously 3 divs. If the bookies have 5 or 6 paying $1.70 or less for a place then you are buying money and absolutely no value to me.

If you are a  small better and just for fun and something to watch then go for it, if it suits you.

Not for me though.

 

If bookies have set the fixed odds market with five or six paying under even money for a place then hows the tote looking?

If you won't use the tote as your bet will kill the pool then surely you need to look at the better races with bigger pools?

Most trackside presenters wouldn't know value if it jumped up and bit them on the bum. As Crucible says,they invariably describe anything that is not favourite as "value"..even if it's not.

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