Midget

Lance O'Sullivan

369 posts in this topic

38 minutes ago, Yorkielad said:

I like Lance and have found him to be a straight up guy, but this tosh is just unacceptable in the real world and they and others should stand up and be counted. Far to often its who you know and not what, in this business and no wonder most of the public avoids anything to do with the game. 

If Lance is a straight up guy he will plead guilty as charged.  He and Scott will reimburse their owners for the prize money they now relinquish, and the owners of the horses which move up a place for the delay in getting their increased prize money.  They will reimburse their owners for the training costs and racing fees paid during their cobalt campaigns.  They will happily compensate RIU in full for the Grierson costs.   And they will cop whatever the JCA imposes by way of bans or fines.

One might expect that Scott, given previous racing "form", gets stiffer punishment that O'Sullivan.  However, O'Sullivan, as a dairy farmer with several farms, could be expected to be more aware than Scott that cobalt goes into cows water troughs, and that might square up their punishments.

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3 hours ago, integrity said:

Of the troughs that were tested , what were the cobalt levels in each trough . Presumably there was a placebo trough for the sake of a comparison . If so at what time frame did our boys in the RIU decide that it was imperative to procure water samples for evaluation ? If the troughs had been treated with an algaecide trough block would that have influenced a colour change . Does anyone have any experience with regards to trough blocks ? Simple question , exude colour or not ?

 

Of the troughs that were tested , what were the cobalt levels in each trough . Presumably there was a placebo trough for the sake of a comparison . If so at what time frame did our boys in the RIU decide that it was imperative to procure water samples for evaluation ?

 

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1 hour ago, hesi said:

So Leggy, what actual Cobalt salt(compound), would normally be used to dose water troughs, as it seems a normal agricultural practice.

Can't be too many as they must be water soluble, sulphate, chloride?

 

I don't know really but one example used as an algaecide is here: http://www.fil.co.nz/products/hygiene/trough-block/

That contains a modest amount of cobalt sulphate.

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12 minutes ago, hesi said:

Yeah you ignorant plebs, go away and do your research, it's called Google.  Very handy, you can frame any debate you want to suit your end result

We are honoured to not only have a leading climate scientist, but also skilled biochemist post on here, those sort of people are rarely wrong.

 

 

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Midget, I accept that regular high doses of oral cobalt salts appear to be capable of causing levels in excess of the threshold. That has been shown in the Walkinshaw case as you note, also here in the O'Sullivan/Scott case, and possibly in the Moody case currently being deliberated, even though Dillo reports that "Moody's case has not been heard"! I note the expert witness in that case has changed his testimony from the chance of oral administration breaching the threshold being nigh impossible, to it being quite probable. We certainly have shifting scientific sands here on that issue.

The possibility that some sort of oral administration might produce levels above the threshold in this case is real but that's not what makes this story so fantastic. The idea that top class horses were running round a cow paddock drinking from cattle troughs that were known or should have been known to be dosed with cobalt salts is what I find incredible. And that for long enough to drink enough and close enough to race time to deliver levels three times the threshold.

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11 minutes ago, Leggy said:

Midget, I accept that regular high doses of oral cobalt salts appear to be capable of causing levels in excess of the threshold. That has been shown in the Walkinshaw case as you note, also here in the O'Sullivan/Scott case, and possibly in the Moody case currently being deliberated, even though Dillo reports that "Moody's case has not been heard"! I note the expert witness in that case has changed his testimony from the chance of oral administration breaching the threshold being nigh impossible, to it being quite probable. We certainly have shifting scientific sands here on that issue.

The possibility that some sort of oral administration might produce levels above the threshold in this case is real but that's not what makes this story so fantastic. The idea that top class horses were running round a cow paddock drinking from cattle troughs that were known or should have been known to be dosed with cobalt salts is what I find incredible. And that for long enough to drink enough and close enough to race time to deliver levels three times the threshold. Very hard to believe and I feel sorry for the cattle that rely on that water source 24/7.

I didn't realise there were differences between cattle and horse paddocks nor cattle and horse troughs.  Do they have different grass?  Are the troughs more high class for horses than cattle?  

Now you might find it hard to believe but did Grierson and an independent scientific review indicate that the explanation was plausible?  I realise you are more into the social sciences at Massey rather than the biological sciences Leggy but I would have thought you would have academic access to studies on cobalt feed supplements.

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Leggy you're an intelligent man, you told me that so you'll appreciate that this boils down to Probable v. Possible, nothing more.

Ignore the persons involved, ignore the distractions such as the cows in the paddock, ignore what form the cobalt was in, ignore everything else and just ask yourself two questions.

1) Is it "possible" the three horses drank water with cobalt in it and this contributed to the elevated levels. The answer is an emphatic yes, it has to be, it can be no other answer based on all available evidence.

2. Is it "probable"....no it's not..,but as long as question #1 is in the affirmative #2 is insignificant when you're in a judicial hearing. 

That's as simple as this is, minus the bullshit and ignorance, and you know it.

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1 minute ago, Midget said:

Leggy you're an intelligent man, you told me that so you'll appreciate that this boils down to Probable v. Possible, nothing more.

Ignore the persons involved, ignore the distractions such as the cows in the paddock, ignore what form the cobalt was in, ignore everything else and just ask yourself two questions.

1) Is it "possible" the three horses drank water with cobalt in it and this contributed to the elevated levels. The answer is an emphatic yes, it has to be, it can be no other answer based on all available evidence.

2. Is it "probable"....no it's not..,but as long as question #1 is in the affirmative #2 is insignificant when you're in a judicial hearing. 

That's as simple as this is, minus the bullshit and ignorance, and you know it.

I agree. I think that's what I just said.

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6 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

I didn't realise there were differences between cattle and horse paddocks nor cattle and horse troughs.  Do they have different grass?  Are the troughs more high class for horses than cattle?  

The difference is that between cattle and horse mineral supplements and that commonly trainers restrict grass and other roughage intake immediately prior to races.

8 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

Now you might find it hard to believe but did Grierson and an independent scientific review indicate that the explanation was plausible? 

I'm not sure, but from the report I read, Grierson showed that high cobalt levels in water drunk by horses could lead to levels above the threshold. Whether that means the levels actually found or not, I don't know, and whether it was achieved with the same access to the cobalt dosed water as the horses in question had or not, I also don't know.

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Leggy...

You have hit the salient point, I believe. The wording that you have posted is very significant, in my opinion. I would like to see scientific evidence to support the "fact" that, in the circumstances outlined, the recorded levels could, actually, be achieved.

All the best.

Ashoka

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12 minutes ago, Leggy said:

The difference is that between cattle and horse mineral supplements and that commonly trainers restrict grass and other roughage intake immediately prior to races.

I'm not sure, but from the report I read, Grierson showed that high cobalt levels in water drunk by horses could lead to levels above the threshold. Whether that means the levels actually found or not, I don't know, and whether it was achieved with the same access to the cobalt dosed water as the horses in question had or not, I also don't know.

As Midget pointed out it doesn't really matter - they could have got elevated readings from unintentionally being given access to cobalt dosed water.  Seems a plausible defence.

You say trainers "commonly" restrict grass and other roughage intake immediately prior to races which infers that some don't.  For example Midget in his post about the two horses he took to Wairoa talks about leaving his horses in the paddock to get over the trip.  Presumably they had access to grass in the paddock.  

 

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1 hour ago, hesi said:

Yeah you ignorant plebs, go away and do your research, it's called Google.  Very handy, you can frame any debate you want to suit your end result

We are honoured to not only have a leading climate scientist, but also skilled biochemist post on here, those sort of people are rarely wrong.

 

:D :lol: :D

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24 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

  For example Midget in his post about the two horses he took to Wairoa talks about leaving his horses in the paddock to get over the trip.  Presumably they had access to grass in the paddock.  

 

Hardly any in Gizzy, it was dry as bone mostly ...  :( 

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2 hours ago, gubellini said:

mr-gee I think you are being a bit cynical.One of the horses I have a share in won at Matamata a fortnight ago. I don't know whether it was swabbed or not. If it did and returns a positive I will make a donation to the charity of your choice. My trainer is Graham Richardson. What is your connection to Wexford Stables?

i am  a owner   with them have had  black type  success  with this stable,  on a  number of times   , also  horses   over the  years   with other stables,   as  well as  overseas  and  high profile stables  as well  including   some with  ritchie ,   you got remember this  accidental mistake  could  happen to  anyone ,   so  just calm  down and realize how much it has  had   affected    the  trainers  no wonder they relived

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1 minute ago, Yorkielad said:

Hardly any in Gizzy, it was dry as bone mostly ...  :( 

Geez I hope Midget's horses didn't eat any of the selenium and cobalt deficient bare soil.

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8 minutes ago, mr_gee said:

i am  a owner   with them have had  black type  success  with this stable,  on a  number of times   , also  horses   over the  years   with other stables,   as  well as  overseas  and  high profile stables  as well  including   some with  ritchie ,   you got remember this  accidental mistake  could  happen to  anyone ,   so  just calm  down and realize how much it has  had   affected    the  trainers  no wonder they relived

I am more relieved that you are not a proof reader!!

Yes, accidents do happen, the fact that this appears to be anything but is what is so concerning.

But I guess the thought of the 'Royal family' of racing could be up to something dodgy is too much for the powers that be to think about.

# SweptUnderCarpet

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7 hours ago, gubellini said:

If this is the best defence that Wexfords high powered legal team can come up with I suggest the legal system in N.Z. is in a parlous state.

No , this is a very, very plausible submission that has avoided the heavy handed highbrow approach........ that you would expect from such a well armed and well connected defence team. The dumbing down ploy brings it closer to its being possible through its simplicity.

So the defendants now should be made to prove that these results could have been generated by such means. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Trump said:

Midget is correct. Leave the personalities out and look at the science. The limit of cobalt in the horses is set at 200 ok? It doesn't matter how it got there, if it's over, then it should be disqualified if it placed. That takes care of the owners who would know nothing about drugs or chemical etc in horses. Then there's the penalty for the Trainer - whatever that may be. All done. If a horse is over a prescribed limit then it's over - period. What I cannot understand is why the Derby placed horse in question has not been disqualified. If it was over the permitted 200 level in a post race swab (which it was)  then it should be disqualified. The powers that be have done racing no service IMO. If they had acted promptly and disq the horse then you would not have all this carrying about "favouritism" and protected species. The RIU or whoever is responsible has not done O'Sullivan and Scott any favours here. 

Well said!! Regardless of how the cobalt got there and the implications for the trainers,the horses were presented above the limit and should have been disqualified immediately this was known. Has the prizemoney for these races been paid out to connections of horses in question? If disqualified and prizemoney is paid to horses who will be promoted, and overdue by almost 12 months for this money, will they be paid out interest on it?

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1 hour ago, 2Admin2 said:

I didn't realise there were differences between cattle and horse paddocks nor cattle and horse troughs.  Do they have different grass?  Are the troughs more high class for horses than cattle?  

Now you might find it hard to believe but did Grierson and an independent scientific review indicate that the explanation was plausible?  I realise you are more into the social sciences at Massey rather than the biological sciences Leggy but I would have thought you would have academic access to studies on cobalt feed supplements.

And then there's aerial topdressing/ spraying to consider where chemical particles drift into troughs.

 

Anyone who has grown up or spent time in the countryside / farming / agricultural communities can tell others that one is advised to stay indoors when spraying is undertaken.

 

It's also of concern if cobalt has been found in troughs how it may impact on the health of those that undertake roles that are associated with it been placed there, e.g possible chemical impregnation in the pores of ones skin or respiratory systems.

 

Just another angle to be mindful of.

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Oh, and when and if did anyone at RIU learn that the cattle in the food chain [Milk] were full of cobalt? Did they then advise the authorities? If not, and those cows produced milk within a commercial diary someone at RIU could face very serious charges. Fonterra will be watching wont they? A scandal waiting to hit the news, China, repercussions, where's Nathan Guy? he'll need to make a statement, cmon Nathan, happy face mate.

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