Racing being destroyed, slowly

[Midget 4,489]

NZTR was told the handicapping model was flawed.

The architect was an Australian handicapper who'd lost his job.

The females allowances discourage males from participating, unless you're Benzini or El Chico.

Now Te Rapa has 7 races because the R85 had only 4 entries.

The industry statesman Brian Anderton is on Trackside this morning lamenting the disaster that is the R85 grade and the non existent opportunities for that 85 rated horse.

Meantime NZTR prove they just have no idea about handicapping by forcing the professional Dean Nowell out of his job and then appointing a series of less qualified persons, culminating in the tragic appointment of an accountant with an apparent gambling problem, and then passing the poison chalice to a youngish " Mr Fixit " in Matt Hall, in conjunction with a low achiever who was a modest and insignificant jumps jockey, and who cannot seem to decide how to treat identical cases.

Meantime the influential trainers who are on the Review Panel abuse their position and power by insisting horses cannot be brought into the handicap ( and that makes banding totally irrelevant ).

This is just a chaotic and catastrophic mess that's destroying the industry from the top down because idiots masquerading as know alls are applying a sick model that's designed, sanctioned and supported by a minority few who have a secret agenda, but who have NO grass roots knowledge of the industry and the damage they're doing.

Tommy Heptinstall, Michael Pitman, Brian Anderton, Murray Baker.....these guys have to be listened to.....it's time the independent board at NZTR was replaced in its entirety and the executive team orchestrating these septic policies is dismissed.

Rise up you all, express yourselves now and act with urgency before it's too late. 

 

[Leggy 4,084]

The handicappers of course can only implement the model which they mostly do in line with the template, some glaring examples aside. The issue that is causing the results we are now seeing is with the model, from which the data clearly shows that males, particularly older males, are seriously disadvantaged in handicaps and win at a disproportionately lower rate than they should. This discrepancy increased considerably subsequent to the change in the handicapping system that you note.

They were not only told, they agreed. In response to some analysis that you provided them via the trainers association the then chair of the board told me in August 2013 that if further analysis confirmed those initial findings they would look at changing the system to return those males to competitive levels more quickly and thereby sustain them in the racing population for longer. They asked us to do that further analysis which confirmed the earlier findings but absolutely nothing has been done.

Slowly but surely as you say, the rotten system has distorted the handicaps of the whole population to such an extent as we told them it was doing, that the inevitable results are now more evident than ever as you point out.

I'm not sure what more we can do if we "rise up". It is extremely frustrating to watch the resultant decay though.

[Midget 4,489]

The Trainers Assn should consider disruptive action ( not a strike ) until such time as the cause of all these problems is addressed.

[Hufkissen 65]

As a general course of action why doesn't everybody hassle their local MP.

The MP should then hassle the Minister until the Minister is forced to do something to stop them annoying him.

Far too easy for Minister to ignore the complaints issued here, it is just "one" channel/voice after all.

No good complaining to Minister directly, too easy for him to file it in the round file cabinet.

If every second MP is knocking his door down saying "do something to get these racing loonies off my back" it may be more effective.

To raise the bar a bit, have a standard letter/email outlining your concerns, that you send to your MP on a regular basis until action is taken.

I would of thought that with the geographical spread of Racecafe members, you should have most electorates covered.

Just a thought. Of course you would need consensus about the problems facing the industry and what action you want taken.

[Leggy 4,084]

31 minutes ago, Midget said:

The Trainers Assn should consider disruptive action ( not a strike ) until such time as the cause of all these problems is addressed.

Are you serious? I doubt the Trainers' Association could organise a bonk in a brothel.

[biff 2,158]

Knitting circle more like

[Midget 4,489]

And there's another rort.

Seems a bit mean to rain on their parade but what an unbelievable leg up The Diamond One has had from the handicapper.

Wins the listed $70,000 Cuddke Stakes four starts ago and doesn't get a single point, not a single point.. then has two misses and loses 2 points each time so it's won a black type race and is now 2kg better off in the handicap.

This campaign it's run twice for a 5th and a 2nd, gets one single point for that, then today wins another $70,000 black type race !!

That's four G3 wins in two years now for a total of 4 points penalty !!! ( today's penalty still to come of course ).

What chance have the male horses got ? this mare gets 2kg relief in two starts then gets another 2kg for being a female.....even the poor owners of Illuminati must be scratching their heads and screaming WTF !!.....

This is bordering on the bizarre and stinks of third world handicapping if not blatant corruption.

 

[rdytdy 5,343]

Just some points to ponder.

To be fair it was a pretty weak listed Cuddle Stakes. She was already rated at 101 before the Cuddle and she won by a half head and a long neck from horses with ratings of 78 and 79 respectively. 

At her next two starts she ran 15 of 16 in the NZ Thoroughbred Stakes and then 13 of 15 in the listed Great Easter Stakes and then spelled. Fresh up she ran 5th and stayed the same rating of 97 and then ran second going up 1 point. The winner who won by nearly 2 lengths went up 4 and the 3rd horse who was a half neck behind her stayed the same.  

She carried 55.5kgs when she won the race last year and 57.5kgs this year. 

 

[Midget 4,489]

Name all the other horses that've won a G3 worth $70k without getting a penalty, then been deducted four points in their next two starts.

Thanks.

[Guest 2Admin2]

Arguably when she won the Cuddle she raced below her rating comparative to the field.  Don't get fixated on it being a Group race or what the stake was.

[Midget 4,489]

I think I know what I'm talking about but thanks for the advice.

Tedipedia I'll give you a leg up. There isn't one, but there was a horse in the CD a couple of years ago trained by a bloke with no idea named Richard Joostens or a name like that.

The horse was called Bragato.

At one stage it lost 10 points within 6 race day starts, but no one could work out how that happened.

I'll let you speculate on how that Joostens bloke orchestrated that.

Unfortunately there appears to be different sets of rules for different horses and connections.

Ben Foote always gets treated badly, as does Tim Carter.

If you want the names of horse that've been abused by the handicapper check Spin Doctor or Farm Boy.

I could give you dozens of other examples but it might be a waste of time as you Ted couldn't understand the Pipi Beel scandal, that rather summed your understanding of handicapping up, but when that exact case was referred to the review expert by NZTR he concurred with me and recommended it be moved from an 85 to a 95.

That horse earnt it's 95 rating two full months ago, but as of today the NZTR employed expert's advice has been ignored and Pipi  Bell is still on an 85. She's a female.

I rest my case.

[Guest 2Admin2]

Well Prof Molloy if you know what you are talking about - if a Maiden horse had beaten The Diamond One in the Cuddle what points would each have got or lost?

[Insider 3,960]

5 hours ago, Leggy said:

Are you serious? I doubt the Trainers' Association could organise a bonk in a brothel.

 

5 hours ago, biff said:

Knitting circle more like

Next you guys will be telling me that the President of the Trainers cant train either. 

[Leggy 4,084]

You completely miss the point Insider. Training capability has nothing to do with ability to implement an effective organising model. Not that the NZTA seems to even have such a model. Midget is having a wet dream.

[Midget 4,489]

29 minutes ago, 2Admin2 said:

Well Prof Molloy if you know what you are talking about - if a Maiden horse had beaten The Diamond One in the Cuddle what points would each have got or lost?

You don't need anyone to tell you anything do you ? You claim to know it all and obviously you've had a lot of experience handicapping so you'll completely and comprehensively understand what "being brought into the handicap" is, and therein lies your answer, so I'm not sure why you bothered to ask.

[Guest 2Admin2]

31 minutes ago, Midget said:

You don't need anyone to tell you anything do you ? You claim to know it all and obviously you've had a lot of experience handicapping so you'll completely and comprehensively understand what "being brought into the handicap" is, and therein lies your answer, so I'm not sure why you bothered to ask.

I don't claim to know everything about handicapping - I haven't even claimed to know what I'm talking about as you have done.  I just asked a simple question and still await the answer.  However I reiterate that the handicapping system is or should be about relativity amongst competing horses - how much the stake is or if it is a Group race is irrelevant.

[Midget 4,489]

It depends who you beat and what's in the field, that's why it's called "bringing you into the handicap".

If a maidener won the Cuddle beating a field of maidens it'd arguably only go to a 65 (ish) but in a normal year it's going to get anything from a 92 to a 96.

Forget the theory and focus on the horses being abused and you'll see my point.

Illuminato ( Ben Foote ) is on a 98, the exact same as The Diamond One.

They met today.

They've both won 8 races.

One has won about 250, the other 140.

One has won 4 group 3 races, the other has never won a black type race and has only been black type placed once.

Illuminate has claimed an allowance in 6 of its 8 wins, it's an honest little mare that's being abused for reasons only NZTR understand, whereas The Diamond One is being treated in an extraordinarily lenient manner.

Can you help me understand how The Diamond One and Illuminati are both on a 98 rating ??

[rdytdy 5,343]

Back inside after doing the paddocks and after dinner this took me two minutes to find.

Soriano:

Won the G1 Zabeel Classic got two points going from R103 to R105.

Next start runs second in the G1 Thorndon Mile stays at R105

Next start wins the G1 Herbie Dyke Stakes worth $300,000 (and as you put it, doesn't get a single point, not one single point) and still on 105.

So  wins 2 G1 races and 2nd in the other and only up 2 points after winning the first.

Then runs 5th in the G1 Haunui goes down 1 point and then finishes 8th in the G1 New Zealand Stakes drops another 2 points.

Comments thanks. 

 

 

[Midget 4,489]

You must have hit your head recently Tedipedia.

I asked when a horse had won a G3 and then been deducted 2+2 it's next two starts.

2+2 is still 4 isn't it ? or did Soriano lose 2+1=4 ?

Is there a five year old in your neighborhood who can help you understand what I actually asked ?

Now I accept that you're having difficult with anything other than your colouring in book but how about you read my comments about Illuminati and The Diamond One and give us your expert opinion on that, and please, the next time you put your hand up can you try to have the right answer, just for a change.

Thanks.

[rdytdy 5,343]

I can't be bothered.

I just gave you an example of a horse winning a $300,000 G1 race without incurring a point, the same as The Diamond One when winning the G3 Cuddle Stakes which you seemed to have a problem with. My post was in response to that which I has read earlier not to later posts which I had not read. By the way Soriano beat a R101 horse in Nashville also, not a R78 horse as The Diamond One did. 

I note that you made no comment on Soriano getting not one point.   

[Midget 4,489]

If it's maxed up to its ultimate potential it shouldn't get a point Tedipedia, that's how the system works FFS, but if it's still on the 'up' it has to be given a penalty ( within reason ).

Yet again you prove you have no idea about handicapping.

It's of considerable interest that you bring Soriano's name up though, and I gave you a horse of Dick Joostens as an example of a horse treated very favorably. Perhaps the key to it is to throw your support behind NZTR then you get treated differently...just saying.....

[rdytdy 5,343]

Which exactly is the point both myself and 2Admin2 were trying to get through to you in relation to The Diamond One not getting any points for the Cuddle win. 

Have a good night.

 

 

[Midget 4,489]

In which case you're missing the point, again.

I'm saying it's better than a 101 rated horse so it should never have been deducted 4 points immediately after the Cuddle win.

Had it been given two points for the Cuddle win, and then deducted four over its next two starts, my argument is weakened considerably.

Hence it keeps winning G3 races.

Now do as you're told, put the crayons down for a bit and tell us all why Illiminati ( who's never won a black type race ) is rated the same as a horse who's won 4 group threes.

You know everything, share your knowledge please Tedipedia.

[Guest 2Admin2]

They're only Grp 3 races in name not quality. 

[Midget 4,489]

Sort of agree with that but they're NI and SI so you can presume they reflect the NZ standard.

Please tell me about Illuminati though, I'd really like you to rationalize and explain that to me.