RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
biff

Whats Rogie smoking?

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On 23/01/2016 at 6:32 PM, Shad said:

Crickey biff, your a tough rooster. Wouldn't read to much into Mr Rodgersons comments. But dont  be to tough on a man that has just about achieved everything possible in racing. Has put a huge amount into racing over the years.

Rogie could go head to head with all on this site and would come out streets ahead of most and for the few that could logically debate with him, would at least come out even. He has achieved just about everything possible within this industry, has huge respect, wears his heart on his sleeve, has got more new participants into racing than almost anyone else. He is flamboyant, expressive, fun, maybe at times a little extravagant, but a dumb man he is most definitely not. We could do with a few more Rogie's, well done that man.

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9 hours ago, biff said:

Roughly 40% of the horses traded at Karaka yesterday are going offshore, probably more once the pass in's are paid for, great export dollars, but the domestic market will pay the price. Of course the domestic horses will also be contenders to be traded later in the year at the ready to run, plus the 'performers' from this sale will also disappear.....today will be no exception.

Perhaps if we rivalled Oz stakes wise or even got close, if we provided the conditions like, incentives and starters bonus's to encourage owners, new owners, to race here, our good horses would remain, our outstanding young yearlings could grow into great Kiwi athletes, what a great world [racing] we would have.......when I look at the smug dial on Mr Guy at Karaka, what a hide to even turn up there, I feel sick in the pit of my belly, I bet a lot of you do too. 

I am sorry but did you actually read what you submitted? If over 40% of those horses didn't go offshore our whole industry, starting with the breeding industry, would collapse. So many races are sponsored by studs, who wouldn't put a cent into sponsorship if that 40% offshore didn't occur. I have yet to get to the most outragous comment "...rivalled Oz stakes wise or even got close"....that can not and will never happen, we are a small country of 4.5m people or similar, that can never think about rivalling Oz in stakes. 

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19 minutes ago, Jefferson said:

Rogie could go head to head with all on this site and would come out streets ahead of most and for the few that could logically debate with him, would at least come out even. He has achieved just about everything possible within this industry, has huge respect, wears his heart on his sleeve, has got more new participants into racing than almost anyone else. He is flamboyant, expressive, fun, maybe at times a little extravagant, but a dumb man he is most definitely not. We could do with a few more Rogie's, well done that man.

Great call Jefferson

He talked us into a horse we never in a million of years would've got involved in. Best sales pitch I've ever had - and the most fun. We've since won races (including a group 3), raced at Ellerslie/Riccarton and Trentham in the Cup carnivals, and most importantly had a lot of fun and met some great people.And Rogie will always take a phone call and have a chat and organise tickets for us, get beers etc etc - and I am a tiny owner compared to most of his.

Genuine champion bloke

 

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2 hours ago, Jefferson said:

I am sorry but did you actually read what you submitted? If over 40% of those horses didn't go offshore our whole industry, starting with the breeding industry, would collapse. So many races are sponsored by studs, who wouldn't put a cent into sponsorship if that 40% offshore didn't occur. I have yet to get to the most outragous comment "...rivalled Oz stakes wise or even got close"....that can not and will never happen, we are a small country of 4.5m people or similar, that can never think about rivalling Oz in stakes. 

Is that you Fasthorse? Certainly reads like you, outrageous you say, NZ is the same size population wise as QLD and bigger than SA, use your brains, they can race for those stakes that dwarf ours, as for the breeders selling offshore, it's not to help the domestic industry, it's for their bottom line, the sale tomorrow will be no different, it's the festival sale that the grass roots trainer and owner aim for, if I ever had to sell at the festival sale I'd rather shoot myself Fasthorse/Jeff

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1 hour ago, chelseacol said:

Great call Jefferson

He talked us into a horse we never in a million of years would've got involved in. Best sales pitch I've ever had - and the most fun. We've since won races (including a group 3), raced at Ellerslie/Riccarton and Trentham in the Cup carnivals, and most importantly had a lot of fun and met some great people.And Rogie will always take a phone call and have a chat and organise tickets for us, get beers etc etc - and I am a tiny owner compared to most of his.

Genuine champion bloke

 

That might be right Col, but I don't want Rogie speaking for me. His agenda does not suit mine, especially when he spruiks tripe. 

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On 1/25/2016 at 11:18 AM, biff said:

Roughly 40% of the horses traded at Karaka yesterday are going offshore, probably more once the pass in's are paid for, great export dollars, but the domestic market will pay the price. Of course the domestic horses will also be contenders to be traded later in the year at the ready to run, plus the 'performers' from this sale will also disappear.....today will be no exception.

Perhaps if we rivalled Oz stakes wise or even got close, if we provided the conditions like, incentives and starters bonus's to encourage owners, new owners, to race here, our good horses would remain, our outstanding young yearlings could grow into great Kiwi athletes, what a great world [racing] we would have.......when I look at the smug dial on Mr Guy at Karaka, what a hide to even turn up there, I feel sick in the pit of my belly, I bet a lot of you do too. 

Some "xcellent" points raised here biff. Unsure how we could rival oz stakes but as they say Rome wasn't built in a day. 100% agree with starters bonuses, incentives to attract new owners to the industry. Probably a naive suggestion but as the majority of horses are maidens and will always remain a maiden. and although you wouldn't want to detract from the quality of racing,why not potentially increase stakes for maiden races?? more horses are maidens, meaning more owners own those horses and would be more likely to re invest or at least stay in the game longer if through either better stakes or incentives that their training bill of say $2500 a month only cost them $2000. 

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20 minutes ago, biff said:

Is that you Fasthorse? Certainly reads like you, outrageous you say, NZ is the same size population wise as QLD and bigger than SA, use your brains, they can race for those stakes that dwarf ours, as for the breeders selling offshore, it's not to help the domestic industry, it's for their bottom line, the sale tomorrow will be no different, it's the festival sale that the grass roots trainer and owner aim for, if I ever had to sell at the festival sale I'd rather shoot myself Fasthorse/Jeff

Qld racing is not the greatest example is it Biff?.

I thought there racing was in the financial shit and a bloody shambles or have I got that wrong?.

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29 minutes ago, biff said:

Is that you Fasthorse? Certainly reads like you, outrageous you say, NZ is the same size population wise as QLD and bigger than SA, use your brains, they can race for those stakes that dwarf ours, as for the breeders selling offshore, it's not to help the domestic industry, it's for their bottom line, the sale tomorrow will be no different, it's the festival sale that the grass roots trainer and owner aim for, if I ever had to sell at the festival sale I'd rather shoot myself Fasthorse/Jeff

Good points you make about Vic, NSW and Qld, except our 4.5m population is spread North Cape to Bluff with many race tracks dotted everywhere. Look how many major tracks in each of those OZ states and how close the total populations of each are to those main tracks. 

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30 minutes ago, MiDeBo Racing said:

Some "xcellent" points raised here biff. Unsure how we could rival oz stakes but as they say Rome wasn't built in a day. 100% agree with starters bonuses, incentives to attract new owners to the industry. Probably a naive suggestion but as the majority of horses are maidens and will always remain a maiden. and although you wouldn't want to detract from the quality of racing,why not potentially increase stakes for maiden races?? more horses are maidens, meaning more owners own those horses and would be more likely to re invest or at least stay in the game longer if through either better stakes or incentives that their training bill of say $2500 a month only cost them $2000. 

Well, you have a point regarding maidens, but let me enlighten you, K2500 for a month? you need to add to that if your horse is going to a leading trainer and the raceday costs and incidentals will take you past K3500........the starters bonus is mandatory, the clown fool that lost the industry that should be driven from the country!

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19 minutes ago, Jefferson said:

Good points you make about Vic, NSW and Qld, except our 4.5m population is spread North Cape to Bluff with many race tracks dotted everywhere. Look how many major tracks in each of those OZ states and how close the total populations of each are to those main tracks. 

Send me your email and I'll email you a map of Queensland, don't go there......I trained in Victoria and NSW, and trained winners in 3 states.......I'm angry that you buggers have let NZ racing come to this, it's damn disgusting.

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44 minutes ago, MiDeBo Racing said:

Some "xcellent" points raised here biff. Unsure how we could rival oz stakes but as they say Rome wasn't built in a day. 100% agree with starters bonuses, incentives to attract new owners to the industry. Probably a naive suggestion but as the majority of horses are maidens and will always remain a maiden. and although you wouldn't want to detract from the quality of racing,why not potentially increase stakes for maiden races?? more horses are maidens, meaning more owners own those horses and would be more likely to re invest or at least stay in the game longer if through either better stakes or incentives that their training bill of say $2500 a month only cost them $2000. 

I can be slow, but if to quote you "...majority of horses are maidens and will always remain a maiden", how will increasing stakes on maiden races help the owners of these horses?

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39 minutes ago, barryb said:

Qld racing is not the greatest example is it Biff?.

I thought there racing was in the financial shit and a bloody shambles or have I got that wrong?.

Baz, they could be up shit creek without a paddle and still play us off a break, their situation came about due to internal issues, The Brisbane Racing Club for instance, however even with all the kak happening they still race for 50, 60k and even if the heavens open and God swallows them, they'll still race for heaps more than us, and pay the owners up to 1k to start and pay the jock and turn on a wonderful spread in the owners bar........as for VIC, don't start me, Moonee Valley are the benchmark, the owners experience there is world class, ATC are way behind, but still a country mile in front of here, and as I have said on here until my nose bled, look after the owner and he'll look after you.......give him an incentive to race a horse and he'll race two, you burn him [like these clowns here are doing] and fields will eventually collapse.

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8 minutes ago, Jefferson said:

I can be slow, but if to quote you "...majority of horses are maidens and will always remain a maiden", how will increasing stakes on maiden races help the owners of these horses?

It will help overall in getting owners back into racing because stakes filter down to more earnings for first to fourth.  It will also make it more lucrative for smaller stables and those hobby trainers to get more involved that want to own and train because the chances of them actually making some sort of payback or living from it is increased.

If you can't encourage the grass roots to grow then you have to continually add fodder for the top feeders - no economy can survive like that so what will happen is that you will only get big stables providing runners and eventually as those horses move up the ranks, they will move to greener pastures like Aussie and Asia.

 

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23 minutes ago, biff said:

50 to a 100 Shad, Gold, Silver and Bronze, you get generally what you pay for.

Shad

Refer to the stats on NZ racing, Some of the so called Gold Trainers their stats are nowhere near where their fee suggests they should be.

Now you CANNOT use s/r as its a poor indicator of ability, you need to use a formula to establish Actual to Expected, this is based around the starting price of the horse.

ie: a $2 shot in theory should salute 50% of the time, therefore its expected is 50% but what did it actually do?.

Trainers who get close to the Expected return are the ones to get alongside, some of Biffs (& plenty of others) Gold Standard ones are not with-in a bulls roar.

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14 minutes ago, barryb said:

Shad

Refer to the stats on NZ racing, Some of the so called Gold Trainers their stats are nowhere near where their fee suggests they should be.

Now you CANNOT use s/r as its a poor indicator of ability, you need to use a formula to establish Actual to Expected, this is based around the starting price of the horse.

ie: a $2 shot in theory should salute 50% of the time, therefore its expected is 50% but what did it actually do?.

Trainers who get close to the Expected return are the ones to get alongside, some of Biffs (& plenty of others) Gold Standard ones are not with-in a bulls roar.

Ahh Baz, but you do not know who my gold standard ones are, except for the SI one maybe?

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No I don't Biff, & judging by your South Island one then I would say you are very astute at figuring out who is worth placing a horse with.

Like a lot of things in this world price is often a poor indicator of the performance of something. More must come into the equation that $.

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Thanks for the info all. Just wonder about sum of the trainers today. A friend had a share in a horse won race  over 2000m.Previous to this had 3 lead up races well spaced.  Had a spell for about 3 weeks then was back in work for  10 days then raced in another 2000m race. I dont know much about training horses but seemed very short amount work before a distace race. Any thoughts on this 

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Horses are like humans shad. all take different amounts of work to get up to peak fitness and keep fitness. You might have heard trainers say a horse is "very clean winded" which in a round about way means they hold fitness so they dont take alot of work to get up to race day fitness...... i think :) sure others will be able to enlighten you further.

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