RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Bimbo

Captain Cook Stakes

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No use moaning now...you,ve got to read the race the way you see it panning out, taking everything into account...Barrier draws,racing pattern,

track and distance stats, Trainers & Jockeys stats etc... You can be lazy and watch KFE and Co. on Sat morn, but I suggest all you end up with is top 4 favs.

Then after all is said and done, You have good and bad days...That,s just the nature of the sport we love. 

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On 4/12/2015, 3:13:53, Bimbo said:

Would have to agree that at the current odds available Julinsky Prince is the value.  Got 2.20 for Kawi so that's the value for me now.

Saw some of Weigh In and Matt Cameron said Sakhees Soldier was going to the race on his recommendation.  You'd have to wonder if he could teach Murray Baker (looks to have an idea or two on training) too much, but it will be interesting to see how he goes.

You nailed that Bimbo. Both paragraphs.

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28 minutes ago, gubellini said:

GONSTA bemused by your quote last Thursday that Kawi WINS FOR FUN! Do you want me to buy you a pedal bin for Christmas to deposit your losing tickets in!

Lol your a sad old git that's for sure... At least I had an opinion BEFORE the race. I for one never expected to see a G1 race in NZ run in 1:38.73 on a dead 4 track, now that's embarrassing!! Was an absolute joke of a race and if you can't understand that then you must be a troll. 

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Stop it Gub And Gonsta...It,s not an exact science this punting game...too many variables...(pace,barriers,weight drop or rise,track bias and condition,

course and distance stats,jockey and trainer strike rates)

I thought Kawi would blow them away as well,(along with half the country) However as mentioned, never going well , too far back on a front running bias and the winner was in a nice spot given a perfect ride,by a top jock! Game over...I like value and will never back anything paying under about $4...prefer to leave race. (will chuck em in trebs).

Hate seeing a good horse go down like that though ...sometimes don,t come back, hope not the case here and he comes out and wins next up...

Every horse allowed an off day and he wasn,t the only one in the race affected by the muddling pace. I thought Kawi was  bolting and jock had a handful

underneath him before the turn and was in two minds whether to take off then...didnt...Birds had flown...who knows?   

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4 minutes ago, Bimbo said:

Maybe Lisa would suit this Kawi horse.

not getting into picking riders for owners and trainers Bimbo...

Sam Spratt done it ok at Hastings in front on Addictive Habit, then carried the grandstand to come from back in Couplands,.Thats versatile!

Leiths very good in the saddle,  But maybe he could have talked to Sam.   

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Thanks Porky. Words of wisdom. This is my take on Kawi's demise. Too win at Group One level a horse has to inhale at least 1200 litres of air per minute to be competitive.Kawi raced with his head up in the air for several hundred metres. At the 400 metres he went into oxygen debt lost his galloping action and started to run around. When he learns to settle he will win again.

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Yes Bimbo. Most ride on a beautiful long rein which helps the horse to settle. I backed Kawi at Tauranga and was satisfied with his run. He overraced in that race and that set of alarm bells for me and I suspected he might do so again in the Captain Cook so didn't back him.

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12 minutes ago, bloke said:

As an aside there was a  very good atmosphere at Trentham yesterday. I went into the ground floor of the public stand and it was full, reminded me of the good old days.

 

See you 16th jan for the Telegraph, Bloke...Cpl mates and I down for good times...any offers greatfully accepted...LOL 

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3 hours ago, gubellini said:

Thanks Porky. Words of wisdom. This is my take on Kawi's demise. Too win at Group One level a horse has to inhale at least 1200 litres of air per minute to be competitive.Kawi raced with his head up in the air for several hundred metres. At the 400 metres he went into oxygen debt lost his galloping action and started to run around. When he learns to settle he will win again.

 

That's interesting, I haven't heard those figures ( 1200 l/min ) quoted before.

The theory seems sound enough though.

Is that scientific or did you just hear that somewhere ?

 

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Sorry folks but I just don't get the following that Kawi has - strikes me as the most overrated horse to race in this country for many a while. Backed and beaten on so many occasions and some of his runs have been very ordinary. Can't win at 1600 and I sit back in hysterics when his trainer(also in the overrated club) starts spouting off about taking him to Melbourne for the Australia Cup - laughable as he wouldn't get within 5L of the winner let alone staying 2,000 metres when he struggles to get past 1,400. 

However when it comes to ratings - Parkes and Auret showed the racing fraternity what it takes - two of the most talented professionals in the game. Good also to see Parkes stick it up them after losing the ride on Kawi through his suspension. Pity the owners of Kawi also with having to suffer the "talents" of Innes.

The Kawi team need to stick to winning nothing races in their Taranaki backyard and leave the big races in the Metropolitan regions to the real winners.

 

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