Arden Rooney

[jimsmith 224]

Just recently you could get $22 on Arden Rooney for the NZ Cup. Was that value? Last time I looked he was at $16.

Today he goes around a short priced fav in the Kaikoura Cup. If he wins what will his price drop to in the NZ Cup? Would it be prudent to grab a piece of that?

Ok Arden Rooney has not beaten much lately but all he can do is win and he did that with bells on. Worked during his races and ran his opposition into the ground. He will be super fit and ready for the Cup. Must be remembered he won the Group One Hunter Cup over 3280 metres in February. Christen Me was fourth in that race.

It's a big deal that Arden Rooney is here for the Cup and he's obviously a horse that can work and still be there at the finish. Manning will have seen what Adore Me did last year in the Cup and will know what Arden Rooney will need to do to win it this year. Despite that she's come anyway. Right horse. Right breeding. Right form. Right trainer / driver.

Christen Me is my pick for the Cup despite not going around in The Flying Stakes. Right horse. Right trainer. Right driver. Won't be the first time the trainer has skipped an important lead up race only to then come out and win the big one. I feel he will come back into clear fav after the Cup Trial. The $5 he's at now is VERY appealing. The right Christen Me could start at half that quote.

Personally I can't see Tiger Tara winning the cup. Place chance best based on form,ability and obvious fitness. Sky Major is an enigma to me. Horse clearly has the ability,is approaching 100% peak fitness,has a superb driver and is trained by a master but 3.60 FF is ridiculous to my eye. Good enough to win the Cup but couldn't get close to fourth placed Tiger Tara at Ashburton who worked big time and look who he beat home. Lewy Risk,Bit Of A Legend,Delightful Dash etc etc. Would you consider any of those realistic chances in the Cup? Wouldn't be surprised to see Sky Major win the Cup but he's no value and I'm happy to lay him.

Smolda is the obvious danger to Christen Me in the Cup. Horse in peak form and peak fitness. The All Stars know exactly what it takes to win the Cup more than most. I can see a Mark Purdon connection with what I believe will be the first four horses home in the Cup.

1st  Christen Me

2nd  Arden Rooney

3rd  Smolda

4th  Sky Major

[Toblerone 242]

Not sure if you are serious with this post. Save your money on Christen Me, he won't be starting.

Sky Major's run was superb. Not sure what you expected of him given they ran the last half in 53.1 off the front and he came from well back in the field.

An enigma? no way. Just a stallion that came back big in condition and needed racing. He will be winning the Cup.

[Mardy 475]

I'm not a massive fan of the horse but Sky Major does seem to be ticking over nicely for the Cup.He was doing some good work late in the Flying Stakes last week,and let's be honest he's trained by a man who knows a thing or two about winning a NZ Cup,he definitely can't be overlooked.

[jimsmith 224]

Thank you for the update on Christen Me. I wasn't aware he had already been withdrawn from the Cup. Is still showing at 5.50 in Futures betting so the TAB also unaware at this stage. Yes I was serious. Had every faith in the horse,the trainer and the driver.

I see Arden Rooney is now at $10.

As for Sky Major. When I said "enigma" I did say an enigma to me. I appreciate others like yourself are very confident. Good luck if you've already got on and at a decent price. I maintain the $3.60 on him is way too short. The 53 last half at Ashburton is impressive so Sky Major who made up a few lengths on the front runners must have gone 52 odd. That is quick anywhere but to be fair some of the final sectionals at Ashburton were very flattering. The track camber and tail wind saw times that I believe could be a little misleading. Art Union ran it's final half in 54 in the last race. Not sure what Have Faith In Me clocked but it's last half must have blown the socks off Art Unions 54.

These horses are going faster and faster so I'm hesitant to put all my faith in them. I have backed Sky Major in his last two Jewels victories and was very confident in both. I expected more from the horse in it's last two Auckland runs. His 4th first up on October 1st was just a run. Even Besotted beat him home.

Same two weeks later deadheating for third behind Risk. I expected him to run right over Risk. I appreciate he had bigger fish to fry but Risk is a ways from being a NZ Cup type horse in my opinion. Of course the horse was not at peak fitness but I still expected more.

The Ashburton run was very solid but as I said previously look at what he beat home. Horses that are no hope in the Cup. Tiger Tara did a stack of work at Ashburton and still finished a length in front of Sky Major.

I think you are right to believe Sky Major will be there at the finish in the Cup but I haven't seen enough to believe the horse is a good thing and that 3.60 is a good price. Looks more like a $6.00 chance to my eye. $4.50 if Christen Me a definite non starter.

[Basil 333]

Last week we had the good oil on HC that Christen Me had worked sensationally at home.  Now we hear he definitely won't be starting.  Who knows what to believe.

I agree that Sky Major seems too short.  His runs this time in have looked promising, but he'd need to improve several lengths on what we've seen so far to win the cup.  Not saying he can't do it, but I'd need a bit more value to convince me to liberate a few moths from my wallet.

At this stage, I think I'd prefer both Tiger Tara and Ohoka Punter to Arden Rooney.  Maybe shifting to Oz has worked the oracle with the latter, but on the basis of what we've previously seen in NZ he'd be a few lengths behind the other two (Hunter Cup victory notwithstanding).  Of course, I could change my mind after Kaikoura today!

[MisterEd 328]

13 hours ago, jimsmith said:

Just recently you could get $22 on Arden Rooney for the NZ Cup. Was that value? Last time I looked he was at $16.

Today he goes around a short priced fav in the Kaikoura Cup. If he wins what will his price drop to in the NZ Cup? Would it be prudent to grab a piece of that?

Ok Arden Rooney has not beaten much lately but all he can do is win and he did that with bells on. Worked during his races and ran his opposition into the ground. He will be super fit and ready for the Cup. Must be remembered he won the Group One Hunter Cup over 3280 metres in February. Christen Me was fourth in that race.

It's a big deal that Arden Rooney is here for the Cup and he's obviously a horse that can work and still be there at the finish. Manning will have seen what Adore Me did last year in the Cup and will know what Arden Rooney will need to do to win it this year. Despite that she's come anyway. Right horse. Right breeding. Right form. Right trainer / driver.

Christen Me is my pick for the Cup despite not going around in The Flying Stakes. Right horse. Right trainer. Right driver. Won't be the first time the trainer has skipped an important lead up race only to then come out and win the big one. I feel he will come back into clear fav after the Cup Trial. The $5 he's at now is VERY appealing. The right Christen Me could start at half that quote.

Personally I can't see Tiger Tara winning the cup. Place chance best based on form,ability and obvious fitness. Sky Major is an enigma to me. Horse clearly has the ability,is approaching 100% peak fitness,has a superb driver and is trained by a master but 3.60 FF is ridiculous to my eye. Good enough to win the Cup but couldn't get close to fourth placed Tiger Tara at Ashburton who worked big time and look who he beat home. Lewy Risk,Bit Of A Legend,Delightful Dash etc etc. Would you consider any of those realistic chances in the Cup? Wouldn't be surprised to see Sky Major win the Cup but he's no value and I'm happy to lay him.

Smolda is the obvious danger to Christen Me in the Cup. Horse in peak form and peak fitness. The All Stars know exactly what it takes to win the Cup more than most. I can see a Mark Purdon connection with what I believe will be the first four horses home in the Cup.

1st  Christen Me

2nd  Arden Rooney

3rd  Smolda

4th  Sky Major

Arden Rooney now  great chance to win the Cup after his run today...Messini also a chance on todays run  

[cantab matt 134]

Christen me... Out of cup 

[Toblerone 242]

Arden Rooney now at $6.... despite me steadfastly not agreeing with the majority of your opening post, I doff my hat to you for identifying the value in this morning's price.

[Royal Ascot 13]

Anyone at the Cup Trials today? I see Sky Major beat Ohoka Punter and I kinda liked the latter horse - in what is now becoming a very even field - and despite the Franco Nelson knockers I would still rate him half a chance......looking forward to Cup Day. The moths will be liberated Basil!!

 

 

[globederby12 1,495]

Well after all this my instincts tell me that little Messini after a last half 53 in the Kaikoura Cup will be right on song for the Cup. My early money was on Te Kawau come Cup time ,but he is clearly not right yet. Smolda looks the logical choise after Christan Me was withdrawn but this race is wide open really. At 6.50 I will have plenty on Messini, and hope Rasmussen is cleared to drive. Chris Alford will fill in if Natalie isn,t fit, but by all accounts the tough old bird should be ok.

Shouldbe a great days racing, with one of ours in the 1rst to boot.

[Ashoka 1,179]

globederby12...

All the very best with yours on Cup Day.

Chris Alford...up with the best of the best as a driver, and he must be good in the "room", after THAT ID Final...

All the best.

Ashoka

[globederby12 1,495]

3 hours ago, Ashoka said:

globederby12...

All the very best with yours on Cup Day.

Chris Alford...up with the best of the best as a driver, and he must be good in the "room", after THAT ID Final...

All the best.

Ashoka

Thanks Ashoka, for the life of me I can not remember if Alford has ever driven at Addington?. I would prefer Nats actually . Maybe someone out there can enlighten us. Only just got the brain cells down to a manageable level, memory takes a back seat nowadays

 

[cantab matt 134]

think he was on Golden Reign???

[Ashoka 1,179]

globederby12...

Chris Alford drove Golden Reign through the 1995 Interdominion Series, including the controversial Final, after which there was an enquiry regarding possible interference to Blossom Lady et al by Golden Reign. Some people (including me) feel he was lucky to keep that race. C'est la vie.

All the best.

Ashoka

[Ashoka 1,179]

I should add that I think that Chris Alford is one of the best drivers that Australasia has ever produced.

That said, I agree with globederby12...Natalie Rasmussen is the better prospect as Messini's driver as she would know the horse well as well as knowing exactly where the horse is in it's mind and body. That, and the fact that Ms Rasmussen is an excellent driver in her own right and no shrinking violet when the pressure goes on, as it always does in races such as the New Zealand Cup.

All the best.

Ashoka

[Basil 333]

47 minutes ago, Ashoka said:

globederby12...

Chris Alford drove Golden Reign through the 1995 Interdominion Series, including the controversial Final, after which there was an enquiry regarding possible interference to Blossom Lady et al by Golden Reign. Some people (including me) feel he was lucky to keep that race. C'est la vie.

 

That was back in the good ol' days at Addington when (i) there was a public stand and (ii) there weren't tents and a massive TV screen in the middle of the course, so it was possible to see what happened in races. 

The official line was that Blossom Lady broke free of interference and severely checked Master Musician (who staged an outstanding recovery, suggesting he may have been a certainty beaten).  That being the case, I've always wondered why Blossom Lady wasn't required to 'trial satisfactorily' before being allowed to race again, that being the usual punishment for such behaviour at the time.  That this didn't happen always seemed a bit curious to me, but, as you say, it's all water under the bridge now.

[globederby12 1,495]

Thanks for that Guys, you are right. I should have remembered.

[Lee270744 684]

Natalie is cleared to drive so she will be on Messini , Chase the Dream, Willow,and Golden Goddess.

[jimsmith 224]

On 11/2/2015, 11:30:35, Toblerone said:

Not sure if you are serious with this post. Save your money on Christen Me, he won't be starting.

Sky Major's run was superb. Not sure what you expected of him given they ran the last half in 53.1 off the front and he came from well back in the field.

An enigma? no way. Just a stallion that came back big in condition and needed racing. He will be winning the Cup.

Evidently I was serious despite your attempt to treat my perspective with contempt again. Please remind me where Arden Rooney finished in the NZ Cup yesterday and what he paid? Just in case you were just too busy to notice he won and paid $7.80.

You adamantly declared Sky Major would be winning the Cup. I spoke of not being overly impressed with Sky Major this time in. I was at the park when he couldn't even get past "Risk" . I also believe the time you raved about Sky Major running at Ashburton was flattering and deceiving. Ashburton is a fast track. The camber of the track and the prevailing tail wind on the day produced quick final sectionals. The bottom line for me was Sky Major only beat non cup contenders home and wasn't able to get past Tiger Tara who did considerably more work than him. Despite that you know best.... Remind me where Sky Major ran in the NZ Cup yesterday. He ran 11th over ten lengths from Arden Rooney. Even Choice Achiever and Corzin Terror beat him home. I'm sure there were excuses but last time I looked the TAB don't pay out on excuses.

Hope you cleaned up yesterday on the next contemptible message winner you ridiculed me with. Sunny Ruby. You will have noticed my pick I was very confident with won by over 13 lengths. Your ridiculing tip was only 29 lengths behind Prince Fearless. How quick would you have returned on here had Sunny Ruby and Sky Major won yesterday?

Don't give up your day job.

[Toblerone 242]

There is nothing worse than someone like you who seems to get off on skiting.

Your opening post labelled Christen Me as the winner of the Cup and Sky Major, a five-time Group 1 winner, as an enigma because he could not get past Risk in a race where he ran the fastest last mile, half and quarter. You then hedged your bets by saying you would not be surprised to see Sky Major win the New Zealand Cup. 
"Not sure if you are serious" was a clear reference to you thinking Christen Me was any chance in the New Zealand Cup when he was CLEARLY not in a good state.

I came on and called you out on two things - one that Christen Me was your top bet and two, that Sky Major was an enigma. I said Christen Me would not be starting and 8 hours later the announcement was made as such. Around that same time I came on here and applauded you for for accurately identifying Arden Rooney as value before the Kaikoura Cup. So don't you dare accuse me of being a one-track-minded sniper. Nowhere did I discredit your claims about Arden Rooney. If I did, point it out to me.

Sky Major pulled a flat/non-functioning tyre for the last 900 metres yesterday, hence why he stopped. It was a non-event for him and the driver was clear after the race that until the point Messini ruined his chances, he was right in it. Is that accurate? who knows. That is punting. Sure, I labelled him. But I am confident that I would have been right had the unfortunate not happened. I have the courage of my convictions in that regard.

Unfortunately Jim Smith, you let yourself down here with your arrogant follow-up this morning. It is unbecoming of a forumsman. These are discussion boards for people to share differences of opinion, not belittle and insult other members.
Obviously you know your stuff and are articulate, but you have a very obvious character flaw for us all to see and in the long term that will act to your detriment. 
Good day.

 

[jimsmith 224]

15 minutes ago, Toblerone said:

There is nothing worse than someone like you who seems to get off on skiting.

Your opening post labelled Christen Me as the winner of the Cup and Sky Major, a five-time Group 1 winner, as an enigma because he could not get past Risk in a race where he ran the fastest last mile, half and quarter. You then hedged your bets by saying you would not be surprised to see Sky Major win the New Zealand Cup. 
"Not sure if you are serious" was a clear reference to you thinking Christen Me was any chance in the New Zealand Cup when he was CLEARLY not in a good state.

I came on and called you out on two things - one that Christen Me was your top bet and two, that Sky Major was an enigma. I said Christen Me would not be starting and 8 hours later the announcement was made as such. Around that same time I came on here and applauded you for for accurately identifying Arden Rooney as value before the Kaikoura Cup. So don't you dare accuse me of being a one-track-minded sniper. Nowhere did I discredit your claims about Arden Rooney. If I did, point it out to me.

Sky Major pulled a flat/non-functioning tyre for the last 900 metres yesterday, hence why he stopped. It was a non-event for him and the driver was clear after the race that until the point Messini ruined his chances, he was right in it. Is that accurate? who knows. That is punting. Sure, I labelled him. But I am confident that I would have been right had the unfortunate not happened. I have the courage of my convictions in that regard.

Unfortunately Jim Smith, you let yourself down here with your arrogant follow-up this morning. It is unbecoming of a forumsman. These are discussion boards for people to share differences of opinion, not belittle and insult other members.
Obviously you know your stuff and are articulate, but you have a very obvious character flaw for us all to see and in the long term that will act to your detriment. 
Good day.

 

Obviously your chocolate has melted Toblerone and you have an extremely selective memory.

I start a thread about Arden Rooney prior to Kaikoura and you ask me if I was serious. That is a very typical ridiculing type question in keeping with your penis measuring competition. To deny something as obvious as that says it all.

You were not discussing harness racing as you've portrayed yourself as doing. It was just another you know best ridicule of which you've become known for.

Yes I did believe Christen Me was a great show in the Cup for very obvious reasons. Yes I did say Sky Major winning the NZ Cup wouldn't shock me but the odds he was at were ridiculous. That proved spot on.

I couldn't care less what Zac says this morning about the flat tyre. Does that amount to a winning ticket? Sky Major had no hope with the way the race was run. The flat tyre didn't help but he would have needed to be better than Niatross to win from where he was in the race under the circumstances.

We all label horses and get them wrong along the way. I've done it many times myself. Shit happens in horse racing and that is usually no reflection at all on the person who picked the horse to win.

No arrogance at all in my message. Very easy for you to ignore the message and shoot the messenger because the message highlights your own arrogance.

It's ironic that you speak of belittling and insulting other members. You can't be farking serious? At no point are you discussing my perspective. You've very deliberately set out to undermine and ridicule. I accept that's just your way but don't then try and take the high moral ground about it. You don't have a leg to stand on.

What you consider a character flaw is of absolutely no consequence to me. You made yourself look like an arrogant plonker and were exposed as such. Exactly the same thing occurred yesterday with my thread on Cup Day chances. At no point did you acknowledge the time and effort I'd put in. You just set out to undermine and ridicule on every aspect. I was obviously too thick to notice how Petite One had run at Ashburton. That is despite me going out of my way to speak of how important it is on Cup Day to start your betting off on the right foot. Despite me labeling a horse that trotted so badly first up you still ridiculed me for taking the "safe option".

My thoughts on Cup day were not thoughts according to you. They were my tips.  

You were then "amazed" I hadn't put Sunny Ruby in despite me explaining how confident I was with Prince Fearless winning. You were not discussing. You were ridiculing. Why? Because you know best.