RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
porky

punting advice (betting systems) se!

Recommended Posts

Good luck to those who  use their resources to find the best odds for their selections. However I believe  it is more relevant if you are backing only a handful of selections a week. It is also more relevant if you bet in large amounts.    In my opinion If this is not you then it is not as  relevant. Personally I  believe Time is your number one resource. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Porty, I,m not saying I don,t believe you...this guys done good and good on him.

but you and I have previously disagreed on paying sky fees and I prefer watch

and view for free.

Mate, I suppose when I actually seriously check out betfair...you will be right...re odds.

But you sound like my sister(on facebook) who was on this fab diet on the gold coast... and countless others (including her Aussie hubby) from Toowoomba ...Now she is selling or marketing the diet!...as of today!...Money gir!l...Betfair owes you nothing mate unless your on the pay-list. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Porty, I,m not saying I don,t believe you...this guys done good and good on him.

but you and I have previously disagreed on paying sky fees and I prefer watch

and view for free.

Mate, I suppose when I actually seriously check out betfair...you will be right...re odds.

But you sound like my sister(on facebook) who was on this fab diet on the gold coast... and countless others (including her Aussie hubby) from Toowoomba ...Now she is selling or marketing the diet!...as of today!...Money gir!l...Betfair owes you nothing mate unless your on the pay-list. 

 

Talking a few riddles here Porky......

First of all......you have asked what the best betting agencies are?????

Now you are moaning about freeview again?

You can still watch ya watch and view......??

 

Then you bring up ya sis on a diet from the gold coast.....and her man from  Toowoomba...marketing a diet?

 

Not sure if it is home brew night at your place.....but I will get out of this thread.

 

I think you are better to bet exactly how you have been....with the fantastic tab....

Good Luck Porky....Over and out......

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Best punting system ?

 

Wait for tip, when its received, place 200 on the nose, say nothing to anyone else, then wait for the next tip !  ;)

 

 

Any system where you keep doubling up is bs, in fact most of the systems that have been outlaid are bs, reminds me of those stupid calculators and tables they used to try and sell in the old days ... :lol:

 

You aren't getting the word ??, then study is the answer, like Red Ted, select a few that you think will go well and punt however you like, following consistent good horses will put you on the right track.  

Trials, trackwork and race replays and watching how the horses go, will fill your head with good ideas and produce good returns.

 

And remember its not the TABs money, its other punters money, the TAB have taken their cut and don't really care.

 

Weird game this racing thing, where you hand over real cash, for the TABs worthless pieces of paper and IF you are very lucky, they MAY give you some real cash back ....... :D   :lol:   :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great thread, good to see a lot of input. Took the opportunity to tidy up some notes and share..
 
 
 
Consider your personality when forming your staking strategy. You may need to grind a profit most most months to stay sane, or you may be comfortable waiting for a big kill.
 
Consider your knowledge of horses as animals when forming your staking strategy. If you can't spot a dull horse in the ring then focus on early prices.
 
Be patient. Specialise, in particular by segmenting by quality, conditions or course. In general I find only about 5% of NZ races punter-friendly, most are discounted on availability of form, known fitness levels, track or speed mapping.
 
Be patient (again). If you haven't had time to complete proper analysis, let it go. If you want to gamble, take a rougie trifecta by all means but account for it separately.
 
Be patient (again). When you find a future group horse coming through the grades don't back them blind. Everything has a price. 80+% of the time, the horse you are following won't be overs.
 
Acknowledge what you are not expert in.
 
Acknowledge the existence of corruption.
 
You generally need to be a connection to be playing in NZ antepost markets. Aussie ante-post racing is alive and well on betfair, NZ isn't.
 
There is no place for serious place betting in NZ because 1) the tote pools are too unpredictable owing to the gazillions dumped in by rebate punters close to the off 2) the fixed odds markets open AFTER the value in win markets is mostly gone 3) no liquidity on betfair (try getting $2000 to place on anything on a r85 race this Saturday. Won't happen.)
 
Acknowledge your good luck when it comes and don't forget it! Luck never gives, it only lends.
 
Solid race reading is critical and video analysis is a very important tool. 5+ years to be decent at it.
 
Price the markets up yourself. Never ever look at the market before you have priced it up yourself. Profit comes from overlay. Set your margins as a trader, I aim for 5% of book (roughly equating to $3 versus $2.60 or $16 to $9). This can certainly be dutching etc, personally I rarely find more than one in a race.
 
Follow potential: up and coming stables and jockeys.
 
If you have the time you really should collate your own ratings. This is a big commitment though.
 
Be able to articulate your edge. Most of your edge will be in being patient, but being patient for what?
 
Be ready to pounce on the odds compilers mistakes. Know when the markets will be published.
 
The tote overround is usually unbeatable in multi-leg exotics. Even if you have found a rick in multiple legs these have usually closed out by off time. Likewise on the flip side, do get involved where a jackpot / terminating scenario has removed that overround.
 
Have an audit trail. No need to be OCD about it. Putting 90+% of bets through an account is an easy way to do this.
 
Bet on related outcomes. Potential example: Sardaaj on Saturday into Saavoya in the Oaks.
 
Set targets. Be ambitious. One of mine was to win more in one race than the winning connections received.
 
Learn to be a good loser, even celebrate losses if you can where you made a good value selection which just didnt get the luck.
 
Ignore whispers. Every sandpiper sings about his own swamp :)
 
 
Be fearless. Perhaps though a notch or two below Harry Findlay: "Steve Davis and Joe Johnson. After four frames, Johnson was red in the face, Davis was four-nil up, looking as arrogant and evil as usual. At that stage I’d have bet my life on Davis. I would. ‘Davis wins, you get 100 grand; he gets beat, you’re dead.’ I’d have taken the bet straight away.”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My rule of thumb is not to bet into a small pool. The biggest Tote pool in Oz is the NSW tote. It often carries more money per race than the the other two tote pools combined. A Classic case was yesterday. I got a F4 for 250% at the Kempsey races. The F4 paid approx $1900 on Tatts Tote, $5200 on Vic tote and over $9000 on the NSW tote. Because my provider was the Vic tote odds I received approx $12500 instead of over $20k if it had been the NSW tote. I'm happy but imagine how shitty I'd have been if I had backed on the Tatts Tote ! Most big punters stick with straight bets for the win. A few mates of mine back win only and any place bet they might have considered goes on to trifecta bets around the win selection. It's not a bad system. I often put a hot fav in for 2nd and put better/longer priced horses in for 1,3 and 4 in f4. Classic case was Puntinato last Sat. $6:90 on tote in Oz, put fav Duelfelforte (spelling?) into 2nd and an easy $100+ Tri div was in for the taking. Whatever your methods, study is a must and I don't mean of Aiden or Dillo's tips !! :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can study the form as long as you like, but the only people who know how fit a horse is, and how close it is to winning are the people at the coal face, trainers and jockeys, people close to the stable, experienced track watchers/timers.

The only time this becomes exposed to the general unwashed, is when the betting markets are opened

How many times have we seen horse win or place, that, the early or late money went on

How many times horses, that it is known how good they are get hammered in there first few starts.

How often do we see the so called educated money go on week after week.

How often do we see, horses that didn't quite live up to the expectation of the educated money, show up further down the track, at a good price.

Moral of the story, tote watching can give you quite a few winners

So true. Probably the best post on this thread. Anyone that follows betfair markets on Australian horse racing / harness racing closely like myself will know you see some rather dodgey stuff on a daily basis. Without insider knowledge, it's a rather tough sport to bet on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So true. Probably the best post on this thread. Anyone that follows betfair markets on Australian horse racing / harness racing closely like myself will know you see some rather dodgey stuff on a daily basis. Without insider knowledge, it's a rather tough sport to bet on.

Dodgy stuff on Betfair.Cant be because it sounds like just about everybody on this site makes so much money off it.Or do they not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dodgy stuff on Betfair.Cant be because it sounds like just about everybody on this site makes so much money off it.Or do they not.

 

 

Using Betfair is highly unlikely to turn you from a losing punter into a winning punter, BUT, it will almost certainly slow the rate at which you lose if you continue betting on Betfair in a similar manner that you have previously with the TAB....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you pick 30%+ winners or 70%+ placegetters you should be making a profit.For EW betting your place bet should be at least 4 times higher then the win bet.I also do place poker 3's the odd poker 4 but never higher.Win pokers are for the real gamblers only.,but big returns for a small outlay are quite possible.

 Ignore ALL maiden races up to 1200m with unraced horses in them,you cannot assess the form of an unraced horse.

If its raining on the day go to the movies DO NOT bet.

There is a site racingandsports.com.au lots of good info there.

 Good luck

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.