porky 900 Report post Posted January 10, 2015 I have absolutely no problem picking a good % of winners...It,s a correct staking plan or sensible way to back them, I lack. I have little control...just going on instinct e.g 5ew,20plc,10ew..(.trebles (i like chucking in all possible winners per race for a %.)... This method normally sees the day out punting. (up n down, up n down until you finally give them the lot.) Occasionly you,ll have a good day or strike a treble or 2. I suspect the majority of casual punters bet like this! I,m ready for a more professional approach...any advice appreciated. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pogo(aus) 876 Report post Posted January 10, 2015 if you have the time and ability do your own prices and bet to win a set amount or bet level stakes or bet a set % of your bank eg 5% irrespective of the balance or just back horses like caboul and black sardine @ 1.08 , that strategy worked for eddie birchley good luck mate Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted January 10, 2015 Don't take multis or all-ups - in the long run your expected return is significantly lower on these types of bets. If the horses you like are in doubles and trebles then these on the other hand are good to take as they're only "taxed" once. If you want to adopt a real professional approach then have a look at the Kelly criterion - the link below explains it but the formula can be a little bit overwhelming. In simple terms it tells you what percentage of your pool you should bet. The percentage to bet is your "edge" divided by the horses odds. The higher your edge the higher your bet, but on the other hand the higher the odds, then the lower your bet. Your "edge" is the difference between your assessment of the horses chances and the bookies (or tote) assessment. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted January 10, 2015 A simple illustration of Kelly: A horse is paying $3 to win. This price suggests a 33.33% chance of winning. You think its a 40% chance of winning. Your edge therefore is 20% (40% divided by 33.33%). Kelly says you bet your edge divided by the odds. The edge is 20%, the odds are 2:1 so you bet 10% of your pool (20% divided by 2) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny 1,224 Report post Posted January 10, 2015 I know very many punters - Only 2 that I would consider to be successful over the long term - sadly I am not one They have a few key things in common. They only bet EW and take doubles. Neither takes any form of exotic bets (quinella, TF, trebles, quaddies etc) Often they will go a full day at the races without a bet. But when they bet they have a go. On the EW their formula is 1 for 5 - $10 a win $50 a place, but they each talk in mulitples of $50, and $50 over $250 would be a standard bet. On their doubles it is always anchor first leg - with 5 horses in the second leg $10 units. Over a year they would bet less than me as I bet each week. They do not - They save themselves for Premier Gallop meetings and only bet in Listed, Stakes and Open Class races - no maidens, R65 thru to R85 for them. One of them is very successful and puts in hours of study before he goes to the races. Neither of them bets at a TAB or holds a phone account. They only bet when on course at the races. Bottom line is they are both tremendously disciplined - If I was I would have joined them in their approach but it does not suit my personality (or bad habit lol) for what its worth Porky, these are the only 2 I know who do make money on the punt Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
porky 900 Report post Posted January 10, 2015 Thank you guys.... so far ...5% of your bank...(irrespective of your balance) seems the easiest for me to fathom..cheers Pogo That is alot easier and one I will stick to. I must admit I know a staking plan but havn,t got the patience for it,... and never see it out. The crux of it is, you put your bet on, out of your bank...$73 for $1 units.../$730 for $10 ...( $4 winner or ,2 x $2 places to equal $4,one winner in ten and you can,t lose.) Start at bet 1., if you lose, next bet...etc etc to step 10...when you strike a winner,return to bet 1 keep money in Bank, until bank is doubled...up to you then! $72 bank $ spent Profit with $4 win...return to bet 1 Bet 1 $1 1 3 Bet 2 $2 3 5 Bet 3 $2 5 3 Bet 4 $3 8 4 Bet 5 $4 12 4 Bet 6 $6 18 6 Bet 7 $9 27 9 Bet 8 $11 38 6 Bet 9 $15 53 7 Bet 10 $20 73 7 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdytdy 5,341 Report post Posted January 10, 2015 I have little control...just going on instinct e.g 5ew,20plc,10ew..(.trebles (i like chucking in all possible winners per race for a %.)... This method normally sees the day out punting. (up n down, up n down until you finally give them the lot.) Occasionly you,ll have a good day or strike a treble or 2. . That's the problem Porky. "Little control, going on instinct" Do your home work dilligently, it takes time but worth it in the long run. Don't entirely agree with your thoughts on multi's N1MUE. Work out what you expect your horse to be paying on the tote and compare that to the fixed odds, on many occasions you can find overs and some of them are well overs! Pick out your top three or four of the day and take a combination of multi's with those horses and back them indivually making them your bigger bets for the day. Play around with your others if you want but make them much smaller bets. Yesterday for example my top four were: McQueen, Maid Of Steel, Smarts Encosta and one that missed The Fire Inside. porky and cherry_bomb 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portfolio 728 Report post Posted January 10, 2015 I know very many punters - Only 2 that I would consider to be successful over the long term - sadly I am not one They have a few key things in common. They only bet EW and take doubles. Neither takes any form of exotic bets (quinella, TF, trebles, quaddies etc) Often they will go a full day at the races without a bet. But when they bet they have a go. On the EW their formula is 1 for 5 - $10 a win $50 a place, but they each talk in mulitples of $50, and $50 over $250 would be a standard bet. On their doubles it is always anchor first leg - with 5 horses in the second leg $10 units. Over a year they would bet less than me as I bet each week. They do not - They save themselves for Premier Gallop meetings and only bet in Listed, Stakes and Open Class races - no maidens, R65 thru to R85 for them. One of them is very successful and puts in hours of study before he goes to the races. Neither of them bets at a TAB or holds a phone account. They only bet when on course at the races. Bottom line is they are both tremendously disciplined - If I was I would have joined them in their approach but it does not suit my personality (or bad habit lol) for what its worth Porky, these are the only 2 I know who do make money on the punt Where are your 2 mates winning on doubles??? Surely not at the tab, double divs are shit. Stick to win/place Porky.....Sometimes people state that they win on all sorts of bets....and some people believe them..... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny 1,224 Report post Posted January 10, 2015 They do Porty but it is not their prime bets. Their major go is $50 over $250 or $100 over $500 and the end result is their place bets are the success. Their doubles would be one of the five bets they place but they do get good results. Like Hesi very very disciplined as to the races they bet on And like Ted, one of them puts in hours of study for his day out. The key to these two is their absolute discipline - no emotive bets or bet for an interest bets taken Do they enjoy it, I really don't know, I know it has limited appeal to me Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdytdy 5,341 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 I enjoy going to the races Turny and more than likely have a bet in each race probably just like Porky but what I am advising Porky is to adjust your bet according to how you rate their chances ie Make sure your best bets of the day are in fact your best bets. Adjust what you put on accordingly. Rule number 1. Back the horse not the price. How many times do you hear people say they liked the winner but it was too short for them and backed something else. eg. Someone goes to the races with $100 and really likes a horse in the first. They were going to put $10.00 to win on it. They see it paying only $2.00 so they look for something to beat it putting the $10.00 on something else. The horse wins so instead of ending up with $110.00 in the pocket they have $90.00 and one of their better bets on the day has won and they have nothing on it. Sometimes they might get it right but more times than not that $2.00 pop will win. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdytdy 5,341 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 Perfect example: R2 at Hawera just run. Sorted out one bet there for the day after watching this horse at the trials Unsurpassed. Bookies opened up this morning at $1.75 which I though was actually very good. Bolts in paying $1.30 on the tote. Grabbed the fixed odds of $1.75 and easy trifecta of $13.20. Back outside now into the sunshine. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny 1,224 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 As always Ted, very solid stuff and great advice - agree with you in that there is a clear relationship between extensive study and results Tom Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
porky 900 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 That's the problem Porky. "Little control, going on instinct" Do your home work dilligently, it takes time but worth it in the long run. Don't entirely agree with your thoughts on multi's N1MUE. Work out what you expect your horse to be paying on the tote and compare that to the fixed odds, on many occasions you can find overs and some of them are well overs! Pick out your top three or four of the day and take a combination of multi's with those horses and back them indivually making them your bigger bets for the day. Agree mate...do that also, is there a any 2 / all 4, fixed odds, type bet? Annoying trying to cross up your top 3 or 4 as if early selection doesn,t win ..(majority of bets gone) and your day done. Give me an example of how to cross up your best 4 for the day...using $50. Cheers mate Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 Don't entirely agree with your thoughts on multi's N1MUE. Happy for you to disagree with me - people often do. But in this case its simple maths. Anyone with a basic understanding of probability/odds and expected returns will tell you that in the long run you are better to take single bets than multi bets. Key words here are long run - yes you might have the odd success with multis but over time .... The probability theory is backed up by empirical data - ask the TAB bookies - their profit margin (%) on multis is two to three times better than their margin on single bets. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brown Fox 867 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 Sounds exactlly like me as well Porky If you are just wanting one bet for the day find three good horses paying $1.30 for a place. $100 all up gets you $219 I can get these 4 out of 5 times as I'm sure most of you can.All depends on how much your looking for.You wont get the big collects but it's a good little earner Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pogo(aus) 876 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdytdy 5,341 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 For a $50.00 hypothetical spend Porky I would: Pick out my top three best bets for the day A, B & C and put $10 to win on each. The remaining $20.00 spend on multis thus: $5 multi A & B $5 multi A & C $5 multi B & C $5 multi A, B & C Any two get up you collect, all three a bonus. I find you strike a lot more than just the odd one N1MUE. cherry_bomb and porky 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunlineboy 131 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 You could try the chase system. Not recommended for the lighter wallets or weak minded however. It's rather simple and is best suited for sports betting. Simply double your stake for every loss, and revert back to your original stake once you hit. Obviously, you can rule out $1.10 shots, so this only works with options paying at least $1.80ish. The rule of thumb is that you will eventually make a winning bet - whether it's first up, or after 100 bets, you'll end up even or ahead - depending on the odds. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brown Fox 867 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 Ted is far too modest to say but the first 3 winners at Ellerslie yesterday(mcqueen/puntinato/delveen) were his first picks. $100 all up for a place$600. $100 all up for a win$8200.Pity I wasn't brave enough puha 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarryHindsight 117 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 Get a big cardboard box and whenever you wish to bet place the stake money inside it. The bigger the bets the better it gets. The multi margins may be because people who bet early and uneducated are betting into 130% + markets. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 The multi margins may be because people who bet early and uneducated are betting into 130% + markets. Single bets are betting into the same markets. Multi margins are bigger (for the TAB) because its a mathematical certainty! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Harrop 226 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 Rule number 1. Back the horse not the price. Pop Quiz : Which is the better bet on fixed odds? A horse paying $1.90 with a 50% chance of winning or a horse paying $51 with a paltry 2% chance of winning? N1MUE 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 Pop Quiz : Which is the better bet on fixed odds? A horse paying $1.90 with a 50% chance of winning or a horse paying $51 with a paltry 2% chance of winning? Clearly the latter but you'd only bet a small share of your pool. Not sure that someone who says "back the horse not the price" has a particularly good understanding of probability/odds. You should never bet on the former - its like taking $1.90 on a coin toss. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
chelseacol 2,488 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 Clearly the latter but you'd only bet a small share of your pool. Not sure that someone who says "back the horse not the price" has a particularly good understanding of probability/odds. You should never bet on the former - its like taking $1.90 on a coin toss. Value being the key concept here N1MUE 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
N1MUE 1,877 Report post Posted January 11, 2015 Value being the key concept here Yes exactly and value means your assessment of its probability of winning is greater than the probability implied by the dividend (ie. the edge that Kelly refers to). Value does not simply mean the fixed odds price is better than the tote price. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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