RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Swynford

Pedigree Patterns

Recommended Posts

Just saw this horse win at Moonee Valley on Saturday. According to Arion Pedigrees mating the stallion Good Journey with  O'Reilly mares,  six names foals, five raced, three winners, two stakes winners, which is 40% stakes winners to named foals, way above most stallions, strike rate of 5% or less.  Early days but similar to the very successful Redoutes Choice / Last Tycoon "nick"

post-8706-0-52286800-1408957052_thumb.pn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This sort of replication is all over the place. Agree that there are certain crosses or nicks that statistically work better than others but Swynford, why don't you suggest some pedigrees from the national yearling sales that you think are rocket ships and we'll be able to follow them. The horse that you have indicated above is already racing in black type races.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Berri

 

 To be fair to Swynford he is consistent with his theory --bottom line of the stallion matching the top line of the broodmare sire (ie tracing back to a common mare. In this case Best in Show)

 

 BTW. I know in your challenge a few months ago it was based on pedigree and you are a "type" fan so how about you put up your top three from last years yearling sales based on your criteria.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Berri,     I agree with Breeder,  With your challenge you are keen to put every one else's 'crown Jewels' on the line accept your own.   This is a Breeding Forum, Can't remember which of your posts it was in but you stated you don't breed horses, you buy them. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Berri    can't see the point in your challenge, but I'm getting your picture.  You would like some predictions. This stallion should cross with O'Reilly mares. Love this stallion.

 

 

post-8706-0-34900100-1409126169_thumb.pn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Had the pleasure of the Waikato Stallion Parades at the weekend just past and must say I enjoyed it immensely. I was impressed with a speech made by Rodney Schick at Windsor Park Stud. He said the All Blacks were statistically the best team in the world and that New Zealanders as a nation, we punched way above our weight, This is not just in the rugby arena but also in thoroughbred breeding and I couldn't agree more. He had traveled the globe and didn't know of any other nation that put so much time and effort into planning mating's like New Zealanders do.  

 

Crossing O'Reilly mares with this stallion will give similar pattern to the successful Redoute's Choice /Last Tycoon "nick"  or Good Journey /O'Reilly.

post-8706-0-48379400-1409129144_thumb.pn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This example raises some interesting questions. Is this an affinity between Good Journey and O’Reilly specifically, is the sample size big enough , does the hypothesis of Swynfords “mirror “ breeding hold true ,in other words can the success be repeated with other stallion members of the Best In Show family.

 

The early returns for the Good Journey x O’Reilly are encouraging but the sample size is very small and there could be other factors not being taken into consideration.

 

Berri

 

 To be fair to Swynford he is consistent with his theory --bottom line of the stallion matching the top line of the broodmare sire (ie tracing back to a common mare. In this case Best in Show)

Does the theory stand up ?

 

Good Journey has produced 16 other progeny of racing age to mares by sires tracing back to Best In Show. The mares are by Spinning World, Hurricane Sky , Umatilla, Last Tycoon and Redoute’s Choice.  There have been 10 of these offspring to the races for five individual winners, not one stakes winner amongst them, all minor race winners.

 

Extrapolation of the pedigrees of these horses by Good Journey  would look very similar to the example of Craft Cruiser posted above.

07BN8o1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Totally agree here Henry that there are others with the same pattern that don't make it. But remembering that most stallions average strike rate of Stakes winners to runners is less than 5 % , which means that for every one stakes winner there is another 95  that don't make it.

 

Even with successful crosses the most one can realistically expect is around 20%. So for every good one there is at least another four that are no good.  Zabeel over Vice Regal mares would be a classic example.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One good horse is all one needs. I think the male line of the mare, especially the first dam is a very important factor in a pedigree.

Love the mating of your O'Reilly mare with Per Incanto. 

 

 

post-8706-0-52016100-1409162801_thumb.pn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

O’Reilly is proving to be a very good broodmare sire and perhaps credit should go to him rather than being directed towards Best In Show, though the later may well have an important contributory role. O’Reilly has shown that his daughters can get stakes winners to most half decent sires. Good horses can be bred along a number of patterns especially when using high class stock.

The Waikato Stud stallions O’Reilly, Pins and Savabeel serve to illustrate my point. These sires were all classy racehorses , serve quality mares and their stock are raised properly.

Here are some pedigrees involving the three Waikato Stud stallions beginning with O’Reilly :-

vtxZwhr.png

VndDEw6.png

2lADALA.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Henri,

 

 In my post yesterday I wasn't saying I entirely agree with Swynford ( But I absolutely support his right to hold a strong view on his pet pedigree theory).

 

Re Waikato stallions --I have said a number of times that from a pedigree point of view I think their huge success can, at least partly, be put down to fact that they have had series of stallions that produce a higher proportion of very good race fillies compared to colts ---Centaine, Pompeii Court , O'Reilly . I support the idea that these stallions often go onto be good broodmare sires  --- not just for the good race mares but their mares in general. Like all theories it doesn't always hold true.

  Your comment on being raised properly on good soils etc. are also obviously important.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Henri,

 

In my post yesterday I wasn't saying I entirely agree with Swynford ( But I absolutely support his right to hold a strong view on his pet pedigree theory).

Breeder I embrace the right of Swynford or anyone for that matter that is prepared to put forward and postulate their thoughts on pedigrees. It is wonderful that we have a platform here to discuss these matters and it’s good that some of these theories and observations are, whether we agree or not.

I like to look at all the angles before making up my own mind about what works and is going on behind pedigrees. When we discuss and investigate openly on this forum everyone benefits in the end. What this latest example involving the results between Good Journey and daughters of O’Reilly clearly demonstrates IMO is that O’Reilly himself and not Best In Show could be the factor behind the apparent success of the pattern to date. What is also evident is that the “mirror” theory involving other related sires stemming from Best in Show is not working as well.

Redoute’s Choice probably the most successful sire that is tail female to Best In Show has displayed a distinct affinity with mares by Last Tycoon whose sire Try My Best is also a member of the Best In Show family. (22% stakes winners to foals). Howeve, like Good Journey, examination of the results of mares by related sires Hurricane Sky, Spinning World, Umatilla, Xaar, Masterclass and O’Reilly have not yielded anywhere near the same results for Redoute’s Choice with only 1 stakes winner between them (27 foals of racing age, 16 starters, 15 winners and one stakes winner - Tranquillity ).

Interestingly there have been just two foals out of mares by El Gran Senor and his son Al Hareb sired by Redoutes Choice.( El Gran Senor is an own brother to Try My Best). Redoute’s Choice has sired NZ Derby GR1 winner Redoutes Dancer and stakes placed Strive To Excel to this pattern. Perhaps in the case of Redoute’s Choice the catalyst may actually be Sex Appeal, a daughter of Best In Show.

The advent of the computer has IMO made breeders lazy and they look to duplications and linebreeding close up on pedigree grids to make some sense in what would otherwise be a sea of names on a page. I suspect that being able to point to a duplication provides a ready and plausible answer behind the success of a horse. Duplications and colour coded patterns on a page are a source of comfort and give breeders a sense of purpose and confidence when planning a mating.

The narrowing of the breed in modern times means that we are going to see more and more inbreeding, duplication (and multiplications) of certain influential horses to the extent that it will become the norm and accepted practice in the industry. Already new terminology is being coined by pedigree analysts eg “parallel line breeding”. I remember a time when “international outcross” was bandied about and “hybrid vigour” and these were terms used to explain the success of horses that were the product of bringing together geographically isolated thoroughbred populations whose local bloodlines were each quite different to the others with some commonality further back. I suppose Danehill would have been a fine example of the “international outcross” when his mainly American bloodlines took off with the Australian bloodlines laden with Star Kingdom and European elements. With the advent of shuttle sires and large commercial books of mares many sales catalogues around the world nowadays look quite similar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I meet a lot of stallion owners or people who are interested in the stallions wellfare only.  Were the chegue book mentality exists. They are happy to take any mare for any reason. 

 

My chosen roll in the business is to help brood-mare owners get the best results and breed a top horse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes I read the article with interest. Pedigree below. Appreciate the grey color coming from Petite Etoile but to me the most powerful part of the pedigree more along the lines of Amy Bennetts article in the same magazine about females, The mares are so important and their bottom line even more so. Both O'Reilly, and more importantly Freequence (although deep,) descend in direct female line to the family that produced  Mr Prospector and Le Fabuleux.  

 

Matching mares that have Northern Dancer on the male line of the 1st and 2nd dam (as with Freequence) is a great match for both Machiavellian and Halo in No Excuse Needed's sire line

post-8706-0-64819600-1409472254_thumb.pn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Once again it looks like much of the credit for the success, as a sire, of No Excuse Needed can be attributed to O’Reilly, just like we saw earlier when discussing Good Journey.

Matching mares that have Northern Dancer on the male line of the 1st and 2nd dam (as with Freequence) is a great match for both Machiavellian and Halo in No Excuse Needed's sire line

There is no evidence of a significant increase in the success of progeny bred in the way suggested above. This pattern has been well tried so far with No Excuse Needed without any better results compared with mares with differing sire patterns. I have reviewed every pedigree of the offspring sired by No Excuse Needed that have raced to date. Not even Danehill or his sire sons have been able to significantly upgrade the abilities of No Excuse Needed progeny compared with other sires in the general population, Danehill remember is bred 3x3 to Natalma.

No Excuse needed has bred 16 stakes winners in total, to daughters of O’Reilly he has produced 5 stakes winners. Of the remaining 11 stakes winners 5 are by sires stemming from Northern Dancer line sires and the other six by non Northern Dancer line sires. (All six are by non Northern Dancer line sires and so too are their grand sires ) Furthermore No Excuse Needed has also sired 10 individual stakes placed performers, one is out of an O’Reilly mare (no surprise there) the other nine are all out of mares by non Northern Dancer line sires !

I think therefore that it is safe to conclude that one has as much chance of breeding a good horse by No Excuse Needed with or without ND in the makeup of your mare and if one has a mare by O'Reilly you have a statistically higher chance of breeding a good horse by him.

moSLhaQ.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think any man who only looks at part of the pedigree is a fool. Are O'Reilly mares the only way to get a Group One winner from the stallion No Excuse Needed ????

Only a fool would ignore the plain facts. These are the foolish statistics:-

502 foals

339 runners

2 GR1 winners Daffodil (ex O’Reilly mare), I Do (ex O’Reilly mare)

O’Reilly mares have produced 77 foals by No Excuse Needed.

Mares by other sires have produced 425 foals by No Excuse Needed. To date no Group One winners amongst them.

UChQlA9.png

BcrpFts.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 I think if you read my post again Henri, it says any man who only looks at half of the pedigree (and comes to conclusions) is a fool and I was referring to the I Do pedigree

 

 

I think their are two things that can be concluded from this thread,

 

 

  • My original post of the strike rate of O'Reilly mares with Good Journey is at 40 %  stakes winners to named foals.( hope that helps someone) 

 

  And what you have clearly pointed out Henri with the stats above

 

  • If you dream of breeding a Group One winner, have $8,000 in your pocket, don't own an O'Reilly mare but a mare from some other stallion, then don't bother sending her to No Excuse Needed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.