RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Breeder

Berri's challenge --yearling selection

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I read Swynford's original post and would have to agree with him, that picking yearlings involves a whole raft of things, including, if you wish, your own 'pet' theories about pedigrees/breeding. I don't think even the most ardent pedigree buffs would suggest buying yearlings sight unseen, based purely on their pedigree.

 

Anyway, I just thought it was meant as a bit of fun, an interest in this quiet section of the Café - so thought I'd put up my selections for scrutiny. If they don't comply with your original intent Berri, please just ignore..

Cheers!

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Lloyd...not at all. I am going to put this lot into a customised website. It will be fun. I just thought it would be interesting to submit a group of horses based on pedigree alone because it would have been interesting to see whether the pedigree buffs could out perform the horse type selectors. It seemed from Swynford's original posts that he was a pedigree man....hence my challenge based on pedigree.

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So if someone picks a horse for say 20k,and it wins several races as opposed to a pick of say a million dollars and it wins a minor listed race,how will you assess it?

I would have thought return on investment would be a major factor?

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great idea dreams are free...... and we are all experts..... I'll love to have any of these 3 Broodmares.

 

Lot 325 Thorn Park - Valpolicella J Chalmers $260k

Lot 356 Rip van Winkle- Akela     Mulcaster    $240k

Lot 460 Zabeel - Eloa                  D Hawthorne $270k

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I've actually been thinking about that....how to create the elements that rate success? It should be a combination of things in the form of an algorithm.

One element would have to be Return On Investment (ROI) which would be the cost of the horse plus a set formula in respect of training fees over the time.

One might be the sale that the horse was bought from with Premier having the least amount points with festival the most.

I'm just thinking out aloud but another could be some sort of points scoring in respect of wins/ placings/ stakes wins and placings (subsets being group one performances having more points than listed).

What I'd really like to do is make this worth serious bucks. Just haven't engaged my alternative brain quite yet.

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Mine if I may

Lot 560 Rip Van Winkle ex Keeper Special

Lot 569 O'reilly ex kiwi Park

Lot 507 Savabeel ex Haberdashery

Hummels

Can you please look below at the information I would like to add you to the exercise. I don't have the time to look into it as I've also been emailed with selections and its just too much work for you not to do it yourself

lot Number

Sale

Amount sold for/passed

Who bought

Sire

Dam

Sex

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All from Select

560 Rip Van Winkle ex Keeper Special buyer sf ritchie 41k

Lot 569 O'reilly ex kiwi Park buyer lr noble 22.5k

Lot 507 Savabeel ex Haberdashery buyer murray baker racing 42k

All fillies.

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Although I like the idea of this competition,I hope everyone realises this could be the longest running comp in the history of any comp ever anywhere.

Before you even think of the next karaka sales picks,this set of selections probably wont have an outcome till the year 2025,unless there turns out to be a MUSTARD or two in amongst them then correct weight may not signalled till say 2030.

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One my selections ( Thorn Park colt named Mission Accompli ) won a trial today at Te Aroha.

 

Have to add --Graham and Debbie Rogerson are having an amazing run with their 2 yr olds this season. Another lot of winners today at the trials. One Fastnet Rock colt by 7 lengths over 650mts.

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I see my Rip/Clown Princess filly in Shaun Ritchies team trialled at Cambridge Tues. Unplaced.

It is nice to see my 3 selections actually getting to the racing stage .

 

Is Berri keeping a track of all this as he started it all ?

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