RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Swynford

Pedigree Analysis and Yearling Sale Selection

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I think Berri has to be joking or has misunderstood the question or is answering some other question as he is normally on the mark.

 

Berri places great emphasis on type which as I have stated is very important.

 

Swynford, I commend you on your statistics on Zabeel with mares from the Man' O'War male line. Certainly a point well proven.

 

I get back to my point is that Zabeel was a true Group One racehorse and Jest Kidding was nothing like that. Jest Kidding has no Group One win or placing, no stakes win, no race win. He was tried.

 

Show some statistics on a stallion that did not have race ability and who got the same results and I would open my eyes for sure.  

 

Surely you are putting too much emphasis on pedigree compared to a balance of pedigree/type/ stallion race ability.

 

If you look at this years new season sires there are stallions with Group One wins under their names. 

Paying $3k or $4k more on a service fee instead of Jest Kidding is cheap insurance to improve your chances.   

 

In fact getting a first or second season sire gives the option of going to a sale.

 

It costs say $15k to $18k per year to get a horse trained ( emphasis again per year!) so moving up to the $5k to $8k range service fee has to be considered.

Proven sires available like No Excuse Needed, Keeper, and now ... Per Incanto, great value.

 

Sons of Street Cry are going huge. Hallowed Crown by Street Sense winning the G1 Golden Rose is Sydney last week was pretty impressive.        

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Again lots of questions,  I think Sir Tristram would be great example, No Group One wins, 19 starts, for 2 wins,  stakes placed at best..well tried

 

Conformation....???    Some good judges pulled the pin when they saw him.

 

I believe that breeding from either stallions or mares that come from stout female lines will increase your chances.

 

On Hallowed Crown.  I think he has a nice bottom line.

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If we shouldn't breed from horses that don't perform, and are at the bottom of the heap on the race track or "didn't get the magic gene "  how come mares like Tiona, My Trica,(unraced ) and Benediction have become some of the most outstanding producing mares in New Zealand, Add to that list also Eight Carat who was a world class producer.  Would you have culled these mares ?. 

 

I think Sir Tristram is a great example. Not of the best race horse but some great bloodlines in key positions.

I think Sir Tristram would be great example, No Group One wins, 19 starts, for 2 wins, stakes placed at best..well tried

This topic has generated some good discussion however there are a number of half truths. I believe it is in everyone’s interests to make sure that we get the information correct otherwise the myths get perpetuated. I don’t want to come across as a nit-picker, just want to set the record straight.

Firstly Benediction the dam of Might and Power was a good race filly, good enough to win and be stakes placed at 3 years.

That group of mares were all well related and deserving of the opportunity not only to go to stud but to go to good commercial sires too. Eight Carat was a half sister to the champion filly Habibti and traced back through Mumtaz Mahal through Lady Josephine. She fetched good money for an unplaced maiden mare at the Tattersalls Sales and was on sold later for a substantially more to Patrick Hogan. Her sire Pieces of Eight was a top class racehorse, a smart 3 year old he earned a lofty Timeform Rating of 128. His stud record is best described as respectable and besides Eight Carat another of his daughters also bred a brilliant Group One winner Handsome Sailor (GR1 William Hill Sprint Championship and GR1 Prix de l’Abbaye).

To try and place Jest Kidding in the same category as Sir Tristram is just ridiculous. Jest Kidding was useless as a racehorse. He raced seven times and his best effort was a second placing at the Victorian country track of Swan Hill. The winner never placed before or subsequently and the rest of the field could not shed maiden their maiden status even racing in the weakest country maiden class.

Sir Tristram on the other hand was a very good racehorse contrary to popular belief. He raced twice as a 2 year old, winning on debut before winning over 1800m beating a field of 21 runners, he finished second at his second start. As a three year old Sir Tristram showed his class when running second beaten a short neck by Mount Hagen (TFR 127) in the listed Prix Omnium, he was relegated to third for interference. Sir Tristrams owner Raymond Guest a former US ambassador to Ireland then embarked on an ambitious program to contest both the Kentucky Derby and Epsom Derby with Sir Tristram ! It was destined to fail, at his second US start Sir Tristram ran 11th in the Kentucky Derby. His jockey Bill Hartack who had piloted Northern Dancer to victory in the Kentucky Derby had this to say about Sir Tristram “…he was a pretty decent horse, but he never came acclimated over here because he was rushed to run the Derby” Hartack also went on to say “He was a big, strong, good-looking horse, and I thought he had a lot of ability” – high praise from a jockey who has ridden 5 individual Kentucky Derby winners !

Upon his return to France Sir Tristram had an accident, he smashed his near fore pastern necessitating the insertion of two pins and was boxed for nearly four months, in spite of this he had a busy season as at four years. Sir Tristram raced in the best company at 4 years, he raced 14 times, won over a mile and placed another 7 times. A memorable performance was his 4th placing behind the champion filly Allez France in the GR2 Prix Foy. Sir Tristram was accorded a respectable Timeform rating of 115 Ib.

I can only think of one patently bad racehorse that became a good sire and that is Tredennis (1898). Tredennis had three unplaced career starts. Tredennis went on to feature twice on the top ten sires list in Great Britain and sire amongst others Bachelor’s Double.

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Thanks Henri that post re Sir T's race history is well known. For me it's a real stretch to say he was a "very good racehorse".

I would agree that he had more ability than his record would indicate. A horse like Volksraad would be similar in more recent times.

The real Sir T history is that Patrick had spent 6-12 months looking for a stallion prospect in England & Europe etc via his bloodstock agent who was probably the top man in those days.

The agent was aware of Sir T but never quoted him to Patrick as he wasn't considered good enough!

Sir T was "discovered" by a pedigree enthusiast in NZ who alerted Patrick to the horse.

The rest is history. Let's hope there is another like Sir T in the NZ stallion line up -we really need one, and can't afford just to rent horses from Coolmore and the like.

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designer...

 

Falcon Seelster would stand proud...then bite you and kick you in the head.

He could look after himself, as I understand it...but your concern over his mental condition stands to your credit.

 

All the best.

Ashoka

 

:)  :)  :)  :)  :)

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Henri Jooste...

 

Tredennis (1898)...thank you for this information, especially the year. Too far back and indicative of exactly what I am trying to clarify.

I would like your opinion on the pedigrees of the three stallions named by "Berri"...these being:

Choisir

Pivotal

Sharmardal.

I would eliminate them because, as has been pointed out by "fitzy", they are all by highly-respected and recognised sires.

However, what is your opinion of the damline of each, or any, of these three?

Thank you.

 

All the best.

Ashoka

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Ashoka I was also somewhat bemused by Berri's post, he is usually on the mark with his observations. All three Choisir, Shamardal and Pivotal were smart race horses by good commercial sires. Of the three Choisir had the weakest immediate dam and grand dam but then both were by good racehorses and sires in Lunchtime and Biscay. By weakest I mean non stakes performing, Choisir's dam Great selection was nevertheless a winner at 2 years in Sydney and his grand dam Pensive Mood won 4 races.

 

Thanks Henri that post re Sir T's race history is well known. For me it's a real stretch to say he was a "very good racehorse".
I would agree that he had more ability than his record would indicate. A horse like Volksraad would be similar in more recent times.

 

Volksraad was Timeform rated 90 at 2 years and gained a TFR of 109 at 3 years.

 

For the record who was the pedigree enthusiast in NZ that discovered Sir Tristram ?

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Henri

 

......half truths,   yaaaaah  ....first time you have agreed with me about something even if its only half..

 

.your research is brilliant..   but 11th in the Kentucky  Derby... (excuse the black type) ........  .ummm    most people would leave that one out.

 

And if 11th in the Derby is a recipe for stallion success, Casual Lies should have been a world beater.

 

I think most people know his pedigree was what Sir Patrick was attracted to.

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Irishbay.....

 

I think you have a very good mare and mated right could leave a big one.  You may have to get her out of the mainland to do it. Will have a look at stallions up this way for you. 

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Swynford...

 

The circumstances surrounding Sir Tristram's attempt on the Kentucky Derby, the comments of the jockey and the very fact that the connections attempted such an audacious task as achieving an international Derby Double are extremely relevant to any assessment of the great stallion, in my opinion.

 

I agree that Mr Jooste's research is excellent and thank him for his reply to my question.

 

All the best.

Ashoka

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Irishbay.....

 

I think you have a very good mare and mated right could leave a big one.  You may have to get her out of the mainland to do it. Will have a look at stallions up this way for you. 

Hi Swinford.  Thanks for putting yourself out there and coming up with a suggestion.  It seems there are a lot of factors to consider when planning a mating.  Your right there does seem to be a lot more options up North in terms of variety of stallions to choose from.

We  may consider that in the future for Limoux and another we have, probably prefer the mare to go up empty and come back to foal.

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On 7/3/2014 at 8:38 PM, Swynford said:

my breeding venture at the moment. I chose what I thought is the best blood in the industry and what I think is the best way to breed back to it. And the most economical way to do that. We purchased this mare for $400. He is a rising two year old, has some minor problems ,but we all waiting in anticipation.

pedigree below.  What do you think ?

post-8706-0-71074500-1404376600_thumb.pn

 

Now named Grand Rio wins his maiden at Rotorua midweek in the mud by 15 lenghths

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