Pedigree Analysis and Yearling Sale Selection

[Swynford 121]

posted from Berri 

 

(   "So all I have asked for is that you nominate 10 yearlings from the select yearling sales that pass the mustard using your technology. Post the lot numbers, give us the pedigrees and why and we'll follow them and make a party out of it. That way we'll all know. Must work both ways....1 selecting mares and stallions and the other identifying others who have done is correctly.....go on....give it a go".  )

 

 

My answer to "your challenge" as above is simple, I have been there, done that and don't need to prove to my self that my methods are good.  When selecting yearlings from a sale the most important factor is to inspect the horse and its too late for that. I would never buy or recommend some one else buy a horse just because it looked good on my screen.  However combining the two can give you a little advantage over the opposition. 

 

 One of the only times I have been asked to search yearling sales using my technology and skill was many years ago now but could be termed a successful one.  I selected what I thought where the best pedigrees of different stallions. A small number of horses where purchased and there where failures of course.  But I had identified a colt out of Dusky Rosa as the best yearling in the sale of some 40 odd by the stallion Grosvenor.  As well as having a nice pedigree he was a very nice looking horse and good judges, (from memory Paul Willetts)  had him short listed. These guys take a look at things like size, temperament, health, athleticism and most of all the ability to stand training etc.

 

The horse was purchased and went onto win the Group One Australian Derby, L.K.S MacKinnon Stakes and around $1.5 million in prize money.  The reasons I identified him was because of where the duplications occurred in his pedigree.  Right on the male line of Dusky Rosa was Persian Gulf, who was by Bahram. Bahram appears as the brood-mare sire of Summertime. Adding to the mix Persian Gulf was out of Double Life and Summertime's sire Precipitation was out of Double Life. So to me these two horses, Summertime and Persian Gulf, are very genetically similar, of the highest quality,and right in the spot where big fish are caught.

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[Lloyd Vivian 742]

Not sure I'm convinced of the worth/input of those horses in the 6th & 7th generation Swynford - but each to their own aye - and good luck to you.

[Berri 2,131]

I'm a bit confused. Swynford....You allude to the notion that good horses have certain crosses that are needed to be good horses and from your posts it would seem that you profess to be able to select 20% stakes winners from your pedigree methods. Now you are saying you need to look at them to give you the edge. I don't do pedigree analysis to the degree that you do because I'm not confident in your methods. I look at the pedigree because I am looking for genetic traits through horses that I have seen or known. My hit rate is about 30% SW to purchases but I don't race many. I seem to always have a nice horse but have no more than 3-4 in work. It's fun for me.

So what good horses have you raced, or advised others to race? I'm not trying to catch you out....I'm just trying to understand your perspective and place some weight into what you are saying. We sort of moved from pedigree selection to now being type selection.

[Swynford 121]

Happy to answer your questions and will come back to you, I need to fez up a bit in that I do work as a professional consultant. So I am a little careful in what I say.

Client confidentiality needs to be a consideration. 

[Swynford 121]

Sorry I didn't join your challenge. To do the job properly I would have liked at least a month to both enter the data and then sort through it all and come up with my selections. And even then maybe sleep on these decisions for a week or so.

Then it would be off to the sale with someone who knows what to look for in a good horse.

 

I spent a fortune decades ago creating very specialized software. I thought I was going to be the next Bill Gates, or Steve Jobs. However it didn't happen for various reasons. I lost a fortune, including a wife and kids who got sick of someone starring at a screen all day. I walked away from the industry and this software lived mostly in a card board box in the closet for ten or so years.

 

I can thank two people for encouraging me back into it, Richard Wood and Mick Ormond. These are the only people still using my software today other than myself.

 

Some of the successes to date from the trio

 

I have selected a A.J.C Derby winner.... Ebony Grosve........ from the yearling sales

Mick has bred an A.JC Derby winner.... Roman Emperor......from a very small band of broodmares

Richard had the red hot favourite for the A.JC Derby......... Jimmy Choux from a very small band of brood mares. 

 

and there is a lot more.

 

In itself quite a remarkable achievement from people who were once small players.

 

We all dream of breeding a champion and it DOESN'T happen every time, But just like playing cards,when you stack the deck, sometimes we get it right and we hit the JACKPOT.

[Irishbay 18]

We went to a presentation on the Goldmine software package which seemed to be based on crosses that have worked when planning a mating or selecting from the sale.  I guess it is attacking it from a statistical perspective.  The 20/20 mating was desirable :-)

I wonder how many of the 20/20 mating's hit the jackpot?  We found it very interesting and will probably buy it to give us more information on our planned mating.

[Swynford 121]

my breeding venture at the moment. I chose what I thought is the best blood in the industry and what I think is the best way to breed back to it. And the most economical way to do that. We purchased this mare for $400. He is a rising two year old, has some minor problems ,but we all waiting in anticipation.

pedigree below.  What do you think ?

[Lloyd Vivian 742]

I really like Sufficient, so in my book, you're on the right track for a start!!

[Forrest 78]

my breeding venture at the moment. I chose what I thought is the best blood in the industry and what I think is the best way to breed back to it. And the most economical way to do that. We purchased this mare for $400. He is a rising two year old, has some minor problems ,but we all waiting in anticipation.

pedigree below.  What do you think ?

Your mare and a sibling were unraced,also the mare's first foal is yet to race,does that pattern concern you?

[Swynford 121]

yes we were a bit worried when we brought the mare.She is a bit plane. Perhaps took more notice of the female family rather than just the individual. She has done well though, Both foals she has left have been big improvements on herself. Sibling is in work. Our rising two year old a little long in the pastern,

Saw this horse below in Oz some time back and was encouraged, He was favorite for  $3 million Doncaster Hcp for a while but I think rain changed things, Finshed about  7th. Has won 9 from about 13 so still a handy horse.

 

 

[Dibbles 65]

Irishbay have you looked at True Nicks website as you are able to get free reports from any sponsored stallions from their home page. They are linked with every stud book (which Goldmine is not) so you should not have to enter any broodmares and it is up to date. There are a few New Zealand stallions listed, and they also have some interesting articles.

 

www.truenicks.com

[Irishbay 18]

Thanks Dibbles, I will check it out, the more information the better :-)

[Irishbay 18]

I had a  we look Dibbles,  the thing that confused me is that I put the same mating in True nicks and Goldmine.  Goldmine came up with 20/20 and True nicks called it a D. 

[Intowin 0]

my breeding venture at the moment. I chose what I thought is the best blood in the industry and what I think is the best way to breed back to it. And the most economical way to do that. We purchased this mare for $400. He is a rising two year old, has some minor problems ,but we all waiting in anticipation.

pedigree below.  What do you think ?

 

From what i've looked up Zabeel/centiane cross is a big miss. low stakes winners and not a very good strike rate. So sufficent could be the outlier in that bunch. Wonder if it effects the next generation

[Berri 2,131]

my breeding venture at the moment. I chose what I thought is the best blood in the industry and what I think is the best way to breed back to it. And the most economical way to do that. We purchased this mare for $400. He is a rising two year old, has some minor problems ,but we all waiting in anticipation.

pedigree below.  What do you think ?

There's a lot of wet tracker there so the balloon would go up in relation to that. As a type, I really like Sufficient but if I were to slightly fault him, he's slightly long in the pasterns (I'm being picky to true conformation). This is and was a Centaine trait, and a number of Centaine's needed non hard tracks to show their best. I've included a photo of Sufficient so you can see what I mean.

So you've mated a slightly long patterned horse with a Captain Rio mare. Most of the Captain Rio's needed the sting out of the track, as does his sire Pivotal. That's not saying they all do, just the majority. Then you've god the next dam sire being Woodman, who apart from being a non trier (as many of his progeny are), also had slightly long pasterns...a trait of Mr Prospector. Then you've got Riverman, a stallion that fired in France on off tracks and very little else elsewhere. Interestingly enough he sired dirt trackers in the states but they loved that sloppy off track. They too had longish pasterns...and then there is Bellypha, a strong powerfully barrelled horse who was just OK but his sire Lyphard was a renowned off track progeny stallion.

Well that's the way I see it....might be wrong though because genetically, if Zabeel overrides everything else, you'll get a smart miler

[Berri 2,131]

Sufficient

Sufficient.doc

[Swynford 121]

Thanks for your thoughts Berri, and very informative, just a couple of questions, did you take any notice of the female family line breeding pattern or are you just assessing each stallion in the female line.

And is there any thing I can do to get the best out of a horse that is a bit long in the pastern ? 

[Berri 2,131]

Depends on what the pasterns of the mare are like which sounds as though she is slightly long in the pasterns.....otherwise you wouldn't have commented. Stuff that you have to take into consideration is placement of the knee on the front leg. Short cannons with long pasterns is a sign of speed, and if its either straight or back at the knee then long pasterns can be a problem. I'm talking race horses here.

So reach for a stallion with a very strong forearm and a good sloping shoulder, very good knees and feet because horses with long pasterns and shallow feet are a disaster.

As for line breeding, for me conformation of the horse is the most important factor as theoretically what you see is the combination of all the genetic combinations created by three stallions and 40 broodmares. Over time the horse has changed slightly as we've moved away from staying races and moving towards sprinters. I actually think this is short sighted but who am I to tell the powers that be that the amount bet on races has decreased as the relative distance of races has decreased. Thought it was an obvious marker but no-one will listen.

Line breeding has lost its mojo a bit because we've been mating Northern Dancer to Northern Dancer to Northern Dancer like there is no tomorrow. In you Sufficient Devine Rio mating, You've got Nureyev(Northern Dancer) on the top and bottom line, a Nijinsky)Northern Dancer) on the bottom and just to push the point, Lyphard (Northern Dancer) on the bottom as well. Sure you've got Lady Gizelle twice top and bottom but I could show you a Sadlers Wells colt out of a daughter of Detroit mated with Zabeel's sister. It was very slow.

[Swynford 121]

I was referring to how can I look after the the rising two year old not the mare.  No doubt giving him plenty of time will be important.

 

 I don't see our horse's pedigree as saturated with Northern Dancer, He has duplications of Nureyev and Valderna.  It is the positions in the pedigree which I think is important. Pedigree below of a horse with similar pattern. 

 

p.s . The horse that you could show me would't be one of my selections if I had of entered your contest.

[Irishbay 18]

Hi Swinford

What do would you do in a situation where you have something really nice with the Selene on the bottom like above and the pattern has already been tried.  We actually have a mare from the above's family who is by a Sir Tristram sire line stallion.

Do you just reinforce it with other multiples?

[Swynford 121]

if you give me her breeding I will have a look and come back to you

[Irishbay 18]

Hi Swynford  She is Limoux.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/limoux3

She had ability but her manners prevented her from winning more than 2.

Its just sometimes that elusive pattern isn't always there with the mares that are in your paddock.

Maybey it is better to breed for type and those good performance traits that you think will come through, fingers crossed

:-)

[Swynford 121]

If she was my mare and I was trying to breed a good horse to race (not to sell) then this is what I would do.

 

Really like this mating but don't know much about the stallion. but "Hey" they can all leave a good one.  

[Swynford 121]

the best horse by the sire Duelled.  Nice mirror image, Using the male line of the mare to in breed to brood-mare sires in the stallion

[Berri 2,131]

You have to be kidding.......Just Kidding.....27 mares in 4 years at stud....just a race horse....placed at best.....broke down after a placing.....not a true Rory's Jester