Pedigree Analysis and Yearling Sale Selection

[Forrest 78]

You have to be kidding.......Just Kidding.....27 mares in 4 years at stud....just a race horse....placed at best.....broke down after a placing.....not a true Rory's Jester

And if that doesn't set the alarm bells off,his biggest crop of 2010 now 4 year olds, after taking out the missed and dead foals,

Nine live foals and not one named,in fact no progeny of this stallion has even got to the naming stage.

Swynford, which ever orafice you plucked that one out of needs to be closed forever.

[classic one 12]

Have to agree with Berri and Forrest.

 

While nicks and crosses have a factor, race ability has to be one also and Just Kidding is at the bottom of the heap.

 

The cost to train the resulting foal will be the same no matter who the sire is.

 

I suggest going up to the $5,000 to $8,000 service fee range or trying to get a foal share.

And if the reply is the $5k to $8k service fee is too expensive then having a horse in training is going to be far too expensive.

 

Limoux actually has a great pedigree. When giving advice then knowing a bit more about the stallion is very important.

[Swynford 121]

Berri, Forrest, Classic One.   I take your point and agree with it. However this stallion is a full sister to a Golden Slipper runner up so from a good family.  Irishbay is breeding to race, sticking to a budget and in the South Island so options very limited,

 

The pedigree above was in answer to his question "how do you reinforce it ? "   I see nothing wrong with tapping into Sir Tristram blood if you know how to do it.

 

Hi Swinford

What do would you do in a situation where you have something really nice with the Selene on the bottom like above and the pattern has already been tried.  We actually have a mare from the above's family who is by a Sir Tristram sire line stallion.

Do you just reinforce it with other multiples?

 

Learnt at school that it is the goose that lays the Golden egg not the gander. I think Irishbay is sitting on such a Goose. 

[Dopey 214]

Have to agree with Berri and Forrest.

While nicks and crosses have a factor, race ability has to be one also and Just Kidding is at the bottom of the heap.

The cost to train the resulting foal will be the same no matter who the sire is.

I suggest going up to the $5,000 to $8,000 service fee range or trying to get a foal share.

And if the reply is the $5k to $8k service fee is too expensive then having a horse in training is going to be far too expensive.

Limoux actually has a great pedigree. When giving advice then knowing a bit more about the stallion is very important.

Either the stallion got the right genetics passed on in the genetic lottery or he didn't. There is no point trying to breed to lines in horses if they didn't inherit the bits your after. Ask Mendel. Or in other words swynford just because the names are there doesn't mean their influence made it through as it's all about probability of genetic inheritance. I think from memory Mendel implied mating 4 times is required to see your required trait once (statistically). Others may correct me.

[Irishbay 18]

It is interesting getting everyone's opinions on what is a good mating is and why.

I guess when selling horses it is a fashion game  What is viewed as a desirable product by the market at the time.

Ultimately you want to breed something that can run weather you are selling it or racing it your self don't you?

 

I couldn't help ask the question on Limoux as I new she was related to Might and Power.

Hopefully we do have a golden goose.  

The other thing I see when you have young brood mares is that you need to get there stock to the races to find out if there stock can run.  Do you pick early sires who give you a better chance of that first up to give her a better chance?

[Ruby 160]

Hi Irishbay from my limited experience these are my thoughts :-

* Apart from stud fee it costs the same to breed, raise, race a K1 or festival yearling

* For a first foal go to a proven stallion that has produced good winners

* Take into consideration your mares conformation - try to improve it

* Pedigree is only part of the process

* Choose a stallion you like - you may have to keep the progeny for some time

As for an early running 2 year old I do not know what your mares conformation is and did she run as a two year old. Personally I'd rather have a good 3 year old than a 2 year old

Good luck with her - keep us updated

[fitzy 143]

Good advice Louise.

As well as going to a proven sire first up, make sure it's a sire that leaves good types.

If the mare doesn't leave a good type to such a sire you know you're up against it.

[Swynford 121]

Got a couple of questions for Berri, Classic One, and Dopy

 

    If we shouldn't breed from horses that don't perform, and are at the bottom of the heap on the race track or "didn't get the magic gene "  how come mares like Tiona, My Trica,(unraced ) and Benediction have become some of the most outstanding producing mares in New Zealand, Add to that list also Eight Carat who was a world class producer.  Would you have culled these mares ?. 

 

Or does these genetic theories only apply to the male of the species. ?

[Swynford 121]

Irishbay,  

 

Sorry I couldn't find anything hotter amongst the stallions in the South Island that reinforced the bloodlines in your mare in the way I like to do it.  I hope you got the message on the structure of the pedigree.

 

I have looked at the pedigrees of both Might And Power and Octagonal (by the same sire ) many years ago and believe that they have two distinct things in common. 

• Both descend in direct female line to Internalional bloodlines or families that have produced outstanding sires in the past.
   
• Both have duplications on the male line of the first dam.

 

I hope you can find some stallion in the future that fits that pattern. I firmly believe that looking into her pedigree rather than looking at stallion stats will be your quickest root to success.

[Swynford 121]

Octagonal

[Swynford 121]

If money was no object you could send her to the best stallion in the country. He has proven that he can leave a Group One winner.

 

But here are the stats

 

Only about 45 % of those foals win a race. many, (in the 100' s ) never get to the race course.

 

Of those that get to the race course 7.5% become stakes winners.  92.5 % don't

 

Of all his foals born one in 63 becomes a Group One winner.

 

We hail these creatures as Champions, but if one of our brood-mares had the same figures what would she be ?...K3

 

 

[Swynford 121]

LIke Might and Power and Octagonal (and Indy King's only Group One performer)  Silent Achiever descends in direct female line to one of the International sire producing families that of La Troienne.

 

When looking deeper the male line of the first dam has also been duplicated and appears as a brood-mare sire in Pompeii Court. 

[Dopey 214]

Got a couple of questions for Berri, Classic One, and Dopy

If we shouldn't breed from horses that don't perform, and are at the bottom of the heap on the race track or "didn't get the magic gene " how come mares like Tiona, My Trica,(unraced ) and Benediction have become some of the most outstanding producing mares in New Zealand, Add to that list also Eight Carat who was a world class producer. Would you have culled these mares ?.

Or does these genetic theories only apply to the male of the species. ?

So my answer is that racetrack performance may not come through for many reasons be it injury temperament, man made behaviour, lacks of funds,

I'm not sure eight carat raced? But genetics can still be good.

Many good breeders use mares that are unraced. Lessor performed stallions have a harder road.

[classic one 12]

Obviously a number of points to answer, so will answer a few.

Swynford ,You have given pedigree examples of a few good races horses above trying to show pedigree layout and duplications of the male line of the first dam.

I agree the broodmare sire is important but the sire is Zabeel,meaning a Group One race horse, champion sire.

I think Zabeel is a good part of the reason Might and Power and Octagonal were good.

Eight Carat is a direct female tail line descendent of the Mumtaz Begum.

O'Reilly an amazing racehorse and a champion sire.

Therefore are you putting to little (actually nothing) emphasis on the race ability of a sire compared to the sires pedigree layout?

Do you have the statistics on Zabeel with various broodmare lines and sires to show that duplications of the male line of the first dam?

Okay the statistics you have given on O'reilly are correct but isn't one foal is 63 foals becoming a group one winner better than one in a million foals?

There are many stallions in the $5k to $8k range that will increase this broodmares chances.

Did you ask question on what the mares looks like or get some images? How tall is the mare? How much bone, muscle,size, conformation.

Is this stallion a quality individual?

He could have ok bloodlines that he could pass on but will this stallion pass on the same race ability that he had?

[Ashoka 1,179]

In relatively recent times, has there been a champion racehorse of overly nondescript parentage (Bonecrusher and Gay Icarus spring to mind) that has gone on to be a successful sire?

 

Anybody?

Thank you.

 

All the best.

Ashoka

[Catalano 951]

Bonecrusher has terrible sire stats and didn't sire a single winner Ashoka (but I'm sure he would have fun trying!)

[crustyngrizzly 1,700]

Wasn't Bonecrusher a gelding?

I don't think he was in a position to even try.

He didn't have the balls.

[designer 17]

Interesting to see a thread on maternal inbreeding. You nearly always find a massively maternally inbred mare somewhere in the maternal line of good horses - while they may be good themselves, they collect the good genetics and pass them on to the next generation.

Its not the magic bullet but in general the mare should give something to the stallion and vice versa. We profile all the sires to predict which mares they should work best with. Maternal iinbreeding on its own means you need a filly to get the results.

After you get a short list of suitable sires then other factors such as size, temperament, speed, price etc come into the final decision.

Whatever you do its still a low percentage, high risk game.

[Swynford 121]

Obviously a number of points to answer, so will answer a few.

Swynford ,You have given pedigree examples of a few good races horses above trying to show pedigree layout and duplications of the male line of the first dam.

I agree the broodmare sire is important but the sire is Zabeel,meaning a Group One race horse, champion sire.

I think Zabeel is a good part of the reason Might and Power and Octagonal were good.

Eight Carat is a direct female tail line descendent of the Mumtaz Begum.

O'Reilly an amazing racehorse and a champion sire.

Therefore are you putting to little (actually nothing) emphasis on the race ability of a sire compared to the sires pedigree layout?

Do you have the statistics on Zabeel with various broodmare lines and sires to show that duplications of the male line of the first dam?

Okay the statistics you have given on O'reilly are correct but isn't one foal is 63 foals becoming a group one winner better than one in a million foals?

There are many stallions in the $5k to $8k range that will increase this broodmares chances.

Did you ask question on what the mares looks like or get some images? How tall is the mare? How much bone, muscle,size, conformation.

Is this stallion a quality individual?

He could have ok bloodlines that he could pass on but will this stallion pass on the same race ability that he had?

 

Thank you classic one and yes lots of questions to ponder and answer. .Firstly ...  Yes I do put more emphasis on the structure of the pedigree than race performance. And to narrow that further identifying the best bloodlines and how to tap into them perhaps even more.

I think Sir Tristram is a great example.  Not of the best race horse but some great bloodlines in key positions. 

 

The statistics on Zabeel....(stand to be corrected here )  

 

1734 named foals, 1417 runners , 1023 winners,.....43 Group One winners or

 

 1 One Group One winner from every 40 named foals.

 

When crossed with mares from the Man O'War male line as in the example of Octagonal

• Pieces of Eight.   3 named foals        2  Group One  winners .     $7,849,062                    
• Vice Regal          39 named foals      5  Group One  winners.       $10,318,187
• RegalAdvice        1 named foal                                 winner               $365,602
• Sharp Edge         1  named foal                                winner              $170,347
• Vite Cheval          1 named foal                                 winner                $11,719

1 Group One winner every 6.4 named foals.  

 

 

Alarming stats really but understanding pedigrees is way deeper than that.

 

Not sure how to work all these numbers but quick guess this is six or seven times better than Zabeels own average and tens times better than O'Reilly's stats. 

 

I think there is always more ingredients that go into making up these stats but I think it could be safely concluded that Man O'War is carried on the male line of the first dam in both of Zabeels

• Champion performer,
• His most prolific brood-mare cross

[Swynford 121]

Hades

[Ashoka 1,179]

Bonecrusher and, from memory, Gay Icarus were both geldings.

I was referring to their breeding.

Both were outstanding racehorses.

My question...has there been a champion racehorse with no recognised breeding to speak of that has gone on to be a successful sire?

I can't think of one in thoroughbred circles...perhaps Falcon Seelster in the standardbred industry.

 

All the best.

Ashoka

[Berri 2,131]

Choisir, Pivotal, Sharmardal, Sir Tristram

[Catalano 951]

Sorry Ashoka, couldn't resist

[designer 17]

Bonecrusher and, from memory, Gay Icarus were both geldings.

I was referring to their breeding.

Both were outstanding racehorses.

My question...has there been a champion racehorse with no recognised breeding to speak of that has gone on to be a successful sire?

I can't think of one in thoroughbred circles...perhaps Falcon Seelster in the standardbred industry.

 

All the best.

Ashoka

I think Falcon Seelster would be mortally offended

[fitzy 143]

Choisir, Pivotal, Sharmardal, Sir Tristram

 

Berri not sure if you are joking or just confused.

 

Choisir - by Danehill Dancer, sire of 150+ SW. Dam by Lunchtime, Grandam by Biscay.

Shardamal - by Giants Causeway, sire of 140 + SW.

Sir T - by Sir Ivor, sire of 90+ SW (in a different breeding age than today), and rated one of the best 3YO's of last century.

 

Surely Star Way would be the better example than Sir T? Both fail the champion racehorse criteria however.

 

I think we can safely agree they are all better than Tights