Properispomenon 1 Report post Posted June 22, 2010 Well done, Von Cettes and Bradez, for thrashing the pants off the rest of us... I realise that being dead and dusted I have no rights, ha, in the competition anymore but I'd like to see the status quo format run its course... Just to see how long it can go... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunlineboy 131 Report post Posted June 22, 2010 Thats mighty generous of you Von. We'll see what Brad thinks about the format. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradez 5 Report post Posted June 22, 2010 G,day Sunny Iv'e got a suggestion, we'll have to run it past Brad first. This weekend since we have 2 lives left we make 2 selections, (to speed things up), but they cannot be the same selection/team, the person who posts first has that selection/team. However you can change your mind or cancel your selection right up to kick off, as sometimes the elements can have a huge bearing on the outcome. Once one person has lost a life we revert back to 1 selection per week. Now if I win Sunny, and it's a big if, as Bradez is a worthy opponent. This is what we'll do with the $50, I will make 1 selection per week for 9 weeks, if I get 9 in a row(based on a $1-85 selection) we will have just over 12 thousand for which 5 will be for you and 5 for me, the other 2k I will get you to hold onto until next season, I will run a similar comp, with a twist to it next year that will run from the start of the Super 14 season right through to the Semi Finals of the NRL, 2 players per week will be eliminated and the winner will recieve the 2k, i won't go into details about it as it probably won't happen. 1) Bradez will probably beat me OR 2) I will be pushing to get 9 in a row But it's worth a shot. Anyway always look forward to this comp, good onya for reinventing it Sunny. Cheers Darryl Good luck Brad ill do the same. if i win ill select a game for 8 or 9 weeks. ill give von 20 percent, sunny 20 percent, ill take 40 percent and ill leave 20 percent in a 'kitty' for a similiar comp in terms of picking 2 this week. happy to do so. you pick 1, ill pick 1. you pick another 1, ill pick another 1. (ill let you go first because apparently I 'copied' you last week) if you agree with this, make your selection at any point. i will then follow. if you want points start you dont have to quote the line until it is made available. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Von Cettes 678 Report post Posted June 22, 2010 in terms of picking 2 this week. happy to do so. you pick 1, ill pick 1. you pick another 1, ill pick another 1. (ill let you go first because apparently I 'copied' you last week) if you agree with this, make your selection at any point. i will then follow. if you want points start you dont have to quote the line until it is made available. Brad don't wait for me to tip first, just tip when your ready, You may fancy something of Friday night and waiting for me is not clever. Tip whenever your ready mate! If I get 8/9 in a row I'll get Sunny to send some your way as well. Good luck Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunlineboy 131 Report post Posted June 23, 2010 Sounds good.. Good luck guys. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kloppite 313 Report post Posted June 23, 2010 how has Picket Form Fencelines 'logic' stood up? :cool: Not perfect, but not too bad. The 50:50 probability tree suggested a winner in week 8. 6 weeks gone and only two people left, however they both have two lives. One of them would need to be wrong two weeks running to resolve this in week 8. The two of them have beaten the odds. Good luck Von with the 9 weeks in a row. Roughly a 1 in 500 chance for a cumulative dividend of around $280 (assuming $1.87 price each week). Of course this highlights the fundamental problem with multi bets, and why the TAB like them so much. The TAB's expected margin on a single 50:50 game (where the dividend for both teams is $1.87) is 6.5%. Multi two such bets and their margin becomes 12.6%, three and it becomes 18.3%, ......... You know the odds, now don't take multis!! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradez 5 Report post Posted June 24, 2010 lol @ how long the TAB take to put the points start up Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Von Cettes 678 Report post Posted June 24, 2010 Good luck Von with the 9 weeks in a row. Roughly a 1 in 500 chance for a cumulative dividend of around $280 (assuming $1.87 price each week). Yes 9 weeks in a row 512-1 But now the chances of 9 in a row for Bradez or myself is 8-1. Your probability theory was pretty much bang on, i myself thought 7 weeks. Yes a $50 cumulative wager based on $1-87 dividend over 9 weeks would net you a return of $13,981, thats with the NZ Tab. Now if you placed the same cumulative bet over 9 weeks with most other gaming offices you get $1-91 for each line. Based on this figure even though it is only 4 cents higher your return for the 9 weeks is $16,914 which is $2933 better off in your pocket, based on 4 cents thats right 4 cents you end up with almost 3 thousand more dollars. Now if you started with a $100 bank you could do it in 8 weeks which reduces your odds from 512-1 to 256-1. But if my Aunty had she would then be my Uncle. But you were pretty much spot on there PFF. Well 9 in a row well that's pretty much wishful thinking but worth a shot, it's exciting trying Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunlineboy 131 Report post Posted June 24, 2010 Well both of you have done 6 in a row so thats pretty nice! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...