Irishbay

PAKISTAN II (GB) Ch. H. 1958

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Come on guys...get real. The industry started with 3 stallions and 30 mares. This has been diluted dramatically over recent generations because of fashion and the number of mares a stallion now covers. I could show you 20 pedigrees that held the same crosses that you have indicated and they are no good. It's so easy to be Harry Hindsight but I would challenge you the other way around. Give us some pedigrees of some yearlings that you have selected and we'll follow them to see how right you are. You could do it with yearlings sold at Karaka this year so that we can follow them up in the coming season.

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The proof is in the pudding, Only three breeders using this technology at the moment, all small operations with very limited amount of mares. They have paid me for much of their information. Results so far TWO  Australian Derby's, (one from a Yearling Sale selection) 

the other home breed, and a New Zealand Horses of the Year.  Bred from an unfashionable mare. All told over $6 million in prize money. Group One placings include Caulfield Cup, Auckland Cup and Cox Plate.  This is a horse forum so look a gift horse in the mouth if you wish. I respect your opinion. 

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Swynford it is good to have your contributions here. Your observations are interesting  though neither new or unique. I have to agree with Berri , these kinds of patterns can be found in all strata of racing, many a horse anchored in the maiden ranks or one race winners will also have these patterns.

 

Using your examples as a starting point I have come to the conclusion that that the method/model presented is cherry picked to suit the argument , unfortunately the method does not stand up on close scrutiny and the results are no better  than a scattered shotgun approach.

 

Menow is a great horse to line breed with. He was a top class two year old in England.

 

I believe that the duplication of him below,  (on the male line of the second dam and appearing twice in broodmare sire positions in both Royal Academy and his sire Nijinsky )  along with the close inbreeding to Vain (not sex balanced ) contributed much to this mares ability. 

 

I would contend  that the reason for the success of Black Caviar can be attributed to her dam Helsingle. Helsingle is one of those rare mares that come along that can produce champions to almost any sire. The cross that produced Black Caviar has not had anywhere near the same level of success when repeated with 13 other mares.

 

For the record to the cover of Bel Esprit 14 individual daughters of Desert Sun have produced 19 progeny of racing age, 13 have raced of which 9 have won. Black Caviar remains the only stakes winner to date for the cross, the rest of the horses bred this way have been pretty modest racehorses, not one has placed in stakes company. Even the inclusion of Vain in the equation has not made a jot of difference to the ability of those other progeny bred on the cross and thus far, there have been four to the races out of mares (other than Helsingle) by Desert Sun with a strain of Vain in their make up. Two of the four horses bred on this pattern have been unplaced and two have won one race apiece.

 

Amongst some of the other Bel Esprit / Desert Sun cross horses that did not have a Vain duplication there have been a number that have had “Menow” factor plus distant relative Sir Ivor. The best of them has been a winner of 2 races.

 

With all respect I find that the approach discussed here is too broad which lends itself to loose interpretation and  maybe conveniently so.

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Thanks for your opinion Henri, sorry can't agree with shotgun. Thought my analysis was very defined.                         

The real issue here is Irishbay's desire to understand line breeding more in depth, and find a mate for his mare. I have given him two insights into methods that have worked. 

 

  • Most stallions are vulnerable when duplicating the broodmare sires in their female line.

     
  • The Mirror method

 

Looking at the pedigree of HARP a stand out in your mares pedigree my methods are right on track 

 

 

 

       

   

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So all I have asked for is that you nominate 10 yearlings from the select yearling sales that pass the mustard using your technology. Post the lot numbers, give us the pedigrees and why and we'll follow them and make a party out of it. That way we'll all know. Must work both ways....1 selecting mares and stallions and the other identifying others who have done is correctly.....go on....give it a go

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It seems to me there are a few different breeding theory's out there and I am sure there are examples of champions and failures for each one. Then there is the the feeding and rearing and handling. I guess choosing the stallion is the first step. For me it would be nice to increase the odds in any way I can.

For our mare I had thought of Danzighill due to his good stats, the Danehill factor and that Pins and Danzighill are similar on the female side. I guess this mating would offer that mirror image up close any way.

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Done this challenge before years ago, (I think it was with Hoof Beats magazine and Susan Archer,) A number of  pedigree analysists where asked to choose five horses from the sales. I was given about a week to do my research. I predicted then 20 % strike rate of stakes winners and I delivered.  Takes at least a months work to do what you ask. And for what reason. Just to please you. Please show me 20 pedigrees that are similar as the one below, a mirror image using the male lines of the mare and broodmare sires in the stallion.

 

 

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And just like O'Reilly and his Caulfield Cup winner I think most stallions have a weak spot and that is inbreeding to the broodmare sires in their female line. I think this horse won a Caulfield Cup too. What do we have to loose from giving it a try.

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I learnt a lot from a man years ago and he didn't win the Caulfied Cup and I don't think he was Sobar either,

He said "We all learn from each other"  and I think Race Cafe is a great place to do that.

Hope you breed a good horse Irisbay. So many are leaving an industry that can be so much fun

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For what its worth Swynford i appreciated your posts and thoughts......and some like myself and family business partners are not leaving the industry but instead trying to make a real go of it, in the hope of at the very least creating a self sustaining business away from our current everyday jobs, hence always nice to get insights into others thoughts and views. Cheers

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For what its worth Swynford i appreciated your posts and thoughts......and some like myself and family business partners are not leaving the industry but instead trying to make a real go of it, in the hope of at the very least creating a self sustaining business away from our current everyday jobs, hence always nice to get insights into others thoughts and views. Cheers

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Thanks Swynford, thats the goal, we know it may not be a good investment breeding a racehorse, but it is a good challenge.  Seems to me there are less people breeding these days. Probably difficuilt for a small breeder to make money, we are happy to race them and if we are able to make money at some point well that would be nice.  Hopefully that one good horse comes our way :-)

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 Irishbay.  

 

 Encharm/ Danzighill.       good to see you have put some thought into the mating and yes you have come up with a mirror image,  Just a little worried about a couple of things,

 

The male line of the first dam hasn't really been duplicated in any way ( to me a bit like leaving the front door wide open).

 

Secondly the duplications are very close and if there was a female line in there   eg   (Kaoru Stars sister or cousin) I would perhaps jump at it but a little unsure with this one. 

 

Did see a little connection with Pakistain though. The horse Alibhai, brood-mare sire to His Majesty is out of Pakistain's third dam Teresina.  Might balance the mating and be just what you looking for.

 

 

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Nice to have someone offering their opinions - breeding is such a tricky business and there are many theories behind it - if one theory worked then everyone would be breeding a winner!!

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Hey Swynford, thanks for your opinion on Danzighill.  Ive been aware of his similarity with Pins for a while as we have a Spectacular Phantom mare and would love to breed a horse as good as Katie lee :-).  Our budget is really confined to the South Island for Encharm.  ive had a look at few but may need to dedicate a bit more time to wade through the pedigrees.  No I didnt spot the hook up with Pakistan.  Some of the stud sites have Goldmine, which I find handy as I dont have anything else at the mo.

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Bruce.. couple of things to consider

 

have you considered getting in family or friends on your breeding venture. I know there are down sides but many who have succeeded today started out that way. 

 

If the mainland is limited a bit on stallions, rather than trying to find the perfect stallion for your mare why not do it the other way round.  If you have a stallion that you really like and you are breeding to race then look for the perfect mare. Commercial appeal is not a factor here so they probably will be a dime a dozen. (Jimmy Choux was breed a little along these lines) Its a bit like playing cards, we all stick to the what we have in our hand and try to make the best of it but there are under utilized mares out there.

 

Is there a stallion that you are really set on in your area.?

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Condor and Irishbay...

 

All the very best to you both and to all your associates in the breeding and racing of thoroughbreds.

You are all doing what you enjoy doing and that is what really counts.

 

Cheers.

Ashoka

Hey thanks Ashoka it's all about enjoying life :-), there is a bit of work involved but I enjoy a challenge;-)

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Bruce.. couple of things to consider

 

have you considered getting in family or friends on your breeding venture. I know there are down sides but many who have succeeded today started out that way. 

 

If the mainland is limited a bit on stallions, rather than trying to find the perfect stallion for your mare why not do it the other way round.  If you have a stallion that you really like and you are breeding to race then look for the perfect mare. Commercial appeal is not a factor here so they probably will be a dime a dozen. (Jimmy Choux was breed a little along these lines) Its a bit like playing cards, we all stick to the what we have in our hand and try to make the best of it but there are under utilized mares out there.

 

Is there a stallion that you are really set on in your area.?

Good evening Swynford, my partner and I are in 2 horses who are racing with friends and we have a lot of fun travelling around following our Ggs. We are very excited at the moment as we have one that my better half bred about to step out (fingers crossed). Between us we have two mares to foal this year and then we have 2 mares we plan on mating next season. We won't be able to afford to mate every mare every year but if we do it in a managed and measured way hopefully some results will come. We probably have a full hand at the mo :-)

There are a few good stallions locally so it would be nice to find one close, just keeping an open mind in the South Island for Encharm.

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