RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Berri

Tavistock

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Interesting points. I am undecided whether exporting a sizable proportion of a stallions good early crop stock to Asia is a plus or a minus. It seems a lot (percentage wise) of Tavistocks progeny, especially those who show ability, are heading that way and considering HK especially honing in on certain breeds that the good males may potentially race in Asia. Is this limiting the availability and commercial appeal of his male stock and if so do NZ breeders need to secure high end Tavistock colts as they come up and allow them an opportunity to race in Australia and also to potentially breed to them if they choose? Is HK, Singapore racing detrimental to a young stallions status or is it a great thing considering the demand and profit to be made from selling to Asia? It seems a catch 22 when you compare export with enriching stallion ranks and allowing a NZ stallion to potentially be a force in Australia. Would a sire like Zabeel for instance, developing his stud career today have as much of an impact in the public eye if he was having the likes of Might and Power and Octagonal exported? I'm not saying it is a bad thing having strong commercial demand on a stallions stock but would this hinder the industry breeding wise going forward or is it a moot point? 

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That is the nature of today's market Canelo.  With the influence on Australian racing of Asian runners, especially Japan, these days it is the nature of the beast.   There is no reason why it should be detrimental.  We see runners for the Melbourne Cup and lead up races,  from NZ, Asia and the UK.    If you have a yearling that is competitive, who are we to judge where it might find it's utopia - other than its breeding lines - if it has a staying or soft track background then maybe the dirt/sand tracks in Asia might be its calling.

 

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I've got a sneaking suspicion that Asia is going to start to play a bigger role in NZ racing within the next 10 years. It is probable that betting licenses are to be granted over the next 5 years in China or states associated with China. So having representatives of NZ bred horses is important, as is creating and maintaining an improved breed of horse.

In Germany you cannot have a stallion introduced to the stud book that has been given performance enhancing drugs (bute, cobalt, steroids etc) or any wind affliction etc. What you now see are unbelievably sound horses great performers who bat so far above the average on the international market that its not funny. We've seen some of their breed in the form of the last two Melbourne Cup winners in Fiorente and Protectionist.

Now in NZ we out breed the Aussies horse for horse. We have approx. 5-6% of the overall race horse population in Australia but we win approx. 20 odd percent of the stakes races. What would be interesting is if the stallions and broodmares located in Australia were moved to NZ, would they be better horses?.....interesting argument.

So back to Tavistock....doesn't matter what is up and coming in Aussie because Tavistock, from average mares, has produced a type that are good enough to beat some of the best in Australia. We know there's more to come and that turn of foot they have is a sign of very very good horses. Only good stallions produce that sort of horse.

So what should be done? Make some seriously good progeny using the information that we already know. We know that they click with Zabeel mares, so why not grab the best bred and the best producing Zabeel mares. We also know that Sadlers Wells clicks amazingly well with Danehill mares, so we've got that option. What we need to do is appeal to the international market to ensure the appeal is unified and that if any of his sons become fantastic horses, then the sire line continues with the best of the blood in tact. Lets take a leaf out of the German theory and take a couple of steps forward.

I might just look at it.

 

 

 

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Berri

Taking up your comments from your first post on this topic re the European bloodlines. Firstly I agree with others that there are now a number of well bred European mares appearing down here , Australia in particular , so there are opportunities there.

But what would be the possibility of "shuttling" Tavistock to Europe for a couple of seasons to maybe have an organised mating season or two -- don't necessarily have him open to all comers but to cover a selected few mares from interested owners (eg. the Aga Khan) or to selected leased mares etc. ?  The progeny would have to race up there to develop their credentials --obviously another "deep pocket" exercise.

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 Just had a very quick scan through the Tattersall's Dec sale to see what could possibly be bought to meet Berri's ideas and the cost of doing it.

Here are a couple with German bloodlines involved :

http://docs.tattersalls.com/cat/december/mares/2015/1795.pdf       Passed for Eu 85,000

http://docs.tattersalls.com/cat/december/mares/2015/1961.pdf       Sold for Eu 105,000

Note the sire of the second one is Samum. His dam is interesting, having very similar breeding to Montjeu , so a Samum broodmare would be worth looking at for the exercise, if anyone was willing to try it.

 

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I personally don't think the mares you have put forward are not good enough for sire making mares. We are obsessed with the notion that a horse has to be mature enough to race successfully at the highest level (stakes will do) at two and then improve at three to win a sire shaping race. Ultimately we need to have that horse be able to race over a range of distances with 2000 - 2400m being the extreme of those distances. So we need to choose mares accordingly with the knowledge that the stallion needs to be covering mares that suit the stallion and improve the breed. So its limiting introducing bloodlines that are already saturating the gene pool (Danzig/ Danehill blood comes to mind).

So the group of mares needs to take into account all of these factors, as well as the normality of conformation and temperament because to race a colt, it must have a great attitude.

The next problematic issue is training. NZ training systems, generally speaking, are not geared for colts. You have to manage them differently but our problem is we geld everything that is a slight problem. Yes Aussie has a different take on this but NZ hasn't adjusted quite yet

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 Fair comments Berri. In my quick look I was just looking for German bloodlines with a reasonable pedigree, to primarily see what the cost could be. I didn't look at the 2year old wins in particular, but on saying that, as you would be aware you have to be careful with European 2yr old form as some of their races are 1600mt + races for 2yr olds --- that I think it is a plus in that it shows the horse matures physically reasonably quickly and has potential staying ability. Whether the race is a stakes race or not is irrelevant. ( I maybe be wrong but I think Sir Tristram won one of his two races as a two year old, over distance)

Back to the quality of mare --if a better quality than these examples is needed then it suggests buying through breeding stock sales is not the way to go. ( I'm not trying to defend the choices as I only put them up as examples with German bloodlines). Maybe a group of investors could pool their money and buy 5-6 fillies during or after their 2-3 year old seasons , continue to race them in Europe to prove their real worth (cull some if necessary afterwards) and then bring them back to NZ for breeding.

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A good group one colt with a good pedigree is now worth NZ$5-10m. An exceptional colt is NZ$20-40 with the same pedigree parameters. Naturally you could buy fillies in training but the real event is breeding here. The faster the progeny are produced, the sooner the chance of creating a good one.

So here goes an extra set of thoughts...

Would seem that a horse with a turn of foot can be expressed as top class. Also seems as though horses with a turn of foot  make good So also have to find a pedigree that has progeny who have turns of foot as a standard (of course, still need to have a mixture). So mares from France suit as long as the family also goes on firm track (France can have off tracks).

So only using Tattersalls, what about these:

lot 1532..winner and placed 5 times from only 6 starts, By a champion stallion Oasis Dream, dam a group 3 winner, half sister to group one winning filly, sister to listed winner (Gp placed), 5 breeding fillies under the first dam (good for future), Frankel colt to come (jury is out on him), second dam a group winner, Family of Dominant (Hong Kong Vase winner) Sold for 420,000gns

Why this one?...probably quite a good horse, nice pedigree, good type, would create the Sadlers Wells / Danzig cross (seriously prepotent) but not too close as to rule out Danehill mares

lot 1603 By Derby winner, has already produced a group one winner, dam a half sister to Dewhurst winner, Second dam produced a champion in the States. In foal to potentially good sire (I like Bated Breath). Sold for 110,000gns

Lot 1612 Stakes placed, Dam of Zacinto (standing in the South Island and he was a good horse), Dam a champion 2 year old who went on and won the Oaks, Great family. Sold for 150,000gns

 

and there are plenty more.....if you're looking to make a stallion using Tavistock.

 

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Good morning Berri,

I think all three you picked out have their merits but I think they would be going away from your hope of getting a stallion to produce 2000+ performers.

Incahoots has the same cross as Power ( sprinter/miler).

New Orchid obviously brings in the extra Quest for Fame line which I think Sir Patrick believes gives Tavistock his turn of foot.

Ithaca --I agree Zacinto is a good prospect but again he was best over sprint/mile distances.

All three would be Ok ( on paper) for Tavistock, in my view, but not necessarily to produce stayers.

I spent some time last night looking at day 1 of the Premier Sale catalogue. I think there are a couple of NZ based mares who could fit your criteria. Have a look at Lot 67 and particularly Lot 75 --again maybe you are not necessarily going to get stayers all the time but Sinndar was a top class Derby horse and I think the Grand Lodge connection would be great for Tavistock .

BTW. I seem to recall you was the one who came on RaceCafe pushing Pour Moi after his Derby win. Looking at what his is doing already at the trials and races and also looking at some of the breeding taking place (ie. from what I've seen in the catalogues) I think you picked a winner. I certainly would not have thought his progeny would be up and going so early --I hope they are not being pushed too fast.

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I wasn't advocating producing stayers. I was advocating creating an internationally acceptable pedigree that had the potential to make a good racing colt that would become acceptable to be an internationally acceptable stallion. Therefore I'm into creating a racehorse that could be successful at two and improve at three, even to four. I just picked three pedigrees out of 30 that seemed to cross OK with Tavistock. I didn't think they were too expensive.

I love Sinndar as a horse but as a stallion he is quite dour. Grand Lodge (for me) has an element of un-genuineness so this has to be carefully considered.

In respect of Pour Moi, I was asked to compare the Sadlers Wells line stallions (in particular Montjeus), standing at stud in NZ and provide comment. I think I commented on Gallant Guru, Pour Moi, Metre de Jeu, Gorky Park and Guillotine.

My comments were that Pour Moi was a first class racehorse whose form could be franked to Aussie form and it looked good.

On the breed, of interest is that Rip Van Winkle produces very nice types but things have moved extremely slowly. It would seem that an agreement has been reached with the southern hemisphere not to send him back to the northern hemisphere. I know the filly won the other day but I would hope (and expect) a few more to come out of the woodwork in due course

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1 hour ago, Breeder said:

Sorry my mistake --on re reading your Saturday post you did say 2000 -2400 being the extreme of those distances.

Berri as a harness fan and seeing what A.I. did to the American harness breeding industry in shrinking the gene pool to what we see now.

Why has not the "shuttle" stallion been replaced by frozen sperm instead. It seems to me that your industry as grown to the point of ridiculousness in the shear numbers of sires on offer. And the German idea of weeding out certain genetic faults does seems somewhat proactive. Someone on here mentioned the amount of wind problems with our horses,predominantly from certain lines. Do we end up like the Cruffs dog show, if nothing is done?,and it becomes a lolly scramble to decifer which breed will withstand the rigors of racing. An example is Cauthen. Destined for greater things,needed a wind opp and busted his pelvis from which he may never race again. Inherent flaws ,weak bones.

I think Tavistock has done over and above that which the owners could ever have hoped for. His original owners are now breeding from him,such is the excitement.

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5 hours ago, bloke said:

I am sure Mrs Ed has those stats Canelo given that she is such a huge fan of Tavistock:P

I reasoned her internet connection must have been cut off so slipped a prepaid self addressed envelope under the door of her caravan but can't be bothered waiting for her to send it back.

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It is interesting to note that Complacent ( one of the new horses going to Mapperley) has some similarities in his pedigree to Tavistock.

Tavistock --Montjeu over a Quest for Fame mare

Complacent --a son of Montjeu over a Quest for Fame mare.

So if Tavistock's fee is raised quite high ( as it should on his performance to date) then there is an alternative for breeders to look at, assuming Complacent is reasonably priced.

NB. I have nothing to do with Mapperley or the horse.

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1 hour ago, Breeder said:

It is interesting to note that Complacent ( one of the new horses going to Mapperley) has some similarities in his pedigree to Tavistock.

Tavistock --Montjeu over a Quest for Fame mare

Complacent --a son of Montjeu over a Quest for Fame mare.

So if Tavistock's fee is raised quite high ( as it should on his performance to date) then there is an alternative for breeders to look at, assuming Complacent is reasonably priced.

NB. I have nothing to do with Mapperley or the horse.

Spot on Breeder.....he was a VERY gutsy horse and this is a great opportunity for NZ breeders to access some of the very successful yet fast diminishing Woodlands/Inghams blood...which for some reason Darley seem hellbent on removing from their OZ operation.   Whilst Contributer will be "fashionable" i.e.European and  a son of HC, Complacent is a proven Southern Hemisphere performer - he was tough and honest.. if you've got a Volksraad mare, get on the queue....

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Everyone is different but I prefer Complacent's 3 yo form compared to Contributer's 3 yo form.

I don't think you can compare Tavistock that closely to Complacent.

Tavistock had much more speed. He was a 1400m horse while.

Complacent was a 2000 horse who could show a bit more at a 1600m if the track was soft.

Tavistock also a different shape.

 

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Contributor was a far better horse than Complacent. Great action with a good turn of foot. Very much in the Its a Dundeel/ Toronado mould. As a three year old Contributer ran second to Magician in the Dee Stakes (Gp3) who won the Irish 2000 Guineas at his next start before winning the Breeders Cup Turf.

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