dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted February 23, 2014 I laughed when I saw the bookies had this dog at $1.45ff this morning as it was quite a good field and being a first starter. Just before race start time he was into $1.35ff. I didn't know anything about him apart from the fact he had won a trial at Wanganui in 17.88 over 305m. He wins today by the length of the straight in 21.46. Must have been 40 percent fit or improved a lot since. How many dogs run a c5 time on debut? There are very few stand out dogs at the moment, this dog looks to be one. kiwiozpom 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
lad27 404 Report post Posted February 23, 2014 Someone maybe able to tell us the maiden track record out there Dusty. dustydreamnz 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mmmyb 277 Report post Posted February 24, 2014 Next big thing.. Bernie was very patient and has done an amazing job. Well done Bernie. This dog will go places. I do hope he gets beaten a couple of times before he reaches C5. Dogs that go straight through the grades usually struggle when they get C5. Magic bolt. Dog to follow in the near future! howrude and dustydreamnz 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
alltheway!!! 640 Report post Posted February 24, 2014 The track looks like its on fire today howrude 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ate 20 Report post Posted February 24, 2014 I laughed when I saw the bookies had this dog at $1.45ff this morning as it was quite a good field and being a first starter. Just before race start time he was into $1.35ff. I didn't know anything about him apart from the fact he had won a trial at Wanganui in 17.88 over 305m. He wins today by the length of the straight in 21.46. Must have been 40 percent fit or improved a lot since. How many dogs run a c5 time on debut? There are very few stand out dogs at the moment, this dog looks to be one. dusty, you get out of bed to late. opened at 3,50ff GONSTA 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted February 24, 2014 dusty, you get out of bed to late. opened at 3,50ff Seriously? If that's right the bookies would have lost a storey on their building! That would be the biggest move I've heard of on our TAB. Yep, I'm never up early. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ate 20 Report post Posted February 24, 2014 Seriously? If that's right the bookies would have lost a storey on their building! That would be the biggest move I've heard of on our TAB. Yep, I'm never up early. first time i have seen a dog win a qualy trial in 17.88 and open at 3.50. im sure if it was ahern runner it would have been 1.90 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jibberer 139 Report post Posted February 24, 2014 $1.90 ! me thinks it would be closer to $1.30 !!! lol pilli 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
henery 35 Report post Posted February 24, 2014 Yeah very good dog agree with you ate if it was a different trainer like u say would of been 1.60 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted February 24, 2014 I agree that whoever trains the dog has an impact on their price. 17.88 is not an exceptional qualifying time though so to be $1.35ff on closing plenty knew how good this dog was. It was one of the great debuts I've seen, fastest time of the day. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
alltheway!!! 640 Report post Posted February 24, 2014 On trial day, if your dog can break 18.00 at wanganui it is flying Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
alltheway!!! 640 Report post Posted February 24, 2014 On trial day, if your dog can break 18.00 at wanganui it is flying Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted February 24, 2014 On trial day, if your dog can break 18.00 at wanganui it is flying 17.88 is respectable but plenty of dogs especially from the Ahern kennel have broken 17.80 in the past, the tracks have been slower lately though. Also there's no doubt some trainers don't have their dogs fully wound up on trial day. The other thing was the trial was in December so chances are he's got quicker since. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nadzeya Ostapchuk 40 Report post Posted February 24, 2014 And yet that Boston dog of Freemans opened at $2 at Cambridge last week in useful field after running 22;40?? ish in a quali trial. And ran like it on race day too. dustydreamnz 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted February 24, 2014 Surely too much is put on the breeding and trainer in regards to price. Boston Mona is a half to Boston Chanel, unplaced again yesterday. I'm backing the smaller trainers' more and more because even though they tend to win less you get better value. modest mouse 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedley 1,900 Report post Posted February 25, 2014 ..and the track surface resurrection..rectifying the few probs there'd been, has been a bourne out resounding success facilitating kind surefooted tractions and glides. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedley 1,900 Report post Posted February 25, 2014 ..i did think the field packs were quite nimble amongst themselves at times., expecting to see checkings..but then finding none., not withstanding the normal checkings occuring of course., i've found myself observing that way from seeming to've seen and read and even veiwed a bit of remedial work before a race having begun last week there somewheres., ..the track might 'fly' now..with it's procuring held in a more perfect state that it is currently Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
alltheway!!! 640 Report post Posted February 25, 2014 Tracks are always slower on trial days, no matter how you look at it dustydreamnz 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiknsmack 485 Report post Posted February 25, 2014 Surely too much is put on the breeding and trainer in regards to price. Boston Mona is a half to Boston Chanel, unplaced again yesterday. I'm backing the smaller trainers' more and more because even though they tend to win less you get better value. It'd be interesting to come up with a definition of "large trainer" and then see if, by betting on dogs trained by anyone other than these large trainers, you can make a profit long term. I think you're right that dogs from the big kennels tend to be overbet. Looking at February's Palmy meetings the Big Three local kennels (Ahern, McInerney, Freeman-Turnwald) had a strikerate of 14.2% (vs 11.8% for everyone else) but a loss on turnover (assuming $1w on each runner) of 17.1% (vs 12.6% for everyone else). So they have a slightly better strikerate than average (they provided 35.4% of February's runners and 39.6% of the winners) but an inferior %POT ($1w on every dog returns a loss of 14.2%, $1w on every Big Three dog returns a loss of 17.1%). It's a very small sample so whether it holds up longer-term I don't know. Yankiwi, dustydreamnz and GONSTA 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GONSTA 1,148 Report post Posted February 25, 2014 It'd be interesting to come up with a definition of "large trainer" and then see if, by betting on dogs trained by anyone other than these large trainers, you can make a profit long term. I think you're right that dogs from the big kennels tend to be overbet. Looking at February's Palmy meetings the Big Three local kennels (Ahern, McInerney, Freeman-Turnwald) had a strikerate of 14.2% (vs 11.8% for everyone else) but a loss on turnover (assuming $1w on each runner) of 17.1% (vs 12.6% for everyone else). So they have a slightly better strikerate than average (they provided 35.4% of February's runners and 39.6% of the winners) but an inferior %POT ($1w on every dog returns a loss of 14.2%, $1w on every Big Three dog returns a loss of 17.1%). It's a very small sample so whether it holds up longer-term I don't know. Love your work mate! I'd be interested in the % of runners vs % of winners excluding the McInerney runners out of your sample? dustydreamnz 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiknsmack 485 Report post Posted February 26, 2014 12.5% strikerate for J T McInerney. 10.6% of Palmy's February runners, 10.4% of winners. 18.8% loss on turnover. So a lower strikerate than the big three combined, and also lower than average (if you're thinking "12.5% = 1/8th" you're right, but there are less than 8 dogs per race on average (7.90) so 12.5% is slightly below average). A better rate of winners to runners than the "small" trainers, but a much greater %LOT too. So Ahern and Freeman/Turnwald combined provided 24.8% of the runners and 29.2% of the winners. 14.9% strikerate. Still a 16.4% loss on turnover though. Of course these are even smaller samples than lumping the big three in together (Team McInerney had 40 dogs over four meetings, the other two combined had 94) so they're even less reliable. dustydreamnz and GONSTA 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrude 108 Report post Posted February 26, 2014 I got up extra early to make sure I got it on fixed....If the TAB is going off the time it shows, then shouldn't we all get it at the same price. I was on at 8.27am, waiting, refreshing, and at 8.30, I never got the $3.50 advertised, it came up as $1.90.....Same time as everyone else, yet totally different price. I got quite a shock when I saw it had opened at $3.50 when at 8.30am it was showing $1.90...Cant understand this.... Is definitely going to be a dog to follow, a few unhappy people at how good the dog actually is, going off the sourness of some on course, but I put that down to jealousy! "It wont last long with him, blah blah blah" "He'll ruin it blah blah blah"... GOOD ON YA BERNIE!!!! Mike Martin, dustydreamnz and GONSTA 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GONSTA 1,148 Report post Posted February 26, 2014 I got up extra early to make sure I got it on fixed....If the TAB is going off the time it shows, then shouldn't we all get it at the same price. I was on at 8.27am, waiting, refreshing, and at 8.30, I never got the $3.50 advertised, it came up as $1.90.....Same time as everyone else, yet totally different price. I got quite a shock when I saw it had opened at $3.50 when at 8.30am it was showing $1.90...Cant understand this.... Is definitely going to be a dog to follow, a few unhappy people at how good the dog actually is, going off the sourness of some on course, but I put that down to jealousy! "It wont last long with him, blah blah blah" "He'll ruin it blah blah blah"... GOOD ON YA BERNIE!!!! Name and shame!! dustydreamnz 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nadzeya Ostapchuk 40 Report post Posted February 26, 2014 I got up extra early to make sure I got it on fixed....If the TAB is going off the time it shows, then shouldn't we all get it at the same price. I was on at 8.27am, waiting, refreshing, and at 8.30, I never got the $3.50 advertised, it came up as $1.90.....Same time as everyone else, yet totally different price. I got quite a shock when I saw it had opened at $3.50 when at 8.30am it was showing $1.90...Cant understand this.... Is definitely going to be a dog to follow, a few unhappy people at how good the dog actually is, going off the sourness of some on course, but I put that down to jealousy! "It wont last long with him, blah blah blah" "He'll ruin it blah blah blah"... GOOD ON YA BERNIE!!!! Mine time stamped 8;32 Howrude at $3-50. Time for a new clock???? howrude 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Martin 200 Report post Posted February 26, 2014 Maybe it's the big punter versus smaller one mentioned in an earlier post hedley 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
