dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 5, 2013 In Race 1 at Christchurch today My Little Oah was sent out paying $2.00 on the tote with a record of 6 wins from 50 starts in his career and 1 from 27 on the track. Admitedly nothing in the field had a great winning strike rate but I just couldn't see how he deserved to be anywhere near even money and predictably he got rolled. Not a complaint at all, I'm happy to back against those. I'll take those sort of odds but with a dog that has a good winning strike rate. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 14, 2013 In Race 1 at Auckland today Lafayette was sent out at $2.30 with a record of 1 from 31 track and distance and not surprisingly is now 1 from 32. Admitedly had Agent Van Alden drawn outside her but that's a crazy price in my opinion. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 15, 2013 In Race 1 Cold Turkey paying $2.10 to win. Not so much a poor strike rate but if you saw her last start at Wanganui she wanted off the rail from box 1, drew box 1 again today and was out of the money. Sometimes I think punters just back the trainer. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nadzeya Ostapchuk 40 Report post Posted July 15, 2013 Or perhaps Dusty the bookies don't like to give ANY value to punting kennels and the poor old punter gets suckered into thinking they didn't get up early enough and "someone" must have punted this dog......... Just like sheep to the slaughter........... Baaaaaaa (humbug) Shodsie. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 15, 2013 Possibly. The tote price often balances up with the fixed odds price and they can't get them all right. I'm definetly not complaining, it's a good thing. Your namesake Ostapchuk was a crazy price in the last aswell. Went one good race for the first time in ages, admitedly 2nd to Pretty Good and everyone jumps on. This dog has a knack of finding more trouble than the woman(or man) he was named after. Runs a distant 3rd. Also, you're right when the commentator or presenter says they must have a liability on the dog. Quite often the bookie just opened the dog up very short in the morning. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nadzeya Ostapchuk 40 Report post Posted July 15, 2013 Not "everyone" jumped on Dusty..... He was a bad $1-60 favourite, whereas Bee Rabbit was a fair $1-60 shot given Moon Warrower was in 3. Just wish they could set a market based on exposed form not based on trainers or owners. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ate 20 Report post Posted July 15, 2013 DAD. wasnt that long ago you got $18s. you could also change trainers. glen mite get you value. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 16, 2013 Not "everyone" jumped on Dusty..... He was a bad $1-60 favourite, whereas Bee Rabbit was a fair $1-60 shot given Moon Warrower was in 3. Just wish they could set a market based on exposed form not based on trainers or owners. Well said. 'Everyone' meaning hot favourite. Was a figure of speech. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 17, 2013 Another Pizza in Race 13 today at Wanganui paying $1.80 drawn outside a wide runner and with a record of 1 win from 25 starts. Didn't run in the money. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiknsmack 473 Report post Posted July 17, 2013 You could've dutched the rest of the field (a defacto "lay" bet on Another Pizza) and gotten $1.54 if (when) Another Pizza got beaten. If you find another false odds-on pop tomorrow, post it up before the race so we (okay, I) can get on the others. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 17, 2013 You could've dutched the rest of the field (a defacto "lay" bet on Another Pizza) and gotten $1.54 if (when) Another Pizza got beaten. If you find another false odds-on pop tomorrow, post it up before the race so we (okay, I) can get on the others. Ok. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 17, 2013 My point is if you want to make money especially in doubles and trebles it pays to risk the hotpots often or take a few around them. These are favourites who I thought were well worth the risk. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 17, 2013 In Race 1 today This is Swip is paying $2.50 with track form of 6 starts for zip and zip. Looks a tricky field to me. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
alltheway!!! 640 Report post Posted July 17, 2013 I think lochinvar valero could add a bit of value in that race. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 18, 2013 In Race 1 today This is Swip is paying $2.50 with track form of 6 starts for zip and zip. Looks a tricky field to me. Started at $2.20 with the late scratching. Flew to clear lead, just held 3rd. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiknsmack 473 Report post Posted July 18, 2013 I didn't think he'd lead and get run down, I thought he might not jump. Well done Dusty, found another one. It either proves that there are plenty of false favourites around or, moreso, that it helps when you know more about the event than the people you're betting against. (I didn't mean my last post to sound dickish, btw. Though it kinda did.) dustydreamnz 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 18, 2013 Haha, I've got thick skin chiknsmack, you're a good contributor on here. Funnily enough I thought he would hold on when he led also. I'll make the effort to keep posting before the race! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 18, 2013 There always seems to be a shortie in Race 1 of a meeting, today at Chch Damarjo is $1.90. Thought there were 5 or 6 winning chances and he's never broken 17.5 track and distance when winning. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 19, 2013 There always seems to be a shortie in Race 1 of a meeting, today at Chch Damarjo is $1.90. Thought there were 5 or 6 winning chances and he's never broken 17.5 track and distance when winning. Close 3rd. $12 shot a great result, had a faster p.b than the fave. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 23, 2013 At Wanganui today race 6, Sophie's Terra is a promising sort but you wouldn't be jumping into the $2.20ff. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 24, 2013 At Wanganui today race 6, Sophie's Terra is a promising sort but you wouldn't be jumping into the $2.20ff. Wish you could lay dogs here but always thought it would lead to dodgy actions! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustydreamnz 493 Report post Posted July 26, 2013 Tonight bookies have Stock Taker at $2.30ff, Wanganui race 5. Didn't think it would be fave let alone hot fave. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GONSTA 1,148 Report post Posted July 26, 2013 Tonight bookies have Stock Taker at $2.30ff, Wanganui race 5. Didn't think it would be fave let alone hot fave. Who would you have as favourite dusty? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GONSTA 1,148 Report post Posted July 26, 2013 I reckon it definitely deserves to be fav, bit short at $2.3 but if I was playing bookie I wouldn't risk it. Go back 7 starts was 2nd behind Run Lacey with Ate Power in 3rd... That was a C4 final and now she's running in a very weak C3 field. Should win for mine but would want 2.6 at least. Chocolate fish on it mate! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
johndoe 7 Report post Posted July 26, 2013 Since when did you become a professional punter/bookmaker ReallyM!?! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...