RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
dustydreamnz

How short is too short?

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In Race 1 at Christchurch today My Little Oah was sent out paying $2.00 on the tote with a record of 6 wins from 50 starts in his career and 1 from 27 on the track.  Admitedly nothing in the field had a great winning strike rate but I just couldn't see how he deserved to be anywhere near even money and predictably he got rolled.  Not a complaint at all, I'm happy to back against those.  I'll take those sort of odds but with a dog that has a good winning strike rate. 

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In Race 1 at Auckland today Lafayette was sent out at $2.30 with a record of 1 from 31 track and distance and not surprisingly is now 1 from 32.  Admitedly had Agent Van Alden drawn outside her but that's a crazy price in my opinion. 

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In Race 1 Cold Turkey paying $2.10 to win.  Not so much a poor strike rate but if you saw her last start at Wanganui she wanted off the rail from box 1, drew box 1 again today and was out of the money.  Sometimes I think punters just back the trainer. 

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Or perhaps Dusty the bookies don't like to give ANY value to punting kennels and the poor old punter gets suckered into thinking they didn't get up early enough and "someone" must have punted this dog.........

Just like sheep to the slaughter...........

Baaaaaaa (humbug) Shodsie. :angry: 

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Possibly.  The tote price often balances up with the fixed odds price and they can't get them all right.  I'm definetly not complaining, it's a good thing.  Your namesake Ostapchuk was a crazy price in the last aswell.  Went one good race for the first time in ages, admitedly 2nd to Pretty Good and everyone jumps on.  This dog has a knack of finding more trouble than the woman(or man) he was named after.  Runs a distant 3rd. 

Also, you're right when the commentator or presenter says they must have a liability on the dog.  Quite often the bookie just opened the dog up very short in the morning.  

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Not "everyone" jumped on Dusty..... He was a bad $1-60 favourite, whereas Bee Rabbit was a fair $1-60 shot given Moon Warrower was in 3.

Just wish they could set a market based on exposed form not based on trainers or owners.

Well said.  'Everyone' meaning hot favourite.  Was a figure of speech. 

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You could've dutched the rest of the field (a defacto "lay" bet on Another Pizza) and gotten $1.54 if (when) Another Pizza got beaten.

 

If you find another false odds-on pop tomorrow, post it up before the race so we (okay, I) can get on the others.

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You could've dutched the rest of the field (a defacto "lay" bet on Another Pizza) and gotten $1.54 if (when) Another Pizza got beaten.

 

If you find another false odds-on pop tomorrow, post it up before the race so we (okay, I) can get on the others.

Ok. 

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I didn't think he'd lead and get run down, I thought he might not jump.

 

Well done Dusty, found another one. It either proves that there are plenty of false favourites around or, moreso, that it helps when you know more about the event than the people you're betting against.

 

(I didn't mean my last post to sound dickish, btw. Though it kinda did.)

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There always seems to be a shortie in Race 1 of a meeting, today at Chch Damarjo is $1.90.  Thought there were 5 or 6 winning chances and he's never broken 17.5 track and distance when winning. 

Close 3rd.  $12 shot a great result, had a faster p.b than the fave. 

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I reckon it definitely deserves to be fav, bit short at $2.3 but if I was playing bookie I wouldn't risk it. Go back 7 starts was 2nd behind Run Lacey with Ate Power in 3rd... That was a C4 final and now she's running in a very weak C3 field. Should win for mine but would want 2.6 at least. Chocolate fish on it mate!

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