RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Dopey

RUUD AWAKENING draws 18 of 18

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Thank you Gary1. The only thing you have to worry about in a Slipper is a clear run and little interference. Usually, roughies or inferior horses don't win the Slipper. Ruud's form suggests she is the best in NZ. The question to be answered is, "can she go up a notch to Golden Slipper level?". I hope so. I've just given young Steven Marsh a horse to train and winning a Slipper would give him a huge boost in confidence - as it would any trainer.

trump what do you yhink of the other kiwi  horses chance  criterion

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For all those that think Overreach is a certainty she is trading at $2.80-$3 on betfair currently. I couldn't touch her personally with the rain forecast and drawn barrier 1.

Charlie Boy the value for mine, currently trading at $40. Ridden upside down last start and should appreciate a strong tempo which most slippers seem to be run at.

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The stats say otherwise though don't they?

interesting stats i just read idol barrier one in the last 20 years have won six times  but however from barrier 10 or wider six have also won

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Statistics are absolutely irrelevant in a race like this... How anyone could be keen on a horse just because the barrier is " the most successful in slipper history".... All dependant on the horseflesh in that barrier!

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Statistics are absolutely irrelevant in a race like this... How anyone could be keen on a horse just because the barrier is " the most successful in slipper history".... All dependant on the horseflesh in that barrier!

 

Historically though that balances out to some extent over time, and you can't tell me the best horse has been in 1 every time the winner has come from there. If there are 4-6 equal chances, surely the record book tells you barrier 1 will therefore be an advantage.......unless it rains of course. I don't think most people just like the fave because it's in barrier 1. Wasn't it favourite BEFORE the barrier draw was even done?

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Historically though that balances out to some extent over time, and you can't tell me the best horse has been in 1 every time the winner has come from there. If there are 4-6 equal chances, surely the record book tells you barrier 1 will therefore be an advantage.......unless it rains of course. I don't think most people just like the fave because it's in barrier 1. Wasn't it favourite BEFORE the barrier draw was even done?

Many people on social media came out after the barrier draw and said Overreach is an absolute certainty after drawing the 1. If it had drawn 16 of 16 do you think it would have opened up $2.10 with the TAB? I personally don't see the logic in people using barrier statistics to help with their selections, if that's enough for some people to invest money then that's fantastic! But not for me. Followings trends like this is a certain way to lose money long term IMO.

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Overreach's both starts have both been pretty comfortable first sections of the race, she's yet to prove she can burn at both ends and with the rain about and so many unknowns I cannot justify how punters could back her at $2.10 when she's trading much longer on the fair. Will surely drift out to $2.50-$3 the day.

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Many people on social media came out after the barrier draw and said Overreach is an absolute certainty after drawing the 1. If it had drawn 16 of 16 do you think it would have opened up $2.10 with the TAB? I personally don't see the logic in people using barrier statistics to help with their selections, if that's enough for some people to invest money then that's fantastic! But not for me. Followings trends like this is a certain way to lose money long term IMO.

 

Wasn't Overreach the fave BEFORE the barrier draw though? That's what I asked......

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Overreach went down to the start before the rest of the field last start because she was getting worked up, and I thought at the time I wish I had her in LGL, but she still won easily. Will be an even bigger crowd tomorrow so I wonder how she will react. If no one else takes her in LGL tomorrow, I will.

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Gary1 I think the strong finishers are going to be to the fore. It will be like a 1300m race. I like Criterion, Sidestep, Ruud, Sweet Idea, Whittington, Villa Verde and the David Hayes horse (no 2?). It's very open as usual but I don't like the fav. I will be boxing around the above in the tri and F4.

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Cheers for the weather report. Did you have a 'whip round' for the shoppings?

 

TM zelda is in the same league as eton and pudding as far as weather goes...... remember "if it's wet he won't even get on the plane "....

 

sorry about that mate, couldn't resist.

 

anyway, it looks like raining again 2morro so this ambulance dodger from NZ comes right into it, as a matter of fact i might throw a pineapple or three at it, imagine being able to say you backed a kiwi 2yo that won a golden slipper....

 

come artie come artie caaaaaaaaaaarl hoooper

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TM zelda is in the same league as eton and pudding as far as weather goes...... remember "if it's wet he won't even get on the plane "....

 

sorry about that mate, couldn't resist.

 

anyway, it looks like raining again 2morro so this ambulance dodger from NZ comes right into it, as a matter of fact i might throw a pineapple or three at it, imagine being able to say you backed a kiwi 2yo that won a golden slipper....

 

 

You would sure be in rare company on that side of the Ditch!!! :)

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In fact, I'm picking a pretty big day for the Kiwis tomorrow... :)

 

For sure. With all the talk about Ruud Awakening and It's A Dundeel in the past week or so, Habibi and Veyron have both slipped under the radar somewhat. 

 

Habibi especially looks a terrific chance with the draw and the wet track.

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good luck baz....

 

habibi looks worth a real good bet but the other races are a bit deep..

 

i heard wayne hawkes say that john hawkes and darren beadman both declared overreach would win by 100 yards.....

 

zelda reckons the rails may be a no go zone today so look for the swoopers, then again she thinks black caviar is roger frederer in a horse suit.

 

kick home excited spirit at the valley for the PPOAPC the next door neighbour of the farrier that looks after it once went to queenstown (nz) :P

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