RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Dopey

RUUD AWAKENING draws 18 of 18

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Shades of Our Marscay all over again!! What rotten luck. Overreach should just win from the 1 gate. Can Ruud Awakening beat Our Marscay's placing from the carpark???

Barrier 1 is not the greatest barrier in the slipper IMO. Is going to have to burn hard early to try get a good position. Both her other starts have been soft sit-sprint affairs and at $2.10 that is massive unders in a race where others will definitely not hand it to Waterhouse.

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Barrier 1 is not the greatest barrier in the slipper IMO. Is going to have to burn hard early to try get a good position. Both her other starts have been soft sit-sprint affairs and at $2.10 that is massive unders in a race where others will definitely not hand it to Waterhouse.

Barrier 1 is the most successful in Slipper history,so I think it makes her task a bit easier where Ruud 's is nigh on impossible now.

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Barrier 1 is the most successful in Slipper history,so I think it makes her task a bit easier where Ruud 's is nigh on impossible now.

Obviously a high class filly to be $2.10 in the slipper but I don't think she deserves to be that short. Cannot afford to miss the kick at all and will have to use some petrol early to get handy, wouldn't be the first 2yo filly to dominate leading up to the slipper and flop.. Samaready last year, Militairy Rose in 2010, More Joyous.... All dominated leading up to the slipper and flopped, Gai won't get this handed to her on a plate and at $2.10 that does not represent value for me. Even taking into fact the 2nd favourite drawn 17.

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Perhaps I was a bit blase blase in saying 'should just win.' You're right in that some favourites have crashed and burned in this race -it's definitely not a given. However, that said, I've thought Overreach has been outstanding in the leadups and deserves to be favourite. I thought Ruud Awakening was a genuine chance up until the draw; now, all we can realistically hope for is a placing. Will still be massive if she even pull THAT off from 18.There have also been impressive favourites who killed them like Merlene and Bounding Away...

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Our maizcay ran a slasher when beaten from the visitors alley but most of his wins were on pace,ruud has shown he can be potent when ridden patiently so although not ideal i think we will see something special here!

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i am hopping for good luck too for the kiwis horse , the rails is biased on saturday i heard boris say  even the kiwi mans horse and jockey was shooing away from the rails to get away from the swamp even when leading all the way.

 

imagine if the unthinkables happened :o

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Overeach won't win. There are better credentialed horses in the race. Usually the Pago Pago and Todman lead ups are a good guide. Then there's the trainer and the Jockey. There's a lot of pressure and argy bargy going on. Interference is rife etc. the horse has to have a fast finish and don't forget Belle du Jour's win when she lost the start by 4 lengths and still got up. $2.10 is too short in a Slipper and Gai really talks the price down! When her roughie wins watch her say"I told all of you that any of my horses could win!!". I like Sidestep and Ruud - even from 18 alley, that's why you have a C. Williams in a race like this and not a J Waddell.

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Overeach won't win. There are better credentialed horses in the race. Usually the Pago Pago and Todman lead ups are a good guide. Then there's the trainer and the Jockey. There's a lot of pressure and argy bargy going on. Interference is rife etc. the horse has to have a fast finish and don't forget Belle du Jour's win when she lost the start by 4 lengths and still got up. $2.10 is too short in a Slipper and Gai really talks the price down! When her roughie wins watch her say"I told all of you that any of my horses could win!!". I like Sidestep and Ruud - even from 18 alley, that's why you have a C. Williams in a race like this and not a J Waddell.

Bold statement Trump re; Overreach. Leave her out at your own peril. I agree it may be too short.

I like Ruud Awakening still, but a win from 16 would be an astounding performance. When did it last happen? Don't quite see what Belle du Jour's stunning win has got to do with the running of this year's Slipper? Although it is the best win I've EVER seen in a Slipper - bar none. However, I'll stick with the favourite to win from a brave Ruud Awakening - and if it's the other way round you'll hear me screaming for her from here!! :)

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My point Lloyd in mentioning BDJ's win was that alleys don't mean much in the Slipper. She proved that by being at the rear due to a tardy start but bolted in. Likewise when Marauding won, Ron Quinton knocked half the field over in order to get a clear run! Firstly, the horse has to be a cracker and that's why the honour roll of Slipper winners is littered with champion horses, fillies, sites and broodmares. After that you need a top jock and lots of luck. If Ruud is good enough and is ridden a cracker, the alley won't matter.

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My point Lloyd in mentioning BDJ's win was that alleys don't mean much in the Slipper. She proved that by being at the rear due to a tardy start but bolted in. Likewise when Marauding won, Ron Quinton knocked half the field over in order to get a clear run! Firstly, the horse has to be a cracker and that's why the honour roll of Slipper winners is littered with champion horses, fillies, sites and broodmares. After that you need a top jock and lots of luck. If Ruud is good enough and is ridden a cracker, the alley won't matter.

have to agree trump good horse top jockey and little bit of luck,     belle du jours win was outstanding look at bel sprinter on sat outside barrier misses the start and still wins,   stats may say different, be interested to see how many horses short in the market drew the inside barriers and won

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Thank you Gary1. The only thing you have to worry about in a Slipper is a clear run and little interference. Usually, roughies or inferior horses don't win the Slipper. Ruud's form suggests she is the best in NZ. The question to be answered is, "can she go up a notch to Golden Slipper level?". I hope so. I've just given young Steven Marsh a horse to train and winning a Slipper would give him a huge boost in confidence - as it would any trainer.

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Bold statement Trump re; Overreach. Leave her out at your own peril. I agree it may be too short.

I like Ruud Awakening still, but a win from 16 would be an astounding performance. When did it last happen? Don't quite see what Belle du Jour's stunning win has got to do with the running of this year's Slipper? Although it is the best win I've EVER seen in a Slipper - bar none. However, I'll stick with the favourite to win from a brave Ruud Awakening - and if it's the other way round you'll hear me screaming for her from here!! :)

 

 

When did it last happen?

 

4 years ago in 2009 when Phelan Ready won from gate 16 on a wet track, and it looks like it may be a wet track this year too :) 

 

Go Ruud Awakening. 

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THE HORSE RIDDEN BY MICK DITTMAN DREW WIDE FINISHED 4TH WAS WHO AND AS BRILLANT AS HE WAS WHAT TYPE OF RACES(LISTED ETC) /RACE RECORD DID HE HAVE COMPARED TO RUUD AWAKENING. SOMETHING MARSCAY OR MARSCAY SOMETHING WASN'T IT .PLEASE PUT ME OUT OF MY MISERY

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THE HORSE RIDDEN BY MICK DITTMAN DREW WIDE FINISHED 4TH WAS WHO AND AS BRILLANT AS HE WAS WHAT TYPE OF RACES(LISTED ETC) /RACE RECORD DID HE HAVE COMPARED TO RUUD AWAKENING. SOMETHING MARSCAY OR MARSCAY SOMETHING WASN'T IT .PLEASE PUT ME OUT OF MY MISERY

was it bint marscay

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THE HORSE RIDDEN BY MICK DITTMAN DREW WIDE FINISHED 4TH WAS WHO AND AS BRILLANT AS HE WAS WHAT TYPE OF RACES(LISTED ETC) /RACE RECORD DID HE HAVE COMPARED TO RUUD AWAKENING. SOMETHING MARSCAY OR MARSCAY SOMETHING WASN'T IT .PLEASE PUT ME OUT OF MY MISERY

 

I think that was Our Maizcay, who was talked about above. I read something earlier this week about how Mick was adamant that with a decent barrier he would have won the race.

 

EDIT: Found the article http://www.nzherald.co.nz/racing/news/article.cfm?c_id=53&objectid=10874639

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Yourbreak.

 

Our Maizcay was a brilliant 2yo. 

 

At the beginning of August 2004 he won a trial at Levin over 450m.

 

At his first start at Wanganui a month later he finished second behind Ballroom Babe (Remember that name) on a heavy track 800m.

 

He then won his next seven starts as a 2yo.

 

At Hastings over 800m he won by four lengths.

 

He then won the Wellesley Stakes at Trentham by five lengths over 1000m

 

Next start at Riccarton he won the Welcome Stakes by four lengths over 1000m.

 

He then won his next two starts by 3.5 lengths, the Ford Fairview Stakes at Te Rapa and the Eclipse Stakes at Ellerslie.

 

His next two starts were at Trentham winning the Magic Millions Classic by six lengths and the Wakefield Stakes by eight lengths which was the last time he started here in NZ.

 

He crossed the ditch and had three further starts as a 2yo.

 

He finished second behind Strategic at Canterbury and then ran second, beaten a long head behind Octagonal, before finishing fourth behind Flying Spur and Octagonal in the Slipper.

 

He spelled and then came out and won his next six starts as a 3yo in Australia.

 

He beat Strategic fresh up , then beat Slipper winner Flying Spur by four lengths. Next up he beat Octagonal by nearly two lengths with all those races in Sydney.

 

He then went down to Melbourne and won the Ascot Vale by two lengths beating Gold Ace and Strategic. Next up was a win in the Vic Health and the an easy win in the Caulfield Guineas beating Ravarda by three lengths with Octagonal third.

 

He then ran last in the Cox Plate and had his last start in the following February in the Lightning at Flemington finishing seventh behind Gold Ace and Strategic.

 

He was a damn good horse. in all 19 starts for 13 wins and three seconds $1.3 million in stakes.

 

 

Ballroom Babe who was the only horse to beat him (on a heavy track) in NZ was pretty smart also. She had six starts as a 2yo winning five and finishing fourth in the Matamata Breeders Stakes. She won the Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes by 14 lengths and at her next start won the Ellerslie Sires Produce Stakes by nine lengths.  

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Thanks for all that detail Ted. What a terrific horse he was! I remember his blinding speed and particularly his last win at Trentham where he absolutely donkey licked them in a seeming canter. Dead set would have won the Slipper with a half-decent draw; always thought that.

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The Wellesley win was incredible,i know its a stretch but our maizcay would of beaten ruud if they met in those early season two year old races,seemed to look more brilliant,43.4 800 at hastings a 55.4 1000 and a 1.7.3 1200 were freakish.....ruud on the other hand does seem to have improved with every race and the 1.8.8 ellerslie win confirmed slipper potential,i cant see ruud going forward like our maizcay in the slipper(would never begin as brilliantly for a start) who after expending early petrol was only gunned down late by some very smart horses (flying spur and octagonal,who was last turning in)and would be better served reproducing the run of The Big O,as stated previously you cant afford to lose momentum and this race is notorious for being a roughhouse affair so the brilliance of the ride is the difference

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I believe Our Maizcay was unlucky not to qualify automatically for the slipper , owners having to pay a hefty late entry fee. I think the Owners also received a huge offer for the horse ,which lapsed once the draw came out for Slipper.

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the weather is good for rude awakeining :P  mr tasmanian man, better to be wide :wacko:  at rosehill this week, the rails will be quicksands :ph34r:  i can see in my crystals ball :D  all the kiwi peoples tongue poking at pogo :angry:  and singing come artie come artie and dancing and shaking their betfair tickets.

this week with more precipitations the ambulance is driving on the inside grass and the horses driving on the outside. :o

its not just melbourne where the ladies by new shoes, i got new wellingtoms too.

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