Legendoftheturf 6 Report post Posted February 18, 2013 Now that the lead up races have been run and won, time to try and pick the winner. The lead up form has been mixed. Understanding this I'm going for: Weissmuller Hasn't really been positioned well in the running in his past couple of starts and hasn't been asked to do much in either race. Obviously unsuited to tempo and track at Te Rapa and then the first go at Ellerslie purely looked like a reconnaissance mission. Final 100 in the Avondale guineas was good and running beyond the finishing post looked strong. Thinking the timing about the prep looks spot on and wouldn't be surprised to see him unleashed down the outside in the Derby with clear galloping room re Trentham run. John Kiernan with the experience of peaking a stayer, having had the likes of Pillage and Plunder to win the Adelaide Cup will I feel have Weissmuller cheery ripe for this. Mixed in too the experience of last year with the full brother in Travolta...... looks ominous. The fillies record in the race isn't too flash so i'm happy to risk Habibi at the price....... The seven weeks between runs into the Avondale Guineas and the subsequent effort in the race i feel may flatten her...... some will debate that it may bring her on but i have my doubts. As per usual its only an opinion............ Happy to hear your thoughts and selections on the Derby Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lloyd Vivian 742 Report post Posted February 18, 2013 Weismuller's finishing kick has certainly been conspicuous by its absence over the longer trips. He went OK yesterday without flattering. I think Bob Vance's horse has got to be right in it and Habibi will run a place I'm sure. Valbuena was impressive yesterday and Sticko's horse finished very well also; he's a High Chap so will love the trip. Have I missed one??? At this stage, on a firm track they'd be my final five. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohokaman 5,841 Report post Posted February 18, 2013 I know some of the Weissmuller camp and the run looked ok on Sunday, he was one of the few running on from the back and one could forgive him given that it was his first try Ellerslie way round. As you say Legend, a good trial run. In my view though he prefers the sting out of the ground and I'd like to see some rain before/on the day to give me more confidence. Same camp have Sangster and he was mighty impressive under the big weight. Dropping to 54.5 for the Cup will make him very hard to beat. Rain wouldn't hurt him either. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny 1,224 Report post Posted February 18, 2013 Sangster in one With the weight drop, and the complete ease of yesterdays win, there is nothing around that can beat him -just wins (very easily) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gruff 2,800 Report post Posted February 18, 2013 Weismullers run at te rapa even allowing for the slow tempo early didnt look that of a derby winner ,and chaperone looks a tidy prospect in the cup producing some nice leadups Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gruff 2,800 Report post Posted February 18, 2013 Weismullers run at te rapa even allowing for the slow tempo early didnt look that of a derby winner ,and chaperone looks a tidy prospect in the cup producing some nice leadups Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todamax101 533 Report post Posted February 18, 2013 Habibi for me. Her run the other day was very good, and was beaten more by unfortunate circumstance and great rides by the two (arguably) best riders in the country. With some luck in the running and not too much of a start she should be too good. The forgotten horse in this thread is Soriano. She's been right there in the filly ranks and staying looks to be her fortay. Very even looking derby this year. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Jenkins 2,120 Report post Posted February 18, 2013 Agreed Roger - Habibi has always run like she would get the trip better than most and her pedigree holds no fears in that respect either. Still a clear favourite for me. The best chance at odds for me is Alert who should peak for the race and the trip ought to hold no fears. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tauhei Notts 1,413 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 I will stick my neck out say NOT VALBUENA. The reason is because his win last Saturday was the result of a totally brilliant riding performance, added by a smidgen of luck. It was James McDonald at his brilliant best. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catalano 951 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 Castzleburg was all fired up in his prelim and had to work to gain the lead, he was also taken on for some of the race - in the circumstances it was a huge run. If Bosson sticks with him, and he gets an easy middle section, I don't think they'll run him down next time. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharne 240 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 my pick would be still habibi she got shuffled back but came home well then it would be castlzeberg and choice bro Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rumpole 483 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 Sangster in one With the weight drop, and the complete ease of yesterdays win, there is nothing around that can beat him -just wins (very easily) can OP do 54.5 or should the Magic Man be on standby??? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dean Winchester 1 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 Zinko for me ... Bred to run the trip right out , and has a touch of class.. Gruff 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legendoftheturf 6 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 I hear a few favored horses in the market are under offer from Hong Kong and maybe sold prior to the race and may not start .... interesting circumstances........... musical chairs with the hoops too Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rennie1 0 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 Soriano for me and high fashion in the Oaks Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lloyd Vivian 742 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 I do concur in regard to Soriano - she is one I forgot. Has to be a show. What will the weather do in the interim? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue 1,099 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 my pick would be still habibi she got shuffled back but came home well then it would be castlzeberg and choice bro I'm not sure why but I have some reservations about her if the track is rock hard. Maybe I'm studying too much. The Vance horse is coming right at the right time though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gruff 2,800 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 Zinko for me ... Bred to run the trip right out , and has a touch of class.. . Your seeing something im not dean,i wish you the best of luck,you are going to need a miracle Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dean Winchester 1 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 ridden upside down last two starts ...dont be suprised if in the Derby hes ridden back again like he used to be ... full brother won up to 2900m so hell stay , and hes group placed...21-1 will do me ... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
bestbets 206 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 Castzleburg leads and wins, no bad luck stories of going 3 and 4 wide and traffic problems. Habibi would be my first choice if Vinny wasn't riding her, he seems to find more trouble in races than a bank robber running from the police and panics when things go wrong, so it won't be in my top 3. Gruff 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gruff 2,800 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 Fair call dean,the only disturbing fact is alot of these races are devoid of pace,zinko will only be suited if they make it a true staying test as he has been left flatfooted particularly in the guineas where the leaders went 47.2 from the 800 and looked around 23 home,making habibis run very meritorious,an australian rider for the derby makes the 3.20 look pretty good.i wont right zinko off just yet:) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
All Rounder 3 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 An Australian rider? For habibi? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brown Fox 867 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 In any major races,particularly for 3yo,I will always have Vinnie in there.He has been a great contributor to my Tab Acc. He sometimes doesn't look too interested in minor races but when the big money is up he's real focused. horse1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gruff 2,800 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 Good rider no question.but you dont want to be a certainy beaten in any race,let alone a big race and hes ridden a few this year.Waddel got dropped off ruud after blaming 'circumstances' at pukekohe, craig williams didnt have to explain himself after the million Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitzy 143 Report post Posted February 19, 2013 I suspect Zinko may have jarred up at Ellerslie, probably (like most of them) wants the sting out of it. Also suspect he could be better if ridden a bit cold, but if you want to win a Derby you need to be handy as they swing for home in my view. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
