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Dopey

Averages and Medians...Magic Millions flow on to Karaka

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I have some interest in Karaka this year and have been thinking about how this years sale will go c.f. last year, and the Magic Millions results....I would be intereted in some opinion.

some statistics:

Average and median for 2009 premier - filly's only

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I reckon there will be a few offsetting influences at work that may leave overall averages down say 5%. In no particular order:

1) The world is a better place than it was in January last year, when we may have been on the verge of a great depression.

2) The strong A$ makes our yearlings cheaper for all those coal mine owning Australian buyers.

3) These are the yearlings from the EI year, so the Australians may be even more disposed to buying NZ-reared horses than normal.

4) The nasty declines in NZ stakemoney this year will make it really tough in K2 and K3 unless you have an athletic colt.

5) 20-30 or so of the top yearlings that may normally have been in K1 look as those they're in the Inglis sale.

6) No hot sires. Pins and O'Reilly are only having average years in Aust. Zabeel is getting older and he is starting to slide down the Aust list - will his average be down 20%? No High Chaparrals. The first season sires don't look "hot" - I can see one or two buyers chasing the Darci Brahmas but that's about it.

7) I'd guess that finance availability will be a lot tougher.

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I think that's a very accurate assessment, increase although surely the Darcis will be keenly sought after by those crystal-ball-gazing buyers ?

There's more than a few Redoute's Choice yearlings in there which will help the sale quite a bit. I understand Lot 431 is the oil...

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This is an observation and not in any way a criticism but I do invite comment on it.

In 2004, 115 of the 515 yearlings catalogued in Karaka Premier were conceived offshore. This represented 22.3% of the catalogue.

In 2010 149 of the 483 yearlings catalogued were conceived offshore. This computes to 30.8%, a quite sharp rise in just 6 years.

Some factors to think about are:

Does this lift the overall buyer appeal of the sale and help to contribute to it's success ?

Once Zabeel departs the scene will we see a 50% plus figure for this stat ?

For every offshore-conceived yearling that is catalogued for Premier another must drop out the bottom into Select and so on down the food chain. What are your views on this ?

Many of these offshore conceived yearlings are bred by NZ breeders and not pinhooks or Aussie owners choosing to sell at Karaka. What are the implications for young local stallions ?

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I'm not sure if an 8% rise is too worrying just yet. I think the lack of variety in the top of our stallion ranks is more concerning. Apart from Pins and O'reilly who are flooding the market, you've got Zabeel who is serving fewer each year. Next down the service fee list you have Pentire who has never really been accepted as he should have by breeders, Savabeel is yet to show much, Volksraad can't get them to run in Australia, High Chaparral will probably be leaving this season, and Darci is still unproven. Along with Stravinsky I'm not surprised breeders are looking to Australia for some variety.

In terms of success I think the Australian buyers will like it and they are a big market. But I also think a few breeders who went to Aussie and the likes of Redoutes at $300k and others at premium prices in the boom of 2007 will be burned and stay at home for a season or three.

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I don't think having a large swag of Australian yearlings in K1 and K2 is a major concern - so long as the same standards of pedigree and type are applied to them as to NZ-bred yearlings (and I'm not suggesting this isn't the case). Surely the key aim for NZ breeders is to attract the best possible buying bench to our sale. In an ideal world that will happen due to NZ standing 10 or 12 stallions at the top end that any serious player has to consider. That isn't quite the case at the moment but there will always be several NZ-based stallions who will leave high percentages of top horses and we'll always have the advantage of our pasture and climate. To me the biggest concern would be if the cream of our yearlings went to Inglis each year - and that appears to be a real factor this year. If you're a deep pocketed buyer and you can see the very top end in Sydney, then why bother coming to NZ? Little Avondale have 4, Rich Hill 6, Haunui 7, Trelawney 7 and Waikato Stud have a staggering 19 entered at Inglis - as an example of short term profit maximisation versus long term business sense, this is spectacularly short-sighted imo. If they continue doing that, how many Australians will come to NZ in the future to buy the 150-200 Pins and O'Reilly yearlings from their breeding machine?

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I don't think it will ever become too much of an issue as the studs would just be shooting themselves in the foot.... maybe with so many O'Reilly's and Pins Waikato Stud wanted to send a few over there. Likewise if a breeder paid $330,000 for a service to Redoute's the stud thought they would get more of their money back @ Inglis. Good on Cambridge Stud though who have been selling exclusively in NZ for a few years now.

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