RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
gr8k9z

Lucky Number 5

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If your lucky number was 5 you would be $950.80 Richer with the quaddie today at Southland being all number 5.

When was the last time all the leg winners of a quaddie been the same.

And has a pick 6 had the same numbers in all 6 legs?

Just intriuged.. :)

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If your lucky number was 5 you would be $950.80 Richer with the quaddie today at Southland being all number 5.

When was the last time all the leg winners of a quaddie been the same.

And has a pick 6 had the same numbers in all 6 legs?

Just intriuged.. :)

G'day mate. Not sure of the meeting but i remember the first 5 legs of the pick6 being won by number 1.

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as any other number combination.

You're assuming that each trap has the same likelihood of winning, which isn't the case.

Box 1 winning all of the quaddie races is more likely to happen than Box 5 winning them all.

Saying that, I guess it was box 5's turn today :)

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You're assuming that each trap has the same likelihood of winning, which isn't the case.

Box 1 winning all of the quaddie races is more likely to happen than Box 5 winning them all.

Saying that, I guess it was box 5's turn today :)

Im presuming that is only taken by the statistics of winners form each trap. Yes, box 1 has been more successful, but say the hot favourites are in box 6 in each leg,

The tab will be saying the likely hood of box 6 winning each leg is greater than if roughies were in boxes 1 or 8...

But as the saying goes, You got to be in it to win it,

Every dog has the same chance of winning, maybe some dogs have more ability to beat the odds.

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Im presuming that is only taken by the statistics of winners form each trap. Yes, box 1 has been more successful, but say the hot favourites are in box 6 in each leg,

The tab will be saying the likely hood of box 6 winning each leg is greater than if roughies were in boxes 1 or 8...

But as the saying goes, You got to be in it to win it,

Every dog has the same chance of winning, maybe some dogs have more ability to beat the odds.

If every dog had the same chance of winning why even have odds? Sure, weight of money comes into it too. A big punter may cause a false favourite in many peoples opinion but if Little Mother was paying the same as a maiden I know who I'd be backing!

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Chance?

So it doesnt come down to ability at all?....

Another Gale, Hifi Allegro, the great Little Mother. Race after race they would salute and yet our sport is based on chance?

You should be a comedian...

I have a couple of dogs that if put in the same race as the above, and the above had fallen over, we still we get beaten by the above. They simply have no chance.

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You're assuming that each trap has the same likelihood of winning, which isn't the case.

Box 1 winning all of the quaddie races is more likely to happen than Box 5 winning them all.

Saying that, I guess it was box 5's turn today :)

though box draws have quite even stats, the ability of the dog is far more important.

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though box draws have quite even stats, the ability of the dog is far more important.

Agreed 100% with regards to the dog's ability, although box stats do prove important in the long run.

Random probability would suggest that it's 12.5% chance for the winner to come from any one box. An infinite amount of dog races would place the dogs of ability in each trap to an equal proportion, so we can discount the dogs ability when it comes to basic calculations.

Based on some quick averaging of NZ's box stats, starting from Box 1 improves the dog's chances by about 40%, while the chances of a dog from Box 5 winning diminish about 10%. The effect is even more noticeable over sprint distances, and less noticeable over distance.

Of course this is a very general point of view, so it ignores if a dog prefers being out wide or close in, and all sorts of variables which are for another day...

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