RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Barmer

Destruction

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Yet another stakes winner for Fastnet Rock and obviously a classy individual with great potential, but when analysing the pedigree for him all I can find is a double to Twig Moss. Is this a case of breeding the best to the best and hoping for the best as Storm Signal was a pretty useful mare, or clever matching that I can't see. What do the pedigree analysts out there make of it?

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I hope someone comes on and gives an opinion for you. I am sure when doing some research a couple of years ago it showed the Kenmare/Nassipour line worked well together I am sure someone with far more experience than I may be able to elaborate.

Other than your Twig Moss it shows a double to Matrice an aussie stallion who won 27 of his 45 starts so he was no slouch :)

For me it may be a case of the best to the best :)

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Horses do not know what their breeding is. There have been many top horses with nothing whatsoever in their pedigree to suggest they may be good. Others with pedigrees to die for can't even run fast enough to keep warm.

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Yet another stakes winner for Fastnet Rock and obviously a classy individual with great potential, but when analysing the pedigree for him all I can find is a double to Twig Moss. Is this a case of breeding the best to the best and hoping for the best as Storm Signal was a pretty useful mare, or clever matching that I can't see. What do the pedigree analysts out there make of it?

Two words spring to mind: 'hybrid vigour!'

Another two were not far behind - GREAT SIRE!!!!!!!

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Having studied every book on pedigree analysis and weighing up all the pro's and con's I'm still leaning towards the fruit machine syndrome. You pull the lever and hope that three cherries turn up. Of course it's essential to have the machine loaded with superior fruit in the first place if you want to produce a champion- a well bred, preferably winning mare from a winner producing family and a stallion who carries dominant genes for speed. There is too much emphasis amongst pedigree analysts on making up a pedigree that looks fantastic on paper with ordinary stock and hoping to produce something special. You can make a case for every winner by looking at the pedigree but for every winner there are twenty losers with similar genetics.

For me the jury is still out.

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I thought Barmer would be unindated with people explaining the ins and outs of Destructions pedigree - are there no theories out there???????? anyone????

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I thought Barmer would be unindated with people explaining the ins and outs of Destructions pedigree - are there no theories out there???????? anyone????

Perhaps they're all away on holiday Kay - basking in the sun on a Greek Island perhaps???!!!

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Don't normally post here anymore but will make an exception...the key IMHO to Fastnet Rock is his damsire Royal Academy. Note his 8c female line with 3rd dam by Menow 8g...Nijinsky II is 8f...Royal Academy is 4x4 Menow. The major group winners for Fastnet Rock duplicate Sir Tristram or bring lines of Sir Ivor (read Athenia, 3/4 sister to Menow). Certain lines bring further input of Menow, one being Blushing Groom, his sire Red God out of a Menow mare. Just doing a study of his performers as well as those that were minor winners...will take a while to compare but I think that the input of Nassipour by Blushing Groom helped...oh yes, Destruction's female line is also 8f!!!

Have a look at Atlantic Jewel...5x3 Sir Tristram; granddam by Nashwan (Blushing Groom); an extra line of Sir Ivor via Alzao...and female line is 8f.

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I am away from my computers at present so couldn't have a look myself but thought there had to be something more than Twig Moss - all very interesting. By the way, my old computer gave up the ghost in the earthquake and I do not have your research site any more - would love to have again as it was really interesting. You have a whole new dimension to pedigree research which I enjoyed.

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Daughters of Keltrice have bred 10 stakes winners from over 500 foals of racing age. Nijinsky II features strongly in the make up of the sires of some of these stakes winners.

Redoutes Choice has been bred to 3 daughters of Keltrice and produced 4 foals all of whom have raced and won, three have gone on to be stakes performers ie Miss Mooney Moone (SW), Albalcin and Megadeal stakes placed. Interestingly Superior Sateen a two race winning own brother to Redoutes Choice only ever produced 5 foals of which four won, one of which The Annihilator was stakes placed. The Annihilator was out of a mare by Keltrice. Redoutes Choice is by Danehill, his grand dam is Dancing Show a daughter of Nijinsky.

Other stakes winners bred with the Keltrice / Nijinsky II element include Midnight Mustang and Lyell. Midnight Mustang is by Val Royal a grand son of Nijinsky II. Lyell is by the Miswaki stallion Tough Speed who is out of a Nijinsky II mare. Tough Speed only sired one other stakes winner in his stud career.

Besides Redoutes Choice other Danehill sons Lion Hunter and Choisir have bred stakes winners Immortality and Uxorious to Keltrice mares.

Fastnet Rock like Redoutes Choice is by Danehill and like him has a grand parent by Nijinsky II, is it surprising then that when Fastnet Rock was mated with Storm Signal a stakes winning daughter of Keltrice that a stakes winner in Destruction should result ?

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Daughters of Keltrice have bred 10 stakes winners from over 500 foals of racing age. Nijinsky II features strongly in the make up of the sires of some of these stakes winners.

Redoutes Choice has been bred to 3 daughters of Keltrice and produced 4 foals all of whom have raced and won, three have gone on to be stakes performers ie Miss Mooney Moone (SW), Albalcin and Megadeal stakes placed. Interestingly Superior Sateen a two race winning own brother to Redoutes Choice only ever produced 5 foals of which four won, one of which The Annihilator was stakes placed. The Annihilator was out of a mare by Keltrice. Redoutes Choice is by Danehill, his grand dam is Dancing Show a daughter of Nijinsky.

Other stakes winners bred with the Keltrice / Nijinsky II element include Midnight Mustang and Lyell. Midnight Mustang is by Val Royal a grand son of Nijinsky II. Lyell is by the Miswaki stallion Tough Speed who is out of a Nijinsky II mare. Tough Speed only sired one other stakes winner in his stud career.

Besides Redoutes Choice other Danehill sons Lion Hunter and Choisir have bred stakes winners Immortality and Uxorious to Keltrice mares.

Fastnet Rock like Redoutes Choice is by Danehill and like him has a grand parent by Nijinsky II, is it surprising then that when Fastnet Rock was mated with Storm Signal a stakes winning daughter of Keltrice that a stakes winner in Destruction should result ?

I much enjoy reading posts like this,and yours Rich,wish you'd stick around! As far as Fastnet Rock goes,he's had a huge year with the likes of Mosheen,Atlantic Jewell,Sea Siren, Foxwedge,Smart Missile,Empress Roxk, to name a few..could it just be that he is such a dominant stallion that he is going to leave champions pretty much to any 'family'? as his Dad Danehill did?

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thanks Kopia...here is a list of Fastnet Rock's stakeswinners and stakes placegetters that involve duplication of Buckpasser, Sir Tristram, Nijinsky II and Crimson Saint involving the #8 family. A number of other #8 ancestors are in supporting role such as Bold Ruler, Damascus, Red God, Sir Ivor etc and I am currently listing them all to see what the lesser lights also carry. Note the number of G1 winners involving a duplication of Sir Tristram.

Amah Rock LW, G3p 5x5 Buckpasser

Atlantic Jewel G1w 5x3 Sir Tristram

Born To Rock Lw, G1p 4x5 Nijinsky II

Curved Ball G2w 5x3 Sir Tristram

Empress Rock G2w 5x5 Sir Tristram

Foxwedge G2w, G1p 4x5 Crimson Saint

Irish Lights G1w 4x5 Crimson Saint

Jade Marauder G3w 4x4 Nijinsky II

Lovemelikearock G3w, G2p 5x4 Crimson Saint

Mosheen G1w 5x4 Sir Tristram

Planet Rock G1w 5x3 Sir Tristram

Rock 'N' Pop G1w 5x2 Sir Tristram

Rock Classic G1w 5x4 Sir Tristram

Rock Robster LW 5x4 Buckpasser

Rothesay G2w 5x4 Buckpasser

Sea Siren G2w 4x5 Nijinsky II

Stryker G3w, G1p 5x4 Buckpasser

Stakes placed only:

Cindarockinrella Lp 4x5 Nijinsky II

Ebony Rock Lp 5x4 Buckpasser

Epona Princess Lp 4x5 Crimson Saint

Highly Recommended G3p 5x5 Buckpasser

Lagerphone Lp 4x5 Nijinsky II

Liancourt Rock G2p 4x4 Nijinsky II (dam 4x4 Sir Ivor)

Miss O'brien Lp 5x4 Sir Tristram, 5x5 Buckpasser

Money Rocks G2p 5x5 Buckpasser

Teardrop Rock Lp 5x3 Sir Tristram

Undeniably G2p 5x5 Buckpasser

zikmann Lp 4x5 Crimson Saint

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Is Fastnet Rocks' maternal side important here Rich? i.e. there are plenty of other top class stallions by Danehill-we have some here incl. Keeper who is a stand-out-maybe I've missed the answer somewhere? And am I correct in also stating that Danehill/Nuyerev is becoming an established 'cross'?

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Having studied every book on pedigree analysis and weighing up all the pro's and con's I'm still leaning towards the fruit machine syndrome. You pull the lever and hope that three cherries turn up. Of course it's essential to have the machine loaded with superior fruit in the first place if you want to produce a champion- a well bred, preferably winning mare from a winner producing family and a stallion who carries dominant genes for speed. There is too much emphasis amongst pedigree analysts on making up a pedigree that looks fantastic on paper with ordinary stock and hoping to produce something special. You can make a case for every winner by looking at the pedigree but for every winner there are twenty losers with similar genetics.

For me the jury is still out.

Having had a similar life-long interest in pedigrees Barmer, I have to admit I'm with you on this one. If you could work it out on paper the game would be easy!!! Your key line is "for every winner there are 20 losers with similar genetics." The answer, I believe is what you say in your opening lines: Stack the deck with a well-bred, winning mare from a WINNER PRODUCING family and use a dominant stallion who injects speed - and match them physically. Just my observations after a year or two of trying and watching.

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Have you read 'Thoroughbred Breeding - Pedigree theories and the science of genetics' by Matthew Binns and Tony Morris? Matthew Binns is the leader of the Equine Genome Project which was set up to map the equine genome.

Puts the whole business into perpective using the most up to date knowlege of genetics.

It debunks some of the more outlandish theories but most of all underlines the completely random nature of the transfer of genes from generation to generation, making pedigrees that are simply pretty on paper rather meaningless. Until the gene can be identified that produces performance and the 'will to win' it will remain a mystery, and long may it continue and we can all continue to dream of breeding a champion.

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