RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
mightymo

unsustainable

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I have done a quick analysis of yesterdays sale.

As a general rule, i have always worked on needing to get about $15,500 at sales ie $14000 in the hand in order to break even on most yearlings.

In yesterdays sale, there were 211 lots catalogued. Of those, 28 were sold for greater than $15,000.

In other words, 87% of yearlings were either taken home by their vendors or sold at a loss.

Now that cannot and will not continue...

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I was astounded at Matt Markhams analysis of the second day sale in this mornings Christchurch Press. He stated that the second day sale was a great success and good prices were achieved throughout the day. To support this argument he quoted purchasers Cran Dalgety and Nigel McGrath The average price for the day was around $10,000. With prices at this level sellers cannot make a profit. At this rate PGG Wrightson will be lucky to get enough entries next year to run one day yet alone two. Markham may well have been better advised to talk with a few vendors before writing his ill judged and unbalanced article

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I was astounded at Matt Markhams analysis of the second day sale in this mornings Christchurch Press. He stated that the second day sale was a great success and good prices were achieved throughout the day. To support this argument he quoted purchasers Cran Dalgety and Nigel McGrath The average price for the day was around $10,000. With prices at this level sellers cannot make a profit. At this rate PGG Wrightson will be lucky to get enough entries next year to run one day yet alone two. Markham may well have been better advised to talk with a few vendors before writing his ill judged and unbalanced article

It was a silly article - look at the numbers compared to the first day

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As a first lime/last time vendor I went home with a headache. As did many, many vendors. In fact, apart from probably half a dozen I would say most people are hurting today. The middle market has disappeared and shows just how dire the industry has become. It will only serve to further reduce foal numbers next breeding season which, again, will create a vicious circle that will plague the industry.

I have not had the chance to read any print articles, but I know Matt was on hand yesterday talking to a lot of people so what ever he wrote would have been a true account of those he talked too.

I did catch the story in Harnesslink write-up and was surprised to see Bruce Barlass' comments on the day.

The old saying 'you can polish a turd, but it's still a turd' comes to mind.

That's not a reflection on PGG at all, the sale was professionally run and managed, as always. But if those close to the action think they can convince the industry yesterday's sale was anything other than a unabated failure, they need to think again.

I re-iterate my sentiments from the last few months that, for those brave enough to continue breeding, which won't be many, ALL stallion prices need to be at least halved.

I'd imagine those wanting to join lease syndicates to race fillies will have about 50 options in the coming weeks.

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I was astounded at Matt Markhams analysis of the second day sale in this mornings Christchurch Press. He stated that the second day sale was a great success and good prices were achieved throughout the day. To support this argument he quoted purchasers Cran Dalgety and Nigel McGrath The average price for the day was around $10,000. With prices at this level sellers cannot make a profit. At this rate PGG Wrightson will be lucky to get enough entries next year to run one day yet alone two. Markham may well have been better advised to talk with a few vendors before writing his ill judged and unbalanced article

Interested to read your comments Don. But I will stand by my decision to say that the sale as a whole was a success.

What needs to be remembered is that Tuesday wasn't just your average second day of the sale. It also included some of those who would have made it as day three horses had the sale not been shortened.

And lets be honest. There was some utter rubbish that made it's way into the ring. Yet of the 193 horses which went into the ring, 150 of them went home with new owners. Meaning on 150 occasions people were 'satisfied' enough with the price given for their offering.

Now, considering the current climate in the harness racing industry with declining stakes etc... this was definitely a step forward for the game.

People are still wanting to spend money. But they are being more careful about it. In the past they have gone to all lengths to get the horse they want. But this year it was more reserved, they were more realistic about the price they wanted to pay. But in some cases the vendors weren't as realistic when it came to the price they wanted.

Don, you state that with an average price of $10,000 sellers can not make a profit. Well maybe it is time the sellers woke up and got real.

Because, if you are going to send a son or daughter of Extreme Three to the sales out of a mare who only has three winners on the page - You are going to be disappointed.

Well bred, and nice types of horses will sell well at the sales every time. And it was on that which I based my line of success. Over the two days at Christchurch (and I expect the same tomorrow) the good horses sold for good prices. The crap horses sold for crap prices. In a perfect world every body would go home thousands of dollars richer, but that will never happen.

The biggest problem is that everybody thinks their horse is a champion. And unfortunately only a small percentage of them will even go close.

Those who I spoke to on Tuesday, and yes I spoke to both sellers and those who prepared yearlings too, were happy with what had unfolded. They were genuinely surprised at how the sale had played out. And apart from the odd deflated owner who had expected a far to exuberant price for their yearling, every one seemed pretty happy. Many considered it to be a step forward in the right direction for the sales, and for harness racing.

Should PGG Wrightson be LUCKY enough not get enough yearlings for a second day next year it may just be the best thing to happen provided those they do get are the same well bred horses who were offered up on day one.

A condensed version of the sale - say maybe over a day and a half in Christchurch, and then another day in Auckland - would see the rubbish weeded out and only quality well bred stock will be available. Then again I did hear they idea being passed around that the whole thing should be in Auckland...still prepared down here, but a deal cut with the transport agencies to have the lot held up there. Not quite sure about that though.

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It was a silly article - look at the numbers compared to the first day

Of course things were going to be different from the first day. Day One is the Premier Day. The best bred, and the best credentialed. Day Two is the left over dribs and drabs, (many of which turn out to be better than what was offered on day one) I was merely pointing to the fact that considering what was offered up on Day Two I think people should be more satisfied.

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Sure, Get realistic and stop sending mares to average stallions and then expect to make a profit off them at Yearling Sales.

Off course there is the odd exception. But buyers want quality.

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....I think you missed Trilogy , a Southerner in Auckland cup last year.

At least we are reading you....I was bemused when you called William of Orange 'consistent' and PScaife a 'strike-rate' trainer !!!

How did your cancer shave go ??

Can we still donate ???

After all these digs at you I think we should send some $'s to your cause !!!

Don't give up !!!

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Sure, Get realistic and stop sending mares to average stallions and then expect to make a profit off them at Yearling Sales.

Off course there is the odd exception. But buyers want quality.

Noticed that extreme three was mentioned as one of the average stallions, is there more to the story I'm not sure, extreme three is full brother to Mach three, gives breeders that option not to outlay hugely just like Julius caesar does being full brother to CC , look at courage under fire originally that family was from a mare purchased for $500 at all aged broodmare sale that was "average" extreme three had his first two year old run last week and ran a creditable 3rd down south , not bad for a average stallion to have a runner while the some of the expensive stallions have theirs in a paddock, the seller of the extreme three that went for $17,000 must be happy for that return from a average stallion and mare. Same old story if you ain't in with the big boys you just get stomped on.will be interesting what will happen if the average stallion extreme three leaves winners how he will be regarded next year

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Your comments are noted Dizzy and you make some good points. The fact is though that an average of $10,000 breeders are losing money. If they are prepared to meet the market and sell at a loss, this does not make the sale a success. It merely means that it is a good sale for buyers. Many Christian Cullens sold for less than the service fee. Do you rate Christian Cullen as an average stallion? If the breeding industry is to continue then changes are going to have to be made to make it more attractive for people to breed horses. The first change should be a reduction in the level of service fees and stud farm and veterinary charges for inseminating mares

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So by "average stallions" Im assuming you are referring to McArdle, Grinfromeartoear, Jeremes Jet, Live or Die, Lis Mara, Elsu, Badlands Hanover...

Did i miss any?

Ok, so calling sires average before they have been really given a chance to prove themselves might not have been the best call. But two of the sires you mentioned to me have never really floated my boat as good potential sires. Lis Mara and Badlands Hanover. But that is just my opinion. I hope for the sake of the people who have bred to to them that they through them a champion.

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....I think you missed Trilogy , a Southerner in Auckland cup last year.

At least we are reading you....I was bemused when you called William of Orange 'consistent' and PScaife a 'strike-rate' trainer !!!

How did your cancer shave go ??

Can we still donate ???

After all these digs at you I think we should send some $'s to your cause !!!

Don't give up !!!

I knew I could remember a southerner going around last year, but my eyes must have just completely scanned over Trilogy. Bugger. Oh well, I will correct that. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

Williams Of Orange - 34 starts. 8 wins, 6 seconds, 3 thirds and six fourths. That to me would rate as a consistent performer.

Peter Scaife - despite all the conjecture which floats around him has compiled an impressive strike rate with his horses. Sure weight in numbers in the Central Northern region helps but he does have a decent strike rate as a trainer.

Cancer shave went well thank you. Managed to raise some good money for a brilliant cause and was very thankful to have been made a part of it all. Although, the ears have been a little cold this week.

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Noticed that extreme three was mentioned as one of the average stallions, is there more to the story I'm not sure, extreme three is full brother to Mach three, gives breeders that option not to outlay hugely just like Julius caesar does being full brother to CC , look at courage under fire originally that family was from a mare purchased for $500 at all aged broodmare sale that was "average" extreme three had his first two year old run last week and ran a creditable 3rd down south , not bad for a average stallion to have a runner while the some of the expensive stallions have theirs in a paddock, the seller of the extreme three that went for $17,000 must be happy for that return from a average stallion and mare. Same old story if you ain't in with the big boys you just get stomped on.will be interesting what will happen if the average stallion extreme three leaves winners how he will be regarded next year

Totally agree with you Flakjacket. Extreme Three and horses like Julius Caesar are the perfect option for people who cannot afford to outlay the big bucks for the brothers. But then in turn, if people are prepared to do that, then they should not expect the same results at the sales as if they had a Christian Cullen or a Mach Three, the proven stallions, should they? Like I have said there will be exceptions. And surely every sire is going to through a couple of decent ones. But, if sellers want to be taken seriously then they need to get realistic about their offerings.

Scenario - I will be interested to see what most people would do in this situation. I have asked a good 20 people already. But would be keen to get the thoughts of the Racecafe public.

You head to the sales with say $10k in your pocket. Up for grabs is a Mach Three out of a three win Soky's Atom mare for $10k. Also available are two Extreme Three lots both out of three win race mares who are also by Soky's Atom for $5k each.

On breeding alone, what option are you going to pick and why?

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Your comments are noted Dizzy and you make some good points. The fact is though that an average of $10,000 breeders are losing money. If they are prepared to meet the market and sell at a loss, this does not make the sale a success. It merely means that it is a good sale for buyers. Many Christian Cullens sold for less than the service fee. Do you rate Christian Cullen as an average stallion? If the breeding industry is to continue then changes are going to have to be made to make it more attractive for people to breed horses. The first change should be a reduction in the level of service fees and stud farm and veterinary charges for inseminating mares

Christian Cullen is a bad example for a sale. Breeders are now in the mindset that if they send their mare to him, no matter how well bred, poorly bred, well performed, poorly performed, they are that they are going to get a return. Christian Cullen lots out of good race mares will always sell well. His record stood up well over the two days at Christchurch I thought. Of the the 34 lots entered sired by him 25 sold at an average of $26,600. Three were withdrawn and six were buy backs.

But I do agree, the Studs are getting away with murder for what they charge for their stallions, and if they aren't careful they will lose out in the long run.

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I think your example of a Mach Three out of a Sokys Atom mare For $10,000 would be a perfect example of what an unrealistic market we have for breeders. On this scenario the breeder would probably be at least $10,000 out of pocket

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