RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
Zither

Shortage of Thoroughbreds Is Evident At Tampa Bay Downs And Will

Recommended Posts

Feb. 22 (Washington Post) -- MIAMI — At a time when much of

the horse racing industry has been in decline, _blankTampa Bay

Downs has been the sport's shining success story. The Oldsmar,

Fla., track attracted the attention of bettors from coast to

coast by offering large, competitive fields with the potential

for big payoffs, and its 2010-11 winter season produced record

results. Long regarded as a minor league operation, Tampa

averaged a stunning $4.57 million per day in wagers.

I have been a Tampa loyalist for years, and I was one of

many horseplayers who eagerly anticipated the winter season that

began in December. And I am one of many who have been

disappointed and disillusioned by the decline of the track's

product. The fields aren't as big. The races aren't as

competitive. The betting isn't as interesting. Customers have

responded accordingly. General Manager Peter Berube said that

wagering has dropped by about $500,000 a day — an abrupt reversal

after years of growth.

The decline is by no means a mysterious phenomenon. Two

crucial issues are involved. One is a factor that every

handicapper confronts virtually every day. Another is a more

corrosive problem that is going to affect most of the U.S. racing

industry.

Anyone who bets Tampa is keenly aware of Jamie Ness, who has

dominated Tampa as few trainers have ever dominated a lengthy

race meet, winning with 45 of the 98 horses he has saddled — an

astonishing 46 percent. Ness trains a big, far-flung,

professionally run stable, a distinct contrast with many of the

shoestring operations against which he competes. Even the weakest

of Ness's runners go off at low odds, and handicappers ought to

relish the prospect of playing against horses who are overbet,

but we have all learned this lesson: Don't. Ness wins regularly

when logic suggests he shouldn't — with horses like Escort.

Trainer Tom Proctor, a nationally respected horseman, gave

up on the once-classy Escort and dropped him into a $10,000

claiming race, which he lost by seven lengths. His career as an

effective racehorse appeared to be finished, but Ness

nevertheless claimed him and entered him three weeks later.

Escort was made the odds-on favorite solely because of his new

trainer's mystique, but betting against the mystique wouldn't

have been a smart idea. Escort promptly won by 15 lengths.

If Ness can improve so dramatically upon a trainer of

Proctor's stature, he can do anything. Accordingly, gamblers

don't want to bet against him and may prefer to avoid races where

he is a presence. Rival trainers don't want to run against him.

Ness's last three winners paid $2.60, $5.40 and $3.20 — all in

fields of six. So much for the big fields and big payoffs that

have made Tampa popular.

Yet if the Ness factor is frustrating, it will not

necessarily be everlasting. Nobody wins at a 46 percent clip

forever. But Tampa is also a victim of a problem that faces every

track and can only get worse: the shortage of thoroughbred

racehorses in the United States.

When the financial crisis struck the United States in 2008,

the racing industry was hard-hit immediately. Gamblers bet less

money; tracks' business dropped sharply. Owners bought fewer

horses; breeders suffered, bred fewer mares and in some cases

went out of business.

Before the crisis, the production of U.S. thoroughbreds had

been fairly constant, averaging 34,800 foals per year. The number

dropped in 2008 and 2009 to about 32,000, a decline now affecting

the sport because those thousands of unborn horses would be 3-

and 4-year racehorses this year. The real crisis, however, is yet

to come: In 2011 the size of the U.S. foal crop plummeted to an

estimated 24,900.

However, in Ocala, Fla., the heart of the state's breeding

industry, the real crisis has already arrived. The number of

foals born in the Florida dropped sharply in 2008 and has

continued to fall. "We've had a total collapse of the Ocala

market," Berube said. "Farms are closed or are in foreclosure.

It's a mess up there." Roy Lerman, a breeder and a long-time

Tampa Bay supporter, said, "When the Depression hit, the small

breeder could no longer sell that 'backyard horse' for a decent

price. They were producing the $10,000 to $25,000 horses that

would be the backbone of Tampa Bay. Now the small breeders have

disappeared."

Berube said that 30 percent of the runners at Tampa used to

come from farms and training centers in Ocala. That number has

dropped by half. "We knew this was a ticking time bomb," the

general manager said, "but I thought we'd have a few more years

before it impacted us. This year is the first time we've had

difficulty getting race cards filled."

Racetracks need to offer attractive purse money to compete

for a dwindling supply of horses. However, Tampa's purses are

meager — particularly for its bread-and-butter claiming races.

(They are lower, for example, than those at Laurel Park, even

though the size of Tampa's betting business dwarfs Laurel's.)

Good stables that have been Tampa fixtures are running at least

some of their horses elsewhere this winter — mostly at tracks,

such as Gulfstream Park, that offer purses augmented by

slot-machine money.

One possible course of action for Tampa would be to cut back

its schedule in an effort to bolster the size of its fields. But

there aren't going to be any easy remedies for the diminished

quality of competition, because the small thoroughbred crops of

2010 and 2011 are certain to impact the sport. Most tracks in the

country will also be grappling for answers to the problems that

Tampa has begun to face this winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.