Runners to Watch (Hawera)

[Steveo13]

Race 2 Legacy 

Legacy resumes over a suitable 1600m after three preparatory trials, including a 1200m trial win followed by a fourth on 15 September. Last campaign she won her maiden over this distance on Soft 5, running the race’s final 600m in 34.48 seconds, before placing over 2200m in Rating 65 company.

Her best results have come on rain-affected ground, with one win and two placings from six Soft-track starts. The latest official update lists Hawera as Soft 7, which is in her favour, although some third-party guides are displaying Heavy 8. 

The concerns are her first-up record, with no placings from two fresh starts, and barrier 13. She carries 57kg, which is reasonable for a rating-63 mare in Benchmark 65 company and gives her a weight advantage over several leading rivals carrying 59kg or 60kg

Verdict: Legacy is well suited by the distance, grade, weight and rain-affected footing. She may improve further with the run, but her three trials suggest she has been prepared to perform fresh. Barrier 13 is the main obstacle, making her a genuine each-way chance rather than a high-confidence win selection.

Speed Map & Race Shape

The pace looks moderate to genuine. Luckytobehere should use barrier 3 to settle forward, while Bruno and Wonderboy are drawn to take handy positions. Am I Blue can save ground from barrier 1, with Meloni and Steadfast likely to settle around midfield. 

From barrier 13, Legacy is likely to be restrained into the second half of the field to obtain cover. Hip Flask and Reconvene also draw wide, which could create some early pressure if their riders push forward. A genuine tempo would help Legacy, but she cannot afford to settle too far back around Hawera’s 350-metre straight. 

Top 5 Selections

1. Meloni

The clear early-market favourite. Lightly raced, drawn barrier 8 and comes off consecutive placings, including a third over 1600m. Carries 59kg but looks the runner with the strongest scope for improvement.

2. Legacy

Resumes after three trials and returns over her maiden-winning distance. The Soft 7 conditions and 57kg suit, giving her a 2kg advantage over Meloni. Barrier 13 and her unplaced first-up record are the main negatives. 

3. Wonderboy

Consistent without winning recently, finishing fifth, fourth and fourth at his latest three starts. Drawn well in barrier 4 and proven on Heavy ground, but must carry 60kg

4. Reconvene

Has two wins and two seconds from eight Heavy-track starts and has previously won over 1600m. However, barrier 11 and 60kg make this a difficult assignment. [

5. Hip Flask

Lightly raced, with a win and two seconds from five starts, all on Heavy ground. The 58.5kg is manageable, but barrier 12 means he will need luck finding cover.

Race 8 Breadwinner

Breadwinner looks well placed stepping from 1600m to 2100m after making ground from the rear to finish fifth at Trentham. She was steadied near the 800m and lost ground, so the run had more merit than the 6.3-length margin suggests. The race’s final 600m was 39.22 seconds, although this is the overall race sectional, not her individual split.

The 2100m is an unknown because she has not previously raced beyond 1650m. However, her recent runs suggest she may appreciate the rise in distance, and her breeding by Reliable Man supports that possibility. This remains an assessment rather than proven distance form.

The major advantage is the weight. Breadwinner is listed at 55.5kg and carries 52.5kg after the 3kg apprentice claim, giving her a substantial advantage over several leading chances. She has drawn barrier 2 and has an excellent Heavy-track record of one win and three other top-five finishes from five starts

Verdict: The distance is the query, but the wet track, inside draw, improving fitness and 52.5kg all work strongly in her favour. If she settles closer from barrier 2 and runs out the 2100m, she is a genuine winning chance. The early market has her as the favourite at around 5/1

Speed Map & Race Shape

The race appears likely to be run at a moderate tempo. Tai should use barrier 4 to settle prominently, with Breaker Bay and Leprekhan also positioned in the first half. Wry Smile and Malibu should settle around midfield, while wide-drawn runners such as Jack In the Box and Vespasian risk being caught deep or settling back. 

From barrier 2, Breadwinner should receive an economical run. She usually settles back, but the inside draw may allow her to hold a midfield position on the rail rather than dropping to last. That is important because a slow tempo could otherwise make her task difficult.

Top 5 Selections

1. Breadwinner

Gets the top selection because she is third-up, rises to a potentially suitable 2100m and carries only 52.5kg after the apprentice claim. Barrier 2 should help her settle closer than usual, while her Heavy-track record is a major positive. The untested distance is the key risk. 

2. Leprekhan

Comes off a third over 2200m at Trentham and is proven over staying distances. She carries 56kg after the claim and should secure a useful midfield position from barrier 7. A reliable each-way chance. 

3. Wry Smile

Won two starts ago and was fourth over 2200m at his latest appearance. He drops to 57kg after the apprentice claim, but his tendency to miss the start is a concern. 

4. Breaker Bay

Lightly raced with one win and a second from four starts. He has won at Hawera and looks capable of improving over 2100m, although he must rebound from an eighth over 1600m. 

5. Tai

Has two wins and two further placings from 11 starts and draws well in barrier 4. His recent ninth over 2200m needs forgiving, but he should obtain a good position and gets leading rider Joe Doyle.