Impossible odds

[Kiwi San]

A few years ago I was based in the UK there was a push to force bookmakers to state there overround (percentage) on all markets. It never got anywhere unfortunately. 

If this was compulsory in NZ then I doubt anyone would bet because the overround is HUGE. 

I calculated a few NZ races today around 11am local time. The percentages was between 125-130%. That is real high by international standards.

To explain how bad that is, if they had a market for a coin flip set to 129%, the prices would both be $1.55 and no one would bet. Why bet into a horse race at that percentage.

Even the Wellington Cup was 127% one hour before the race, even though the market is mature and the form exposed. The best gambler in the world can’t win at those percentages and will lose his money fast.

How long has it been this bad (I’ve been away a few years). 

[Pak Star]

35 minutes ago, Kiwi San said:

A few years ago I was based in the UK there was a push to force bookmakers to state there overround (percentage) on all markets. It never got anywhere unfortunately. 

If this was compulsory in NZ then I doubt anyone would bet because the overround is HUGE. 

I calculated a few NZ races today around 11am local time. The percentages was between 125-130%. That is real high by international standards.

To explain how bad that is, if they had a market for a coin flip set to 129%, the prices would both be $1.55 and no one would bet. Why bet into a horse race at that percentage.

Even the Wellington Cup was 127% one hour before the race, even though the market is mature and the form exposed. The best gambler in the world can’t win at those percentages and will lose his money fast.

How long has it been this bad (I’ve been away a few years). 

Been like that for ages.  It would be 130-140% during the "no deduction" era especially during winter.

You used to get better value when the markets first opened and it would slowly decline up to race day.  Lately I have noticed the opposite is happening, and the market is at its worst on opening (high 120s) and then comes back a fraction.  Of course if you really fancy one, the opening of the market is still often the best time to punt if you expect the runner to tighten, but overall I have noticed its best to wait.

[SingaporeSling]

Yep Kiwi San, spot on, should be mandatory to show the percentages, and not only should they show the percentage on the Win markets, but on all FO markets they offer. Some of these novelty fixed odds markets, like Same Race Multi, Exacta must be massive money makers for Entain, as I gather they use the FO as part of the calc, and probably still take more out on top of that (because they can, no one is checking).

If anyone ever wondered why Entain do not seem to promote Tote betting/odds, I suspect it is because they make more from FO spend than the tote spend. The NZ tote percentage on the Win pool (and Place pool) is still around 119%, to my knowledge, so better if you can get liquidity.

[PKR]

How interesting. Welcome back Kiwi San. Welcome back to the land of little transparency, of state santioned monopolized behaviour. For the small better it probably doesn't matter - win a few loose a few, an inglorious vice - but for the more serious gambler it's a hiding to nothing. 

[stodge]

Up here, the overounds are shown on the races as they are moving to the start.

The numbers for yeaterday's seven races at Catterick were:

123%, 112%, 115%, 112%, 115%, 117%, 111%

I've never known a race go overbroke (not surprisingly) but I have seen markets down to 105% or lower and if you shop round the ring you can just about on best prices get to 102% but never lower. The first race on the Catterick card was the only non-handicap and the 4/9 favourite was turned over. That's not always good for on-course books as the small punters like me (financial, not physical if you're interested) tend to oppose short priced favourites and if you get one beat it's usually a poor result for the bookie chappies.

Punters prefer to bet on handicaps as you have more chance of if not beating the book then running it close.

[Tauhei Notts]

Stodge, please correct me if I am wrong.

I understand that in England, if the calculated tote dividend is less than the official starting price, the Tote ups the winner's dividend to the official S.P.

When the market bets to 111% that must have a severe impact on the Tote's profitability.

But those Pommy bookies; if a veterinarian merely looks at a horse at the start that horse's price immediately drops.  That is so the deduction for a late scratching can be increased.

[Sickopunter]

But hold on, didn't they PROMISE they would give competitive odds once they got their monopoly?

 

 

[Gruff]

Add to that Thad Taylors 'input' and these ridiculous big bet exposures pre race you have the complete circus... every bet made should be on the public record for transparency

[We're Doomed]

There is a very good obituary in The Times today about Lord Zetland who revitalised Redcar racecourse. He was a big advocate for the Tote and believed the bookmakers were destroying British racing. He also introduced an interesting 2yo race, the Redcar Gold Trophy, where horses were handicapped according to their purchase price.

I will quote some of his comments when I get a moment.

You can see the same thing happening here with bookmakers starting to dominate and the tote being sidelined. It won't end well.

[Pak Star]

1 hour ago, Gruff said:

Add to that Thad Taylors 'input' and these ridiculous big bet exposures pre race you have the complete circus... every bet made should be on the public record for transparency

Gotta love how they have "big bet alerts" along with "worst result for the TAB" and then you see the odds of that runner go up a tick over the next 60-90 seconds . 

One would think if they were that exposed on any particular runner, they would shorten its price considerably and offer slightly inflated odds on the others to help balance the book.  But what would a mug like me know..

[PKR]

1 hour ago, We're Doomed said:

There is a very good obituary in The Times today about Lord Zetland who revitalised Redcar racecourse. He was a big advocate for the Tote and believed the bookmakers were destroying British racing. He also introduced an interesting 2yo race, the Redcar Gold Trophy, where horses were handicapped according to their purchase price.

I will quote some of his comments when I get a moment.

You can see the same thing happening here with bookmakers starting to dominate and the tote being sidelined. It won't end well.

I read somewhere that way back in the day a handshake was the only involvement - your horse against mine. But technology has a habit of changing things, most often for the good but frequently with (un)intended consequences. I was a young man when I left NZ for a working stint in Australia - well after the days of the hand shake I might add - and found the on-course bookmakers intriguing, lending color to what was then a totalizator monopoly in NZ. Then on to the UK where the race course was pure theatre. That was eons ago and I didn't realize there is now push back against the bookies in favour of the tote. Here in NZ we adopted 'the bookies' relatively recently, but a hybridized, monopolized version - not the oncourse chappies with their bags and runners - and all underpinned by digital technology. As the original post identifies its characterized by dodgy percentages and bugger all transparency - plus all the media bullshit like 'liability' on individual runners  and 'the 'big bet alerts' that hide that lack of transparency. With this scenario comes Entain, one of the world's largest sports betting and gaming groups, listed on the London Stock Exchange and the FTSE 100 Index and with allegiance only to shareholders - although how long that relationship lasts with the NZ Tab is up for debate. I agree WD, it won't end well.        

[stodge]

9 hours ago, We're Doomed said:

There is a very good obituary in The Times today about Lord Zetland who revitalised Redcar racecourse. He was a big advocate for the Tote and believed the bookmakers were destroying British racing. He also introduced an interesting 2yo race, the Redcar Gold Trophy, where horses were handicapped according to their purchase price.

I will quote some of his comments when I get a moment.

You can see the same thing happening here with bookmakers starting to dominate and the tote being sidelined. It won't end well.

Indeed, Redcar became a significant northern (or north eastern) track under Zetland's leadership following on the work begun by his father.

The Zetland Gold Cup is run on the late May Bank Holiday Monday and while not quite the race it was, is still a fierecely competitive 2000m handicap. 

As you say, the Redcar 2-y-o Trophy was a pioneering race aimed at giving the less expensive horse a chance at some serious prize money. It was arguably the first of what became the "sales" races up here but the Trophy is not about where the horse was redcar 2-y-o trophypurchased but as you say for how much. 

The race was started in 1993 and the best winner so far has been PIPALONG who won it in 1998 - she had been bought as a yearling for just 7,000 guineas and went on to be a high class sprinting filly in the north winning the Palace House and the Duke of York and placing at Group 1 level.

The Tote up here isn't like yours - it was sold/privatised a few years back.

[Leggy]

4 minutes ago, stodge said:

The Tote up here isn't like yours - it was sold/privatised a few years back.

It essentially has been here too hasn't it?

[stodge]

11 hours ago, Tauhei Notts said:

Stodge, please correct me if I am wrong.

I understand that in England, if the calculated tote dividend is less than the official starting price, the Tote ups the winner's dividend to the official S.P.

When the market bets to 111% that must have a severe impact on the Tote's profitability.

But those Pommy bookies; if a veterinarian merely looks at a horse at the start that horse's price immediately drops.  That is so the deduction for a late scratching can be increased.

The current deductions from Tote bets in the UK and Ireland as follows:

Tote Deductions – Multi-Race Bet Builder | Tix

If you go to a boards bookie or bet off course you can have your single and each way bets but not the more complex bets. More often than not, when on course, I bet with the bookies at the track - I only go to the Tote for something like a trifecta or an exacta.

Actually, IF a horse looks in trouble, the price will likely increase as punters won't want to know. The Rule 4 deduction numbers as follows:

What is Rule 4? Withdrawn Horse Betting Deductions Explained

The question is usually how soon before the off a withdrawal happens. Given most people bet late, a withdrawal 10-15 minutes before the race has little impact - it's the last few minutes which matter. Nowadays, the big problem is with young horses refusing the stalls and that can cause problems. The more contentious side is when the stalls open and the horse doesn't move - some punters argue as the horse hasn't raced,they should get their money back but the rule currently is once they are all locked up and come Under Starter's Orders, it's too late. It's worse with tape starts over the jumps.

[stodge]

2 minutes ago, Leggy said:

It essentially has been here too hasn't it?

Yes, I suppose it has if Entain run the whole thing.

There was a thing when the Totalisator over here was still in public ownership but it was sold first to Fred Done of Betfred bookmakers who paid £265 million and sold it to the UK Tote Group in 2019 for £115 million (bet that stung).

The number of open windows at racecourses has been cut right back and, to be blunt, it's basically the older punters who still use it. For the youngsters, it's all online or down in the jungle as the betting ring is termed (not at Lingfield on a quiet midweek afternoon where you only have to edge past the tumbleweed to get a bet on and don't forget to have the smelling salts handy if you want to bet £20).

[We're Doomed]

This is a bit of what he said.

Zetland was sometimes undervalued because of his lifelong devotion to the cause of a Tote monopoly of off-course betting, which was dismissed as a bee in the bonnet. His views mellowed with time and he came to believe that betting shops could be retained as commission agents for the Tote monopoly, rather than abolished altogether. Nevertheless, he continued to set the big three bookmakers by the ears by saying that racing could not prosper so long as they dominated the betting industry. Zetland made many speeches explaining British racing’s parlous financial state: one such in Australia received the response: “Jeez, we gave those Poms a 200-year start; now we are a hundred years ahead of them.”

In 1990 he commissioned an independent report, known as the Zetland report, which predicted dire consequences for racing if its finances were not improved. It found that for the annual £220 million contributed by owners they received a return of only £22 million. One solution proposed was to install a Tote outlet in all betting shops, with a commission of turnover of perhaps 3 per cent going to the bookmaker. Although the idea did not immediately take off, something similar, in the form of Tote Direct, was introduced only a few years later.

[Sickopunter]

On 1/31/2026 at 8:21 PM, Kiwi San said:

A few years ago I was based in the UK there was a push to force bookmakers to state there overround (percentage) on all markets. It never got anywhere unfortunately. 

If this was compulsory in NZ then I doubt anyone would bet because the overround is HUGE. 

I calculated a few NZ races today around 11am local time. The percentages was between 125-130%. That is real high by international standards.

To explain how bad that is, if they had a market for a coin flip set to 129%, the prices would both be $1.55 and no one would bet. Why bet into a horse race at that percentage.

Even the Wellington Cup was 127% one hour before the race, even though the market is mature and the form exposed. The best gambler in the world can’t win at those percentages and will lose his money fast.

How long has it been this bad (I’ve been away a few years). 

Well said and thanks for doing the maths as I am often too lazy, but I had a sense it was that bad. At this point I believe anyone still betting on fixed odds should be examined to ensure they have reasonable mental faculties. Its akin to predatorial lending in my opinion.

[stodge]

3 hours ago, Sickopunter said:

Well said and thanks for doing the maths as I am often too lazy, but I had a sense it was that bad. At this point I believe anyone still betting on fixed odds should be examined to ensure they have reasonable mental faculties. Its akin to predatorial lending in my opinion.

Quite the opposite up here. The notion of "taking a price" versus taking the SP is a hardy perennial question for punters.

The betting ring at most courses isn't what it was - I still remember the days of the tic-tac men sending money and odds up and down the ring - and when one bookie moves, they all generally follow and that is itself led by the betting exchanges.

The Tote isn't for serious punters betting win only. True, at most meetings, if you walked up to a bookie with a monkey (no, not a chimp, £500 in cash) said bookie would probably collapse and, after the smelling salts, offer £100 at the price you want and £200 at a shorter price, but at Cheltenham or Aintree or Ascot they'll stand a £50,000 cash bet without batting an eyelid.

Given most midweek cards are for the needy and the greedy, the players are usually the fiddlers as they are known (people like me for whom £25 is a big bet and a tenner a race my normal play (don't tell Mrs Stodge)).

I don't hear much on here about betting exchanges in NZ but I'm sure they exist and must be a big factor in shaping the available odds as well as in-running prices.

[SingaporeSling]

For those who don't want to do the Maths, I use the Racenet Odds page as it shows the Markets at the bottom. Here is Tauranga Race 1 today (131%) - the TAB FO , from what I note, always match the Neds and Ladbroke markets (obvious given same company and same platform).

[Matt2w]

3 hours ago, Sickopunter said:

Well said and thanks for doing the maths as I am often too lazy, but I had a sense it was that bad. At this point I believe anyone still betting on fixed odds should be examined to ensure they have reasonable mental faculties. Its akin to predatorial lending in my opinion.

I bet on fixed odds because I know what price I’m getting despite the percentage? If I get $3 in a 130% market, that’s better than if that comes in to $2.50 on the tote despite the market being 118%. I probably need to better track how often I’m beating SP to see if this is worth it in the long haul.

[stodge]

Fascinating to see the Tauranga analysis for which many thanks @SingaporeSling

Looking at the runners, 6 of the 13 were complete outsiders, one was over 20/1  and two others in double figures leaving the front of the market:

5/4, 5/2, 9/2, 6/1, 9/1 bar.

Perhaps a bit stingier than we might have it.

The 1.25 at Kempton today had 12 runners and returned 124% on the SPs.

The front of the market was:

7/4, 7/4, 5/1 with all the others 10s and bigger and the longest priced four horses 33/1, 100/1 and 250/1 twice.

I suspect our longer priced horses tipped the SP lower - the biggest priced at Tauranga was 200/1.

[HarryHindsight]

I did a quick check yesterday, one Tauranga race was @ 136%. The races I have checked jump @ greater than 120% FF .The tote percentages would be interesting with the rounding down. they are supposed to be 115%  ?
Who do you complain too ?
People can't win at the above percentages . I would think a takeout of 110% would be a lot more profitable for the TAB .It would certainly increase turnover, attract customers whose money would last longer.

Maybe the long-term plan is to ruin the horse racing industry, so they just have sports betting.

[PKR]

1 hour ago, HarryHindsight said:

I did a quick check yesterday, one Tauranga race was @ 136%. The races I have checked jump @ greater than 120% FF .The tote percentages would be interesting with the rounding down. they are supposed to be 115%  ?
Who do you complain too ?
People can't win at the above percentages . I would think a takeout of 110% would be a lot more profitable for the TAB .It would certainly increase turnover, attract customers whose money would last longer.

Maybe the long-term plan is to ruin the horse racing industry, so they just have sports betting.

That's a good question Harry. Who DO you complain to? 

There has been in NZ in recent years some high profile cases regarding casinos, the details of which I can't quite recall - but a quick Google check would identify them. I also can't recall who instigated these prosecutions, the result of individual complaints, some kind of gambling watch dog, or the in the name of fair play, the regulator itself, in this case the Department of Internal Affairs. 

I suspect the TAB is governed by the same rules and regulations as casinos. I may be mistaken but it makes sense that they are.  In my understanding the complaint first needs to go to the operator, in this case the NZ TAB/Entain. How that compliant is framed and how is worded would be crucial. If the issue cannot be resolved the next step is the regulator, the DIA. I shouldn't think it is an easy process. But if there is a case for the TAB/Entain 'breaking the law' - even bending the rules - then they would be accountable. 

Imv its all part and parcel of living in a land of monopolies - with little transparency. Arguably we see it in other domains. But in this case its a State sanctioned monopoly - complicated by the Entain deal - and that probably makes it a lot harder to get any traction.   

[uncleremus]

For info, here are the overrounds based on the fixed odds starting prices for the 6 races on Karaka Millions night at Ellerslie (in race number order):

120.0%, 121.2%, 123.2%, 123.2%, 121.7% and 123.3%.

It is quite common for the TAB to open the book at well above 130% and then reduce it closer to the 120% mark by start time.  What that means for us punters is that it may be much harder to find "value" in the opening prices, unless they really misprice a runner, as they have opened the book at such a high level.  The trick may be to wait until much closer to start time, so as to see how the price adjustments are progressing.

One thing I have noticed is that they often talk about "an alarming drift" in prices - especially for the favouite - when all they are doing is adjusting the prices upwards to reduce the overround down to target.  Don't get taken in by this when you hear Thad raving about it!

[SingaporeSling]

As I posted Race 1 at Tauranga, thought I would track the Market Percentage thru to the off. 1 hour to go, and still at 129% (so 131% into 129%).

Anyone predict what it will be at Start Time?