How Does This Work?

[Who Moi]

Ratings 65 race - all horses are racing in their correct grade.  Winner is rehandicapped +4 points (fair), 2nd +1 (fair), 3rd and 4th no change, 5th +1, 6th to 10th -1, 11th & 12th -2, 13th & 14th no change and 15th -3. How does the 5th gain a point when 3rd and 4th don't, 11 & 12 loose 2 but 13 & 14 loose none?  It just makes no sense. 

The winner is put up to "Intermediate" grade after only two wins.  Surely a young horse should be able to win 2 races in 65 ("Hack") before taking on what are essentially open class horses.  

[Farnarkler]

Nothing makes sense WM, nothing, there's no accountability, you call them out and they just circle the wagons, it's a shit fight of giant proportions, ......sadly.

[We're Doomed]

It's not something I follow very closely, but it does seem the SI is a bit disadvantaged at times. Horses down there seem to go up in the rankings very quickly, but then it is hard to drop points. 

Take Shaking Stevens for instance. Went up 27 points in five starts and then ran down the track in the Nuggets but didn't lose any points. Kick On who finished ahead of it lost 1 point as did Queen of Kings and Ocean Light who finished behind it.

It is obviously a very inexact science which I don't know much about.

[nomates]

1 minute ago, We're Doomed said:

It's not something I follow very closely, but it does seem the SI is a bit disadvantaged at times. Horses down there seem to go up in the rankings very quickly, but then it is hard to drop points. 

Take Shaking Stevens for instance. Went up 27 points in five starts and then ran down the track in the Nuggets but didn't lose any points. Kick On who finished ahead of it lost 1 point as did Queen of Kings and Ocean Light who finished behind it.

It is obviously a very inexact science which I don't know much about.

It's all over WD , our ratings system makes it easy to move a horse on , they go through the ratings far too fast but you need to hold a knife to someone's throat to lose points .

My horse Wild Night went to Aus and in 3 races ran 5th and 2 lasts , never lost a point , came back and had 2 more in Black type races , ran a 4th for no change then 8th in the Easter and again didn't lose a point .

They are trying to manufacture horses through to open grade and keep them there because we have a massive shortage of true open grade horses . Look at the spread of ratings in most average open hdcps .

I seen a 2yo horse last year called Rufus run 4th in a 6 horse Champagne Stakes at Ellerslie , 6 1/2 lengths off the winner , got 16 points . Hasn't won a race but rated 63 and now as a 3yo can't win a mdn , but a maiden win will rate him into 75 grade so won't even get a decent crack at a 65 race unless it lumps a massive weight . F#$ken ridiculous .

Go have a look at Dusty Road , poor bloody horse can 't get a break , lumped with top weight through the winter , runs 3 3rds in 11 starts and has hardly moved in the ratings , even with 8 fails . 

We need to go back to set weights through the grades with penalties for horses choosing to drop back with more wins than the grade is allowed .

STOP trying to match the rest of the world and fix NZ racing to suit NZ racing .

[Farnarkler]

It resembles a drinking game WD, or a game featuring a dart board.

[nomates]

Just now, Farnarkler said:

It resembles a drinking game WD, or a game featuring a dart board.

That's certainly how it looks .

[We're Doomed]

It is obviously a tricky business these days with horses much happier to run out of their class and bugger the consequences.

In the SI that is often because of the terrible programming and horses don't have any opportunities in their own class. In the NI it is often because of the tiny fields and trainers see some easy pickings. Trentham this weekend, only five in the open sprint and two of them are rating 69 and 70.

Wanganui last weekend the open race also a field of only five, won by a rating 73 who went up 6 points. The interesting thing about that race, the fourth placegetter Herbert dropped 2 points for running fourth.  So Herbert drops 2 points for running fourth in a $50,000 race, earned over $2,500. Shaking Stevens runs runs 8th in a $40,000 race, earns bugger all and loses no points.

[Leggy]

37 minutes ago, Who Moi said:

Ratings 65 race - all horses are racing in their correct grade.  Winner is rehandicapped +4 points (fair), 2nd +1 (fair), 3rd and 4th no change, 5th +1, 6th to 10th -1, 11th & 12th -2, 13th & 14th no change and 15th -3. How does the 5th gain a point when 3rd and 4th don't, 11 & 12 loose 2 but 13 & 14 loose none?  It just makes no sense. 

The winner is put up to "Intermediate" grade after only two wins.  Surely a young horse should be able to win 2 races in 65 ("Hack") before taking on what are essentially open class horses.  

Which race?

[nomates]

7 minutes ago, We're Doomed said:

It is obviously a tricky business these days with horses much happier to run out of their class and bugger the consequences.

In the SI that is often because of the terrible programming and horses don't have any opportunities in their own class. In the NI it is often because of the tiny fields and trainers see some easy pickings. Trentham this weekend, only five in the open sprint and two of them are rating 69 and 70.

Wanganui last weekend the open race also a field of only five, won by a rating 73 who went up 6 points. The interesting thing about that race, the fourth placegetter Herbert dropped 2 points for running fourth.  So Herbert drops 2 points for running fourth in a $50,000 race, earned over $2,500. Shaking Stevens runs runs 8th in a $40,000 race, earns bugger all and loses no points.

For your answer look at the post 2 above yours .

[We're Doomed]

And then when you get a SI race like the Timaru Cup, with numerous highly rated horses, that doesn't count when it comes to allocating black type despite it being vastly superior to several NI black type races, because those are "SI ratings" of course so don't mean the same as NI points.

[shaneMcAlister]

41 minutes ago, Who Moi said:

Ratings 65 race - all horses are racing in their correct grade.  Winner is rehandicapped +4 points (fair), 2nd +1 (fair), 3rd and 4th no change, 5th +1, 6th to 10th -1, 11th & 12th -2, 13th & 14th no change and 15th -3. How does the 5th gain a point when 3rd and 4th don't, 11 & 12 loose 2 but 13 & 14 loose none?  It just makes no sense. 

The winner is put up to "Intermediate" grade after only two wins.  Surely a young horse should be able to win 2 races in 65 ("Hack") before taking on what are essentially open class horses.  

Without knowing the race this is a hard question to answer.  The horse that was 5th might have been on a lower rating than those 3th and 4th so essentially just reducing the ratings gap.

[Leggy]

5 minutes ago, We're Doomed said:

It is obviously a tricky business these days with horses much happier to run out of their class and bugger the consequences.

That's as you suggest, primarily because the alternative is to pay 2 months training fees while you wait for a suitable race in their class.

If they're not good enough to win out of their class, then you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. A new career is really the only sensible option.

I think at the same time NZTR are trying to increase starter numbers and field sizes:)

[nomates]

Just now, Leggy said:

That's as you suggest, primarily because the alternative is to pay 2 months training fees while you wait for a suitable race in their class.

If they're not good enough to win out of their class, then you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. A new career is really the only sensible option.

I think at the same time NZTR are trying to increase starter numbers and field sizes:)

And that is the problem , the ratings were brought in to help horses to navigate up and down as appropriate to their level of ability , but because we have very few horses after overseas sales etc we are left with very few horses that are genuine open horses , so to compensate we actively promote horses through the grades faster than their ability to help maintain decent numbers in those open races , and we make sure they don't go back down very easily , if at all .

[nomates]

4 minutes ago, shaneMcAlister said:

Without knowing the race this is a hard question to answer.  The horse that was 5th might have been on a lower rating than those 3th and 4th so essentially just reducing the ratings gap.

The way we run ratings like you mention is far too convoluted , we have to find a hybrid system that works better for the quality of product we now have .

[Farnarkler]

24 minutes ago, nomates said:

The way we run ratings like you mention is far too convoluted , we have to find a hybrid system that works better for the quality of product we now have .

They reinvented the wheel NM, it worked for a while, but now it's up shit creek, and the paddle is floating away. go back to basics, it worked for us for 60 odd years, maybe 80, bite the bullet and go again......it's not that hard.

[JJ Flash]

1 hour ago, We're Doomed said:

And then when you get a SI race like the Timaru Cup, with numerous highly rated horses, that doesn't count when it comes to allocating black type despite it being vastly superior to several NI black type races, because those are "SI ratings" of course so don't mean the same as NI points.

Ones in the Thordon mile tomorrow and ran 2nd last time it ventured that way

[Who Moi]

3 hours ago, Leggy said:

Which race?

The last at Riccarton Wed

[Leggy]

16 minutes ago, Who Moi said:

The last at Riccarton Wed

Well for starters, in that race, the 5th horse, Sincere, lost a point. It didn't gain one.

[BSherwin]

11 hours ago, Who Moi said:

Ratings 65 race - all horses are racing in their correct grade.  Winner is rehandicapped +4 points (fair), 2nd +1 (fair), 3rd and 4th no change, 5th +1, 6th to 10th -1, 11th & 12th -2, 13th & 14th no change and 15th -3. How does the 5th gain a point when 3rd and 4th don't, 11 & 12 loose 2 but 13 & 14 loose none?  It just makes no sense. 

The winner is put up to "Intermediate" grade after only two wins.  Surely a young horse should be able to win 2 races in 65 ("Hack") before taking on what are essentially open class horses.  

5th -1?

13th was a last start winner - does not drop at next start (only last start maiden winners can drop). Applies also to Shaking Stevens query

14th had a vet issue - cannot drop.

[Leggy]

Thanks Bruce

[We're Doomed]

10 hours ago, BSherwin said:

5th -1?

13th was a last start winner - does not drop at next start (only last start maiden winners can drop). Applies also to Shaking Stevens query

14th had a vet issue - cannot drop.

It is great to get that informed feedback. As I said above, I know very little about handicapping. I had no idea last start winners couldn't lose points at their next start.

If we had responses like this to several of the points raised on here it would save a lot of conjecture and speculation.

[nomates]

13 hours ago, BSherwin said:

5th -1?

13th was a last start winner - does not drop at next start (only last start maiden winners can drop). Applies also to Shaking Stevens query

14th had a vet issue - cannot drop.

Thanks for replying Bruce , I simply don't understand the logic that just because a horse won it's last start it cannot drop points for going badly next start , what is the logic behind this . If a last start winner wins again it gets more points so why does the reverse not apply .

Even if the 14th horse went poorly because of a vet issue why should it not lose a point , it's not like it's being done deliberately , "cannot drop" seems very much set in concrete .

The Shaking Stevens situation adds to what I think , we get our horses through the grades far too easily but once there it takes dynamite to lose points .

Perhaps you could clarify exactly why a last start winner cannot drop points and what it achieves .

Thankyou .

[Leggy]

@nomates you could ask why? about a lot of the rating and handicapping policy but those are the rules as they stand and Bruce and the handicapping team's hands are tied on this. https://nztr.co.nz/sites/nztrindustry/files/2023-05/May2022_HandicappingPolicy.pdf

The Handicapper may decide not to lower a horse’s Rating despite that
horse having finished well back in a race in the following circumstances:
• Where a horse is racing at an unsuitable distance (such as a stayer
in sprint events);
• Horses that have won their most recent race. (outside of winning a
maiden race which will be at the discretion of the handicapper, in
almost all cases the rating will be held for one run.)

[nomates]

9 minutes ago, Leggy said:

@nomates you could ask why? about a lot of the rating and handicapping policy but those are the rules as they stand and Bruce and the handicapping team's hands are tied on this. https://nztr.co.nz/sites/nztrindustry/files/2023-05/May2022_HandicappingPolicy.pdf

The Handicapper may decide not to lower a horse’s Rating despite that
horse having finished well back in a race in the following circumstances:
• Where a horse is racing at an unsuitable distance (such as a stayer
in sprint events);
• Horses that have won their most recent race. (outside of winning a
maiden race which will be at the discretion of the handicapper, in
almost all cases the rating will be held for one run.)

As I said before I see most of these "rules" there to keep horses artificially up in the grades once there .

If it's being done to stay in line with other racing jurisdictions it's time to stop because we simply haven't got either the quality nor depth of horses .

Find a system that works best for NZ racing .

[Farnarkler]

2 hours ago, nomates said:

Thanks for replying Bruce , I simply don't understand the logic that just because a horse won it's last start it cannot drop points for going badly next start , what is the logic behind this . If a last start winner wins again it gets more points so why does the reverse not apply .

Even if the 14th horse went poorly because of a vet issue why should it not lose a point , it's not like it's being done deliberately , "cannot drop" seems very much set in concrete .

The Shaking Stevens situation adds to what I think , we get our horses through the grades far too easily but once there it takes dynamite to lose points .

Perhaps you could clarify exactly why a last start winner cannot drop points and what it achieves .

Thankyou .

Logic?.......can't wait to see the response on that one, you've stumped them NM.