Melbourne Cup 2024 - November 5th

[stodge 2,222]

I thought I'd start a new topic on a race which has worldwide interest.

@scooby3051 - could this one be pinned rather than have lots of separate little topics?

I'll offer thoughts and perspectives on the European challenge for the great race which is just nine weeks away.

Nominations this morning - 123, down slightly on this time last year.

2024 Melbourne Cup Nominations | Racenet

CRYSTAL BLACK isn't in the entries which will be a surprise to some - he can still be supplemented. His win in the Ballyroan was impressive and he's in the Kilternan at Leopardstown (over 2400m) on Saturday September 14th.

The European trained nominations (as distinct from those horses who raced in Europe but are now trained in Australia) are:

ABSURDE - Willie Mullins

ARREST - John & Thady Gosden

DELIUS - Jean Claude Rouget

GROSVENOR SQUARE - Aidan O'Brien

HARBOUR WIND - Dermot Weld

HIPOP DE LOIRE - Willie Mullins

ILLINOIS - Aidan O'Brien

JAN BREUGHEL - Aidan O'Brien

KINESIOLOGY - Jessica Harrington

MAGICAL ZOE - Henry de Bromhead

NIGHT SPARKLE - Andrew Balding

ONESMOOTHOPERATOR - Brian Ellison

POINT LONSDALE - Aidan O'Brien

RELENTLESS VOYAGER - Andrew Balding

SEA KING - Harry Eustace

THE EQUATOR - Aidan O'Brien

THE EUPHRATES - Aidan O'Brien

VAUBAN - Willie Mullins

20 overseas nominations in total - a couple from Japan I think. HIPOP DE LOIRE was very unlucky in the Ebor and there's a view up here IF getting into the race could have a big say. A number of the above have engagements in the middle of the month either in the St Leger at Doncaster or at Irish Champions Weekend.

[scooby3051 11,931]

I wont pin it as I do not want too many posts cluttering up the top especially for mobile users, but I will try to keep any MC posts funnelled to this thread.

[stodge 2,222]

5 minutes ago, scooby3051 said:

I wont pin it as I do not want too many posts cluttering up the top especially for mobile users, but I will try to keep any MC posts funnelled to this thread.

Thank you - appreciate it.

This is the timetable according to Racenet:

First Nominations	Fee $1500	September 3rd
Late Nominations	Fee $5500	September 10th
Handicaps Declared		September 17th
First Declarations	Fee $2000	October 1st
Second Declarations	Fee $3000	October 15th
Third Declarations	Fee $4000	October 29th
Final Declarations + Field	Fee $49,500	Announced Saturday November 2nd 4:30pm (local time). Barrier draw at 5:30pm

[Ohokaman 6,127]

$8.56m MELBOURNE CUP

Tuesday, November 7 Flemington (3200m)

1. Absurde (FR, Willie Mullins)

2. Adelaide River (IRE, Kris Lees)

3. Age Of Sail (GB, Kris Lees)

4. Ahuriri (NZ, Chris Waller)

5. Alegron (Bjorn Baker)

6. Almairac (IRE, Cliff Brown)

7. Ardakan (GB, Ciaron Maher)

8. Arrest (IRE, John & Thady Gosden)

9. Athabascan (FR, John O'Shea & Tom Charlton)

10. Aurora's Symphony (Symon Wilde)

11. Balance Play (IRE, Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott)

12. Bankers Choice (NZ, Michael Moroney & Glen Thompson)

13. Basilinna (NZ, Emma-Lee & David Browne)

14. Bear On The Loose (IRE, Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott)

15. Berkshire Breeze (IRE, Ciaron Maher)

16. Birdman (IRE, Chris Waller)

17. Brayden Star (GB, Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young)

18. Buckaroo (GB, Chris Waller)

19. Changingoftheguard (IRE, Kris Lees)

20. Circle Of Fire (GB, Ciaron Maher)

21. Cleveland (IRE, Kris Lees)

22. Coco Sun (Tony & Calvin McEvoy)

23. Convener (FR, Ciaron Maher)

24. Dashing Duchess (NZ, Symon Wilde)

25. Delius (GB, Jean-Claude Rouget)

26. Denmark (GB, Chris Waller)

27. Deny Knowledge (IRE, Anthony & Sam Freedman)

28. Dillian (IRE, Ciaron Maher)

29. Divus Romulus (IRE, Nick Ryan)

30. Don't Doubt Dory (Julien Welsh)

31. Dunleer Lad (Amy Small)

32. El Bodegon (IRE, Chris Waller)

33. Eliyass (FR, Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott)

34. Emissary (GB, Michael Moroney & Glen Thompson)

35. Etna Rosso (IRE, Chris Waller)

36. Fancy Man (IRE, Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald)

37. Fawkner Park (IRE, Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald)

38. Firestorm (NZ, Chris Waller)

39. Foxy Cleopatra (Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young)

40. Francesco Guardi (IRE, Chris Waller)

41. Future History (GB, Ciaron Maher)

42. Gear Up (IRE, Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald)

43. Good Oil (NZ, Andrew Forsman)

44. Grosvenor Square (IRE, Aidan O'Brien)

45. Haaracaine (IRE, Nick Ryan)

46. Harbour Wind (IRE, Dermot Weld) 

47. Hipop De Loire (FR, Willie Mullins)

48. Horrifying (NZ, Lindsey Smith)

49. Illinois (IRE, Aidan O'Brien)

50. Immediacy (NZ, Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young)

51. Interpretation (IRE, Ciaron Maher)

52. Jan Brueghel (IRE, Aidan O'Brien)

53. Just Fine (IRE, Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott)

54. Kalapour (IRE, Kris Lees)

55. Karburan (FR, Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young)

56. Kinesiology (GB, Jessica Harrington)

57. Knight's Choice (John Symons & Sheila Laxon)

58. Kovalica (NZ, Chris Waller)

59. Land Legend (FR, Chris Waller)

60. Le Don De Vie (GB, Ciaron Maher)

61. Lionel (GB, Ciaron Maher)

62. Magical Zoe (IRE, Henry De Bromhead)

63. Mahrajaan (USA, Shaune Ritchie & Colm Murray)

64. Manzoice (Chris Waller)

65. Mare Of Mt Buller (Chris Waller)

66. Medatsu (NZ, Chris Waller)

67. Middle Earth (GB, Ciaron Maher)

68. Military Mission (IRE, Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott)

69. Mission Of Love (John Symons & Sheila Laxon)

70. Molly Bloom (NZ, Chris Waller)

71. Mostly Cloudy (IRE, Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young)

72. Muramasa (Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young)

73. Nereus (NZ, Shaune Ritchie & Colm Murray)

74. New Endeavour (IRE, Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott)

75. Night Sparkle (IRE, Andrew Balding)

76. Okita Soushi (IRE, Ciaron Maher)

77. Onesmoothoperator (USA, Brian Ellison)

78. Pennyweka (NZ, Ciaron Maher)

79. Place Du Carrousel (IRE, Anthony & Sam Freedman)

80. Point King (IRE, Anthony & Sam Freedman)

81. Point Lonsdale (IRE, Aidan O'Brien)

82. Poptronic (GB, Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott)

83. Positivity (NZ, Andrew Forsman)

84. Post Impressionist (IRE, Anthony & Sam Freedman)

85. Promises Kept (Ciaron Maher)

86. Quantum Cat (USA, Chris Waller)

87. Que Tempesta (IRE, Ben, Will & JD Hayes)

88. Red Aces (Nick Ryan)

89. Relentless Voyager (GB, Andrew Balding)

90. Riff Rocket (Chris Waller)

91. Royal Champion (IRE, Anthony & Sam Freedman)

92. Royal Patronage (FR, Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott)

93. Royal Supremacy (IRE, Ciaron Maher)

94. Saint George (GB, Ciaron Maher)

95. Sayedaty Sadaty (IRE, Ciaron Maher)

96. Sea King (GB, Harry Eustace)

97. Sea What I See (IRE, Danny O'Brien)

98. Sentimental Flame (Travis Doudle)

99. Serpentine (IRE, Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott)

100. Shaiyhar (IRE, Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young)

101. Sharp 'N' Smart (NZ, Graeme & Deborah Rogerson)

102. Shonan Bashitto (JPN, Naosuke Sugai)

103. Sir Lucan (IRE, Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott)

104. Strathtay (NZ, Chris Waller)

105. Suizuro (Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young)

106. The Equator (IRE, Aidan O'Brien)

107. The Euphrates (GB, Aidan O'Brien)

108. The Map (Dan Clarken & Oopy MacGillivray)

109. Think 'N' Fly (David Noonan)

110. Trust In You (NZ, Bruce Wallace & Grant Cooksley)

111. Uncle Bryn (GB, Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young)

112. Unusual Legacy (NZ, Chris Waller)

113. Up And Under (FR, Chris Waller)

114. Valiant King (GB, Chris Waller)

115. Vauban (FR, Willie Mullins)

116. Via Sistina (IRE, Chris Waller)

117. Waltham (GB, Matthew Smith)

118. Warmonger (NZ, Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr)

119. Warp Speed (JPN, Noboru Takagi)

120. Way Up High (Dan O'Sullivan)

121. Whisky On The Hill (GB, Michael Moroney & Glen Thompson)

122. Without A Fight (IRE, Anthony & Sam Freedman)

123. Zardozi (James Cummings)

[Ponderosa8 1,440]

Interesting that Pennyweka is listed for Ciaron Maher.  I thought she had been retired due to injury.

[chiknsmack 547]

3 hours ago, Ponderosa8 said:

Interesting that Pennyweka is listed for Ciaron Maher.  I thought she had been retired due to injury.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/racing/two-time-oaks-winner-pennyweka-might-return-to-racing/5BPIH3GKL5EFJCLSCUEKBPVEZY/

[stodge 2,222]

Dermot Weld announced this morning HARBOUR WIND will not be going to Melbourne so that's one off the European list.

Aidan O'Brien has meanwhile sounded off about the veterinary requirements imposed by Racing Victoria and has suggested none of his intended runners may participate. His concern realtes to the 3-y-o who are still developing physically and the requirement for a CT scan of distal limbs before departure.

It's not an area in which I have much knowledge but I do know 3-y-o are still physically maturing and of course Northern Hemisphere 3-y-o are six months less developed than their Southern Hemisphere counterparts.

[stodge 2,222]

MAGICAL ZOE, the Ebor winner, won't be going to Flemington either. Given she was a confirmed runner with the status of the Ebor as a "win it and you're in it" race, that will give one of the lower weights a possible entry.

[stodge 2,222]

Weights for the race:

Melbourne Cup Weights 2024 (punters.com.au)

[Blaird 273]

Willie Mullins books William Buick for Vauban, taking over from Ryan Moore who rode him last year. Vauban is set to enter quarantine in Newmarket next week before he flies to Australia two weeks later.

[Houlahan's Dream 578]

Vauban looked good in the Irish St Leger. 

Might be a better chance this yr. 

[stodge 2,222]

News earlier in the week Aidan O'Brien will have a single runner in the Melbourne Cup but that will be English St Leger winner JAN BRUEGHEL.

The likes of CROSS COUNTER and REWILDING came out of that race so he's not to be underestimated having maintained his unbeaten record on Town Moor beating stable companion ILLINOIS.

Up here JAN BRUEGHEL and VAUBAN are 8/1 joint favourites currently with CIRCLE OF FIRE at 10s.

[Blaird 273]

The following internationals arrived in Australia yesterday - Sea King, Onesmoothoperator, Sayedaty Sadaty and Birdman

[stodge 2,222]

Weights through this morning and the European challenge has been thinned out quite a bit.

Melbourne Cup winner ruled out of title defence but key Irish entries remain in contention | Racing Post

Just five still in the care of British and Irish trainers in the 72 acceptors.

Willie Mullins has VAUBAN and ABSURDE, Aidan O'Brien has JAN BRUEGHEL. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR goes for Brian Ellison and all of those should get a run. SEA KING for Harry Eustace looks unlikely to make the field.

VAUBAN is 7/1 favourite up here with JAN BRUEGHEL at 8s and money has come for WARMONGER at 9s.

[Ohokaman 6,127]

10 hours ago, stodge said:

Weights through this morning and the European challenge has been thinned out quite a bit.

Melbourne Cup winner ruled out of title defence but key Irish entries remain in contention | Racing Post

Just five still in the care of British and Irish trainers in the 72 acceptors.

Willie Mullins has VAUBAN and ABSURDE, Aidan O'Brien has JAN BRUEGHEL. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR goes for Brian Ellison and all of those should get a run. SEA KING for Harry Eustace looks unlikely to make the field.

VAUBAN is 7/1 favourite up here with JAN BRUEGHEL at 8s and money has come for WARMONGER at 9s.

Wasting their money on Vauban. Hasn’t got the turn of foot to win this.

[scooby3051 11,931]

1 hour ago, Ohokaman said:

Wasting their money on Vauban. Hasn’t got the turn of foot to win this.

Didn't stay last year either I feel...agree maybe tough for him

[Ohokaman 6,127]

Defending Champ out….

[Houlahan's Dream 578]

7 hours ago, scooby3051 said:

Didn't stay last year either I feel...agree maybe tough for him

Not sure I agree with that. He did not run in Aus before the cup I believe, last effort being August 23 at York? His effort in the Irish St Leger looked super and....dunno, I think Mullins is a tremendous horseman and perhaps he learnt something last year about how to get a horse ready for MC. 

[stodge 2,222]

As far as VAUBAN is concerned, I'm convinced he stays 3200m - he did so at York in the Lonsdale and runs regularly over hurdles at the distance.

He was 15 lengths behind CONSTITUTION HILL in the 2023 Champion Hurdle but no one has rung up Nicky Henderson to ask him if he fancies a go at the Melbourne Cup.

Seriously - he didn't stay 4000m in the Gold Cup and I suspect the tempo of the race would be a big factor as well. I agree he doesn't have a finishing kick as such and that may be the problem at Flemington where you really need a good 2400m horse who can be settled near the pace and then kick in the straight.

As to what happened last year, Willie Mullins has said the horse's stellar piece of work a week before the race was his race - after that, the horse wasn't the same and struggled with the heat and humidity. I believe he is sending his horses out later this year and will be hoping for some cooler conditions. 

He's not my idea of the winner - to be honest, if you put him and JAN BRUEGHEL in a race up here, everyone would be on the Leger winner but the handicapper hasn't given JAN BRUEGHEL the same chance he gave the likes of CROSS COUNTER or REWILDING. Interestingly, BIRDMAN gets 9 lbs from the Leger winner and up here he's rated 8 lbs inferior. On a line through ILLINOIS you could argue BIRDMAN is well in. 

You could argue the same for SAYEDATY SADATY who also gets 9 lbs from JAN BRUEGHEL but was only four lengths behind him at Goodwood and did run fourth in the English Derby seven and a half lengths behind CITY OF TROY who would, in my view, win the Cox Plate without breaking sweat but the "lads" have bigger fish to fry in California. The problem is whether he or BIRDMAN get a run? 

I suppose if you think you don't need a stayer and the ground came up really soft, VIA SISTINA would be the one - again, if she were mine, I'd be heading for Caulfield but what do I know?

[Pak Star 897]

Of the 72 acceptances remaining, only 18 are handicapped over 52kgs, and there is a real chance that the top weight will carry 55.5kgs this year.

Could be a few top jocks watching from the rail this year, and a good opportunity for some featherweights as there will be a scramble to find 24 quality riders at this weight scale.  Jamie Kah could be the engagement to follow..

 

Cup chances for lightweight hoops | RACING.COM