Tuesday meeting at Cambridge thoughts?

[Aaron The Anchor 290]

Thoughts on the first Tuesday meeting out of Cambridge?
It was originally suggested that sakes would be 5K, I see they are 8K. Is this subject to change?
Would like to hear thoughts especially from trainers or long time owners. 
Could it be a positive for NI Harness? Don't shoot me.... I'm just asking the question lol
It makes me wonder if more horses might get sent North to new trainers?

Could this also be a good meeting for horses that become "stale" in a grade that has big feild numbers and the horse continues to draw poorly or has "bad luck" 
Where a horse finally breaks through from a grade that has the bigger feild numbers on a night that it has been in for awhile and then goes on to string together some nice results in a grade with smaller numbers.

Again... don't shoot me for asking questions just genuinely interested in thoughts

[Alf Riston 2,142]

It will be probaby similar to what Redcliffe in QLD offers.

They won't be the bravest lot in training going around, but having something on a regular basis will allow trainers to place these horses accordingly.

Most candidites would be from the South Auckland /  Waikato so not the most arduos or expensive transport either for most.

So for mine, not the worst option.

But I'm not paying the feed or vet bills 

[Insider 5,170]

I'll throw in another thought.

It could be the reverse of the galloping game where the "slow coaches" get sent South where they then become competitive!

In this instance the "slow coaches" from Canterbury/Southland can head North for the same result.

[lamour 724]

39 minutes ago, Aaron The Anchor said:

Thoughts on the first Tuesday meeting out of Cambridge?
It was originally suggested that sakes would be 5K, I see they are 8K. Is this subject to change?
Would like to hear thoughts especially from trainers or long time owners. 
Could it be a positive for NI Harness? Don't shoot me.... I'm just asking the question lol
It makes me wonder if more horses might get sent North to new trainers?

Could this also be a good meeting for horses that become "stale" in a grade that has big feild numbers and the horse continues to draw poorly or has "bad luck" 
Where a horse finally breaks through from a grade that has the bigger feild numbers on a night that it has been in for awhile and then goes on to string together some nice results in a grade with smaller numbers.

Again... don't shoot me for asking questions just genuinely interested in thoughts

Check out the transformational change thread.  We have been discussing it there

[Nelli 552]

As an owner who has been racing horses in the North with professional trainers since the 1980s, it is all about the handicapping. Placing in a $15-20K race at Auckland pays 2x more bills than an $8K at Cambridge so theoretically the ratings for winning "run of the mill" races at these venues should be at a similar ratios to keep owners and their horses in the game. It costs just the same to train and race an R40 horse and an R60 horse. We raced at Cambridge tonight (learner that doesn't go Auckland way round and is no champ) and for us it is just wait and see.

[lamour 724]

29 minutes ago, Alf Riston said:

It will be probaby similar to what Redcliffe in QLD offers.

They won't be the bravest lot in training going around, but having something on a regular basis will allow trainers to place these horses accordingly

Agree with you Alf.  The difference I imagine is that if you win a race at Redcliffe you probably don’t get rerated so you have to go up against the good metro horses on a Friday or Saturday meeting at Albion Park yet that is what is effectively happening to horses that win at Cambridge on Tuesdays. 

[Alf Riston 2,142]

6 minutes ago, lamour said:

The difference I imagine is that if you win a race at Redcliffe you probably don’t get rerated so you have to go up against the good metro horses

Agree with you on this lamour, so the key to this succeeding is to make sure HRNZ handicap accordingly. 

Redcliffe is usually a bunch of regulars going around each week, waiting for 'their turn' to get the right trip and land some stakemoney .

And if they find a purple patch of form for whatever reason, they can try their luck on the Night Of Lights with the big boys.  

[Alicia Harrison 38]

Agree with most points, I think it is a good option for those low and middle grade horses, if they do it right and they get a low amount of points and the programming doesn’t continue to clash with Auckland. Essentially Redcliffe works as they win don’t get too many points and back up again maybe even twice in a week so they’re back in their grade within the month. Which is where we’ve really been struggling up here as it takes too long to drop back in grade which costs owners 2-3 months training fees etc, so financially makes more sense to flick them to Aussie. Hopefully if they do the rating points right this can occur here as it was some good competitive racing tonight for what they are, and middle of the market punters are probably more likely to bet where they think they can get one up at longer odds than on some of the short priced favs we’ve had in recent history when the ratings are over a 20 point spread. I think in the short term the concept will probably struggle in coming weeks but hopefully in the long term people might retain horses they’d sell after one win and the old grass track type horses that have disappeared from the north island since the closure of the summer circuits as there’s been no place for them. But it will be interesting to see and could certainly go either way if it’s not tinkered with and gotten right as it progresses 

[Lord Wilf 90]

I am intrigued by this emphasis on revitalizing harness at Cambridge and Auckland.  It's good and overdue....but what efforts are being put into other regions? Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast....or Timaru/Oamaru/Dunedin?

[Aaron The Anchor 290]

3 minutes ago, Lord Wilf said:

I am intrigued by this emphasis on revitalizing harness at Cambridge and Auckland.  It's good and overdue....but what efforts are being put into other regions? Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast....or Timaru/Oamaru/Dunedin?

When you mention these names I think grass harness. 

Other than that.....

[Idolmite 3,398]

45 minutes ago, Lord Wilf said:

I am intrigued by this emphasis on revitalizing harness at Cambridge and Auckland.  It's good and overdue....but what efforts are being put into other regions? Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast....or Timaru/Oamaru/Dunedin?

Because Auckland and Cambridge basically translate into "North Island" in harness terms, the "region" which also happens to be home to 3 out of every 4 Kiwis [it's actually slightly more than 3 out of every 4, being 77% as of June 2023]. I guess it's called "prioritising".

[Lord Wilf 90]

True. I just find it sad that areas/tracks that I remember well, are now effectively dead as Harness centres.  Wellington,  Greymouth and sadly Dunedin are all gone. Who will be next?

[Idolmite 3,398]

5 minutes ago, Lord Wilf said:

True. I just find it sad that areas/tracks that I remember well, are now effectively dead as Harness centres.  Wellington,  Greymouth and sadly Dunedin are all gone. Who will be next?

Yes. I used to enjoy the annual grass track meetings at the likes of Thames and other more used Waikato and Bay of Plenty galloping venues, but they are all no longer too. Hutt Park and Forbury Park are certainly both even bigger losses. 

[Aaron The Anchor 290]

I actually forget these meetings are replacing the Thursday/Friday meetings there, they are not an added extra.
So I guess this is a big kick in the guts for the club especially for people trackside buying drinks and food

[eljay 1,787]

Flow on to Palmy will be interesting too.      With a Tuesday every week at Cambridge affect their noms?     I suppose only time will tell.

 

Also will it affect the Naki trainers?

[Charlie E 668]

I don't know about you guys , but its getting boring seeing the same fields in the North week after week . I rarely punt now I don't feel motivated like I used to be . If the minister did his homework and actually worked out the monthly cost for owners . They will realize why people aren't getting into Harness racing and why others are leaving 

[Palliser 1,243]

On 8/6/2024 at 10:01 PM, Idolmite said:

Yes. I used to enjoy the annual grass track meetings at the likes of Thames and other more used Waikato and Bay of Plenty galloping venues, but they are all no longer too. Hutt Park and Forbury Park are certainly both even bigger losses. 

Yep agree, you wouldn't even know there was a harness racing and greyhound track at Hutt Park. Once it's gone it's gone forever. Never understood the decision to kill both codes in the Capital City, was very central, they came from all around, was a great support for top of South Island trotting teams, and the greyhounds came from everywhere. It was a prime location for expansion and growth as a multi sport complex. Shortsighted in the extreme, and I suspect same thing for Forbury. I also enjoyed betting at both venues in respect to harness. Less and less options kill the desire to get involved sigh.

[lamour 724]

On 8/7/2024 at 8:43 AM, Aaron The Anchor said:

I actually forget these meetings are replacing the Thursday/Friday meetings there, they are not an added extra.

Good point Aaron. I thought the whole idea of this was to increase races but it appears this isn’t happening. 

[Four more years 30]

39 minutes ago, Charlie E said:

I don't know about you guys , but its getting boring seeing the same fields in the North week after week . I rarely punt now I don't feel motivated like I used to be . If the minister did his homework and actually worked out the monthly cost for owners . They will realize why people aren't getting into Harness racing and why others are leaving 

And even worse than this, the fields themselves are even smaller than last year, and thus even less attractive as a betting product. This week last year we just had a Cambrdige meeting on Thursday, 9 races , 89 starters, 9 per race.Cambridge permanently shunted to Tuesday this year still has approximately the same number of horses per race, but Alexandra Park on Friday will deliver less per race than Cambridge, 8 per field on average. So together this year vs last the 2 North Island meetings have 13 races vs 9 from one meeting last year and only 8.4 starters on average. Cost to fund these extra races yoy will be substantailly up year on year, but will there be any betting revenue uplift to follow. This will be a recurring question as the months go by. 

By comparison Addington and Ashburton have 10 more starters in total vs last year and an average of 10 per race, getting far closer to optimal for betting returns for the industry. As is usual they will be the much more attractive betting product for punters across Australasia compared to Alexandra Park.

The proof of whether the additional cost of all these extra races in the North Island, subsidised from betting returns n South Island racing, will take time to be clear. But there is a really good argument to be made up front that if you offer more and more of a lesser product, and that product becomes worse over time because

a. (Cambridge) you offer it at a time when no one buys it or

b.(Alexandra Park) you offer it at a time when it is directly comparable to a better product available at the same price, then

1.The additonal cost (stakes subsidies and cost of people and production) of offering more and more of that same lesser product will exceed the additional revenue generated from that increased product. In economics this is the principle / law of diminishing returns, and its been that way for centuries!

2. Perhaps even more worrying, if you keep taking so much money to fund the lesser product away from the profitable better product (Crusaders country racing) that in time the better product suffers exactly the same fate that the North Island faces now, as off course punters keep drifting off into the sunset because even the best product stops being attractive as owners don't get a fair return for their investment. 

There is only so much money to go around, it isn't enough to fund stakes at top and botom end, it isn't enough to fund all the venues. HRNZ already acknowledge this project is spending money that is not going to be available to them without betting uplift in 4 more years. Let's hope they keep critically evaluating the incremental betting returns if any they get from this project relative to its costs in the months ahead, and keep telling us how it is going! If it isn't shifting the dial substantially, then shunting Cambridge to Tuesdays permanently in favour of Alexandra Park, and even more excessively subsidising Alexandra Park over and above the whole of the industry should be the first two things they modify. The numbers will tell the story.   

 

[Charlie E 668]

On 8/6/2024 at 8:35 PM, Alicia Harrison said:

Agree with most points, I think it is a good option for those low and middle grade horses, if they do it right and they get a low amount of points and the programming doesn’t continue to clash with Auckland. Essentially Redcliffe works as they win don’t get too many points and back up again maybe even twice in a week so they’re back in their grade within the month. Which is where we’ve really been struggling up here as it takes too long to drop back in grade which costs owners 2-3 months training fees etc, so financially makes more sense to flick them to Aussie. Hopefully if they do the rating points right this can occur here as it was some good competitive racing tonight for what they are, and middle of the market punters are probably more likely to bet where they think they can get one up at longer odds than on some of the short priced favs we’ve had in recent history when the ratings are over a 20 point spread. I think in the short term the concept will probably struggle in coming weeks but hopefully in the long term people might retain horses they’d sell after one win and the old grass track type horses that have disappeared from the north island since the closure of the summer circuits as there’s been no place for them. But it will be interesting to see and could certainly go either way if it’s not tinkered with and gotten right as it progresses 

Any idea Alicia how much the average training fees are now for a month ?

[lamour 724]

3 hours ago, Four more years said:

And even worse than this, the fields themselves are even smaller than last year, and thus even less attractive as a betting product

Not surprising since there is a significant decrease in stakes for very little reduction of points earned.  It wouldn’t be so bad if they were additional races on top of the normally scheduled ones but apparently this is not the case. 

[Deep Sooth 99]

The Cheap Tuesdays will do absolutely nothing to rescue harness racing in the north!

Much like the idiot who asked to have his pizza cut into 6 pieces because he didn't think that he could eat 8 pieces, hrnz seem to think that cutting the pizza (horse pool) into a different number of pieces (fields) will change the amount of pizza (horse numbers) available for consumption.

On the contrary, it will further reduce field sizes as the available pool of horses is spread more thinly - as we're already seeing - consequently driving more punters away due to a tasteless product being offered.

Dwindling horse numbers are the problem, and have been for more than a decade. Ignoring that fact for another decade, and daydreaming about increased stakemoney, and more races curing the problem, will simply oversee the closure of harness racing in the north island.

The falling breeding numbers started 20 years ago, and has gradually translated into the shortage of racing stock we have today. The core problem of breeding numbers will take at least 15-20 years to turn around, unfortunately northern harness racing doesn't have a 20 year life expectancy.

[lamour 724]

The idea of lower stakes racing should be to encourage a class of horse that doesn’t race now due to being uncompetitive, to make  up additional races.   By just shifting Thursday night’s racing to Tuesday days and decreasing stakes they will only drive people out of racing.  Why not have these races for non qualified horses?

[Aaron The Anchor 290]

How bad are the Alex Park feilds. Horrible 

[Charlie E 668]

11 hours ago, Aaron The Anchor said:

How bad are the Alex Park feilds. Horrible 

Yep not having a bet again . Sad thing is it will get worse