RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

Daveski

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Everything posted by Daveski

  1. I did notice that after the letter there was an apology for "Parliamentary intelligence". Surely that term is one of the great oxymorons of our time!
  2. Basically, you're looking for the Beyer Ratings - the guy who developed them has written a number of books on the topic. The ratings themselves have become an industry standard in the US. In simple terms, what the Beyer ratings do is first adjust for the course difference - whether it is running fast or slow. This is done by class so on any given day you can compare times by class and then add or subtract based on whether the times overall are faster or slower. Once you then have accurate class based times for a course and class, you can then more accurately compare times and adjust for any course based bias. The key is that averages by course don't take into account class. For NZ dogs, I've found a simple average by course provides a reasonable marker but I haven't yet added the adjustment for whether the course is running fast or slow.
  3. It's worth noting for the greys that while they do go UP for a win, after three fourths (or worse) in a row they come back down the grades.
  4. I must be in a contrary mood today but I suppose what worries the most is that so many posts here demonstrate the lack of willingness of some racing people to embrace change. Newspapers and printed publications are dying in every industry. But it's not just that. Punters have more information than they have every had - it's just that it's not printed. As for the race days, sports entertainment - be it racing or rugby - has take two different paths. A smaller number of "events" attract attendance - in rugby, tests largely sell out but even super rugby is struggling to attract attendance. Conversely, we've never had better access to live sport or racing. And yes Pam - a great point. BGP shows that there is a way ahead … and I bet .01% of BGP complain about the lack of printed info because they are living in the present, not the past.
  5. Criticism of the numbering system simply undermines any legitimate criticisms of the site. It's simply criticism for criticism sake - and with respect, a lack of understanding and a reluctance to accept change. I agree the old numbering system such as 201 was easy - on any given date, that would be meeting 2 race 1. However, under that system you can't bet on meeting 2 today and meeting 2 in a couple of days time. I suppose you could if the meeting date was part of the unique key but I suspect that it's not designed that way. So the new system is significant improve as it allows the TAB to offer betting on more than one TAB code at the same time. Yet even though it is an improvement, this has been a negative thread. I'm not defending the things they've got wrong but simply pointing out that even a major improvement leads to criticism because fundamentally people don't necessarily understand.
  6. There is of course a very inconvenient truth to why the status quo remains. Quite simply, RITA has no plan and certainly no implementation plan. So not only does RITA need to develop a plan - and the plan to implement it - it also needs to take care of BAU. In that light, it makes sense to keep someone like Allen to keep BAU going while they develop a plan. As others may have alluded to, I'd be surprised if he wasn't dusting off his CV so it could prove to be a way to avoid any exit package.
  7. Not just any race - there's a group one in France for 2yo over 2000m - Critérium de Saint-Cloud.
  8. It's far from optimal but the issue with the extended form looks like it's a browser compatibility issue. On your desktop, if you try a browser like Chrome it should work - I assume you're using a Microsoft browser? It also explains why it works on your phone. At one stage, the countdown timer was displaying differently for different browsers so it looks like there's more than one issue with browser compatibility.
  9. Not sure what you mean in the first sentence re logic but I think we agree that it's impossible to draw any conclusions based on the number of races so far. However, it would be interesting to see what would happen with a larger pool. As the stats tell us, box speed wins greyhound races. The first dog to the first bend has a significant advantage in pretty much all races. It would be interesting to see what criteria GRNZ is using to measure the success of the trial. As has been pointed out, i think 6 dog fields are used in the UK and Ireland and that doesn't seem to have affected punting. That said, it was noticeable with the smaller fields that you had to adjust your view of what was value etc
  10. Ok, best we take this off line I think. Can you message me your email address and i can follow up that way. Race 4 fixed too
  11. The Fixed Odds issue is now fixed :-) Thanks to NZRB staff for the assistance.
  12. That's the $64 gazillion question. Gem in particular has a top closing sectional - she had a couple of the top closing sectionals had she made the St Leger. We would need a lot more races to see if there it does make it easier for back markers but it was promising at least to see that two runners won from the back. Gem did win yesterday with a slow start but two winners from 6th would be very significant if the pattern continued at all. I should also add I'm only analysing the available data and the objective of the trial was to reduce interference which is a direct cause of injury. However, i think analysing the success of the back markers is a fair proxy for looking at the level of interference.
  13. It's often overlooked with the frustration and changes that there are some great people in NZRB doing their best … I've got some more testing to do tomorrow but we might have a solution for the fixed odds. That would be outstanding.
  14. I did some analysis on the super 6 races although quite clearly the sample size far to small to draw any valid conclusions. The sprints showed no real difference - there is an extreme advantage to the dogs that get to the first marker on the pace. One winner came from further back than second (3rd) so there was no real change. What was interesting however was the middle distance races. At present around 6% of winners are 6th or worse at the post the first time they go round yet two of the races were won by dogs that were 6th (last). Again, it's hard to know whether that is statistically significant as the sample size grows. Both runners had very strong closing sectionals so it was no surprise they won but it certainly was promising to see two dogs come from last.
  15. Sorry, missing something. What do you mean by the sliding bar? What page? Yes, the FF is a real pain. You may have noted that for a while TS couldn't display FF either but they have managed to find a fix. There has been a fundamental change to how the data is displayed so as it stands, it's not possible to get the FF. But I'm still trying to find a solution. David
  16. Sectionals for all four heats of the St Leger - see attached St Leger Sectionals - 31 Jan 2019.xlsx
  17. Yes, it's a known bug if you check the uppingyourgame.co.nz. I'm not 100% certain but it did look like there was an issue with IE - chrome was displaying correctly. But it looks like you're using Mozilla/Firebox? For a time, they actually had different displays based on browsers which is indicative of a serious issue which to be fair you would have thought they would have sorted in testing. That said, I do find it a lot quicker to put bets on … once you understand how it works. That is always the challenge of a new site is that even if it is better, people will find it "worse" because they have to relearn how to do things - the classic example of "Don't Make Me Think". My biggest concern is the lack of some quite critical data eg there's no visual display of NTD. I suspect they were forced down the "minimal viable product" path - get things working and then after launch add and enhance. It gets the site live but it does cause punters significant frustration
  18. I realise any positive comments will be ridiculed but a fair number of the bet types are significantly easier and quicker … once you understand the approach. To put a multi on: go to win/place select a fixed odd bet win or place go to another race and do the same the multi bet option appears once the second bet is placed. All ups can still only be placed on a single meeting.
  19. I've changed the column to display the tote odds but I'd much prefer fixed odds. These are no longer available via the XML and the naming convention is now not based on date, tab code and race so that makes it even harder to get the fixed odds off the new site. I haven't given up yet but it could take a little while to sort out.
  20. So what you're saying is we need some unconventional thinking? How about EVERY horse is ridden handier then they would all have better chances. BTW in the example you cite, the horse than finished second and just died on its run was last at the turn. I bet you Rumpole would love to have you representing the other side as he would never lose a case.
  21. Just be thankful Trev doesn't try and flog off his tickets on Trade Me ... they'll cost you a lot more that $40!!
  22. That does make a lot more sense. I was quoting off the Jackpot page but that must have been after week 1 only and not updated since Tuesday
  23. I'm assuming that's because there is a gallops Pick 6 at Ellerslie on Sunday (it's a $100K terminating pick 6). There is a $15K dog pick 6 at Manukau on Monday plus a $10K at Forbury Park Tuesday. The jackpot amount for the Tuesday P6 is only $4965.
  24. Agreed entirely. A punters' manifesto anyone?
  25. You seem to have been sucked into Leggy's time warp. ARC did 4.5 times the on course of MRC (ex fixed odds) and 7.5 times the on course of Otago. The off course figures clearly have less variation for obvious reasons yet their was a clear preference for AK. However, I agree that this is to be expected based on the marquee races that the ARC had. To be pedantic, the funding the ARC receives for stakes is at best for the club fiscally neutral. The minimum funding policy ensures that clubs must pass on to owners every cent received for stakes. The metric that should be tracked is not what stakes revenue is received (that must be paid out as a minimum to owners) but what added stakes or added value the club provides. The ARC's profit would not be affected at all if minimum stakes levels were raised or lowered.