RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

Swynford

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  1. Like
    Swynford reacted to Ruby in who to send my mare to   
    What's her name - people will want to look at her whole pedigree before offering suggestions.
  2. Like
    Swynford reacted to Ruby in Tavistock   
    Congrats to Cambridge Stud and I hope he is the 'real deal' but with 160 foals and 23 runners (Arion)
    I will reserve judgement for a while
  3. Like
    Swynford reacted to Irishbay in Pedigree Analysis and Yearling Sale Selection   
    Hi Swinford.  Thanks for putting yourself out there and coming up with a suggestion.  It seems there are a lot of factors to consider when planning a mating.  Your right there does seem to be a lot more options up North in terms of variety of stallions to choose from.
    We  may consider that in the future for Limoux and another we have, probably prefer the mare to go up empty and come back to foal.
  4. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Irishbay in Pedigree Analysis and Yearling Sale Selection   
    Irishbay,  
     
    Sorry I couldn't find anything hotter amongst the stallions in the South Island that reinforced the bloodlines in your mare in the way I like to do it.  I hope you got the message on the structure of the pedigree.
     
    I have looked at the pedigrees of both Might And Power and Octagonal (by the same sire ) many years ago and believe that they have two distinct things in common. 
    Both descend in direct female line to Internalional bloodlines or families that have produced outstanding sires in the past.
      Both have duplications on the male line of the first dam.  
    I hope you can find some stallion in the future that fits that pattern. I firmly believe that looking into her pedigree rather than looking at stallion stats will be your quickest root to success.

  5. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Irishbay in Pedigree Analysis and Yearling Sale Selection   
    Got a couple of questions for Berri, Classic One, and Dopy
     
        If we shouldn't breed from horses that don't perform, and are at the bottom of the heap on the race track or "didn't get the magic gene "  how come mares like Tiona, My Trica,(unraced ) and Benediction have become some of the most outstanding producing mares in New Zealand, Add to that list also Eight Carat who was a world class producer.  Would you have culled these mares ?. 
     
    Or does these genetic theories only apply to the male of the species. ?
  6. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Dopey in Pedigree Patterns   
    Yes I read the article with interest. Pedigree below. Appreciate the grey color coming from Petite Etoile but to me the most powerful part of the pedigree more along the lines of Amy Bennetts article in the same magazine about females, The mares are so important and their bottom line even more so. Both O'Reilly, and more importantly Freequence (although deep,) descend in direct female line to the family that produced  Mr Prospector and Le Fabuleux.  
     
    Matching mares that have Northern Dancer on the male line of the 1st and 2nd dam (as with Freequence) is a great match for both Machiavellian and Halo in No Excuse Needed's sire line

  7. Like
    Swynford reacted to Nasrullah in Stallion parades - who are you sending mares to?   
    Rip Van Winkle!
     
    Will stick my neck out and say he will do a High Chap, meaning be that successful over the next season or two that next year or year after he will be standing in Australia at say 3 times his current fee.
     
    Cape Blanco good race horse is very different to Rip Van Winkle.Cape Blanco is a different type of Galizzz and his female line and broodmare sire Presidium doesn't do it for me. I mean 2 stakes winners from 253 runners isn't great.
     
    Might cop some flak but I value broodmare sires as hugely important.
  8. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from rosie one in Pedigree Patterns   
    I meet a lot of stallion owners or people who are interested in the stallions wellfare only.  Were the chegue book mentality exists. They are happy to take any mare for any reason. 
     
    My chosen roll in the business is to help brood-mare owners get the best results and breed a top horse.
  9. Like
    Swynford reacted to Dopey in Pedigree Patterns   
    Your observation can be duplicated using per incanto with oreilly mares also. I have done so.
    Doubles up on try my best in the same pattern .
  10. Like
    Swynford reacted to Breeder in Pedigree Patterns   
    Berri
     
     To be fair to Swynford he is consistent with his theory --bottom line of the stallion matching the top line of the broodmare sire (ie tracing back to a common mare. In this case Best in Show)
     
     BTW. I know in your challenge a few months ago it was based on pedigree and you are a "type" fan so how about you put up your top three from last years yearling sales based on your criteria.
  11. Like
    Swynford reacted to Tapu in Indy King first winner   
    Thankyou Henri and Beri for photo's, now just have to figure how to get them off posts and on to my IPhoto file.
    Nasrullah, don't spoil this site with sarcasm - everyone has an opinion and has to be respected for that, not forced into believing someone else's ideas.  Henri is right to ask what credentials you have bred to back up yours.  Most people on this site are fairly open and free with their interesting posts.  A few years ago it was almost a war on the breeding posts - very unpleasant.  Keep it light and informative without shafting those game enough to offer an interesting post.
  12. Like
    Swynford reacted to Abernant in Indy King first winner   
    I just had a look at Indy Kings progeny results he has had,106 winners and 45 of them have won  1001-1200m races and out of the 305 wins 112 of them are 1001-1200m races surely that seems to say he leaves sprinters.
    As a breeder with one mare i like both point of view. from Berri, and Swynford but if the were no one doing (the breeding lottery ticket) there would be probably be only a dozen stallions at most in New Zealand used by commercial studs.
    Trying to find a breeding nick keeps us trying to dream we can breed a champion.
    Maybe we should give up breeding and just buy from the sales, that sounds the cheapest and easy way to go?.
  13. Like
    Swynford reacted to Henri Jooste in Indy King first winner   
    Berri, Swynford has put forward paper mating, it does not as yet exist. 
     
    As to be expected Berri you have done your homework, firstly you are correct on the purchase price, however the observations  around INDY KING’S soundness and the racing maturity of his dam Queena need some context.  INDY KING was injured pulling up after a morning gallop after stepping in a hole and tore a tendon. He had shown genuine ability in work against the very best of Frank Stronachs horses, enough to be given a berth at Adena Springs Florida. Stronach has at any one time at least half a dozen horses that are bred in the purple that can be pressed into stallion service so the decision to stand the unraced INDY KING was not a random decision.  Retired to Adena Springs around the same time was Olmodaver a graded stakes winning son of A.P. Indy.
     
    Queena the dam of INDY KING was a late starter, she raced only at 4 and 5 years, why I do not know, I think that it is a long bow to assume that it was because she was a slow maturing type. As one would expect of a daughter of Mr Prospector she showed speed from the outset and had the class to race against and beat the best of her sex at a mile. Queena  won 10 races from 6f through to 9 furlongs (average winning distance 7.05 furlongs) . She had a busy season at 4 years contesting  nine races and won 5 (four in succession) including the GR2 First Flight Handicap over 7 furlongs. As a five year old she raced eight times winning five in succession including the GR1 Ballerina Stakes (7 f),GR1 Maskette Stakes (8f) and GR1 Ruffian Stakes (8 ½  furlongs ). These efforts earned Queena an Eclipse Award and she was the top rated older mare in the USA in 1990.
     
    La Reina the full sister to INDY KING did race at 2 years , four times in fact. On her debut over 6 furlongs she ran second, she then won her next start over 7 furlongs by 5 lengths before winning  the GR3 Tempted Stakes over a mile. Three weeks later La Reina ran second in the GR2 Demoiselle Stakes over 1700m. Half brother Brahms raced in Ireland as a 2 year old where he won over 6f on his second start and then ran second to Giant’s Causeway in the E.B.F. Futurity Stakes GR3 over 7f and second in the GR1 Dewhurst Stakes(7f) behind Distant Music at Newmarket.
     
    Grandam Too Chic, by champion 2 year old Blushing Groom, only raced at 3 years winning 4 races from 8 starts, mainly over a mile culminating in the GR1 Maskette Stakes at her final race day appearance.  Too Chic equalled the course record at Belmont over 8 ½ furlongs. Too Chic was rated the 5th best filly of her generation (17000 filly foal crop). Too Chic also bred Chic Shirine ,GR1 Ashland Stakes 8 ½ furlongs , a full sister to Queena .
     
    Getting back to Queena  a late start should not be confused with slow maturity and dourness, Queena and all her immediate relatives displayed racing ability of the highest class over 7 furlongs and a mile capable of winning at 2 years and training on. 
     
    More to follow........  
  14. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Irishbay in PAKISTAN II (GB) Ch. H. 1958   
    I learnt a lot from a man years ago and he didn't win the Caulfied Cup and I don't think he was Sobar either,
    He said "We all learn from each other"  and I think Race Cafe is a great place to do that.
    Hope you breed a good horse Irisbay. So many are leaving an industry that can be so much fun
  15. Like
    Swynford reacted to hummels in Berri/Swynford and others   
    Bullbars looks exciting, hard not to like his dam line, racetrack performance, fee and looks.

    Surely Rip Van Winkle looks a decent go as a sprinter/miler??
  16. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from hummels in Indy King first winner   
    Simply speaking Berri you are ignoring the line breeding patterns that you know very little about. And to my mind they will have a huge imput into the mating. 
     
    Told you about my position on the challenge. read back if you are confused. 
     
    For some one who has won a Melbourne Cup and a Great Northern Steeplechase (the ultimate to me in staying races,).
    whats your problem with stayers, you appear ungrateful for your ultimate thrill.
  17. Like
    Swynford reacted to hummels in Indy King first winner   
    Its easier to say the mare won't than it will, so I wouldn't be worried about others assertions. Nice family on the female side.
  18. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Naki in Indy King first winner   
    I really really like it 
  19. Like
    Swynford reacted to Lloyd Vivian in Pedigree Analysis and Yearling Sale Selection   
    I really like Sufficient, so in my book, you're on the right track for a start!!
  20. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Irishbay in Pedigree Analysis and Yearling Sale Selection   
    my breeding venture at the moment. I chose what I thought is the best blood in the industry and what I think is the best way to breed back to it. And the most economical way to do that. We purchased this mare for $400. He is a rising two year old, has some minor problems ,but we all waiting in anticipation.
    pedigree below.  What do you think ?

  21. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Ashoka in Pedigree Analysis and Yearling Sale Selection   
    Sorry I didn't join your challenge. To do the job properly I would have liked at least a month to both enter the data and then sort through it all and come up with my selections. And even then maybe sleep on these decisions for a week or so.
    Then it would be off to the sale with someone who knows what to look for in a good horse.
     
    I spent a fortune decades ago creating very specialized software. I thought I was going to be the next Bill Gates, or Steve Jobs. However it didn't happen for various reasons. I lost a fortune, including a wife and kids who got sick of someone starring at a screen all day. I walked away from the industry and this software lived mostly in a card board box in the closet for ten or so years.
     
    I can thank two people for encouraging me back into it, Richard Wood and Mick Ormond. These are the only people still using my software today other than myself.
     
    Some of the successes to date from the trio
     
    I have selected a A.J.C Derby winner.... Ebony Grosve........ from the yearling sales
    Mick has bred an A.JC Derby winner.... Roman Emperor......from a very small band of broodmares
    Richard had the red hot favourite for the A.JC Derby......... Jimmy Choux from a very small band of brood mares. 
     
    and there is a lot more.
     
    In itself quite a remarkable achievement from people who were once small players.
     
    We all dream of breeding a champion and it DOESN'T happen every time, But just like playing cards,when you stack the deck, sometimes we get it right and we hit the JACKPOT.
  22. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Gruff in Pedigree Analysis and Yearling Sale Selection   
    Sorry I didn't join your challenge. To do the job properly I would have liked at least a month to both enter the data and then sort through it all and come up with my selections. And even then maybe sleep on these decisions for a week or so.
    Then it would be off to the sale with someone who knows what to look for in a good horse.
     
    I spent a fortune decades ago creating very specialized software. I thought I was going to be the next Bill Gates, or Steve Jobs. However it didn't happen for various reasons. I lost a fortune, including a wife and kids who got sick of someone starring at a screen all day. I walked away from the industry and this software lived mostly in a card board box in the closet for ten or so years.
     
    I can thank two people for encouraging me back into it, Richard Wood and Mick Ormond. These are the only people still using my software today other than myself.
     
    Some of the successes to date from the trio
     
    I have selected a A.J.C Derby winner.... Ebony Grosve........ from the yearling sales
    Mick has bred an A.JC Derby winner.... Roman Emperor......from a very small band of broodmares
    Richard had the red hot favourite for the A.JC Derby......... Jimmy Choux from a very small band of brood mares. 
     
    and there is a lot more.
     
    In itself quite a remarkable achievement from people who were once small players.
     
    We all dream of breeding a champion and it DOESN'T happen every time, But just like playing cards,when you stack the deck, sometimes we get it right and we hit the JACKPOT.
  23. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Condor in PAKISTAN II (GB) Ch. H. 1958   
    Thanks Condor.  One good horse is all it takes
  24. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Breeder in Pedigree Analysis and Yearling Sale Selection   
    posted from Berri    (   "So all I have asked for is that you nominate 10 yearlings from the select yearling sales that pass the mustard using your technology. Post the lot numbers, give us the pedigrees and why and we'll follow them and make a party out of it. That way we'll all know. Must work both ways....1 selecting mares and stallions and the other identifying others who have done is correctly.....go on....give it a go".  )     My answer to "your challenge" as above is simple, I have been there, done that and don't need to prove to my self that my methods are good.  When selecting yearlings from a sale the most important factor is to inspect the horse and its too late for that. I would never buy or recommend some one else buy a horse just because it looked good on my screen.  However combining the two can give you a little advantage over the opposition.     One of the only times I have been asked to search yearling sales using my technology and skill was many years ago now but could be termed a successful one.  I selected what I thought where the best pedigrees of different stallions. A small number of horses where purchased and there where failures of course.  But I had identified a colt out of Dusky Rosa as the best yearling in the sale of some 40 odd by the stallion Grosvenor.  As well as having a nice pedigree he was a very nice looking horse and good judges, (from memory Paul Willetts)  had him short listed. These guys take a look at things like size, temperament, health, athleticism and most of all the ability to stand training etc.   The horse was purchased and went onto win the Group One Australian Derby, L.K.S MacKinnon Stakes and around $1.5 million in prize money.  The reasons I identified him was because of where the duplications occurred in his pedigree.  Right on the male line of Dusky Rosa was Persian Gulf, who was by Bahram. Bahram appears as the brood-mare sire of Summertime. Adding to the mix Persian Gulf was out of Double Life and Summertime's sire Precipitation was out of Double Life. So to me these two horses, Summertime and Persian Gulf, are very genetically similar, of the highest quality,and right in the spot where big fish are caught. Like This Quote MultiQuote    
  25. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Breeder in PAKISTAN II (GB) Ch. H. 1958   
    I learnt a lot from a man years ago and he didn't win the Caulfied Cup and I don't think he was Sobar either,
    He said "We all learn from each other"  and I think Race Cafe is a great place to do that.
    Hope you breed a good horse Irisbay. So many are leaving an industry that can be so much fun