RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

Swynford

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  1. Like
    Swynford reacted to Dopey in Per Incanto & Zacinto   
    I guess the answer to will Saracino will measure up is yes, and we'll see the horse in even better races going forward... 
  2. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from elbow in Inbreeding to Danehill   
    pedigree analysis is way deeper than simply inbreeding to a particular horse,  WAY DEEPER.   Most people and computer pedigree systems will look at the ancestry of a horse and identify duplications in the family tree in certain generations. eg. inbred to Danehill    4 x 3 or  3 x 5 etc. and I agree when duplicating Danehill in this way these figures don't stack up.
    The yearling below is in bred to Danehill through two sons in the 3rd generation,  By it self this pattern dosen't interest me at all. 
     

  3. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from optical in Sacred Elixir   
    Mattski  
    looking at the stats below when Zabeel was crossed with the highest quality mares available. eg those by Danehill, he produced 3 Group One winners from 129. 1 in 40   Look deeper and we can see one of those mares produced two of them so 1 from the other 128 .  Way below his own average of 1 in 30 odd.  
    Centaine, another champion brood-mare sire ...no Group One winners from nearly 40 runners   
    Yet when crossed with Vice Regal mares every 8th runner was a Group  One winner.  why was that ...?  that's exceptional.. sorry extraordinary,   imagine going to Karaka and in every 8th box was a Group One winner. People like David Ellis spend 4-5 million every year on the best looking specimens. If it was looks    What is his strike rate ?  nothing like 1 in 8 
    If this was an AIR CRASH INVESTIGATION  we would all look at the Zabeel /Vice Regal stats ,   where there is smoke there is fire.  Not every one will agree, but in my analysis, if you are looking for Group One results, line breeding out performs all other avenues of pursuit at least five times.

  4. Like
    Swynford reacted to Catalano in The Bold One   
    You are correct, she's built like a bull, all shoulder and a behind like Serena Williams. But she's not big.
  5. Like
    Swynford reacted to Huey in Per Incanto & Zacinto   
    Or it illustrates a lot of breeders have more money than sense and love hype, promotion and glossy pictures in choosing a potential consort for their mares.
  6. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Dopey in Frankel colt   
    Very unique pedigree and will follow his career with interest.  Inbred to Danehill that no one is wanting to do and a wonderful mirror image of duplications through Sadler's Wells,  a staying sire.     The patterns appear on both sides of this colts sire and dam.   
     

  7. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Dopey in Inbreeding to Danehill   
    I really like this horses pedigree. That's how I would in breed to Danehill. It's not just him, its the whole pedigree that counts. I always start with the male line of the 1st dam when looking at pedigrees.  And ask  "has this been duplicated in the stallion and if so where.?
    And then look at the second dam and ask the same question.
     
     
     

  8. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from MiDeBo Racing in Sacred Elixir   
    Agree totally here and with Insider too... a sire produces a Group One winner, ( or in Tavistock's case four from over 100 mares) and the services fee goes through the roof.
     Why ?,  does the semen suddenly cost more to produce,  Who wins, NOT the brood-mare owner who to my mind is the biggest part of it all.    
  9. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Dopey in Sacred Elixir   
    Love the pedigree of this horse, twice American Horse of the Year, winner of 23 of 31 starts and $US 7.7 MILLION

    A great example of the post above
  10. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Dopey in Sacred Elixir   
    Pedigree of Pour Moi's other stakes winner  Only Mine.    (Northern Hemisphere)
    When spending large amounts of money on service fees, to get the biggest bang for your buck, (or to bring the stallion to his knees , or as some would say.... to make the till ring )  I would be looking closely at what is on the male line of your mare, not just the first dam but also the subsequent dams,  And then look at how that fits with the stallion.  

  11. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from bazach in Sacred Elixir   
    Mattski  
    looking at the stats below when Zabeel was crossed with the highest quality mares available. eg those by Danehill, he produced 3 Group One winners from 129. 1 in 40   Look deeper and we can see one of those mares produced two of them so 1 from the other 128 .  Way below his own average of 1 in 30 odd.  
    Centaine, another champion brood-mare sire ...no Group One winners from nearly 40 runners   
    Yet when crossed with Vice Regal mares every 8th runner was a Group  One winner.  why was that ...?  that's exceptional.. sorry extraordinary,   imagine going to Karaka and in every 8th box was a Group One winner. People like David Ellis spend 4-5 million every year on the best looking specimens. If it was looks    What is his strike rate ?  nothing like 1 in 8 
    If this was an AIR CRASH INVESTIGATION  we would all look at the Zabeel /Vice Regal stats ,   where there is smoke there is fire.  Not every one will agree, but in my analysis, if you are looking for Group One results, line breeding out performs all other avenues of pursuit at least five times.

  12. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from bazach in Sacred Elixir   
    Agree totally here and with Insider too... a sire produces a Group One winner, ( or in Tavistock's case four from over 100 mares) and the services fee goes through the roof.
     Why ?,  does the semen suddenly cost more to produce,  Who wins, NOT the brood-mare owner who to my mind is the biggest part of it all.    
  13. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Insider in Sacred Elixir   
    Agree totally here and with Insider too... a sire produces a Group One winner, ( or in Tavistock's case four from over 100 mares) and the services fee goes through the roof.
     Why ?,  does the semen suddenly cost more to produce,  Who wins, NOT the brood-mare owner who to my mind is the biggest part of it all.    
  14. Like
    Swynford reacted to Dopey in Sacred Elixir   
    If it does, just don't go to him. I want to but not at any price.
  15. Like
    Swynford reacted to Insider in Sacred Elixir   
    Agree, a great opportunity to keep breeding to the type of stallion that we are known for or put another way, to breed the the type of horse that we do best.  
    I just hope that the fee is competitive and doesn't get hiked up to much if Sacred Elixer wins tomorrow!
     
  16. Like
    Swynford reacted to Ohokaman in Sacred Elixir   
    What a win today...that's about as arrogant as it gets.....Derby type next year for sure.
  17. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from MPERKINS in Line Breeding Seminar   
    For anyone wishing to learn more about line breeding or studying pedigrees,  eg (Berri)  there is a free Seminar at the Matamata Club on Wednesday night at 7.00 pm. Big Screen.
    If you can't make I expect there will be more around the country in the close future.
  18. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Harrykane in Line Breeding Seminar   
    For anyone wishing to learn more about line breeding or studying pedigrees,  eg (Berri)  there is a free Seminar at the Matamata Club on Wednesday night at 7.00 pm. Big Screen.
    If you can't make I expect there will be more around the country in the close future.
  19. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Midget in Line Breeding Seminar   
    Thanks for the encouragement
  20. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Midget in Line Breeding Seminar   
    For anyone wishing to learn more about line breeding or studying pedigrees,  eg (Berri)  there is a free Seminar at the Matamata Club on Wednesday night at 7.00 pm. Big Screen.
    If you can't make I expect there will be more around the country in the close future.
  21. Like
    Swynford reacted to rosie one in Line Breeding Seminar   
    I would like to go if you are ever in the CD area.
  22. Like
    Swynford reacted to barryb in Line Breeding Seminar   
    Yes I would love to come along, but just cant be bothered driving over to Matamata on a cold winters night unfortunately.
  23. Like
    Swynford reacted to Dopey in Line Breeding Seminar   
    Good luck, I hope you get a few along but if you get one or two very interested breeders it will be just as good.
  24. Like
    Swynford reacted to Dibbles in 2016 Stud Fees   
    There are numerous South Island breeders who send their mares up to the North Island every season to support the North Island stallions so I am sure if they wanted their mares to stay closer to home they would. Also on the other hand there is nothing stopping North Island breeders sending mares to the South Island (not the end of the world) and the agistment costs would be a lot more reasonable!!
  25. Like
    Swynford got a reaction from Swoopa in Frankel colt