RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.
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Swynford reacted to Nasrullah in Pedigree Analysis and Yearling Sale Selection
That was impressive Swynford. Well done.
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Swynford reacted to Nasrullah in Future Stallion For Waikato Stud
Fair point about those stallions Bruce but I just wanted to touch on upon a generalization.
The New Zealand broodmare band is much broader in distance than it likely had say 30 years ago.
Look at what speed sprinter/ miler sires has been brought in to NZ over the last 30 years and the effect it has had on the broodmare band.
My point is that around 30 years ago we had around 5 to 8 NZ based stallions in top 20 of the Australian sires Premiership. Now we have none! Has the move to sped shot NZ in the foot?
Australia now purchases about $50m dollars a year on stayers from Europe. That never happened 30 years ago.
We will never beat the Aussies at the juvenile and Sprint level but at the 2000m to 2400m we do very well.
And if you check the female lines of Jon Snow and Gingernuts you see that they are mainly dominant classic families.
Jon Snow from the Soliloquy family. Plenty of classic performers from the family, recently Oaks winner Savaria. Solveig won the NZ Oaks
Gingernuts out of a Generous mare that goes back to Eulogy our NZ Hall of Fame mare.
However nothing wrong with injecting turn of foot when a female family may need it!
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Swynford reacted to jeepers in Baker & Forsman
Congratulations they are the best,should be"Trainers of the year "by a street and should have been last season.
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Swynford got a reaction from Huey in Pedigree Analysis and Yearling Sale Selection
Now named Grand Rio wins his maiden at Rotorua midweek in the mud by 15 lenghths
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Swynford reacted to Midget in Baker & Forsman
Be remiss not to give these two a nod today, what a year, and every year for that matter, always with different horses.
They've carried the Kiwi flag single handedly and that deserves a hearty well done.
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Swynford got a reaction from Pegs Pride in ECHOES OF HEAVEN
WOW four from four congrats again.... Heather a beautiful looking horse too.
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Swynford reacted to psyc in Breeding Fees
In case nobody has noticed the studs only serve two types of clients. 1. Themselves and 2. (As someone pointed out) those spending other peoples money. I too have sent four mares for foaling and mating and was left with three empty mares and pregnancy from a December mating. I have also noticed that studs (larger NZ ones) repeatedly stick to stallions with sire lines that suit their own broodmares increasing their own success rates. There's a hint, you should be looking to mates mares to studs that have similar maternal lines. Having said that there a plenty of cheaper alternatives. I for one have given up wasting money on mating, vets and boxing/grazing and instead opted to buy young stock already on the ground and dispense with all the associated costs. If I did not own my own piece of dirt and do my own breaking I simply could not afford it. If it was not for my love of the horses and a limited number of people in the industry (and there are some good bastards) I would not be bothered.
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Swynford got a reaction from globederby12 in A challenge to the breeding theorists
My theory Berri ...is absolutely RIGHT ON THE BUTTON when looking at the pedigree of Winx
And my system is probably one of the only of its kind in the world that shows it clearly.
Most people when searching for answers on how to obtain a Group One winner or in this case a 'champion' look to the stallion. (and your posts have always reminded me that you are like minded) or they buy the most beautiful looking horse from the sales.
I love Street Cry, and I love a beautiful looking horse, but the truth is Street Cry only produced a Group One winner in every 70 runners.
My theory has always been 'the mares, and the male lines of the mares' ARE THE KEY and with 'line breeding' one can increase your chances of success as much as ten times.
So when I look at Winx's pedigree, ( and as I have always tried to promote on this site) whether looking to buy a horse or planning thoroughbred matings, I look at the top line of her dam, in this case Vegas Showgirls' male line. Simple research that takes less than minutes to do shows me that mares from this male line (that of Success Express) are responsible for 5 Cox Plate victories in the last 12 years. This is a staggering number as mares from this male line represent less than .001% of the brood-mare population.
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Swynford got a reaction from Breeder in Vadamos to stand at Rich Hill
Group One Prix Du Moulin de Longchamp winner Vadamos,by Monsun to stand at Rich Hill Stud
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Swynford got a reaction from Black Kirrama in A challenge to the breeding theorists
My theory Berri ...is absolutely RIGHT ON THE BUTTON when looking at the pedigree of Winx
And my system is probably one of the only of its kind in the world that shows it clearly.
Most people when searching for answers on how to obtain a Group One winner or in this case a 'champion' look to the stallion. (and your posts have always reminded me that you are like minded) or they buy the most beautiful looking horse from the sales.
I love Street Cry, and I love a beautiful looking horse, but the truth is Street Cry only produced a Group One winner in every 70 runners.
My theory has always been 'the mares, and the male lines of the mares' ARE THE KEY and with 'line breeding' one can increase your chances of success as much as ten times.
So when I look at Winx's pedigree, ( and as I have always tried to promote on this site) whether looking to buy a horse or planning thoroughbred matings, I look at the top line of her dam, in this case Vegas Showgirls' male line. Simple research that takes less than minutes to do shows me that mares from this male line (that of Success Express) are responsible for 5 Cox Plate victories in the last 12 years. This is a staggering number as mares from this male line represent less than .001% of the brood-mare population.
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Swynford got a reaction from bazach in Vadamos to stand at Rich Hill
Group One Prix Du Moulin de Longchamp winner Vadamos,by Monsun to stand at Rich Hill Stud
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Swynford got a reaction from Ruby in Vadamos to stand at Rich Hill
Group One Prix Du Moulin de Longchamp winner Vadamos,by Monsun to stand at Rich Hill Stud
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Swynford got a reaction from Huey in Vadamos to stand at Rich Hill
Group One Prix Du Moulin de Longchamp winner Vadamos,by Monsun to stand at Rich Hill Stud
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Swynford got a reaction from Nasrullah in A challenge to the breeding theorists
'My theory' is again RIGHT ON THE BUTTON for the other CHAMPION of the turf sired by Street Cry.
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Swynford got a reaction from Nasrullah in A challenge to the breeding theorists
After looking at the 1st dam I then look at the 2nd and subsequent dams. Particularly at the male lines of these mares.
This is where my system probably leads the world in understanding pedigrees, It shows that Northern Dancer has been duplicated in the stallion Street Cry through "his cousins' Machiavellian and his brood-mare sire Halo.
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Swynford reacted to Breeder in A challenge to the breeding theorists
Berri
You know as well as anyone that there is no "silver bullet" in selecting horses whether it is based on a pedigree or on type. If there was, then Coolmore, Darley and everyone else would be onto it. Most people who look at pedigrees have their own ideas ( or share with others) on what they think are important and similarly those who look at types and temperament have their ideas. The fact that Winx did not sell for millions as a yearling shows that she didn't fill the criteria of those with deep pockets ( and presumably those with the best advice money can buy).
Those who look at pedigrees are just trying improve the odds of selecting a good horse in exactly the same way those who look for a particular type of horse . I think Swynford , for example, has said a few times he would always look at the horses he has selected "off paper" with the help of an experienced horseman. Similarly I doubt anyone would buy a horse of any value just on type and not at least look at the page in the catalogue.
It would be very boring if we all agreed with each other on the issue.
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Swynford got a reaction from Dopey in Inbreeding to Danehill
This is possibly a much better way to tap into Danehill blood, using mares that come from the male line of His Majesty.
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Swynford reacted to Huey in Exceed and Excel
I'd go as far to say a phenomenal stallion 126 stakes winners and rising and nearly 70% wnr/rnrs , producing what the market wants every year early maturing 2/3yo types.
I've never understood why a son of his hasn't found its way to NZ to stand at stud? Just too costly for an NZ stud to acquire perhaps?