Swynford
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Posts posted by Swynford
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First Stakes winner for Deep Field. No real surprise really.
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On 2/27/2019 at 1:56 PM, Nasrullah said:
A question for Swynford.
While I understand what you are showing on your identified cross I have a question for you.
You are showing us pedigree patterns that have produced a good horse.
But that does not mean that the same pattern has not produced many slow horses!
Can you give us the statistics of the patterns you are identifying?
For example while Truenicks is very coarse (in that it ignores the female line of the stallion and the female line of the mare, and only compares the stallions sireline over broodmare sireline), it still gives the statistics of the cross.
The stallion Needs Further only has two runners that carry the pattern, Mystic Journey who is now a Group One winner of just over $1.million and Fiveandfurther winner of his last two starts and around $22,000 so far no slow horses.
I think we all understand that any breeding theory will never work all the time, (approx half of Zabeel,s progeny never won a race ) but when they do work a horse of the highest calibre can be the out come. These are the sorts of horses that promote a stallion.
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On 2/28/2019 at 3:18 PM, Nasrullah said:
Also prefer modern day results as the Zabeel over Vice regal mares was a long time ago.
By studying the past hopefully we can predict the future
Here is a link to an interview with Sir Patrick Hogan from Racing.com where he talks about pedigree analysis and bloodlines
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=sir+patrick+hogon+talking+about+sir+tristram
This same pattern that I have been referring to was present in Zabeels sire Sir Tristram.
And in Sir Tristram's sire Sir Ivor
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I think the first question when it comes to statistics that hasn't been answered in this thread is " should brood-mare owners judge a stallion on its barn storming finish.?'
Although my research was over a year ago and without mentioning any names it revealed to me that around 80% of horses (from those high priced stallions) didn't have enough finish in them to earn enough prize money to recoup the stallions current service fee. If you were to add training costs the ratio was more like 90/10..... or for every 1 good horse there were 9 slow ones.
So I don't believe that just because a stallion has a barn storming finish it is going to throw this into your foal.
My reference to the Dubai /Singspiel cross (nick) which has produced 38% Stakes winners to runners was not something that I was recommending for your budget, it was merely to point out what is possible in this industry and that the pattern that I have been posting, "reinforcing a stallions female line', is present in this cross.
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I'm sure you will find what you are looking for at Arion
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Full brother to the highest priced yearling sold at Auction in the world 2019
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Possible the best "nick" in the world at the moment Dubawi over Singsiel mares.
From 26 runners ...3 Group One winners,...... 8 Group winners....10 Stakes winners or 38% Stakes winners to runners.
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This mare produced 2 Group One winners to Zabeel from 5 runners
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Zabeel's best performance for producing Group One winners came when he served Vice Regal mares.
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Redoute's covered 1 El Gran Senor mare for 1 Group One winner.
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Redoutes has covered 2 Iglesia mares
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Redoute's Choice highest production of Group One winners has come when he covered Last Tycoon mares 3 from 36 runners
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Smart trial winner by Rubick at Canterbury this morning.
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Mares from the 'Grey Sovereign male line' is a pattern that appears regularly in very smart horses by stallions that carry the blood of Easy Date (and Snippets ) . Can be seen in the progeny of stallions like Pins, El Hermando (both deceased) Not a Single Doubt and Snitzel.
Many of these latter two's highest priced yearlings are out of mares that have Grey Sovereign lower in their pedigrees.
Smart winner Randwick mid week
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Runner up yesterday in the G1 Futurity Stakes and winner of nearly $1.9 Million
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Grey Sovereign is a wonderful sire to line breed to, my preference is to see it "on the male line of the mare" will be mostly lower in pedigrees today.
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Smart horse this, winner of 7 from 13 including Group Three Mannerism Stakes today at Caulfield.
Pedigree not hard to copy and affordable.
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Impressive performance, impressive pedigree.
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And I applaud any stud that does heaps of research trying to find the right stallion that suits both their own and outside mares. Choosing a stallion is a major decision for all of us. However I don't believe searching for an out cross is the perfect answer. (from memory Animal Kingdom was going to do this. ) Finding that stallion that "clicks" with Danehill mares would be my ultimate goal.
The connection between Real Impact and Danehill mares below.
Jimmy Choux
in Thoroughbred Breeding
Posted
Plus Couxting the Mob at Cranbourne last Friday night