RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

Swynford

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Everything posted by Swynford

  1. Bruce.. couple of things to consider have you considered getting in family or friends on your breeding venture. I know there are down sides but many who have succeeded today started out that way. If the mainland is limited a bit on stallions, rather than trying to find the perfect stallion for your mare why not do it the other way round. If you have a stallion that you really like and you are breeding to race then look for the perfect mare. Commercial appeal is not a factor here so they probably will be a dime a dozen. (Jimmy Choux was breed a little along these lines) Its a bit like playing cards, we all stick to the what we have in our hand and try to make the best of it but there are under utilized mares out there. Is there a stallion that you are really set on in your area.?
  2. Close inbreeding here and a beautiful mirror image, but powerful female family influences.
  3. Irishbay. Encharm/ Danzighill. good to see you have put some thought into the mating and yes you have come up with a mirror image, Just a little worried about a couple of things, The male line of the first dam hasn't really been duplicated in any way ( to me a bit like leaving the front door wide open). Secondly the duplications are very close and if there was a female line in there eg (Kaoru Stars sister or cousin) I would perhaps jump at it but a little unsure with this one. Did see a little connection with Pakistain though. The horse Alibhai, brood-mare sire to His Majesty is out of Pakistain's third dam Teresina. Might balance the mating and be just what you looking for.
  4. Thanks Condor. One good horse is all it takes
  5. posted from Berri ( "So all I have asked for is that you nominate 10 yearlings from the select yearling sales that pass the mustard using your technology. Post the lot numbers, give us the pedigrees and why and we'll follow them and make a party out of it. That way we'll all know. Must work both ways....1 selecting mares and stallions and the other identifying others who have done is correctly.....go on....give it a go". ) My answer to "your challenge" as above is simple, I have been there, done that and don't need to prove to my self that my methods are good. When selecting yearlings from a sale the most important factor is to inspect the horse and its too late for that. I would never buy or recommend some one else buy a horse just because it looked good on my screen. However combining the two can give you a little advantage over the opposition. One of the only times I have been asked to search yearling sales using my technology and skill was many years ago now but could be termed a successful one. I selected what I thought where the best pedigrees of different stallions. A small number of horses where purchased and there where failures of course. But I had identified a colt out of Dusky Rosa as the best yearling in the sale of some 40 odd by the stallion Grosvenor. As well as having a nice pedigree he was a very nice looking horse and good judges, (from memory Paul Willetts) had him short listed. These guys take a look at things like size, temperament, health, athleticism and most of all the ability to stand training etc. The horse was purchased and went onto win the Group One Australian Derby, L.K.S MacKinnon Stakes and around $1.5 million in prize money. The reasons I identified him was because of where the duplications occurred in his pedigree. Right on the male line of Dusky Rosa was Persian Gulf, who was by Bahram. Bahram appears as the brood-mare sire of Summertime. Adding to the mix Persian Gulf was out of Double Life and Summertime's sire Precipitation was out of Double Life. So to me these two horses, Summertime and Persian Gulf, are very genetically similar, of the highest quality,and right in the spot where big fish are caught. Like This Quote MultiQuote
  6. I learnt a lot from a man years ago and he didn't win the Caulfied Cup and I don't think he was Sobar either, He said "We all learn from each other" and I think Race Cafe is a great place to do that. Hope you breed a good horse Irisbay. So many are leaving an industry that can be so much fun
  7. And just like O'Reilly and his Caulfield Cup winner I think most stallions have a weak spot and that is inbreeding to the broodmare sires in their female line. I think this horse won a Caulfield Cup too. What do we have to loose from giving it a try.
  8. Another beautiful pedigree. A mirror image using female families, No sex balancing here
  9. Done this challenge before years ago, (I think it was with Hoof Beats magazine and Susan Archer,) A number of pedigree analysists where asked to choose five horses from the sales. I was given about a week to do my research. I predicted then 20 % strike rate of stakes winners and I delivered. Takes at least a months work to do what you ask. And for what reason. Just to please you. Please show me 20 pedigrees that are similar as the one below, a mirror image using the male lines of the mare and broodmare sires in the stallion.
  10. Looking at other good horses by Sobig, carrying similar patterns. Power of the female families here.
  11. Thanks for your opinion Henri, sorry can't agree with shotgun. Thought my analysis was very defined. The real issue here is Irishbay's desire to understand line breeding more in depth, and find a mate for his mare. I have given him two insights into methods that have worked. Most stallions are vulnerable when duplicating the broodmare sires in their female line. The Mirror method Looking at the pedigree of HARP a stand out in your mares pedigree my methods are right on track
  12. The proof is in the pudding, Only three breeders using this technology at the moment, all small operations with very limited amount of mares. They have paid me for much of their information. Results so far TWO Australian Derby's, (one from a Yearling Sale selection) the other home breed, and a New Zealand Horses of the Year. Bred from an unfashionable mare. All told over $6 million in prize money. Group One placings include Caulfield Cup, Auckland Cup and Cox Plate. This is a horse forum so look a gift horse in the mouth if you wish. I respect your opinion.
  13. Another fine horse with duplications of Menow .
  14. Menow is a great horse to line breed with. He was a top class two year old in England. I believe that the duplication of him below, (on the male line of the second dam and appearing twice in broodmare sire positions in both Royal Academy and his sire Nijinsky ) along with the close inbreeding to Vain (not sex balanced ) contributed much to this mares ability. One of the last questions I ask my self when looking at pedigrees is 'Where is the duplication in the stallion ? )
  15. yes sex balancing does help but I believe understanding pedigrees is way deeper than that. Far more important to my mind is where the duplication in the pedigree appears. And having duplications in the parents of both the stallion and the mare must add to the success rate. Below is a great mirror image example using the male lines of the first few dams.
  16. Third selection is the stallion Echoes Of Heaven In this example the horse Lunchtime on Encharms male line has been duplicated as broodmare sire in Canny Lad. Further up the line is the Menow / Sir Ivor connection right in the middle. Nice that it appears through Encosta De Lago as well. Northern Dancer on the second dams male line completes the mirror image. Apologies that I couldn't find anything that was any where as hot incorporating Pakistain II Other options if trying to use Pakistain II would be to duplicate one of the names on his male line and none better than Fair Trial, Either use him or his close relative Tudor Minstrel. Both very fast horses. Hope you find this information useful.
  17. The next selection would be the stallion Niagara. First port of call again is up Encharms male line and this time Menow (moved forward one generation so can be seen on screen) is matched with his close relative Sir Ivor, Sir Ivor's second dam and Menow are three quarter brother and sister. I like the fact that Sir Ivor appears twice, once as broodmare sire in Naigara female line and also in Encosta De Lago's female line On the second dams male line Danehill has been duplicated and this time he appears as the sire of Niagara's second dam. Again,very hot positions. (This is same positions as major duplications in Jimmy Choux) Love the double of Danzig, a great horse to duplicate. and also Northern Dancer top and bottom. The arrows on screen point to what I call 'hot spots' in each of the first few parents in the pedigree.
  18. Couple of things to point out first. I have not seen your horse so please treat this as looking good on paper only. Not sure on your budget but will give a number of options. First choice is the stallion Shocking I think the duplication of Silly Season is in perfect position in both sire and dam. The double of Danehill on the second dams male line and as Shockings broodmare sire is what I would term very hot. Also on the second dams male line is Northern Dancer and this creates the mirror image with his close relatives Machiavellian and Halo at the top.
  19. After about two decades of studying pedigrees these are some of the methods that I use when planning matings. I like to create a mirror image of duplications. The pedigree of Mufhasa below is a great example. (Blue Peter has been moved forward one generation so he can be seen on screen) The order that I do it in is as follows I believe the best place to start is up the male line of the mare eg fig (1) to Blue Peter I like to see this duplication in the stallion in one of the broodmare sire positions eg fig (2) From there it is just repeating the same process with the second dam fig (3) and fig (4) Will post planned mating for your mare Encharm using same formula
  20. Hi there .... Mainlander I'm from the other Island. I'm new to this group. Have an intimate passion for pedigrees. Bit opinionated, but have had some success with my methods. Happy to share some knowledge occasionally with out payment, must be your lucky day. If you are interested just post your mares pedigree here and I will see what can do with it. Could be great discussion point.
  21. You are right pherozity1 Alamosa is showing similar patterns
  22. Hi everyone, I'm new to the group. Looking forward to fruitful discussions on breeding .I have attached the pedigree of Caulfield Cup winner Master O' Reilly carry a double of Pakistain II.