RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

rdytdy

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Posts posted by rdytdy

  1. 3 hours ago, gubellini said:

    Ted as you know I am a recidivist jockey defender! Three mitigating circumstances: He was the lowest rated horse in the field (85). He was only having his 7th start- the other runners had 226 races between them- seasoned tough campagners- in boxing parlance a bit light throwing a middleweight into the ring v a heavyweight. When you change a back runners racing style to on the pace invariably their breathing pattern goes out of kilter and they are vulnerable late.

     

    Hi Gubes

    You remain true to form (as expected) and will defend a rider to the hilt no matter what the circumstances. Riders are human and as such oft to make mistakes, you will see them every race day to be fair and that is understood. However when you see something so completely wrong a comment is warranted.    

    Looking at a number of racing stories in Australia media this morning there has only been condemantion of the ride and as you are aware Craig's ride has been slated by trainer Ciaron Maher and the owners. By Craig's own admission he f#*ked up and has apologised.

    Unfortunately there are no mitigagting circumstances in the tactics used, he went forward from the get go and worked to finally get to the front completely against instructions and the horse's normal racing pattern. Your last sentence only illustrates why this option was wrong.

    I just hope yesterday's ride does not undo all the good work that has gone into the horse. Unfortunately we haven't seen Giga Kick since and it would be a shame if Jimmysstar has been affected by the ride yesterday. I certainly hope not and hope he can bounce back when ridden properly next start.

    Between you and me I am not expecting Craig Williams to be listed as the rider.   :D    

       

     

  2. 32 minutes ago, say no more said:

    "I rest my case"??

    Makes it sound like you're suggesting that a guy who has ridden over 2,000 winners and 70+ Group 1 wins, has to answer to you for a judgement call he made during the running of a race!!?? 

    Well the evidence is compelling. 

    Ciaron Maher who trains the horse was annoyed and frustrated withe the ride and the accused has pleaded guilty.

     

    “Completely foreign territory for the horse, Disappointing for the punters and the owners and I know Ciaron is pretty annoyed and frustrated.

    “To Craig’s credit he came back and apologized. He said I made a blue with the ride.”

  3. Why would Craig Williams ride the hot favourite Jimmysstar completely upside down at Flemington today?

    The $1.30 favourite has never led in his life and Williams works him forward to lead at Flemington which has a long straight. The horse is left a sitting duck and bombed close to home. In every start to date Jimmysstar has been given time to settle into a rhythm and then launch in the run home

    I would have expected every speed map would have never had him leading the race with everyone expecting him to be ridden in his usual manner. Had Williams done so in my opinion Jimmysstar would be unbeaten in Australia. 

    Another botched ride on a hot favourite if one recalls Giga Kick. 

    Be interesting to see if the Stewards ask any questions.   

     

     

     

     

     

     

  4. Interesting comments Gruff.

     

    Molly Bloom has won four of her eight starts and of those four wins I have had her on top in three of them including her as a special bet of the weekend when she won the 1000 Guineas at Riccarton. In her other win on Saturday I had her second selection. 

    Here are the write ups for those four wins.

     

    R6    16    MOLLY BLOOM    $2.00FF  (15/9/2023 Taupo)

     

    She has had one start back in April at Avondale when she finished powerfully for a very close third behind two very nice horses. She was given a nice quiet trial at Avondale where she finished fourth and she is going to be very hard to beat in this. For multiples

     

     

     

     

    R7     9    MOLLY BLOOM    $4.00FF   (18/11/2023  Riccarton)

     

    She is a filly with plenty of ability and who has been unlucky in three of her four career starts including her last two particularly in the G2 Soliloquy Stakes at Pukekohe last start. Today she steps up over 1600m on a big track and if she can get clear air at the top of the straight and go through her gears she can boom home over them.

     

     

    R8    1    MOLLY BLOOM    $1.90FF   26/12/23   Pukekohe)

     

    I have her on top as she won the 1000 Guineas with a top run for us at Riccarton last month which had been preceded by a very unlucky fourth in the Soliloquy Stakes here in October. Not sure that she should be at $1.90 but she is a nice filly who has the NZ Oaks as her target at Trentham in March. Look for her to be hitting the line strongly.

     

     

    R4    4    SUDBINA     $5.00FF    (10/2/24  Te Rapa

     

    This filly has won her last two starts over 1400m and 1600m. The latter win was a good effort at Trentham in the Desert Gold Stakes after coming from last. She steps up to 2000m for this as do a number of other fillies but I feel she will get the distance and I do like the fact she has the ace draw. If she can jump and possie up in the trail and then get clear air at the top of the straight she could then prove hard to run down. For multiples:

     

    1  -  Molly Bloom  -  The 1000 Guineas winner Ellerslie was always going to present problems for her last time when she finished fourth. Here over 2000m she will get every chance.

     

     

    I was prepared to put Sudbina on top on Saturday over Molly as Molly’s run at Ellerslie wasn’t the best and created some doubt hence I put her in for second.  I believe that the evidence above clearly shows I have rated Molly Bloom pretty well and reiterate four wins with three first selection and a second selection.

     

    FYI   I did not have her first selection when she was beaten two starts ago at Ellerslie.

     

     

    R6    12    ORCHESTRAL     $3.50FF    (27/1/24  Ellerslie) 

     

    She is a smart filly coming in off the back of an impressive win over 1600m at Pukekohe last start and has the ace draw for this with James Mac to ride. I can see her three back on the fence in the running and if James can give her clear air early in the straight then she can let down with her turn of foot and prove hard to beat. Her work this week has been super and she is cherry ripe for this. For multiples:

     

    10  -  Molly Bloom  -  She has won three of her last four and is a top class filly. She will get back and look to run home over them. Whether the post comes up too soon for her on the track is the question mark.

     

    By the way I claim no expertise. My selections are but one person's opinion and I am at least prepared to offer them pre-race not afterwards.     

     

     

     

     

     

  5. Race 8 JR & N BERKETT TELEGRAPH (G1) 1200m DRAGON LEAP (W Kennedy) - Slow to begin. Unbalanced when contacted near the 800 metres. Contacted and crowded near the 200 metres. When questioned regarding performance rider advised after suffering interference early in the race, the gelding had over-raced and failed to finish the race off. Underwent a post-race veterinary examination which did not reveal any abnormality.

    MERCURIAL (S Spratt) - Blundered at the start, shifting outwards making contact with LINCOLN’S KRUZ. Came together with EXPRESS YOURSELF near the 75 metres.

    EXPRESS YOURSELF (R Hurdle) - Came together with MERCURIAL near the 75 metres.

    LINCOLN’S KRUZ (J Riddell) - Badly unbalanced when contacted leaving the barriers being forced onto the hind quarters of IMWONDERFULTONIGHT. Struck a heel of IFNDOUBTGETOUT near the 700 metres and blundered dislodging its rider. J Riddell was attended to by St John ambulance personnel and stood down from his remaining ride, having suffered minor injuries. J Riddell is now required to provide a medical clearance prior to riding next. Underwent a post-race veterinary examination which found the gelding to be 3/5 lame in the left foreleg also having lost the left front plate, with a veterinary clearance now required prior to racing again.

    IMWONDERFULTONIGHT (J Doyle) - Contacted leaving the barriers. Commenced to over-race on a moderate pace near the 900 metres.

    IS THAT SO (M McNab) - Knuckled leaving the barriers. Hampered by the riderless LINCOLN’S KRUZ near the 200 metres and was forced inwards on to DRAGON LEAP and NOT GUILTY.

    NOT GUILTY (K Asano) - Commenced to over-race on a moderate pace near the 900 metres. Contacted and crowded near the 200 metres.

    SHAMUS (R Elliot) - Severely restrained when becoming awkwardly placed on the heels of NOT GUILTY near the 800 metres, crowding MARIA FARINA onto DRAGON LEAP, with those three runners continuing to come together for a distance.

    IFNDOUBTGETOUT (L Allpress) - Severely crowded near the 700 metres having to be checked. Again checked when crowded near the 600 metres, with an inquiry into this incident being adjourned.

    MARIA FARINA (S Weatherley) – Contacted when crowded near the 800 metres. Held up passing the 400 metres, continuing having difficulty obtaining clear running until the 200 metres.

    R Hurdle (EXPRESS YOURSELF) - Admitted a charge of careless riding in that he permitted EXPRESS YOURSELF to shift inwards when not sufficiently clear of BONNY LASS which was checked causing crowding to IFNDOUBTGETOUT with LINCOLN’S KRUZ then striking a heel of IFNDOUBTGETOUT near the 700 metres, blundering and dislodging its rider. After hearing submissions, the Adjudicative Committee imposed a suspension of his licence to ride in races from the conclusion of racing today, Saturday, 13 January, until the conclusion of racing on Saturday, 10 February, 4 weeks, and in addition imposed a fine of $2,000.

  6. 6 hours ago, Shad said:

     Very sad on Paul's passing, he will be certainly missed, and his support of all the smaller clubs in the south with his horses, his late father Ray trained some very good performers, brutus and scotch mist come to mind, both by Balios, scotch mist may have one a Concorde,

     

    Ran 2nd behind Ulladallah in 1979 

     

     

  7. 7 hours ago, We're Doomed said:

    The race was very nearly won by a rating 65 horse, which wouldn't have done much for its status. As it is you would assume it would be under a warning after this season.

    It was no surprise that Coruba Jak put in a big run and nearly won the Cup. He would have won his previous two starts with a half decent ride. 

    He was given a gun ride this time in the Cup and Amber Sims throw at the stumps nearly came off.  :)  

  8. Annie Oakley is a half sister to Yonce who has had seven starts in Australia winning her first six on the bounce in Melbourne from 1200m to 2000m on good tracks.

    Then went to Sydney in April last year finishing fourth in the G1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes on a heavy track. Hasn't raced since being last seen winning a trial in January over 1000m.

    There is a full sister called Crazy In Love who has had one start for a win at Pukekohe in June last year and who has also gone off the radar not being seen since. 

    I have one going around in Heat 12 Rev so will watch heat 14 with interest also. 

       

  9. 33 minutes ago, mikenz said:

    Looks like the NZTR heiracgy have started gambling on the weather forecast, they won with the Gore decision, may have stuffed up with Rotorua though, seemed a bit hasty.

     The Gore situation was different as there were clear weather warnings in place,

    The bigger picture may have been taken in consideration with Rotorua as they do have a stakes meeting coming up on October 15th.  

  10. The forecast certainly doesn't show severe rainfall 

     

    No Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in force.

    80%
    Cooler; a shower in spots late in the morning followed by a little rain in the afternoon

    RealFeel®16°

    RealFeel Shade™15°

    Max UV Index4 Moderate

    WindN 13 km/h

    81%
    Periods of rain in the morning; otherwise, cloudy

    RealFeel®15°

    RealFeel Shade™14°

    Max UV Index1 Low

    WindN 13 km/h

    65%
    Rain and drizzle in the morning; otherwise, cloudy

    RealFeel®16°

    RealFeel Shade™15°

    Max UV Index2 Low

    WindW 7 k