RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

Berri

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Everything posted by Berri

  1. So do I read this correctly, a property has been sold where a businessman, who happens to be a member of the NZRB, asserts that he has a right to use the property he sold because he had verbally agreed that he was to remain on the property for a period of five years....and he never recorded this in writing....and he's a member of the NZRB?!?!... I thought we were going to get a group of people on that board who were savvy and leaders of business...
  2. Fritzy...the Aga does sometimes breed for the second generation ie. he's trying to breed a filly that he eventually wants to mate with some other horse that he has in mind. So he does not only breed to race. That is what I think Henri was trying to say.
  3. Back at it again.... Years ago the TAB turned down the opportunity to market and distribute Lotto... In 1995 the CEO of the TAB wrote to me to tell me that TAB customers wouldn't use the internet to lay bets In 1997, the new CEO of the TAB wrote to me to tell me that punters wouldn't use exchanges for betting... I keep talking about the longs odds bet that makes a jackpot as big as the lottery because it's something NZ Racing can do. The law says we can do it, the populous doesn't really care what the takeout rate is as long as the prize is big enough, there are plenty of subsidiary prize pools and there is a good marketing and distribution strategy. We all know about the problems with the TT. It was worth the try as long as what happens from here on builds on what has been done to date. Easy bets, lucky dips, arbitrage betting, TT's, fixed odds, exchanges...bring all of them to the table in a structured way and the industry can succeed. Just needs some brains, a bit of courage, some seriously smart IT people and the will to do it, and things could happen. Just needs someone to listen
  4. The real problem is that the industry is not using the real time demographics to provide a bet that appeals to the largest populous, namely people who don't bet on horse racing but bet on the lotteries. The TT will never do this because it's not a random outcome, so is therefore predictable. Once you have something predictable, you have big punters playing the odds...once you have that, you have a disenfranchised general populous who think its rigged because when it gets huge, the big punters come to town and win it. There's also a formula which says if the prize gets to $2m, then people will get interested. There's also the "I need to win smaller prizes consistently enough to keep me interested in coming back to try to win the big one". What is so difficult to understand about this proposition? That is why the lotteries are so successful. It's not rocket science. So does the TT do this? No. It's only chance is to co-mingle with the only country in the World that has succeeded to a degree, and that is Hong Kong. It's a chicken and egg thing...if you don't have the populous for this sort of bet, you don't get traction. I don't really care if they are spending funds on trying something new, because at least they're trying. What I would be very interested in is trying to understand the betting patterns in general. These would be: 1. How many new people have bet on it? 2. How many new people have bet on it once and then have repeated the exercise? 3. How much has been spent on traditional forms of betting prior and then post the introduction of the TT? You see, the question has to be whether we have created a market kick, where the overall betting revenue has increased. The counter to this is whether it has cannibalised the existing revenue base (ie. the revenue is the same but it has simply shifted to a new place). There is also the question of odds and probabilities. So far the bet has been running for approx. 8 weeks. During this time there have been a number of winners. This could be due to three things. These are: 1. There is a random skew of the odds where the winners in the game are beating the odds and over the next 8 weeks these balance themselves out by the TT not being struck; or 2. the types of races that are be used have a compressed effect of the odds, where either the field sizes are too small, or there are statistically a more predictable set of events, thereby making it easier to win that in Hong Kong; or 3. The random odds generator that is choosing the Easy Bets is calibrated incorrectly. But generally, in my humble opinion, the powers that ne are missing the trick. That's a guaranteed prize of $2m with a number of tiered subsidiary prize pools. Everyone bleats on about take out rates...that's the traditional punters. You don't hear anyone bleating about the 50% takeout rate for the lottery, so that's a side track when the prize is big enough and the smaller prizes provide a churn. For heavens sake....in the lottery, all that is happening is that a cylinder with a finite number of balls are being randomly selected with a great marketing plan and distribution system. That's what we have to replicate IF we are to attract the general gaming populous. We did market research in the 1990's and found that the general population DO NOT WANT to go into a pub to place a bet. They wanted to go to shopping malls or leisure shops. So what do we do?...we go pubs. So the answers are there...staring us in the face....just needs the right people to see it
  5. I meant to say Forteller, not Fiorente
  6. Technically trialled it in the UK because they didn't want it in NZ. Paid out the largest dividend in the history of UK pools betting. Let go a couple of games here in NZ until the Dept Internal Affairs said that a press release was an advertisement. Law got changed in the UK as they sold the Tote. We all decided it wasn't worth the push and drive anymore. Took some of the technology and put it into different industries and we're waiting for the day when someone says come to tea. They don't seem to understand that the key to racing succeeding in a lottery style space is not to kowtow to the big punters and supply a predictable bet.... its to supply a first division prize pool based on the outcome of horse races that is as big, if not bigger than the national lottery. It's actually all about odds. I don't give a rats arse about anyone telling me that the odds are so high that the educated horse punter thinks its too hard....that's exactly what is needed....something where the odds are better than 1 in 3m. That's how you get the big first division prizes. Then you've got to have the subsidiary prizes...that's why the punters keep coming back to have a go at the big one...its a teaser...this is not rocket science. All we did if work out how to do it. But we made one mistake. We started the game with the incorrect odds making profile for the algorithm. I won't go into it but we changed what was wrong before the law changed and the DIA started their insidious action, at the behest of the TAB. So we said bugger it...time to say no, not for now. So we've got the technology to support the processing of 20m bets a second, and software that supports the bet to create a lottery style bet based on horse racing. It's just got have willing recipients to allow it to be deployed.
  7. Just found out that Showcasing is a very close relative of Fiorente and Fix. I thought he was from a two year old family but boy was I wrong. There is a close relation in the Sydney sales. All bodes well for this stallion. Well done Master Chitty
  8. Problem with this site is that no one really cares what anyone ever says, whether good or bad but at least we are able to vent our frustrations and thoughts.<br /><br />Re the pattern...what is the pattern meant to be? Is it meant to be for the enhancement and bench marking of the breed or is it meant to be some willy nilly party fest?<br /><br />The pattern was originally set up to establish who was the best in all categories. The Derby was set up to determine which 3yo colt had the maturity and class to win a 2400m race mid way through the season. To be able to do this, the horse had to be able to step up to the plate in slightly adverse conditions (the prep races being run in the spring on rain affected tracks) and over a varied distance in the lead ups.<br /><br />So I get back to the pattern. For those that are able to to read this, there is a way of increasing the betting dramatically and seriously improving the value of the NZ horse at the same time. It's all to do with the pattern and the way bets are taken 8-10 months in advance to an event. The only problem is that you need to be able to offer multiple betting paths so that the punters can play the arbitrage game.<br /><br />I personally think the pattern is moving away from amortising the value of the industry . I think moving the Derby is not a breed shaper and I'm generally disappointed in the reduced potential that such a tinker of the system provides. We have so much potential but we don't seem to get over the top of it.<br /><br />But then again...I'm just a single voice....
  9. Did anyone see Marshment's horse go down in her prelim. She was short and scratchy before she raced. Go look at the tape. How we have changed our attitudes over two decades. We used to scoff at the English and French tracks for having the sting taken out of the tracks...we moaned about the Northern Hemisphere trainers who grumbled about the Aussie tracks being too hard. We prided ourselves on our horses being tough, strong and durable. Now we squeal when they run 1-07 and change. What sort of a horse are we now trying to breed? One that can handle all track types or a soft version of it? Was not our industry based on the tough durable horse? All I know is the mare Dancing Attendance arrived back in Matamata in one piece, none the worse for wear. Now I know her progeny have the genes to be tough and act on hard tracks. Much rather have one of them that the other that can only handle off tracks.....after all...racing horses was originally all about improving the breed and the race course was the stadium in which to do it.
  10. TAB site says that $1m was paid out with a $15k concession. As guarantee was $1m, looks like single fully paid ticket got it. If 3 live tickets going into the last then 2 will have won the concession and as concession paid $15k then might be reasonable to say that 2 fully paid tickets won the concession meaning that approx. $320,000 was bet. Obviously depends on the accuracy of the proposed % distributions from the pool and the percentages of the tickets making up the winning tickets.
  11. I don't bet and don't make myself out to be tipster. I also don't use, nor offer to impart insider knowledge in relation to betting. That way my nose is clean and I can commentate from an impartial position. I'm sure you will understand. I will though indicate from time to time, a horse that I consider to be a good horse...or vice versa....not so good.
  12. The stats are for NZ racing from 2002-2012. leggy....although some of these bets look like lotteries, they are simply a sequence of statistical probability. This is what is tricky in the TT...If I add the historical stats with some insider knowledge in relation to ability of a particular horse and then add that to insider knowledge of a horse that ISN'T going to win, then you produce a material skewedness to the results. If the horse(s) that Aren't going to win are favourite, the skewedness takes a completely different shape. I hope the judiciary is ready for that eventuation. What actually happens is that the retail segment of our betting market (mum and dad) provide liquidity for the wholesale segment of the betting market, who eventually take out the pool on most occasions. The secret to engaging the general market (mum and dad) is to take away the advantage of the wholesale betting market. This is what lotto has done.
  13. The actual odds of Triple Trio is not what you think it is due to the skewedness of the results of racing. If each horse entered had an equal chance of winning, then I would agree with your odds. But this is not the case. The determined tote favourite has a 27% chance of winning, the second fav 17% and the 3rd fav 13% etc. (see attached table). This means that the weighted average can be improved dramatically and reduces the odds substantially. So the odds of choosing the winner if one were to take the first three favourites would give you a chance of winning a particular race of about 50%...a material decrease. This changes further when you have a strong favourite. Then there is the matter of the place getters...if you knew a particular horse was going to fill in a place.... or not....as the easier case may be...then you start to skew the odds further in your favour. It's not simply a straight out random set of statistics statistics 18-1-14 Doc1.doc
  14. Woof woof....or should it be yap yap I will agree with you....at the moment I would be reticent to say that there are many people in the broad casting brains trust who would have the capability of turning the enhanced broadcasting image of NZ into something quite spectacular. You need passion and imagination to do that, in addition to a superior understanding of broadcast and graphics technology as well as the governance to manage the processes. I agree that this has been absent over the pat 5-10 years. But that said, the enhanced technology is on its way, starting from the film technology and the broadcast spectrum which may allow the broadcasting presentation to improve dramatically. It will be up to management to embrace it accurately and aggressively enough. I have to also agree. I personally think our program commentators are not helpful in respect of attracting new people to the game. I find the format boring, the content is too repetitive, there is no passion and therefore the monotonic voice patterns, that have obviously been coached into the commentators, are a complete turn off. I think the actual programing structure leaves a lot to be desired and the technical camera work and presentation is sloppy. Finally, just to complete another serve (and I'm not wanting to be personal in any of the things I am saying), I think we've completely missed the boat in respect of who the characters in the program need to be. I'm completely missing the characters called the owners. Apart from some very deliberate and often latent shots of cheering people, there is very little commentary and interaction with owners. They are the ownners of the gladiators (the horses) so they actually quite like the attention. They get very little when you consider the portfolio of screen time available. But this has all yet to be done. Interesting challenge to re-educate an entire team and culture.
  15. Hang on a minute guys...its all a meter of how you structure the whole offering. If you looked at the software industry and said that the first thing you need to do is put a lite version on offer, so that you got the gist of/ familiarity with the program/ service, you'd agree to this strategy. If you really wanted to receive the bells and whistles version, then you should pay. So take the triple trio introduction and the advent of HD cameras/ pictures that are about to arrive on our door step (our thanks to the newbies), and know that there needs to be a specialised enhanced broadcast offering, then would that not be the opportunity of the lite version of racing's broadcast offering?. Such an offering could be made available for broadcast on the main channels and could be a bridge to the current non punting population to be come interested in racing. I'm not that enamoured with the Triple Trio as a general population punting product as the odds are stacked in favour to those that have some insider info and ultimately the general population will probably become disillusioned with the results unless a regular populous of non big punting people win big prizes.....but if you considered it an opportunity to garner interest, then it's positive stuff. There are a lot of big punters who will play if the value is there. Rebates and discounting can achieve the price competitiveness of this product. So its just a matter of strategy. If you had a fantastic 3 race presentation with enhanced broadcasting on free to air TV and the three races were all within 10-15 minutes of each other, that would be interesting.....wonder whether they will do it?
  16. Without being personally critical, I'm finding the commentators to be extremely boring, very mono toned and without any passion. It is like their mentors have put them all through an educational program on how to be mediocre. It would seem that they feel as though they have to ramble continuously to be doing a good job. I've now watched racing from Elerslie...not a series of owner interviews (they love being on TV every else in the World), where are the great stories from the players within the industry (not just trainer and jockey), the commentators shouldn't be the central entity, they should be the master of ceremonies, not the bride, groom and best man deciding to hog the microphone. But the mono tone continuous ramble has really turned me off. My guests feel the same way. This is not a tipping program...it should be an event story telling exercise. You've all missed the point.....time to change
  17. DARLEY'S first round of online auctions for a nomination to six of its stallions in Europe ended on Friday with three fetching higher prices than their advertised fees for 2014. The three-day auction provided a platform for people to bid on 2014 stallion nominations for Exceed And Excel, Farhh, New Approach, Iffraaj, Reckless Abandon and Teofilo. The highest price achieved was for the nomination to popular sophomore New Approach, the sire of Classic winners Dawn Approach and Talent from his first crop, who reached a high of £100,000 - £20,000 higher than his advertised fee £80,000 for 2014. Another sought after nomination was the one to Iffraaj, who went for €4,500 above his stated fee when knocked down for €29,500.
  18. Heck you're a tough ask...no wonder every time you post we get into a squabble. The topic was all about the ARC and what the results were of the twilight meeting. Then you bring into it the NZTR, the betting figures for the nation (not Auckland)and you wrap it up with a comment about fixed odds betting versus tote betting. We know that the ARC doesn't offer fixed odds betting (their right to run their own tote was taken off them in the previous Racing Bill) so one could only assume that you are talking about the NZRB as they are the only party mandated to offer such a product. In your post you also refer to my praise for the newbies as I described them and you derogatorily refer to certain initiatives as "cunning plans" which to the layman suggest that something untoward may be happening. So I will take the imitative and start a new thread heading called NZRB and NZTR so that something constructive might be said that is acceptable to most caring and intelligent people. In the meantime, well done ARC on the twilight meeting. You should extend the offering and set up a concert for the after match. All we need to do is dig a big hole in the centre of the track, put a hydraulic lift underneath so that a stage can be elevated once the racing is all over, get a noise allowance for concerts and finish the night with an even bigger bang.
  19. Munch-a-lot Well correct me if I'm wrong but I thought this thread was about the Auckland Racing Club. Just maybe you speak with a different tongue? Start another thread if you want to talk about the NZTR or NZRB.
  20. You guys are hard task masters. The Auckland Racing Club is a group of guys and gals managing a bunch of assets such as buildings and restaurants. It just so happens that it is able to offer betting as well. So one of its biggest earns is to ensure that it sells as much booze and feeds as many people as possible and at the same time market and distribute its brand. Step number one....get the people to the premises...step number 2, sell them merchandize, step number 3, sell them value add (betting), step number 4, sell remotely (betting off the course). Until the NZTR get the database right, selling to the external markets is going to be tricky. Don't knock the AUCK Racing Club. They're the service providers that support the industry and sell their brand.
  21. Berri

    Sheriff,

    I've been following this thread and have been wondering what the problem is with the NZRB's strategy to implement systems that exploit pokie machines. In general terms I don't agree with them but then again I don't agree with violent X-Box games that target young children, the abuse of the alcohol licensing laws and the changes made to the recreational fishing quotas without the proper research. The facts of the matter are that pokie machines are now part of the fabric of our society and the poor people who are dumb enough to sit in front of them and lose their ready made's deserve to lose them. The problem is not with the system, its with the people. If it wasn't pokies then it would be horse racing, or the lotteries...it doesn't really matter because there is a slightly self destructive gene in all of us. It just manifests itself differently. Some do drugs...some kill people...some rape kids... I'm sure you're all aware that in Australia, as part of the agreements with the governments, that racing received revenue from the pokie machines in a monopolist manner and that underpinned the revenue going to racing. As I understand it, the moratorium for this exclusive arrangement stops in 2015 (I may be wrong but that is as I understand it). So I know that racing over there is manoeuvring to position itself to an advantage. Similarly this country realises that pokies are destructive but that the horse under law, had bolted. The problems that we have had is that wallies like Acklin, who I believe only does what's right for Acklin, exploit the system and give it a bad pull. Hence the rearrangement of the deck chairs in an attempt to weed the bad weeds. So I am fully supportive of the NZRB positioning itself to exploit the Pokie market. It should have been done ages ago and those in power in the past should have realised this earlier and got on with the job. We have a rule book that allows us to do our business. What needs to happen is that those rules need to be amortised in an efficient and profitable manner. Good on them.
  22. I'm not sure of the relevance of Makfi being turned down by a Hunter Valley Stud comes in but I'm quite sure that at the right price, any stallion could stand in the Hunter Valley. It's all about the economics and perception of an animal
  23. Mrs Ed....have another draw on a cigarette...Who said that Tavistock was the next big thing? Can't see that on a post anywhere. Two group ones, a group 2 in Aussie, being by a champion sire who recently died, 3rd Dam produced a Japan Cup winner and a champion unbeaten 2yo...not sure you're right about Hunter Valley not wanting him. Progeny went to the likes of Waterhouse, Waller, etc so someone thought he was OK. All I said was that some of his other types were better looking than the one who won. Here's hoping he goes on with it. NZ needs a good stallion. We're rather light on the ground.