RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

fitzy

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  1. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from chevy86 in Unbelievable! Guess Who's Back?   
    Given the total lack of respect she showed the judicial and racing authorities during her drugs fiasco a few years back she should never be allowed a license in my view.
     
    How could anyone be confident that she is a "fit and proper person". ??
  2. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from porky in Tom Wood and Des Coppins today from Melbourne !!   
    Many years ago at the Ellerslie trials I remember George coming out with the classic "and so and so is puling like a schoolboy".
    Dont think he was ever brave enough to use it in a race.
  3. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from Black Kirrama in James McDonald 1000 Winners   
    Yes awesome achievement!! Would he be the youngest in Australasia to ever achieve this?
    Good to see him winning on a Darley horse as well.
    Team O'Shea is building steam, should silence the morons who were saying he wouldn't make it a month or so ago.
  4. Like
    fitzy reacted to GONSTA in Vespa   
    LMAO... 19 winners and coming 2nd in the spring jockeys premiership riding against the best jockeys in Australia and a proven top jockey against some of the best in the world in Japan vs MDP who has never had a placing in a feature race in Melbourne...

    Whatever tickles your fancy I guess scooby.
  5. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from biff in Vespa   
    In my opinion 2+3 showed a significant lack of judgement in staying on the rails. They were never going to let him have it easy.
     
    Agree with Biffs comments about them not having read the race properly.
    Thats the price you pay when you use an out of town jock, from NZ or anywhere.
  6. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from Breeder in Pedigree Analysis and Yearling Sale Selection   
    Thanks Henri that post re Sir T's race history is well known. For me it's a real stretch to say he was a "very good racehorse".
    I would agree that he had more ability than his record would indicate. A horse like Volksraad would be similar in more recent times.

    The real Sir T history is that Patrick had spent 6-12 months looking for a stallion prospect in England & Europe etc via his bloodstock agent who was probably the top man in those days.

    The agent was aware of Sir T but never quoted him to Patrick as he wasn't considered good enough!
    Sir T was "discovered" by a pedigree enthusiast in NZ who alerted Patrick to the horse.

    The rest is history. Let's hope there is another like Sir T in the NZ stallion line up -we really need one, and can't afford just to rent horses from Coolmore and the like.
  7. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from meomy in Go the Girls!   
    What about the Logans - 6 winners from 10 races! Great result and well done Team Logan!
    Has this ever been done in NZ before?
  8. Like
    fitzy reacted to JBK in Showcasing   
    im just pointing out that there is a long list of those horses that yes they do a good job but struggle to make the cut commercially here are they going to make it where it matters for us?  I have my doubts.  I could be wrong but I wouldn't be getting carried away at this early point in the season. 
  9. Like
    fitzy reacted to biff in New Stallions for 2014   
    Berri, the previous owner of this site is correct, you are a fruit. If you are a troll as it's proving, then do your worst, find out through your research, I'm not about to get into a slanging match……..
     
    Trust and honesty is waning, if you can't take what someones says on here, then you are obviously judging like by like. You have missed the whole point, I haven't called you a bull shitter, where did I say that. I say that my experience of Tights stock was not good, and many of my peers said same……they just didn't like them! plus they didn't handle the grind and atmosphere of MEL and city race and stable routines…….
     
    I should have just shut up and let you believe what you believe…….many Oz trainers would be at your throat with the insinuation they can't train as your European trainers can…….with the exception perhaps of the mighty Dermott Weld and the French generals such as Mrs C Head, and Alan de Royer Dupre I would give a tinker cuss for the rest…….they don't have to train on tracks like we have to, they have magnificent facilities at Newmarket, at Chantilly etc……..but there horses grow lengths here in Oz, why do you reckon that is?……...
     
    I've been polite to Forrest as I was to you…….you don't deserve it……..
  10. Like
    fitzy reacted to biff in New Stallions for 2014   
    Henri, I must say that during my time at both Caulfield and Flemington in the 80's the Tights I saw we're not good types and I saw plenty each morning, the strappers didn't like them as they struggled to get on (the many I saw)
    they were identified early as stayers and I guess they were trained accordingly, maybe they performed better when trained from a country environment ? That's possible, but those I saw we're lacking pace and acceleration .......IMO
  11. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from biff in New Stallions for 2014   
    "PS Tights is the dam sire of So You Think."
     
    That's true Henri - but could you name anything else Tights will be remembered for ? (other than heavy boned slow maturing types with bad temperaments)
     
    One swallow does not a summer make I think !
  12. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from biff in New Stallions for 2014   
    Interesting comments Henri, but if he looks like Tights then based on that sires performance it would'nt be any help to him.
    I actually thought he may have thrown more to Marscay who was around 17 hh - how did he ever win a Slipper ? (answer - cause McGinty was injured  )
     
    biff agree with your opinion of Shamexpress.Whilst he only won the one G1 he started against the best every time he went to the track and never shirked. Great combination of top class sires in O'Reilly and VW from a tough family. No weak stallions in his line up in my view.
  13. Like
    fitzy reacted to Berri in Fiorente at Eliza Park Australia $17,600 incl. GST   
    Talking this pedigree stuff is like taking a blind taste with wine. It's been proven that neither out come is predictable. Considering that the entire breed is made up of three stallions and thirty odd broodmares (there have been a number of unknown introductions) and that every theory that every pedigree student that I have met has an alternative point of view, and that every pedigree buff (other than John Aiscan)has not really been statistically more successful than any one else, the language you talk actually has very little validity.

    There is something to be said about statistically avoiding certain trends that don't work, and on the inverse, embracing certain traits that do work, but trying to pre-determine the potential stallion ability of Fiorente by saying that Danzig 3x3 may prevent him from becoming a stallion is a very big stretch. A little while ago many people were saying that Danzig over Danzig wasn't working. That's now starting to be disproved. Some of this takes time to be flushed out.

    In relation to Fiorente, I'd be approaching his stallion potential completely differently. In the first instance you'd have to try and imagine whether he is a true representative of his sire Monsun, because Monsun is the main influence that I'd be looking towards. I saw Monsun in Germany and have seen many of his progeny. They are exceptional horses but on the whole have the look that they need to be 4 year olds to be good race horses. This of course is born out by the history of his progeny but I'm talking about type. They originally had a reputation that they needed a lot of moisture in the track surface to show there best, and this is probably true when they are younger, but as older horses they are mature enough to handle it. Many of them don't have turns of foot, they just stay well and out gun their rivals.

    Now Monsun is a true representative of the German racing system which was created for betting, as the German authorities really frowned upon betting for betting's sake. The system was set up to test who was the best horse and betting came in later. That's why the German racing industry is in so much deep poo but their race horses are fantastic. They have an extremely small breeding market but because you weren't allowed to register horses (in particular stallions) with known problems, only the good sound tough horses ended up standing at stud.

    So to Fiorente, although I enjoy to see the end result of racing once a horse has retired, often the most revealing period of time is any horse's first 3 starts. For me it's the shop front window of unrealised potential when the handlers are still trying to work the horse out. So often this is the time to see the raw ability and when the handler thought it might be available for scrutiny.

    So as an April 3 year old, trained by Mike Stoute, he had his first start over 2200m at Newbury, which can be a gallopers track because it's not as undulating as some of the UK tracks. This normally means that the trainer (in Stoutes league) feels the horse isn't sharp, needs a sound track and has some ability. You can still get to the classics starting off in April.

    Racing Post's comment was

    " Fiorente, who holds a Derby entry, is a half-brother to fairly useful 5f and 6f winner Masada, and 6f juvenile winner Roshanak. A big-looking type, he made a pleasing debut and will no doubt be wiser next time with this experience under his belt".

    That he held a Derby entry and that Soute decided to take on World Domination (a talk horse before he hurt himself) means Stoute had an opinion and wanted to test it.

    He went back to Newbury a month later and was pitted against some Derby entries...once again Racing Post's comments..

    "The first three are well enough regarded to have Derby entries and FIORENTE ran out an ultimately very comfortable winner. Down a furlong in trip after finishing fifth to World Domination on his debut here last month, he was pulled off the fence to lead two furlongs out and, pushed clear, won going away. This is a long way off Derby form, but this powerful colt looks a nice prospect who could well be up to pattern company later in the season".

    It was the third race that interested me. He started in a Group 2 (King Edward) against Nathanial after the Derby (won by another of Stoute's horses called Workforce). Remember Nathanial had been beaten less than a length by Frankel in his first race. The word is that Workforce and Fiorente had been working together on the gallops and that Workforce was working over the top of Fiorente. So Stoute decided to compete against a horse that was known to be very good. Fiorente was beaten by 5 lengths, but to his credit, Nathanial went on to beat Workforce at his next start in the King George.

    So you're either going to say that Fiorente wasn't as good as the best, or that he needed to mature to be at his best, or that Gai Waterhouse improved him. You could argue that based on type (big rangey good looking sort as a youngster) that Stoute decided he was a stayer only, as Stoute had originally trainer Pulsudski and probably had a preconceived idea in relation to his ultimate potential. Or you could say that as a younger horse he was out gunned by the good ones who had more pace at that time.

    So if this is the type of horse you would like to breed you mare to, then go for it. Incidentally Pulsudski, although a fantastic looking horse, was an absolute failure as a stallion. Funny how some families don't produce stallions where others do.

    As for determining a 3x3 Danzig being the determining factor for a horses potential to become a stallion....one or two steps to far for me.
  14. Like
    fitzy reacted to pogo(aus) in Kentucky Derby 2014 - 10.24am today (NZ)   
    any bolak, wharf , lanfranco or first norman ?
  15. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from Breeder in Busiest Stallions during 2013   
    Suggest you put on your hard hat and flak jacket fella. Fairy sure that you will be proven wrong on 2 of those 3.
    A wise horse man once said to me "never criticise a stallion until its been dead for 10 years. Horses are born to make liars of men".
  16. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from Lloyd Vivian in Ocean Park or Sacred Falls   
    Both horses are exceptional stallion prospects and we are fortunate to have them in NZ.
    Pedigree wise you might give the nod to a son of O'Reilly but as said above we might not have seen the best of Thorn Park.

    Both were exceptional racehorses, maybe SF the better 3YO. That said OP was super impressive at 4 and showed plenty earlier.
    SF is the most like his sire I have seen, with almost freakish ability. I rate O'Reilly as the most naturally talented horse I have seen, and I don't think we ever saw him at his best in such a brief career.

    If I had the money I think you could just alternate between them for a few years!
  17. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from Centrofold in Sacred Falls   
    Not sure if you watched his 2 previous starts but ave riding almost certainly cost him a winning chance in the George Ryder and wasn't much better the time before. SF has been unlucky in his Oz racing, he was butchered several times last Spring including by L Innes. Was an absolute certainty beaten at Monnee Valley.

    Waller is clearly a master trainer but he hasn't always taken the best options with this horse. That said he's going to be an exceptional stallion prospect. His win in the HB Guineas was freakish.
  18. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from Lloyd Vivian in Sacred Falls   
    Not sure if you watched his 2 previous starts but ave riding almost certainly cost him a winning chance in the George Ryder and wasn't much better the time before. SF has been unlucky in his Oz racing, he was butchered several times last Spring including by L Innes. Was an absolute certainty beaten at Monnee Valley.

    Waller is clearly a master trainer but he hasn't always taken the best options with this horse. That said he's going to be an exceptional stallion prospect. His win in the HB Guineas was freakish.
  19. Like
    fitzy reacted to Lloyd Vivian in O'Reilly & Waikato Stud   
    Yes, Sir Godfrey was their stallion at Thornton Park. He still appears in a few of their foundation mares pedigrees. Centaine was certainly their SirTristram and O'Reilly is now their Zabeel!
  20. Like
    fitzy reacted to hedley in O'REILLYs over ANABAA Mares   
    ..my manwomb wouldn't cope
  21. Like
    fitzy reacted to scooby3051 in O'Reilly & Waikato Stud   
    Waikato put so much into the industry it is great to see Mark and all the team do well.
  22. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from sharne in O'Reilly & Waikato Stud   
    How good are they going? 3 G1 winners for O'Reilly in 2 weeks, Inc the 2 biggest races in Oz outside the slipper & Melbourne Cup!
    Then Savabeel chips in with a G1 filly last week as well.
    Sacred Falls looks like an outstanding sire prospect, thanks god for NZ breeding industry that the Chitticks back their judgement with their money!
  23. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from Lloyd Vivian in O'Reilly & Waikato Stud   
    How good are they going? 3 G1 winners for O'Reilly in 2 weeks, Inc the 2 biggest races in Oz outside the slipper & Melbourne Cup!
    Then Savabeel chips in with a G1 filly last week as well.
    Sacred Falls looks like an outstanding sire prospect, thanks god for NZ breeding industry that the Chitticks back their judgement with their money!
  24. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from Lloyd Vivian in Savabeel   
    Henri I dont know if that was intended to be a backhanded compliment but even by your standards that is a remarkably naive post. IMHO the future of the NZ thoroughbred breeding industry rests in the hands of 3 or 4 studs, of which Waikato and the Chitticks are leading the way.
     
    Imagine what the Karaka catalogue would look like if you took away Zabeel; O'Reilly; Pins and Savabeel. Would any overseas buyers even spend an airfare to have a look? I have my doubts.
     
    The Chitticks and Waikato are in reality the only Stud in the last 10 years who have put their money were their mouth is and made substantial investments in purchasing stallions outright, rather than just renting them from Coolmore and others. Waikato has invested tens of millions and deserves every sucess they get. Its a mark of their commitmment that (and perhaps a sign of what some others lack) that they have gone out and secured new horses like Rock n Pop and Ocean Park, and maybe eventually Sacred Falls. It is horses like these which will provide the NZ industry with a commercially successful future.
     
    Just stop and think for a minute how much better off we would be if NZ studs had owned shares in High Chapperal or Montjeu to name but two.
     
    I admire the other studs out there having a go with cheaper and lower profile stallions and they too deserve what ever success they achieve. However the brutal reality is that the only stallion (Sir T excluded)I have seen in 40 years which has truly gone from the "basement to the penthouse" is Volksraad. Upgrading stallions from humble beginnings is a hard road.
  25. Like
    fitzy got a reaction from Breeder in Savabeel   
    Henri I dont know if that was intended to be a backhanded compliment but even by your standards that is a remarkably naive post. IMHO the future of the NZ thoroughbred breeding industry rests in the hands of 3 or 4 studs, of which Waikato and the Chitticks are leading the way.
     
    Imagine what the Karaka catalogue would look like if you took away Zabeel; O'Reilly; Pins and Savabeel. Would any overseas buyers even spend an airfare to have a look? I have my doubts.
     
    The Chitticks and Waikato are in reality the only Stud in the last 10 years who have put their money were their mouth is and made substantial investments in purchasing stallions outright, rather than just renting them from Coolmore and others. Waikato has invested tens of millions and deserves every sucess they get. Its a mark of their commitmment that (and perhaps a sign of what some others lack) that they have gone out and secured new horses like Rock n Pop and Ocean Park, and maybe eventually Sacred Falls. It is horses like these which will provide the NZ industry with a commercially successful future.
     
    Just stop and think for a minute how much better off we would be if NZ studs had owned shares in High Chapperal or Montjeu to name but two.
     
    I admire the other studs out there having a go with cheaper and lower profile stallions and they too deserve what ever success they achieve. However the brutal reality is that the only stallion (Sir T excluded)I have seen in 40 years which has truly gone from the "basement to the penthouse" is Volksraad. Upgrading stallions from humble beginnings is a hard road.