RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

Henri Jooste

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Everything posted by Henri Jooste

  1. One sire that I recall with German bloodlines that stood in NZ in the early nineties was Antic Boy (by Nebos ex Alaria by Kaiseradler). Though born in Ireland he was conceived in Germany. Antic Boy raced twice at 2 years and once at three years. At two years he won the GR3 Lepardstown Stakes beating Mulhollande and Bluebird and was placed on his debut. At three years he ran third in the GR2 Derrinstown Derby Trial Stakes behind Seattle Dancer and Ancient Times. Antic Boy was retired to John Shaw's Prebbleton Farm where his potential went unrecognised and wasted. Antic Boys sire stats were respectable, he sired 49 named foals, 36 starters, 14 winners and three stakes winners. His three stakes winners Kincaple Lad (GR3 CJC Stewards H), Thomas James (GR3 White Robe Lodge H) and Auchtric (Listed Canterbury Breeders S) were all from his third crop that numbered only 10 named foals.
  2. Tatura or may I call you Ian ? The point of my post Ian was to try and be helpful to enable you to unlock the latent potential of your mares pedigree. I have some provided facts that may shed light on the subject and that may assist you with your sire selection, Princess Wonder is not a young mare so the opportunities are diminishing. This is a case of "don't shoot the messenger", rather take the time to absorb the information and reflect on it. I have learnt a lot in the process of reviewing this mare and have a greater insight into the merits of linebreeding and inbreeding to Vali and Val De Loir as a result and after all that's what this breeding forum is all about isn't it ? I wish you every success with your endeavour.
  3. For what it’s worth here are some observations on the topic around Val de Loir and also the mare Princess Wonder. Though Princess Wonder is a half-sister to Kisumu the dam of Gondokorno and Zabeelionaire they are poles apart, firstly as racehorses in ability and then their respective sires Desert Prince and Carnegie have had very different outcomes as broodmare sires. Princess Wonder raced only once finishing 20 lengths last in a field of eleven runners. Kisumu on the other hand was a stakes class horse who ran 3rd behind Miss Finland in the GR2 Armanasco Stakes. IMHO what suits Kisumu in terms of stallion compatibility may not work for Princess Wonder. Princess Wonder has shown that she can produce good winners to sires such as Kilimanjaro and Captain Rio. The challenge lies in finding compatibility for her sire Desert Prince who takes the distaff pedigree on a totally different tangent to that of Kisumu through Carnegie. Linebreeding to Val de Loir himself or to Vali has largely been a disappointment and at best results are no better than average. It would appear that Zabeel is the best conduit for such experiments and it begs the question whether it is Zabeel himself rather than the duplication of Val De Loir or Vali that deserves the credit. Montjeu looks promising in this department. Some of the well-intended suggestions included consideration of Machiavellian line sires and also Sadler’s Wells in the quest for a suitable sire for Princess Wonder. Daughters of Desert Prince have been tried with a variety of sons and grandsons of Machiavellian and not a single stakes winner or stakes placed runner has been produced this way. The situation has been much the same with Sadler’s Wells and his sons, there has only been a single stakes winner , Havana Beat (Teofilo) out of daughters of Desert Prince. The picture is also similar with Nureyev and his sire sons and grandsons, to date not a single stakes winner or stakes placed horse has been produced between them! The best horse out of a Desert Prince mare is Alfred Nobel winner of the GR1 Phoenix Stakes. Alfred Nobel is by Danehill Dancer, interestingly Choisir (by Danehill Dancer) has sired Three Sea Captains a listed stakes winner out of the Desert Prince mare La Tintoretta. Danehill Dancer and Choisir have bred 11 foals from mares by Desert Prince.
  4. Welcome to the forum Tatura. There is absolutely no reason why Gorky Park should not prove to be a capable sire. He was a good hard knocking racehorse proven under Australian conditions, his credentials on pedigree and performance are comparable with Guillotine. Montjeu has made the progression to being recognized as a sire of sires. Paxton Park is a good outfit and if he is up to it Gorky Park will go from strength to strength.
  5. The temperament issue with Sophie Louise may well be attributed closer to home than Zeddaan and very likely to Storm Bird the grand sire of Postponed. Storm Bird had a reputation for being hot, a trait which he passed on to his son Storm Cat who seemed to get a double dose.
  6. Based on your assessment above Sir Tristram should never have been given an opportunity in New Zealand and Danehill with his all American dirt pedigree should have failed in Australia as well. Berri you normally talk sense, however this time you are talking a nonsense. There is no reason why Indy King’s offspring should not be adept with local conditions, remember he is only half of the equation, local mares the other half. Sons of A.P. Indy (Camden Park and Judpot) have already made their mark in South Africa where racing takes place almost exclusively on Turf. In Australia Bernardini has shown he can produce some good sorts too. The last person who made similar comments about the surface aptitudes and the lack of suitability for these climes was none other than Colin Whightman. Remember he was the genius who said that Sadler’s Wells and his kin were “poofter blood”, mud larks and did not have the temperament to succeed down under. Wightman wrote off both Montjeu and High Chaparral and made the bold prediction that the son of Sadler’s Wells most likely to succeed in New Zealand would be Desert Fox because of his conformation !! That same expert harped on about dirt versus turf horses and how unsuitable American horses were for the Southern Hemisphere, as a result of his ranting Van Nistelrooy was withdrawn from service in these parts. In the short time he stood in NZ he sired 8 stakes winners including NZ Oaks winner Boundless. Long cannons did not prove a hindrance to the mighty Phar Lap either come to think of it.
  7. The best filly bred from the family of Sophie Louise in recent times is All is Secret. Here is her pedigree :-
  8. Thank you for the invitation for my 5 cents worth Breeder ! A few points that need to be made:- Firstly until this mare can produce a black type winner her offspring will be confined to Festival Sale status. The question therefore Nek Minute is whether you want to continue along the breeding pathway with her ? You do ! Great because now you can use any sire that you choose to produce that elusive black type winner without the constraints of fashion dictating. The most obvious first choice for sire would then be Ekraar for your mare Sophie Louise. The resultant foal would be bred on the same pattern that produced the very good race mare Rising Romance. There is a good chance that you may be able to breed another good horse this way because Rising Romance is the product of an affinity between members of the Missy Baba family when duplicated within pedigrees. Missy Baba is the dam of Gay Missile (dam of Lassie Dear). Lassie Dear is of course the grand dam of Summer Squall the sire of Postponed. To distill down my point, Rising Romance features linebreeding to the relatives Raja Baba and Lassie Dear. The best example of exactly this pattern, in reverse, is the brilliant sprinter across the ditch Hay List. If you like what I have described but want to explore another option then Indy King could be as good an option as Ekraar. The very best colt bred to date by Indy King is the GR1 Florida Derby runner up Pleasant Prince. His pedigree features line breeding to Lassie Dear and Missy Baba (dam of Raja Baba). If you need more convincing then take a look at the pedigree of Indy King’s best daughter to race, Mindy Queen ( 10 wins including the Assinaboia Oaks in Canada and Prairie Rose Stakes in the USA). Just like Hay List and Rising Romance mentioned above Mindy Queen features linebreeding to Lassie Dear and Raja Baba. Indy King has proven to be a good sire of both sexes. The latest development with the Missy Baba family is duplicating Lassie Dear in pedigrees which is proving to be as effective, so Indy King over Postponed mares makes sense. Below are pedigree grids for the horses described:-
  9. Ashoka I was also somewhat bemused by Berri's post, he is usually on the mark with his observations. All three Choisir, Shamardal and Pivotal were smart race horses by good commercial sires. Of the three Choisir had the weakest immediate dam and grand dam but then both were by good racehorses and sires in Lunchtime and Biscay. By weakest I mean non stakes performing, Choisir's dam Great selection was nevertheless a winner at 2 years in Sydney and his grand dam Pensive Mood won 4 races. Volksraad was Timeform rated 90 at 2 years and gained a TFR of 109 at 3 years. For the record who was the pedigree enthusiast in NZ that discovered Sir Tristram ?
  10. This topic has generated some good discussion however there are a number of half truths. I believe it is in everyone’s interests to make sure that we get the information correct otherwise the myths get perpetuated. I don’t want to come across as a nit-picker, just want to set the record straight. Firstly Benediction the dam of Might and Power was a good race filly, good enough to win and be stakes placed at 3 years. That group of mares were all well related and deserving of the opportunity not only to go to stud but to go to good commercial sires too. Eight Carat was a half sister to the champion filly Habibti and traced back through Mumtaz Mahal through Lady Josephine. She fetched good money for an unplaced maiden mare at the Tattersalls Sales and was on sold later for a substantially more to Patrick Hogan. Her sire Pieces of Eight was a top class racehorse, a smart 3 year old he earned a lofty Timeform Rating of 128. His stud record is best described as respectable and besides Eight Carat another of his daughters also bred a brilliant Group One winner Handsome Sailor (GR1 William Hill Sprint Championship and GR1 Prix de l’Abbaye). To try and place Jest Kidding in the same category as Sir Tristram is just ridiculous. Jest Kidding was useless as a racehorse. He raced seven times and his best effort was a second placing at the Victorian country track of Swan Hill. The winner never placed before or subsequently and the rest of the field could not shed maiden their maiden status even racing in the weakest country maiden class. Sir Tristram on the other hand was a very good racehorse contrary to popular belief. He raced twice as a 2 year old, winning on debut before winning over 1800m beating a field of 21 runners, he finished second at his second start. As a three year old Sir Tristram showed his class when running second beaten a short neck by Mount Hagen (TFR 127) in the listed Prix Omnium, he was relegated to third for interference. Sir Tristrams owner Raymond Guest a former US ambassador to Ireland then embarked on an ambitious program to contest both the Kentucky Derby and Epsom Derby with Sir Tristram ! It was destined to fail, at his second US start Sir Tristram ran 11th in the Kentucky Derby. His jockey Bill Hartack who had piloted Northern Dancer to victory in the Kentucky Derby had this to say about Sir Tristram “…he was a pretty decent horse, but he never came acclimated over here because he was rushed to run the Derby” Hartack also went on to say “He was a big, strong, good-looking horse, and I thought he had a lot of ability” – high praise from a jockey who has ridden 5 individual Kentucky Derby winners ! Upon his return to France Sir Tristram had an accident, he smashed his near fore pastern necessitating the insertion of two pins and was boxed for nearly four months, in spite of this he had a busy season as at four years. Sir Tristram raced in the best company at 4 years, he raced 14 times, won over a mile and placed another 7 times. A memorable performance was his 4th placing behind the champion filly Allez France in the GR2 Prix Foy. Sir Tristram was accorded a respectable Timeform rating of 115 Ib. I can only think of one patently bad racehorse that became a good sire and that is Tredennis (1898). Tredennis had three unplaced career starts. Tredennis went on to feature twice on the top ten sires list in Great Britain and sire amongst others Bachelor’s Double.
  11. Tony Riley one of racings characters passed a way yesterday after a short illness. The former champion Zimbabwean trainer and successful international trainer in South Africa and Singapore will be sadly missed those who knew him. Tony spent the last few years living in Cambridge. RIP Tony
  12. Only a fool would ignore the plain facts. These are the foolish statistics:-502 foals 339 runners 2 GR1 winners Daffodil (ex O’Reilly mare), I Do (ex O’Reilly mare) O’Reilly mares have produced 77 foals by No Excuse Needed. Mares by other sires have produced 425 foals by No Excuse Needed. To date no Group One winners amongst them.
  13. Once again it looks like much of the credit for the success, as a sire, of No Excuse Needed can be attributed to O’Reilly, just like we saw earlier when discussing Good Journey. There is no evidence of a significant increase in the success of progeny bred in the way suggested above. This pattern has been well tried so far with No Excuse Needed without any better results compared with mares with differing sire patterns. I have reviewed every pedigree of the offspring sired by No Excuse Needed that have raced to date. Not even Danehill or his sire sons have been able to significantly upgrade the abilities of No Excuse Needed progeny compared with other sires in the general population, Danehill remember is bred 3x3 to Natalma. No Excuse needed has bred 16 stakes winners in total, to daughters of O’Reilly he has produced 5 stakes winners. Of the remaining 11 stakes winners 5 are by sires stemming from Northern Dancer line sires and the other six by non Northern Dancer line sires. (All six are by non Northern Dancer line sires and so too are their grand sires ) Furthermore No Excuse Needed has also sired 10 individual stakes placed performers, one is out of an O’Reilly mare (no surprise there) the other nine are all out of mares by non Northern Dancer line sires ! I think therefore that it is safe to conclude that one has as much chance of breeding a good horse by No Excuse Needed with or without ND in the makeup of your mare and if one has a mare by O'Reilly you have a statistically higher chance of breeding a good horse by him.
  14. Breeder I embrace the right of Swynford or anyone for that matter that is prepared to put forward and postulate their thoughts on pedigrees. It is wonderful that we have a platform here to discuss these matters and it’s good that some of these theories and observations are, whether we agree or not. I like to look at all the angles before making up my own mind about what works and is going on behind pedigrees. When we discuss and investigate openly on this forum everyone benefits in the end. What this latest example involving the results between Good Journey and daughters of O’Reilly clearly demonstrates IMO is that O’Reilly himself and not Best In Show could be the factor behind the apparent success of the pattern to date. What is also evident is that the “mirror” theory involving other related sires stemming from Best in Show is not working as well. Redoute’s Choice probably the most successful sire that is tail female to Best In Show has displayed a distinct affinity with mares by Last Tycoon whose sire Try My Best is also a member of the Best In Show family. (22% stakes winners to foals). Howeve, like Good Journey, examination of the results of mares by related sires Hurricane Sky, Spinning World, Umatilla, Xaar, Masterclass and O’Reilly have not yielded anywhere near the same results for Redoute’s Choice with only 1 stakes winner between them (27 foals of racing age, 16 starters, 15 winners and one stakes winner - Tranquillity ). Interestingly there have been just two foals out of mares by El Gran Senor and his son Al Hareb sired by Redoutes Choice.( El Gran Senor is an own brother to Try My Best). Redoute’s Choice has sired NZ Derby GR1 winner Redoutes Dancer and stakes placed Strive To Excel to this pattern. Perhaps in the case of Redoute’s Choice the catalyst may actually be Sex Appeal, a daughter of Best In Show. The advent of the computer has IMO made breeders lazy and they look to duplications and linebreeding close up on pedigree grids to make some sense in what would otherwise be a sea of names on a page. I suspect that being able to point to a duplication provides a ready and plausible answer behind the success of a horse. Duplications and colour coded patterns on a page are a source of comfort and give breeders a sense of purpose and confidence when planning a mating. The narrowing of the breed in modern times means that we are going to see more and more inbreeding, duplication (and multiplications) of certain influential horses to the extent that it will become the norm and accepted practice in the industry. Already new terminology is being coined by pedigree analysts eg “parallel line breeding”. I remember a time when “international outcross” was bandied about and “hybrid vigour” and these were terms used to explain the success of horses that were the product of bringing together geographically isolated thoroughbred populations whose local bloodlines were each quite different to the others with some commonality further back. I suppose Danehill would have been a fine example of the “international outcross” when his mainly American bloodlines took off with the Australian bloodlines laden with Star Kingdom and European elements. With the advent of shuttle sires and large commercial books of mares many sales catalogues around the world nowadays look quite similar.
  15. Two more, anyone notice a pattern ?
  16. O’Reilly is proving to be a very good broodmare sire and perhaps credit should go to him rather than being directed towards Best In Show, though the later may well have an important contributory role. O’Reilly has shown that his daughters can get stakes winners to most half decent sires. Good horses can be bred along a number of patterns especially when using high class stock. The Waikato Stud stallions O’Reilly, Pins and Savabeel serve to illustrate my point. These sires were all classy racehorses , serve quality mares and their stock are raised properly. Here are some pedigrees involving the three Waikato Stud stallions beginning with O’Reilly :-
  17. This example raises some interesting questions. Is this an affinity between Good Journey and O’Reilly specifically, is the sample size big enough , does the hypothesis of Swynfords “mirror “ breeding hold true ,in other words can the success be repeated with other stallion members of the Best In Show family. The early returns for the Good Journey x O’Reilly are encouraging but the sample size is very small and there could be other factors not being taken into consideration. Does the theory stand up ? Good Journey has produced 16 other progeny of racing age to mares by sires tracing back to Best In Show. The mares are by Spinning World, Hurricane Sky , Umatilla, Last Tycoon and Redoute’s Choice. There have been 10 of these offspring to the races for five individual winners, not one stakes winner amongst them, all minor race winners. Extrapolation of the pedigrees of these horses by Good Journey would look very similar to the example of Craft Cruiser posted above.
  18. A good result for INDY KING, thanks Tapu. Mary N' Eileen lived up to her promise and now boasts three consecutive victories from just 4 lifetime starts. She won this race with authority and looks destined for even higher honours. The second horse and distant third horse have both raced and won in stakes class company before. Below is a link for anyone interested in viewing the race. Find the Video Race Replay tab and then enter the date, and race 6. (06/08/2014) http://www.twinspires.com/partner/?partner=Indiana On Thursday the highly regarded King's Secret made his seasonal debut at Hastings and had an educational run to finish a good third to heavily backed debutant Taken The Liberty , King's Secret started from the widest alley and conceded the winner 5Kg. King's Secret looks destined to become INDY KING'S first stakes winner in New Zealand, all things being equal. There are a number of his progeny 8 or 9, in the Central districts that should get to the races leading up to Christmas and into the new year, as well as the half sister to Figure of Speech and Jack Romanov in Cambridge.
  19. Grangewilliam Studs new recruit Haradasun has sired his first Group One winner. Harry’s Son a 2 year old colt out of the Anabaa mare Dash on Ruby prevailed to win the GR1 Premier’s Champion Stakes over 1600m at Greyville South Africa by a neck over Jayyed (by Jet Master) with Anjaal (by Lonhro) a head adrift in third place. South African Group One Form translates into top class international form and lately horses such as Harry’s Son go on to compete in Dubai for the Dubai carnival in the New Year. The win by Harry’s Son follows two Gr1 third placing's this season by him in the Golden Horse Shoe (1400m) and the Gold Medallion (1200m). This win could catapult Harry’s Son to Champion 2 year old status in South Africa. This is an exciting development for Grangewilliam Stud and should generate a lot of interest in Haradasun this year.
  20. Our thoughts are with Lou and her family.
  21. Nasrullah - I bet that you will evade this invitation with some weasel words and that we will never get a specific name of a horse that you have bred. Just one please maestro, what have you got to hide ?
  22. Tapu below are photos, top left Queen Lilly Kay, top right Mindy Queen, bottom left Pleasant Prince, bottom right Indy Joe and bottom centre "wonder filly" Su Majestad