RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

Peter Harrop

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Everything posted by Peter Harrop

  1. Same but I'll be in for this one. 200k is a decent pool to chase.
  2. Yep, can't blame the NZ TAB for this one. The blocking is done at the Aussie end.
  3. I remember backing Fritz, who was trained by Neil Coulbeck at the time, in the 2000 Telegraph. Had been told it had no chance, being trained down south, which was the general consensus. Sprinted in at 18s. Can get some good overs for the right southern horse.
  4. The attendance looked bigger than most Saturday City meetings. I wonder how many there would have travelled to Hastings? I think it's easy to say close down these tracks to save costs, but I think the counter to that is the long term effects on participation in the sport.
  5. I do wonder myself how the issue of trackside broadcasting has never seen the light of day in the discussions. Between when Trackside joined Freeview in 2010 and 2014, returns to the industry rose from $121mil to $134mil ($13mil increase). In 2014 Trackside went to Sky TV. Returns since then have been $134mil (2014), $134mil, $136mil, $136mil and this year $148mil (which includes a special $12mil payment, so in real terns $136m). A real increase of just $2mil. Maybe if they'd stayed with Freeview, thus not halving the potential New Zealand audience through the move to Sky, they'd be up to $147 mil by now and with the $12mil payment $159 mil? There is the extra cost of the additional channel to consider but it shouldn't put that much of a dent in it, if anything. It's all conjecture on my part, but it seems to make sense. Does anyone know of any flaws in this argument?
  6. Can't help with the accounting, but the way I see it is that there are 3 groups. Group 1 : Breeders and owners who can see promised windfalls (some might argue short term ones) and increases in stakes, mainly through the sale of Avondale and Rotorua racecourses, plus the 'outsourcing' or 'sale' (depending on which side you're on) of the TAB. Group 2 : Punters, who couldn't give a s%$#. If they take racing away from their town, or are unable to watch it on television, they'll just do something else. Group 3 : Observers, without any financial interest in the game, but a keen interest in its success (ie Luke Radich), who maybe are more capable of seeing the wood for the trees.
  7. Unfortunately (or fortunately) I'm young enough so that my database only goes back as far as 1995
  8. Fascinated that Jamie Richards (Te Akau) won his first ride as an amateur at Oamaru in 2008. This list is created from my database. Please let me know if you know of any errors. Jockeys Who Have Won on Debut at the Races in NZ Jockey Date Track Horse 1 A SKELTON 17 May 2000 Ruakaka Top Hit 2 M BROOKS 5 Jul 2000 Pukekohe Solar Rebel 3 J TUNBRIDGE 23 Nov 2000 New Plymouth Judge Judy 4 S SAKAI 19 Jul 2001 Awapuni Sir Ryan 5 T VAN ROOYEN 2 Oct 2002 Avondale Day Tripper 6 N SINCLAIR 7 Sep 2003 Paeroa Barzulu 7 B PREBBLE 27 Sep 2003 Hastings The Dynamo 8 T HARRIS 23 Jun 2004 Ruakaka Southern Storm 9 S SCRIVEN 28 Aug 2004 Hastings Jurys Out 10 A MUNDY 29 Aug 2004 Oamaru Starkay 11 B RAWILLER 26 Feb 2005 Otaki Penitentiary 12 N COLLETT 8 Jul 2005 Ellerslie Norville Prince 13 C TETZLAFF 10 Jun 2006 Te Rapa Destinate 14 S FIELDES 3 Aug 2006 Hastings Shinko Dancer 15 R RATTLEY 18 Oct 2006 Te Aroha Shortblackmini 16 S COLLETT 7 Dec 2006 Matamata Zergar 17 J MCGUINNESS 28 Jun 2007 Waverley Enko 18 JAS COLLETT 25 Aug 2007 Ellerslie Bobby Dazzler 19 J RICHARDS 29 Aug 2008 Oamaru Never Plead Guilty 20 A DENBY 6 May 2009 Dargaville Duke 21 J ANDERSON 9 Sep 2009 Taupo Bankside Belle 22 Z PURTON 6 Mar 2010 Ellerslie Keffiya 23 C VAN DWERF 3 Apr 2010 Riverton Kimberley Boy 24 S POMARE 15 Sep 2010 Rotorua Eye Kept Him 25 D WHYTE 5 Mar 2011 Ellerslie Treasure Hunter 26 I MILLER 15 May 2011 Invercargill Theruler 27 T BARNABAS 25 Jun 2012 Rotorua The Muffin Man 28 S WYNNE 7 Sep 2012 Ashburton Pinsgold 29 K JOYCE 7 Nov 2012 Paeroa Society Ruler 30 J CHILDS 15 Aug 2013 Hawera Duffers Creek 31 M HARUKI 30 Sep 2013 Gore Five Kings 32 N TEELUCK 17 Oct 2013 Woodville The Rahtwo Rebel 33 T ABEL 27 Dec 2014 Rotorua Crimson Prince 34 S HIGGINS 4 May 2016 Riverton Revenge 35 T NEWMAN 25 Feb 2017 Matamata Massofdash 36 P MOLONEY 1 Dec 2017 Otaki Bocce 37 B ALLEN 13 Dec 2017 Ellerslie Lily The Pink 38 K CHOWDHOORY 8 Apr 2018 Pukekohe Cinematic 39 W PINN 12 May 2018 New Plymouth London Express 40 C BURDAN 27 Sep 2018 Waipukurau Lady Zeraph
  9. Reading some of the stuff online, when looking at outsourcing of gambling to an overseas operator, consideration needs to be given to the perceptions this will feed to the public about punting. The general public might see it as a sell out of sovereignty and look at gambling less favourably.
  10. Has anyone else noticed how the stagnant revenue returns since 2014 coincides with Trackside's move from Freeview to Sky?
  11. Maybe they figure it's a way of getting around the Aussie legislation that forbids Aussies betting on the NZ TAB. It might benefit punters if it leads to bigger pool sizes and lower takeout rates. From a selfish point of view though, this might be countered by having 3 synthetic tracks. This would surely make form more difficult to follow and may honestly mean giving up punting altogether, for me.
  12. The seemingly 'safe' nags are often the worst bets because they are usually at unders in the market. I reckon.
  13. Here's the updated list of retired and current horses with their number of NZ wins, Most New Zealand Wins Since 1979 (Complete) Horse First Win Last Win Wins 1 A GORDON FOR ME 1990 1999 26 2 OUR GENES 2005 2013 25 3 COVERED N GREY 1993 1999 24 4 EL CHICO 2008 2016 24 5 CATERING KING 1985 1992 23 6 OCEAN GUARD 1982 1990 23 7 SIR SLICK 2004 2010 22 8 SWEENEY TODD 1979 1985 22 9 BULGINBAAH 2004 2011 22 10 LORD ZIRITO 1986 1995 21 11 COMMISSIONAIRE 1981 1985 21 12 CHIBUKU 1985 1991 20 13 MICKEYS TOWN 1986 1992 20 14 VINCERE 1981 1989 20 15 PINNACLE 1991 1997 20 16 OVERTHERIVER 2013 2018 20 Most New Zealand Wins 1945-79 (Incomplete) Horse First Win Last Win Wins 1 GREY WAY 1974 1979 50 2 KUMAI 1960 1969 34 3 SHOW GATE 1973 1977 30 4 PICAROON 1956 1964 28 5 GLADAUB 1962 1969 27 6 STRAD 1969 1976 27 7 ZING 1971 1981 27 8 KORAL 1964 1972 26 9 BATTLE EVE 1973 1979 26 10 TIME AND TIDE 1965 1972 26 11 GAME 1966 1972 26 12 TATUA 1961 1970 26 13 COGITATION 1950 1958 25 14 COUNT KERERU 1968 1978 25 15 PALISADE 1961 1969 25 16 KALGOORLIE 1967 1974 25 17 RED CHIPS 1966 1972 23 18 SOMERSET FAIR 1954 1957 23 19 CABRIERE 1960 1969 23 20 LOCH LINNHE 1971 1979 23 21 LA MER 1976 1979 23 22 TRELAY 1969 1973 23 23 ORANMORE 1975 1981 23 24 MAINBRACE 1949 1951 23 25 ROBERT CRAIG 1949 1957 23 26 COPPER BELT 1974 1979 23 27 EXECUTE 1970 1975 23 28 HI ROONA 1975 1982 22 29 CLOUDY LEASE 1975 1982 22 30 JANS BEAU 1969 1976 22 31 SHIFNAL CHIEF 1972 1979 22 32 SEVEN FORTY SEVEN 1972 1979 22 33 COMPENSATE 1956 1965 21 34 DAMAR 1964 1972 21 35 SHARDA 1967 1976 21 36 ROCHDALE 1959 1967 21 37 ETTRICK 1964 1971 21 38 TADPOLE 1958 1965 21 39 WATALLAN 1966 1974 21 40 THE HOB 1948 1957 20 41 AYUB KHAN 1968 1976 20 42 DUTY FREE 1968 1976 20 43 WHAKAMOA 1964 1973 20 44 FLYING TRIX 1961 1968 20 45 GREAT SENSATION 1958 1963 20 46 BLUE NILE 1968 1975 20 47 MIDDY 1964 1970 20 48 CANDYBOY 1975 1981 20 Current and Recent Performers 12-19 Wins Horse First Win Last Win Wins 1 INDIKATOR 2006 2014 18 2 SCAPOLO 2013 2018 17 3 THATZ DAVID 2010 2017 16 4 ALL SPICE 2008 2017 16 5 TOMMY TUCKER 2012 2018 16 6 KING MONTROSE 2009 2016 15 7 KAWI 2013 2017 15 8 I DO 2011 2014 15 9 BACK IN BLACK 2008 2014 14 10 NASHVILLE 2011 2017 14 11 JOHN GRAY 2008 2016 14 12 SAINT EMILION 2015 2018 14 13 BORRACK 2007 2014 13 14 NOBLE WARRIOR 2010 2015 13 15 OUR BEE JAY 2009 2015 13 16 SPIN DOCTOR 2010 2015 13 17 SEA KING 2011 2017 13 18 ANTONIO LOMBARD 2010 2016 13 19 BRAGATO 2008 2014 13 20 WAIT A SEC 2014 2018 13 21 CAPE KINAVERAL 2006 2014 12 22 DANZA LAD 2012 2017 12 23 HIGH FORTY 2010 2015 12 24 IAMISHWARA 2012 2015 12 25 MATOST 2008 2016 12 26 THENAMESBOND 2012 2017 12 27 ALPINE HEIGHTS 2010 2015 12 28 SUPERTURF 2010 2015 12 29 COMANCHE GOLD 2011 2016 12 30 SUCRE 2012 2015 12
  14. Everything was wrong about them to be honest. From the quantity and presentation, to the luke warmness and sogginess. There are some great vendors of chips at racetracks. The caravan at Ellerslie, the caravan at Avondale, the caravan at Taupo, the ones at Te Aroha. The common denominator is that the good ones are cooked in blindingly hot oil, are crispy and served fresh. However, the racing was good on a surprisingly not so heavy track. It had been raining heavily this morning.
  15. Here are my chips from Te Rapa today. I got 20 chips for $4.50 in a white paper bag. Thats 22.5c for each chip. A bargain!
  16. True. It has been upgraded to Dead 4 now but am hanging out for some Good 3 tracks. Just my opinion, of course, and going by the times, maybe the track is better than the official reading.
  17. Well, that may be the case. But I think Good 3 tracks are what most excites the punters and offers the best racing.
  18. Has everyone's thinking changed so much that a Dead 5 is now labelled a perfect track? Nooooooo .... Good 3 is a perfect track.
  19. My opinion too. I think it would make very little difference if Woodville was irrigated or not. It seems very few meetings are going ahead when there is rain about, irrigated or not.
  20. Hope all this makes sense. Ive been keeping records of race times since 1995. I decided to have a look at the fastest 100 times run in NZ over 1200m, 1400m, 1600m and 2000m from those 22 years. Then I counted up the number of instances where a time from the last 3 years (2015-2017) appears on each of those Top 100's. All things being equal, there should be, on average, 13.6 entries from the 2015-17 period on each Top 100 (ie 3 years divided by 22 years). This is what I found : 1200 metres : 9 of the top 100 from 2015-17 (should be 13.6 of the top 100) 1400m : 7 out of 100 1600m : 12 out of 100 2000m : 6 out of 100 Counting up all 4 distances and the fastest 100 times of each, there are 34 fast times from the last 3 years when there should be 54. There is evidence that recorded times over the last 3 years have got slower. So, is this down to increased irrigation, or some other factor? Maybe the difference is due to changes in the way races are electronically timed?