RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

chiknsmack

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Posts posted by chiknsmack

  1. Two for Belardo, who stood at 10k last season. One for Telperion, who was at 6k last season. Two for Proisir, who five years ago (when his two were conceived) was considerably cheaper than 70k.

    Maybe not quite as bad as it looks. There are other Telperion and Belardo-level horses at stud today, and maybe even a Proisir or two who will break into the top five in five years' time.

    Sweynesse is underrated.

  2. 3 hours ago, Shad said:

    In my book everyone deserves a second chance

    I struggle with this one. On the one hand I agree with giving everyone a chance at redemption, but on the other hand I think people who abuse children or animals deserve a bullet. I guess I have to settle with not trusting him with any of my horses and thinking less of people like Waller and Lovett who take the stance of "Yeah he's an animal abuser, but he might have stopped now and he gets results".

  3. 13 hours ago, stodge said:

    We had an incident in the Dash at the Epsom Derby meeting where part of the stall set opened fractionally late. 

    Now this is a 1000m race run in 56 seconds and you can see the gates didn't open simultaneously. Nonetheless, the race wasn't voided and the result stood. I recall some bookies offered refunds on bets struck on those horses whose gates opened late.

    Here any of the horses whose gates didn't open on time and who didn't finish in a dividend-bearing position (ie. Top 4) would be declared a late scratching.

    I had a bet last month in a similar situation (barrier attendant was still holding onto the horse's head when the gates opened) but unfortunately he finished 4th so no scratching/refund. Daffodil famously didn't have her gate open in the NZ Oaks but still ran home for 4th, then went on to win the Australian Oaks.

  4. 22 hours ago, Leggy said:

    It was top 10 as of 30/11. Nothing lucky about it.

    Top ten by prizemoney. Is that the best way to judge the ten "biggest" trainers (as opposed to, say, number of winners) in a race where the idea is to give the little guys a day in the sun?

    I doubt the Walker/Tata team will be complaining; they're too busy enjoying the horse of a lifetime. Though in reality they're just the type of "little guys" the race was designed for.

  5. I almost posted about this at his last start. George called him "I'll Have A Se-milly-on" at the trials up North, and Tony followed suit on debut but I think he knew better (the first time he called it in that race was "I'll Have A *pause* Se-milly-on").

    There was an unfortunate turn of phrase from Tony today; "to the high school corner, I'll Hava Semillon..."

  6. I’ll preface this by saying that I’m absolutely talking through my kick. And I’m not really one to bash jockeys, I never was a jockey, I couldn’t do better myself, and all that jazz. But I expected something completely different than I got.

     

    Race 3 at Invercargill: https://loveracing.nz/Common/SystemTemplates/Modal/Video.aspx?v=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.racingreplays.co.nz%2Fmedia%2F202311%2FM6_STHL_R03_221123.mp4&i=%2FCommon%2FImage.ashx%3Fw%3D720%26h%3D400%26a%3D1%26o%3D1%26bg%3Deeeeee%26p%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.racingreplays.co.nz%2Fmedia%2F202311%2FM6_STHL_R03_221123.jpg&r=Race 3 - MCCALLUMS GROUP MAIDEN&rs=1

     

    Miss Pearl, second favourite. Drawn 14 on a turning track, but has been on the pace in all three starts this prep so the lack of horses drawn outside her only means she’ll have a clean jump from the gates and will be able to slide forward to sit handy again. She is also up in trip, meaning she’s been in faster-run races her past three starts and so is even more likely to have an early speed advantage and land on the pace.

    #7, in the purple silks.

     

    Jumps only average but quickly into stride and for the first four strides looks like she’s going to follow the 9 & 12 forward to eventually roll past them and land handy to the pace as expected. Then the jockey takes hold and drags her back to second-last, three wide, with the horse fighting to go faster at the 1200m.

    Under a heavy hold, gets one-off in second-last, with the horse still pulling and getting her head up just shy of the 1000m..

    Still under a hold, pushed out three wide to the 800m.

    Pulls out four wide and looks to be trucking into it, until the jockey then takes a hard hold again just before the 600m and drags her back to last, three wide. The horse that was last (#1) has now come around her to start circling the field.

    At the 400m looks like she’s being pulled up. The #1 horse is now six wide, 2L in front of her, and winding up.

    At the 300m the jockey pulls hard left to drag her down to the fence. She’s now last, five back on the fence, with no momentum. (The #1 horse is wide and midfield but running on).

    At the 200m she’s midfield on the inside with nowhere to go, still under a hold (or if being generous, not being asked for an effort). The #1 is widest of all and peaking on its run a touch.

    She then jogs to the line, having to be restrained at the 50m to avoid getting onto heels, and is beaten only 4L while having not gotten out of second gear. The #1, who was longer in the market, peaked on his run late but still beat her 2L.

     

    -------------

     

    Looking back to the first few strides of the race, a positive ride could’ve seen her run outside the #12 horse (which was eventually restrained to be wide in midfield) before sliding past it to be either three-wide no cover or one-out two-back at the 1000m. That would have taken no more energy out of the horse than she used fighting the jockey, would’ve seen her a lot closer to the pace, and would’ve left her free to make a run whenever she wanted (as opposed to never making a run, as she did).

    Am I wrong to expect a positive ride from a senior jockey on a second-favourite who maps to lead? Is fighting your horse all the way until pulling it back to last five-back on the fence at the 400m giving your horse every possible chance to win? Should I just stop betting on South Island racing and watch lack of punter confidence lead to the death of the industry south of Wellington?

    Again, I’m not knocking the jockey in general (I knew who was riding when I placed my bet, and in fact took confidence from the fact that the jockey is top 10 in the country this season on strikerate (from jockeys with at least 100 rides) and so is well above average in the SI riding ranks). But in my view a horse that should’ve won was ridden completely backwards and incredibly negatively, and didn’t win. And I’m a little salty about it.

  7. On 11/8/2023 at 12:57 PM, Ohokaman said:

    I thought one of the runs of the race was Interpretation coming from last.

    Agreed. I went looking for a market for next year's cup after watching a couple of replays, but the TAB only have a Caulfield Cup market up so far (with no Interpretation).

    Sportsbet offering 51 & 14 for Interpretation next year.

  8. Word is that the guy who had the $200 (actually $199.92) bet was already a multi, so a massive collect but not quite as good a story as old mate living in a garage.

    Well done though to the guy who owned a share in two placegetters. Plenty of people dream of having one runner in their life.

     

  9. 6 hours ago, Ponderosa8 said:

    Ladies Man still listed as 25th in order so Allan Sharrock really in a tough spot. Wait and hope that a few drop out, or does he need a hit-out anyway and run him on Saturday regardless

     

    “The Lexus isn’t the goal, it’s the Cup obviously but he can have a good look at Flemington and get a feel for the crowd before Tuesday,” Sharrock said.

    “There was one wise old trainer who always raced them on the Saturday and then the Cup and that was Bart Cummings, so I don’t see any problem with it.

    “He can pull a little bit in his races, so a run on Saturday will just take that edge off him, it should work out well.”

    https://loveracing.nz/News/42933/PositivereportsflowingonKiwiMelbourneCuphope.aspx

  10. Hi all. Got a response from the RIB today. I won't be sharing it verbatim, but the reason Jasmine Fawcett was able to ride on October 21 (in the middle of a period during which she was suspended) is that she was booked to ride in the Sweynesse at Rotorua before her suspension started, it was postponed until the WTR meeting at Te Rapa on the 21st, and so she was allowed to ride at Te Rapa.

     

    "Rule 1106 (3) Each suspension of a Rider from riding in Races, which is imposed under these Rules by an Adjudicative Committee otherwise than during any day of a Race Meeting shall take effect as follows: (a) if, at the time the suspension is imposed, the Rider has no engagements to ride a horse in a Race during the next ten day period after that day, from the day the suspension is imposed; or (b) if, at the time the suspension is imposed, the Rider is engaged to ride a horse or horses in a Race(s) during the next ten day period after that day, then from the earlier of:

    (i) the completion of such engagements within that ten day period; or

    (ii) the completion of that ten day period

    provided that, if any race for which the Rider has an engagement within the ten day period is postponed for any reason, the Rider may fulfill that engagement on the day to which the engagement is postponed and may take engagements for any other races on that day. The dates of the suspension imposed by the Adjudicative Committee will not be affected, irrespective of whether the Rider fulfills a postponed engagement, or not. [Amended 3 October 2023]"

     

    This is a brand new amendment to the rules, so it's the first time it's come up.