RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

chiknsmack

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Everything posted by chiknsmack

  1. I could've sworn I read about one of the V stallions (Vespa or Verdi) moving to Oz, and wondering why they'd want him. But I can't find it now.
  2. Surely the Warriors strip would be for the #9 dog, since they never make the eight.
  3. The NZTAB copies Sportsbet prices (and vice versa on NZ racing), so a mistake by one of them leads to the wrong price on both. Usually it happens when they cock up the opening prices (eg. putting up the prices for Race 1 in the market for Race 2, and usually any bets on those incorrect markets get cancelled), but this case is interesting in that the opening markets look correct (at least to what the bookie who framed it intended) but then prices swung wildly on three runners before reverting back. Is there a world where a Sportsbet bookie fiddled with the prices to let their mates on a $1.15 shot at $8? Maybe (we've had that happen with the NZTAB before). Is there a world where this was intentional market manipulation by a punter (smash the 3 and the 6 to force the price of the 1 out, then smash the 1, then cancel the bets on 3&6)? Maybe, but you'd think the bookies would look at the US markets and Betfair if they were trading the race manually, and not change their prices. Is it the Sportsbet market management software glitching for one reason or another? Also maybe, and probably the most likely answer. Funky things can happen on smaller markets from time to time. The TAB rules say they can cancel bets - even after the event - if they've "made a mistake". And their definition of making a mistake is so generous that they can basically cancel any bets for any reason at any time, with your only recourse being taking them to court. Well done for getting on and getting paid, and hopefully the TAB don't now cancel the bet and leave your account with a negative balance so you can't use it ever again without giving back the money first.
  4. His first SH crop are 3yos; he's had 81 foals for 42 runners, 18 winners, 1 SW (Leedox). Eight of his 87 SH 2yos have run for three winners, with a Gr. 3 placing in Oz. He's going better up north with five SWs and a Gr. 1 placegetter (his first crop are now 4yos), and his best one Crypto Force is a 3yo who beat English 2000 Guineas/Derby fave Auguste Rodin on debut. Crypto Force hasn't been seen since his Gr. 2 win last September, but looks to still hold noms for the Irish Guineas & Derby. He's leaving horses which seem to mature early and get a mile (but are fine sprinting, and potentially in time can get further like he did at 4) which should suit the market. Great pedigree too. And his third SH crop (current yearlings) will be his biggest yet. He hasn't established himself as quality yet (hence the unchanged stud fee) but there's promise there, and it's too early to call him a dud IMO.
  5. I was on second and third and was surprised looking at the head on that there wasn't a protest 2nd vs 1st. The outside horse was laying in but McNab was doing enough to straighten it out IMO (had it run straight all the way it won by a length plus). The inside horse came out sharply late on though and knocked the other two off balance right before the post which, given the margin of 2nd vs 1st was a nostril, would maybe be enough to switch the first two placings. The 3rd horse went past the winner halfway down before the winner fought back, so "protest dismissed because the 3rd horse wasn't going to win anyway" makes sense. But 2nd vs 1st would've been interesting. Also, the "Joe Kamaruddin leaning over" looked more to me like "Joe and his horse heading right, then the horse stopping its rightward movement because it's bumped into another horse, while Joe keeps moving right because he hasn't bumped into anything".
  6. They'll just move the betting sponsors to the shoulders (or the back below the numbers, like a Liga MX shirt with no wasted space), and that will become the most lucrative sponsor spot because the gambling operators are the biggest spenders.
  7. I believe has had had shares in more than six horses. So yes, he has had some unsuccessful ones. In other news, the sun rose in the east today.
  8. Kate Hercock goes alright I guess. (Just a casual four winners today for a CD jock the day after I bagged the lot of them.) That said, her SR has been around 12 the past two seasons after being worse before that. Lisa Allpress has had a strike rate better than 7 for seven straight years (it's 8.5 this year, but as mentioned earlier her season has ended with a surgery which could explain the drop in form).
  9. A shrewd pickup. He's the only son of Vinnie in NZ and he has one of our better 2yos (pretty much guaranteed to be a Gr. 1 winner once Tokyo Tycoon's positive is dealt with) in his first crop. He's not massively exciting on paper beyond that (Ulanova is his only winner, though half of the other ten to race have placed) but there's a spot in the market for a precocious stallion from that sireline. He hasn't gotten the early numbers to be attractive in Queensland but his best one is very good over here. So it's great move for everyone involved.
  10. Comignaghi. Then Williams and Chowdhoory. Then daylight. Then Lowry and Khetoo. Then a sack of kumara. Then the rest. Allpress (better than Comignaghi) and Fawcett (somewhere in the daylight) had been going well this season when down south. Allpress' absence is felt in the south and in the CD, where she has a hundred yards on the rest. Though at least some Northern jockeys travel down to most CD meetings to add some quality and depth.
  11. I'd say losing to DH on a H10 would do nothing - positive OR negative - to his stud career. If they're targeting Ascot then the danger of bottoming him out on a bottomless track might not be worth the risk. "No Deductions No Surprises" makes DH (and the rest of the field) look a pretty obvious bet if you think they might scratch Anamoe. Though it sounds like you've priced DH red odds even with Anamoe in the field so should've unloaded already.
  12. I can't believe you've all missed the Sweenz Quote of the Week. After Pignan - part owned by Christian Cullen - wins the Sires, Sweenz comes out with "What a moment. Christian Cullen used to fly out on the racetrack, well, toadies had a horse do him. Wonderful wonderful things". I don't know if "toadies" was supposed to be "today he's", or if he was begging Tony Lee for help removing his foot from his mouth. I'm going to assume he doesn't think Christian Cullen the champion pacer from the 90s (who ACTUALLY used to fly out on the racetrack) is the part-owner of Pignan, but that's mainly because I already feel bad enough about the stick he's getting here.
  13. My mates in Oz weren't getting paid out either initially; it took about half an hour. Word was that there may have been a protest over 4th, but I can't see it mentioned in the Stewards' Report.
  14. The runner-up Virtuous Circle was outside Sharp 'N' Smart at the 600. The REAL losing of the race (not jockey error, just bad luck) is Mark Twain and Manzoice stopping/being outsprinted in front of him at the top of the straight. Virtuous Circle peeled out six wide before the straight and was given full bore. Sharp 'N' Smart had to wait for him to go, then peel off the back of the horses in front of him, before making his run. Sharp 'N' Smart was taking plenty of ground off the first two late. I disagree with the "he didn't handle the track" comment above, and also the idea that the fence was off. The winner was osl before rolling down to the rail in the straight. The third horse was making up big ground late up the inside. He himself got home well late, not like a horse who didn't handle the ground. As it worked out, Sharp 'N' Smart was fifth-last (give or take) at the 400, with no momentum, having been 3- and 4-wide from the 1000. With hindsight he could've been in a similar spot at the 400 had he gone back to dead last (with a lot less effort), but hindsight is 20:20.
  15. Stunning Maire in Race 6 just looks the wrong price to me. Placed at her first two runs this prep before lto being wide and having to work to get osl before fading. Drawn the ace today she should lead or trail with very little effort. She's already $16 into $12, but I still think she should be half that (I prefer her head to head vs Trieste or Nigella Lane, who are $5 and $6 respectively). Didn't find much else. Rightly So can get a soft lead in R5. Zantabulous is rightly favourite in R8 but I thought Stylish Officer ($7.50 into $5) and Dragon Biscuit ($18) were dangers. I agree with Pete on Joyful Winkle in the last, though all four faves are good chances there.
  16. Now extended to the end of the season (11:59pm Monday 31 July, 2023) https://www.tab.co.nz/punters/tab-news/offers/no-deductions-no-surprises
  17. "GENTLE MAC - Broke at the start losing ground. A final warning was placed on the barrier record of the gelding. Authorisation of 1st placing was withheld until the Stewards were satisfied the gelding had complied with the Breaking Horses Regulation."
  18. Green, yellow diamond, drawn wide. Not sure what else the driver could've done to be honest, but I also don't know the rules around breaking.
  19. The inside four or five metres looks off down the straight at Pukekohe. We've had a couple of leaders trail, pop out at the 400m and look to be jogging, only to do nothing. Savanoski led up, was intentionally steered a few widths off the rail down the straight, and nearly got run down by a horse who was wider out. A couple of other people have mentioned it on Trackside. I'm looking to halve my bets for the rest of the day, and I'm going back to the form to look more closely at horses who map back and wide (which typically I'm against) who can end up in the better ground 5-10m off the fence in the straight.
  20. Pukekohe R8 6-8 Pukekohe R9 2-13 BB Rosehill R2 1-4 Rosehill R4 1-6 Rosehill R6 7-8 Rosehill R7 4-16 Rosehill R8 1-9 Flemington R3 1-3 Flemington R4 1-11 Flemington R5 3-4 Flemington R7 4-9 Flemington R8 1-4 BB Thanks and good luck all.
  21. Wellington R1 No bet. Can't get too excited with the small field but there should still be a decent pace. R2 Can't get too excited... small field... decent pace. 1 Challa 5u @ 4.5. R3 A slighty bigger field, again should be a good pace. Six runners at or below $6.50, you can back three of them and still make okay money. I'm with Express Yourself and Meglio di Falcrest who should be on the pace from wide draws, and on the off chance they overdo it up front I'm with favourite Sumi too (though the inside draw could be a negative. I trust N Parmar to figure it out). 10 Express Yourself 7u @ 6.5, 2 Meglio di Falcrest 8u @ 5.5, 6 Sumi 12u @ 4 (Boosted). R4 No bet. Vespacian could get a soft lead so that'd be my pick. R5 No bet. Flying Meg and Scutar on top from Princess Ani and The True Believer. R6 No bet. Five runners $5 or shorter. You could back any two and still make money, and if I were to do so I'd go with McKhan and Gucci Belt. I'd be against Tobias. R7 I've found Kelly Coe again; six weeks between runs I expect she'll go forward with Love For All. 6 Kelly Coe 10u @ 3, 7 Love For All 5u @ 5. Lightning Jack the big danger. R8 Strange Love should land handy from the ace draw and is my best bet at Trentham on a quiet day. King of Hearts should also be thereabouts. 11 Strange Love 8u @ 6, 1 King of Hearts 6u 4.2.
  22. Pukekohe - Race 4: Karman Line Pukekohe - Race 10: Astron
  23. Pukekohe R1 Even field. I'm taking on Privileged Son in particular. 2 (Double O'Seven) 10u @ 4, 7 Selva Verde 5u @ 7, 8 Avalene 3u @ 6, 3 Amalfi Prince 1u @ 12. R2 No bet. Insatiable on top but Mister Roshan and Dignitosa are clear dangers. If any of them drift I could find a bet on some/all of them but not at the current prices. There are worse 60/1 shots than Kiva Han. R3 Savanoski obviously a strong chance - I won't be picking it in LGL - but I'm going wih the joint-second faves. 2 Mascarinto 5u @ 4.5, 8 Dubai Diva 5u @ 4.5. R4 Worried about Clever Ruds maybe getting a very soft lead. I might save on her. The two on top are 1 Dragon Queen 9u @ 3.2 and 6 Saint Alice 3u @ 7. R5 No bet. I love Tokyo Tycoon and with the small field he shouldn't have much ground to make up from the back, though Ethereal Star has plenty of things in her favour too. The boosted odds quinella at $2.20 is probably the play. R6 Taking on Freeze Frame fifth-up in his first prep, though I do love a horse with blinkers on first time. Going with the other two faves, 4 It's Business Time 12u @ 2.7, 3 Paul David 6u @ 4.8. R7 El Vencedor has placed in his past four and I've backed him in a couple of those. He maps to get a soft lead so I'm on again. Synchronize will be handy and I have him as one of Craig Grylls' best chances - along with Paul David - for those of you taking the "Grylls 2+ winners" bet (I'm against Karman Line/Ladies Man/La Crique/Astron; without having looked hard at Oz yet the chances are my LGL picks are from those four). Thunder was backed in from $12 to $7 (has drifted a touch since) and can also land handy to the slow pace. 7 El Vencedor 11u @ 4.8, 12 Synchronize 11u @ 4.2, 5 Thunder 2u @ 8.5. R8 I'd love to see La Crique back to her best but I don't think she's come up this prep. She was late scratched first up with the heavy track which will have messed with her prep a bit, and she's up in trip against horses who come through the Herbie Dyke or similar. I'm with 8 Prowess 22u @ 2.8 (Boosted), with an interest in 6 Campionessa 4u @ 5.5. R9 We all know the rule that 3200m form is the best form for 3200m races. All the 3200m form is with the top seven in the book (bar Nerve Not Verve) and it's reasonably solid. That said Aquacade looks quality, and is flying, and most of the others will be giving her a headstart. I'll break the rule and hopefully Aquacade is good enough that I can get away with it. 13 Aquacade 20u @ 2.7. R10 The leaders are all outside the market (Brian Lamont the shortest of them at $15 and he's a bet). Humboldt will be handy, was unlucky lto after a good win on debut, and has a run at the trip under his belt. 7 Humboldt 4u @ 7.5, 3 Brian Lamont 1u @ 15.
  24. If you want good fields for 3200m races, you need plenty of 24/28/3200m races throughout the season at all levels to give people a reason to breed/race 3200m horses. Or you need to throw money at the problem to get foreign horses to show up (like a $500k appearance fee for any horse who ran in the Melbourne Cup who also runs in the Auckland or Wellington Cups, or a $10m bonus for winning the Wellington/Auckland Cup double). If your typical meeting is four sprints, two miles, and two 2000m races, you'll end up with a racing population of roughly 50% sprinters, 25% milers, 25% 2000m horses, and no 2400m+ horses. The few 2400m+ horses (or 3200m specialists) you DO get will be lowly-rated because they're not fast enough to get through the grades running over 2000m.
  25. They are running four maidens between 1100m and 1400m. There were double- and triple-noms everywhere. In theory they were fields of 13, 14, 16, & 16 (59 entries) but in reality it was closer to 40 individual horses across four fields. Greyhounds have different stakes as you move up in grade and up in distance, reflecting the fact that punters want to bet on better dogs (proven/more consistent form) and longer races (luck is less of a factor). I've thought for a while that thoroughbreds should do the same, while also rewarding the added variable of field size. A R75 should have a higher purse than a R65 with the same field size and at the same distance. A R75 mile should have a bigger purse than a R75 1200m. And a 10-horse field should have a larger purse than a seven-horse field. I don't know the exact weightings I'd give to each variable to determine purse sizes, and I don't know how you'd account for scratchings (eg. if that 3yo Mdn had 14 entries and so a $14k purse, what do you do when there are nine scratchings? Run it for $5k? Still run it for $14k (which encourages trainers to enter horses with no intent of running, which is pointless). Charge a $1k (or $500) scratching fee to prop up the purse? Greyhounds get around this by not allowing scratchings without a vet certificate or a significant change in track conditions (eg. good at acceptances, heavy on raceday), so you're not scratching because you don't like the box/barrier or because there's another runner you're scared of.