RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

chiknsmack

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Everything posted by chiknsmack

  1. When I posted it still said your post had been made "Just Now". The game was already going. I don't think my post was 13 minutes later like it says now, but I was mostly taking the piss anyway. At one point not long after I posted (while the game was on) the odds were almost identical on both sites, with the NZTAB being a touch worse on both sides.
  2. $2.24 now on Sportsbet. That's what happens when you bet on the game live: prices change.
  3. No, that isn't it. Look at Race 1 at Te Aroha on Wednesday. Horse 1, Runsavy, has had three career starts. When you look at its form on different surfaces, only two starts (on Good tracks) show up. Why? Because the other one was on a Dead track, but the TAB site doesn't show the Dead track stats (it shows the Slow track stats under both "Slow" and "Dead"). Same with the next horse down. Six total starts, four on Good tracks listed correctly, two on Dead tracks not listed. Go to the Extended Form for the race, the surface stats are correct.
  4. Something I've only just noticed is that, when you click on the silks in the form to see more stats on the horse, the dead track and slow track stats are the same. You need to open the Extended Form (the style from the old site) to see the true dead and slow stats.
  5. When you place the bet, the boxes you click on to place it have the fixed odds price of each horse in them. After placing the bet, these prices don't show up in your Pending Bets. (I placed one for $1 to check). When you win, I presume you'll be paid out at tote pries like a traditional All Up. (I'll try to win one today to find out). You can still include quinellas in an All Up. But the TAB don't offer fixed odds quinellas. More evidence that All Ups are placed on the tote.
  6. 1. Te Rapa R4 : 2.10pm - 4, 6 2. Te Rapa R5 : 2.45pm - 6, 11 3. Warwick Farm R1 : 2.50pm - 1, 3 Q 4. Caulfield R2 : 3.10pm - 3, 7 BB 5. Caulfield R3 : 3.45pm - 4, 6 6. Te Rapa R7 : 3.55pm - 1, 7 Q 7. Caulfield R4 : 4.20pm - 1, 3 8. Te Rapa R8 : 4.30pm - 4, 9 9. Warwick Farm R4 : 4.40pm - 1, 6 BB 10. Caulfield R5 : 4.55pm - 2, 5 11. Caulfield R6 : 5.30pm - 1, 5 12. Warwick Farm R6 : 5.50pm - 5, 9 13. Caulfield R7 : 6.10pm - 5, 7 14. Caulfield R8 : 6.50pm - 6, 9 15. Caulfield R9 : 7.30pm - 4, 5
  7. No worries. I didn't mean this as a criticism of you, or anyone. It's just that, if you're going to categorize customers as professional/sophisticated/sharps vs recreational/less sophisticated/mugs, people who would take All Ups (or tote bets in general, where they have no idea what price they'll receive) would fall into the second group. In Australia the corporate bookies like to ban people who they think are in the first group and encourage betting from people in the second. You'd think the TAB would be the same, but the redesign seems to be pushing people into fixed odds and sport, and away from the tote. I agree with you 100%. That said, I've only just found this. It seems to work like it should.
  8. It looks like tote All Ups aren't available anymore (which is dumb from the TAB's point of view; the tote takeout is bigger than the FF takeout, the liability is minimized because the live All Up bets are rolled into the tote pool which depresses the odds of the All Up horse, and All Ups are generally popular with less sophisticated (/losing) punters). To place a fixed odds multi you click on the fixed odds price of each of the horses you want to back. This adds them to your betslip. Once you've selected all of the runners, you can go to your betslip, click the "More info and options" dropdown under each runner and tick the box that says "Add to multi". You can then back them all as one multi, or put different stakes on the doubles than you do on all three (for example), or take one of the preset mixed multis like a Trixie (All 3, any 2), Patent (All 3, any 2, any 1), Yankee (All 4, any 3, any 2) and so on. The Potential Returns will show as $0 for fixed odds bets until you put a stakes in the boxes for the various bets. The odds for the bet can be seen above the box where you enter your stake. The Potential Returns will say N/A for tote bets, because there's no way for the TAB to know what your returns will be on tote bets because of the variable prices.
  9. His signature win was the Andrew Ramsden at 3200m, 10 years ago. It's only recently that 3200m horses (mainly Melbourne Cup runners like Shocking, Americain and Fiorente) have been considered as usable stallions. That might be a bit misleading as to what kind of a horse he was though; he was a 2yo winner at 1200m, and was among the top 4 or 5 in the big races in both the spring and autumn of his 3yo years. A 2 year+ break in the middle of his career wouldn't have helped, nor would retiring him to a small stud (with corresponding small marketing budget and broodmare band) as an old horse who only won two stakes races.
  10. FF win and place bets are refunded if scratched. That's why there are deductions from FF prices when there are any scratchings after you placed the bet. FO (futures, non-final field) win and place bets have no refunds for scratchings (they are "All-In" markets). A win or place bet wouldn't be switched to another horse. It's could be a weird screwup in the new system, or more likely a weird screwup by your neighbour trying to figure out the new system and backing the wrong horse.
  11. I'm in. Everything's loading quickly now that I am. So at least I can confirm the new website exists. It actually looks pretty good at first glance.
  12. I mostly agree, except that the more horses you have in a race the more betting you have. So just by showing up a horse has helped boost turnover, so it deserves a slice of the pie. Maybe having the code body cover all drivers' fees and not charge nomination fees is a better way to give all horses (and their owners) a share of the code revenue which they helped earn. You could call it Free Racing or something.
  13. You're doing better than me. I can't even get the site to load.
  14. Some Aussie bookies have money back offers on some races, where you back a horse to win and if it runs 2nd or 3rd they'll return your stake as a bonus bet. It's a great offer for all concerned; it decreases the rate of loss of the mug punters who chase these bonuses (they back a loser but get a free hit for later in the day), it attracts the mug punters to that particular bookie, and it boosts the bookie's hold on the race to help balance out the big bets they'll take from the sharper punters. It would be great to see the NZTAB steal the idea and do it themselves. The previews of the new online platform do include bonus bets, so maybe they will. Of course, this is the same TAB who tried to match the $500 signup bonus offers from offshore bookies with their own $20 signup bonus, so I may be hoping for too much. Anyway, the TAB ARE doing their own, weaker version of this with their "TFC Special". Instead of doing it on multiple races (eg. the first four at both Te Rapa and Awapuni tomorrow), you're limited to just one race (Awapuni R7). And instead of being able to back any horse you'd like, the special only applies to Contessa Vanessa. And instead of giving you her current FF price if she wins, you get a reduced price ($8.50 instead of $12). You do get the money back as cash instead of as a bonus bet, so they're at least doing something right. If there weren't already enough problems with the "special", here's another one. You could put $50 on Contessa Vanessa in their special market at $8.50, get $425 if she wins, and get your $50 back if she runs 2nd or 3rd. OR, you could put $35 a win and $15 a place on her at her current FF quote of $12 and $3.4. You'd get $471 if she wins (35*12=420, 15*3.4=51, 420+51=471), and $51 if she runs 2nd or 3rd. So, their "special" market is so "generous" that you're $46 better off if she wins, or $1 better off if she runs 2nd or 3rd, by putting on the same type of bet (money back for 2nd or 3rd) via the FF market instead of the special market. Surely if a supermarket was selling something for $5, and advertising a special deal where you could get it for $6, they'd be in some trouble if they tricked anyone into paying the $6. So what's the story here?
  15. Jockey X rode both Horse A and Horse B at their last starts. Today he's riding Horse B. Can punters assume that it is because he/his advisors think Horse B has the best chance of winning and then factor that into their punting? Or do we have to wonder if maybe he owns a piece of Horse B and we don't know about it? Punting is an information game. You take a stack of information, interpret it your own way, and try to predict future events. The less information you have, the less likely you are to predict the future correctly. The less likely you are to predict the future correctly, the less likely you are to bet. No-one's saying that Danielle is a crook or anything. She appears to have followed the rules (IANAL). But if the rules allow for jockeys (or anyone, really) to have hidden interests in horses, the rules suck.
  16. So is a jockey allowed to unofficially own half a horse, not tell NZTR, ride another horse in the same race and strongarm their mount so the one they own wins? Are they allowed to do any of those things (for example the first one, which apparently was the case with Balios; while the ownership info on LoveRacing includes Danielle now, it didn't a few days ago)? The correct (as far as we know; who's to say there aren't more owners of Balios that no-one has accidentally mentioned on Trackside?) info is there for Balios now. How many other horses does Danielle kinda-sorta-own that NZTR/the betting public don't know about? How many other horses does Sir Peter Vela secretly co-own with other jockeys? If you don't need to let NZTR know the true ownership details of a horse, how many people who have been warned off are still secret owners? I have no beef with any of the people involved in this situation. I've had nothing to do with any of them (except as a punter). But having secret owners, and jockeys with secret motives the betting public don't know about, looks dodgy as ****. I don't think "It's sorted now, let's move on" is the right approach. It's not so much that we have bigger fish to fry, it's that this is part of the same stinking, rotting fish that is NZTR's ongoing incompetence. It's yet another example from NZTR's court that will further erode punter confidence in NZ thoroughbred racing, further erode turnover, and further erode stakes.
  17. Good tipping from him last week; he got the early quaddies on both Tuesday and Thursday, as well as a 4-leg multi on Thursday which paid nearenough to $10.
  18. The Australian government banned offshore gambling sites, because they don't have the ability to oversee the protection of punters' funds, manage problem gamblers or access the betting records to check for matchfixing and corruption. You'd think that the close relationship between NZ and Australia (and between Tabcorp and NZRB, given that their tote pools are commingled) would lead to an exception being made for the TAB. Unfortunately, NZRB didn't think to bother asking for an exemption and so no-one is allowed to access the NZTAB from Australia.
  19. The one in Cyprus could've been something very special, had it not been for a career-ending injury. Might even have what it takes to throw some good ones, but I don't think Cypriot mares will help.
  20. Would Best of Days be a stallion prospect for NZ? He's a Godolphin horse, a Gr. 2 winner at 2 over 1600m (like his sire Azamour), didn't do all that much in the NH as a 3yo but as a NH 4yo he's come down here to win the Coongy (Gr. 3, 2000m) and Cantala (Gr. 1, 1600m). He's by Azamour - who threw a handful of Gr. 1 winners and stood for a season at Brighthill - from a High Chaparral mare, from a King's Best mare from, a Shirley Heights mare. He's 3m x 4m Northern Dancer, 4f x 4f Darshaan, and 5m x 5m, 4f Shirley Heights. The knock would be that his female family is pretty light (it's not a Godolphin family); there's a stakeswinning 3/4 brother under the second dam but not much else. He didn't do enough in the NH for Darley to be super excited about standing him up there, and he's not the type of horse that Australians look to breed to. There's the Brighthill Farm connection through them standing his sire. A few NZ studs stand Darley horses here too; Complacent, Contributer (in a similar situation to Best of Days; didn't do much up north but won a Gr. 1 mile in Australia), Telperion, Iffraaj, Sweynesse (?). I'm a big fan of Lear Fan (Azamour's damsire) and Shirley Heights, and liked Azamour when he was here. Would it be reasonable for a NZ stud to secure him, even if only on a "If he proves himself he's off to Oz" deal, a la Coolmore with Montjeu and High Chap? Would he be supported by NZ breeders?
  21. I did my arse. Then watching the replay on the news I thought "Wait, didn't I have Ventura Storm (10th) to finish Top 10?". No, I had it for Top 5. Then yesterday my account balance looked a bit healthier than I thought it should've. Turns out I'd forgotten about a boxed multi I placed in August which had Cross Counter to win. So in the end I made a small loss. But I got good value out of the race excitement-wise; after watching the race live I still got to sweat the replay, AND I got the buzz of backing the winner a day later.