RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

chiknsmack

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Everything posted by chiknsmack

  1. Handicappers don't handicap on a race-by-race basis anymore, so anyone could've told you the weight spread in advance (top weight gets 60 or 61kg, others get 0.5kg allowance per rating point, mares get an extra 2kg, minimum 54kg). TN could argue that The Good Shepherd's rating is a few points light, but at a glance I don't see it.
  2. They've both had fewer than 40 runners, they've both had Gr. 1 winners. Any judgement right now is premature.
  3. That barrier is a positive for her. Much better than being drawn in the inside half of the field. Leggy is right that on an overall basis "barriers don't matter" to a statistically-significant degree, especially when you consider that most punters think they do and so overbet horses drawn inside and underbet horses drawn outside. But on a case-by-case basis they matter; in this case the wide draw with only one runner outside her means Imperatriz should get a clean start without being hindered, and should land off the fence where she can come wide and round the leaders up late.
  4. @chevy86 (You might need to right-click the link and open it in a new tab.)
  5. Also interesting that the results there say "WitzEnd/GrailSeeker/MoetDown All Top8" when the market I bet into (and the market in my resulted bets) say Top 10. Might be worth just ignoring powerplays entirely (if it wasn't already).
  6. I checked the Powerplays which I usually forget to do and saw Witz End+Moet Down+Grail Seeker all Top 10 at $1.80. I figured Grail Seeker could beat four home and the other two were my top two picks, so that looked massive overs to me. Glad I didn't unload quite as large as I'd considered.
  7. Are Pick 6 and Place 6 available with Aussie (particularly other Entain) corps? I never hear mention of P6s in Aussie broadcasts, but they all mention the quaddies. It could be as simple as "We're replacing the current betting software with a TAB-coloured version what we use for Lads and Neds" and it'll have upsides (fewer crashes, quicker acceptance of sports bets) which outweigh the downsides (No P6, Pl6, FO F4). Place 6 was a great bet type, but if the stock Entain software doesn't allow it and it doesn't make financial sense to upgrade the software to add it then it has to go.
  8. Unfortunately it's not as NZTR explained and I expected. And I have doubts that it's enough to fix the problems with the track. Good luck to them though.
  9. My first bet was on a million-dollar Pick 6 at Addington. I can't remember the last time I saw a substantial Pick 6 pot in any code.
  10. I'm not sure "Rising 14yo mare whose first foal - by an excellent sire in So You Think - is a 19-start South Island maiden who bled last prep but ran 2nd fresh up this prep at Ashburton" is a great advertisement. Though SYT needed a wind op, so maybe you can put all the blame for the bleeder on him. "Maiden broodmare who won recorded her only win as a 6yo, whose dam is now 3/3 winners to runners after a winner at Ashburton" is perhaps slightly better.
  11. I remember backing his rides a lot in 2021, often purely because he was on them. He'd have a few rides at the main Saturday meeting and then was usually nailed on to win a couple at Toowoomba that night. He hasn't kicked on the way I thought he would (I thought he was Queensland's James McDonald and would end up in Sydney) but nomates is right; he can ride.
  12. Fast forward a few months: The September and October Racedays, incorporating the G1 Hawkes Bay Challenge Stakes, G1 Horlicks Plate, and G1 Ormond Memorial, will now be held by Auckland Thoroughbred Racing at Ellerslie, and not at Hastings. After an inspection of the Hastings track last Friday it was evident that the current issues with the Hastings track will not be remedied in time to hold this important raceday. No, we haven't inspected the Ellerslie track. We're sure it's fine. And then: The November Racedays, incorporating the G1 NZ 1000 and 2000 Guineas, will now be held by Auckland Thoroughbred Racing at Ellerslie, and not at Riccarton. After an inspection of the Riccarton track last Friday via Google Maps it was evident that we'd rather run all G1 races at Ellerslie. We haven't had a chance to test the Ellerslie track since remedial work after last month's abandonments, but we will run the G1s as the first races on their respective days so that the meeting won't be abandoned before they've been run.
  13. Slipper Island backing up on Saturday. Drawn the ace again, it maps further back (I had it 3-back the fence last start when it trailled; I have it 4-back or maybe 3-back this week) off a hotter tempo with a worse jockey. Do we go again? (I'm guessing it's @Gruff's money that has brought it from $7 into $6 already, given he blames McNab for it missing a place last start).
  14. Look at the SuperTab column. I took "on offer" to mean "how long before the start the extra ~$160,000 was added to the pool". Obviously if it'd been lumped on two minutes before the jump more people would've noticed and taken some of the $11.80.
  15. I'm still not confident the Ellerslie surface is entirely fair, but there's no blatant bias I can point to yet either. I don't know what McNab was supposed to do on Slipper Island. Maybe you can argue he should've gone under the leader; the head-on isn't available yet but from side on it looks like the leader didn't roll off the rail until the 300m, at which point Kingfisher had poked up under Slipper Island and so McNab couldn't go back to the inside. Ordinarily he could push the 1x1 horse out of the way late in the turn to go around the two leaders, but there was a 3-wide horse there too.
  16. I think you've stumbled upon the truth. Miss Jools doesn't work for the TAB, she works for NZTR. To your "full renovation" point, I take what they're doing at Awapuni (starting from scratch, adding sand to the soil to improve drainage, installing new drainage and irrigation) to be a full renovation. Washing a house doesn't count as a renovation, nor does mowing a track and cleaning up debris.
  17. Wasn't there talk of building a new track a wee way south-west of town? Rather than a full reno of the turf at the present site why not sell the current track for houses (it's already surrounded by them) and build new? Bonus points if you design a track with a decent start point for the 1600m.
  18. The parents are the first remove, so it'd be 3m x 4m Danehill and 4f x 4m Sadler's Wells. Because in both cases the double is within the first four removes, I'd call it inbreeding rather than linebreeding. In other animals that might not be close enough to be considered inbreeding, but in horses it is IMO.
  19. Setting up a "small operation" at Byerley Park once Singapore shuts down in October. "I don't plan to be a big time trainer, we will train a few, trade a few and race a few and look to re-engage with the many loyal clients we have had from the past".
  20. https://cdn.prism.horse/media/86a686a81f00400b80574d1c7f295883.mp4
  21. Not the strongest vote of confidence from Coolmore. Here's hoping he proves them wrong.
  22. It'd be handy if you told us when in the show this was. Or better yet, post a video which starts at the correct point like the person directly above you was kind enough to do. (Or best, notice your post was surplus to requirements this time and not bother.)
  23. Gold Fever and Milunka are obvious tangerine picks, along with the Te Akau horse I came close to buying a share in (Naadirah; she sold out very quickly). But let's go shopping in Book 2 instead. Lot 731: Flippity Lass Lot 1029: Venetian Raider Lot 1033: Vinavion (passed in, hopefully nominated anyway) Lot 1111: Classy Fashion