[William Reid Stakes field…..tougher for Imperatriz ?]

1 hour ago, nomates said:

Well it's a pretty solid measuring stick I would have thought , OPB on 1 in 4 , Kennedy and McNab , 1st and 2nd on the premiership , both under 1 in 6 , fairly obvious correlation I think .

And please don't suggest those numbers are because they get on the best horses , they get on the best horses because they get the job done .

Please tell me how you assess a jockeys ability .

I don't really bother much. Certainly wouldn't use a statistic like strike rate. I don't really use statistics.

[William Reid Stakes field…..tougher for Imperatriz ?]

1 hour ago, nomates said:

So you can't work out that if OPB is on a form runner drawn 10 out of 10 that he is still worth backing against the second fav who has drawn 2 but has a jockey with a 1 in 10 strike rate , simple equation . 

No. For me whether I would back either totally depends on my assessment of their chance of winning cf. the available price. I don't consider either the draw or the jockey in that assessment.

[William Reid Stakes field…..tougher for Imperatriz ?]

2 minutes ago, nomates said:

So you can't work out that if OPB is on a form runner drawn 10 out of 10 that he is still worth backing against the second fav who has drawn 2 but has a jockey with a 1 in 10 strike rate , simple equation . 

OK. So you assess jockeys by strike rate?

[William Reid Stakes field…..tougher for Imperatriz ?]

2 minutes ago, nomates said:

Even for you that is a rather obtuse question . Not bloody hard to assess the difference in jockeys riding in any given race .

And don't ask how I assess the difference or I might explode at how inane that question is .

If you can't work out in any given race that specific jockeys are lengths ahead of other hence give a horse an advantage then I think you should just stick to lotto .

Might not be hard for you, but I'm interested in learning more about how to do that. I thought that's what these forums were about.

[William Reid Stakes field…..tougher for Imperatriz ?]

5 minutes ago, Contentious said:

I am like you WD - I did not know that. Maybe you would have to be involved with the stable to know OR maybe a Trackside interviewer 

 

[William Reid Stakes field…..tougher for Imperatriz ?]

https://twitter.com/TeAkauRacing/status/1766308732177395713

[William Reid Stakes field…..tougher for Imperatriz ?]

34 minutes ago, Memphis3 said:

First thing I look at is the draw. Then the jockey and overall class of the race. Super reluctant to back wide draws unless definite class edge. Obviously everyone differs otherwise we’d all back the same horse. Track conditions and bias or lack of makes a difference. Then wide draws come into play. Whanganui in winter you have to be wide. JMO 

What do you mean by "overall class of the race" Memphis? And how do you assess jockeys and adjust your pricing accordingly?

[William Reid Stakes field…..tougher for Imperatriz ?]

54 minutes ago, chevy86 said:

So "stand down" bleeding attacks have a nasal origin only -- not in any way pulmonary? And the stipes found this haemorrhage after scoping her after running a very fine second, not tailed off?

Gleeson said regular rider Opie Bosson would have no trouble overcoming the barrier on the nine-time Group 1 winner.

"We'd probably have liked it less had she drawn inside actually," Gleeson said

[William Reid Stakes field…..tougher for Imperatriz ?]

16 minutes ago, MissJools said:

No, that's not correct.  Berri had an Exercise-undiced pulmonary hemorrage, it was an internal hemorrage and is different to a bleeding attack where there is bleeding in the nostrils.

How is it different? Only severity I thought?

[William Reid Stakes field…..tougher for Imperatriz ?]

4 minutes ago, Contentious said:

I thought I heard Imperatriz had a cardiac problem last start - is that correct?

 

Nope.

[Owners to vote on Brightside rider]

35 minutes ago, Pak Star said:

Out of interest, what was the factor that determined its relative chance to win? 

If its the tote price, then one could argue that the tote and betting public have already factored in its barrier, thus the best horse in the field who may otherwise be the favourite, suddenly draws barrier 16 and becomes the 5th favourite, and subsequently finishes 5th, then the data may appear that the barrier had no effect on the result because the 5th best horse according to the tote ended up finishing 5th as it "should".  Whereas in reality it was probably the best horse in the field finishing 5th but tripped up by the barrier daw.

That's a fair and constructive critical question Pak Star. The answer is no. It's a primarily time and ability based assessment of chance which includes a number of other factors such as readiness and race and track condition suitability but NOT barrier draw. Similar to what Daniel O'Sullivan uses above in his assessment of Mr. Brightside but not the same.

[Owners to vote on Brightside rider]

Unfortunately Ohokaman, that article was written by the same bloke - Daniel O'Sullivan - as the article on barrier draws that I posted above so I doubt it will hold much sway with many on here.

[Owners to vote on Brightside rider]

And Pogo, I didn't say that barrier draws don't affect chance. I said that they do not do so significantly. By that, I mean not enough that I consider them when making my betting selections. I was originally questioning Peter RS's claim that they made a huge difference for which he now says he has no data. For those interested, there is some good Australian data, covering over 120,000 starters, in an article here: https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/education/racing-strategy/barrier-positions

That concludes:

1. The strike rate for inside barriers is better than outside barriers. However consider that on average, the benefit of drawing 1 to 3 compared to 12+ is only an extra 2 winners in every 100 races. That’s hardly so significant that it should dominate your thinking about a race.
2. The most important aspect from a betting perspective though isn’t strike rate, it’s how the market allows for that factor in its price for each horse and whether there is any advantage in the average betting returns. You can see from the above table that the profit on turnover percentage from inside barriers is virtually the same as middle barriers and that outside drawn barriers are much better. In fact, if you had backed every horse in a metro race up to $10 from barrier 12+ since 2011, you would have made a small profit, without doing any other analysis whatsoever.

The truth is that wide drawn horses are on average much better value in the market compared those drawn inside. Each track, race and horse is a case by case basis, but having a default bias against wide drawn horses is detrimental to the goal of making profitable betting decisions.

 

[Owners to vote on Brightside rider]

3 hours ago, pogo(aus) said:

my australian data says that when the barrier draw comes out for the Golden Slipper  it's very likely the market will change significantly .

Yes. I agree with that. Barrier draws definitely affect markets and not just the GS one.

[Owners to vote on Brightside rider]

Sorry Insider, the comps don't reflect the way I know how to bet, so I'd be hopeless in them.

If you think your opinion is data then good luck to you. Hope that helps your punting successes.

[Owners to vote on Brightside rider]

43 minutes ago, Insider said:

What the friggin hell does that mean? 

Once again Mr ......... all comes on to try and show us up!

Come in Miss Jools, you might be able to help us understand Curious, otherwise known as Leggy.

I thought that was a fair question even if you don't understand it. My NZ data says that barriers make no significant difference to the chance of a horse winning relative to its chance regardless of barrier. Might be different in OZ. I don't have the data to assess that.

Seemed like a simple question to me.

[Owners to vote on Brightside rider]

22 minutes ago, Peter R S said:

Good barriers make a huge difference unless the horse is clearly superior to the opposition or very good luck goes it’s way. 
 

Any empirical evidence of that relative to the chance of the horse, barriers aside?

[Trentham track update]

Gosh that's a marathon. Had to pretty heavy too.

[You have to wonder why]

9 minutes ago, We're Doomed said:

How do you get a $3 bonus bet? I thought if you got a bonus bet you had to spend it all in one hit.

From a $3 bet?

[Many many more at the Canberra Cup than the Auckland Cup]

8 minutes ago, mikenz said:

Interesting I was reading a article about the beer prices for Cheltenhem, 7 pound 50 for a standard glass, so it's not just us.

Mind you a standard glass might differ from place to place.

5 bucks for a bottled beer at Ashburton the other day! $10 a whitebait sandwich that was mostly whitebait. Worked for me.

[Place 6]

8 minutes ago, diesel said:

Valued? I don't think so! I have been a fan of pick 6 for a long time, and in more recent years the place 6, so am really disappointed and brassed off.  After 40 years as an account holder, I will unfortunately be looking at other options than NZ Tab.

Are there other options that offer pick6 on NZ racing?

[Entain on the charge……?]

4 hours ago, Alf Riston said:

Is that BS de Lore or de Shannon based???

For mine it's a bunch of large ambiguous money with ambiguous destinations.

Not sure what is de Facts and what is de Fiction here and whether or not Racing is truly going to be a winner in de End 

 

Between them, you couldn't make it up but sadly there are some naive enough to believe such illogical hype.

[Place 6]

4 hours ago, Dazzer said:

I'm assuming that Place 6 is not an option on the new platform they are talking about for April

That appears to be correct and seems like a good move by Entain wrt enhancing profit margins.

[Entain on the charge……?]

As expected, complete bs from de Lore. This prompt response from Tony Severinson, Head of Funding and Analytics, NZTR.

Bet 365, along with all other Australian Corporate Bookmakers, do pay Racefields fees to Racing NZ (via TAB NZ) for betting taken on NZ races. This commission is paid directly to the NZ racing code whose product is being bet on.

In addition, offshore betting providers are required to pay Point of Consumption Charges (POCC) to the DIA, set at 10% of Gross Betting Revenue of all bets placed with them by NZ residents. Racing NZ receives a quarterly payment from DIA for POCC, although no breakdown of the contributions from individual operators is available.

[Entain on the charge……?]

8 minutes ago, Pak Star said:

I too would be sceptical about that 30% number.  If someone asked me to guess what percentage of total NZ betting went offshore I would have guessed maybe 20-25% 

To think that BET365 alone is getting 30%, one would have to assume that the other brands like Neds, Ladbrokes, Sportsbet et al would have to at least be on par with that number too, meaning the NZ TAB is taking less than half the turnover of NZ punters?  And I would find that hard to believe..

Agree Pak. It's inconceivable. If Bet365 have somehow managed to capture 30% of the NZ punter online betting market, Entain should be taking lessons from them. And if they are not paying BIU and consumption charges on that, then the DIA need a good kick up the bum.