RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

Leggy

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Everything posted by Leggy

  1. Thanks for your confidence Nerula but I agree with nomates. Not that I don't think that weight differential can make a difference, but that the amount that handicappers have to play with here is insignificant and has no chance of creating proper handicaps. A very good former NZTR senior handicapper told me the same thing, but then moved on to greener pastures.
  2. Probably best to stay there Liz. Nowhere near enough available data to do that. Not sure why you would want to know anyway. Some on here seem to think I think barrier draws are irrelevant even though I don't and never said that.
  3. I don't really bother much. Certainly wouldn't use a statistic like strike rate. I don't really use statistics.
  4. No. For me whether I would back either totally depends on my assessment of their chance of winning cf. the available price. I don't consider either the draw or the jockey in that assessment.
  5. Might not be hard for you, but I'm interested in learning more about how to do that. I thought that's what these forums were about.
  6. https://twitter.com/TeAkauRacing/status/1766308732177395713
  7. What do you mean by "overall class of the race" Memphis? And how do you assess jockeys and adjust your pricing accordingly?
  8. Gleeson said regular rider Opie Bosson would have no trouble overcoming the barrier on the nine-time Group 1 winner. "We'd probably have liked it less had she drawn inside actually," Gleeson said
  9. That's a fair and constructive critical question Pak Star. The answer is no. It's a primarily time and ability based assessment of chance which includes a number of other factors such as readiness and race and track condition suitability but NOT barrier draw. Similar to what Daniel O'Sullivan uses above in his assessment of Mr. Brightside but not the same.
  10. Unfortunately Ohokaman, that article was written by the same bloke - Daniel O'Sullivan - as the article on barrier draws that I posted above so I doubt it will hold much sway with many on here.
  11. And Pogo, I didn't say that barrier draws don't affect chance. I said that they do not do so significantly. By that, I mean not enough that I consider them when making my betting selections. I was originally questioning Peter RS's claim that they made a huge difference for which he now says he has no data. For those interested, there is some good Australian data, covering over 120,000 starters, in an article here: https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/education/racing-strategy/barrier-positions That concludes: The strike rate for inside barriers is better than outside barriers. However consider that on average, the benefit of drawing 1 to 3 compared to 12+ is only an extra 2 winners in every 100 races. That’s hardly so significant that it should dominate your thinking about a race. The most important aspect from a betting perspective though isn’t strike rate, it’s how the market allows for that factor in its price for each horse and whether there is any advantage in the average betting returns. You can see from the above table that the profit on turnover percentage from inside barriers is virtually the same as middle barriers and that outside drawn barriers are much better. In fact, if you had backed every horse in a metro race up to $10 from barrier 12+ since 2011, you would have made a small profit, without doing any other analysis whatsoever. The truth is that wide drawn horses are on average much better value in the market compared those drawn inside. Each track, race and horse is a case by case basis, but having a default bias against wide drawn horses is detrimental to the goal of making profitable betting decisions.
  12. Yes. I agree with that. Barrier draws definitely affect markets and not just the GS one.
  13. Sorry Insider, the comps don't reflect the way I know how to bet, so I'd be hopeless in them. If you think your opinion is data then good luck to you. Hope that helps your punting successes.
  14. I thought that was a fair question even if you don't understand it. My NZ data says that barriers make no significant difference to the chance of a horse winning relative to its chance regardless of barrier. Might be different in OZ. I don't have the data to assess that. Seemed like a simple question to me.
  15. Any empirical evidence of that relative to the chance of the horse, barriers aside?
  16. Gosh that's a marathon. Had to pretty heavy too.
  17. 5 bucks for a bottled beer at Ashburton the other day! $10 a whitebait sandwich that was mostly whitebait. Worked for me.
  18. Are there other options that offer pick6 on NZ racing?
  19. Between them, you couldn't make it up but sadly there are some naive enough to believe such illogical hype.
  20. That appears to be correct and seems like a good move by Entain wrt enhancing profit margins.