RaceCafe..#1...Tipsters Thread.... Share Your Fancies For Fun...Lets See Who The Best Tipsters Here Are.

Leggy

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Posts posted by Leggy

  1. 56 minutes ago, nomates said:

    There is now supposed to be a contract between trainer and employee .

    I thought you still had a hand in the game .

    I don't know where you worked but I know when I was on the studs thru the 80s , in the season I worked 6 1/2 days a week , if we got a quiet day maybe 1 or 2 of us would get a break . My wage never changed from off season to breeding season , a lot of days I often got up for a 6am serving with one of the stallions and still doing the same at 7pm or 8pm .

    Wouldn't happen now , as stated Westbury Stud has 40hour contracts with guaranteed days off , overtime ? I think , all the things that you get in normal working places . All done to retain good staff , and they say it is working . I know of one young lady , the daughter of a friend who wanted to get in to the industry and I gave some help and advice , who now goes back to Westbury every sales series . 

    Even in that area if you don't see that as a dramatic change then I give up .

     

    That's all been a legal requirement since the Employment Contracts Act 2000. Significant change maybe, but over two decades ago. I certainly had them  back then when I had paid employees.

  2. 6 hours ago, nomates said:

    Your catching Dougs disease . 

    Christ you've just posted something elsewhere regarding a trainer/ owner contract , well they now have the same for staff , for one . 

     

    I was simply asking what you saw as dramatic changes. Not sure what you mean by "the same for staff"? An employment agreement?

  3. 1 hour ago, Tauhei Notts said:

    Further to my post on 21st March at 9.26 p.m., here are my handicaps for the Riverton Cup

    Capo Del Impero       61

    Humbucker                58.5

    Shockalla                    58.5

    Prince Alby                  56

    Lochiberg                     55

    The Tui Toiler               54

    Astradeel                      53.5

    Choux In, Lily Of Valley, Twilight Gem      53

    ...........................................................

    The Open Sprint

    Lightning Jack       61

    Midnight Runner    60

    Henry Hubber          59

    The Good Shepherd      58

    Mahabar                      56

    Sea shepherd                56

    More Than Words       55.5

    Hasstobeyou                 55

    Miss Harley Quinn, Zac Black & Arceus       54

    Now;  Compare those weights with the real thing and tell me where I am wrong.

    Weights aren't out yet are they?

  4. 4 hours ago, Insider said:

    Leggy can you confirm something for me?
    My trainer is saying that in BM 65 races, if you have a rating of say 67 you can’t actually run in those races if you have won more than one race. 
    Maybe he is correct, because in the BM 65 race (R8) at Tauranga today the No 1 horse Ethereal Star had a rating of 73, but had won only one race!
    Looking at all BM Races in totality, it appears that BM 65 races have a special rule all to themselves!
    Can you confirm this?
    Hopefully with this long ramble I haven’t confused you but to me it doesn’t seem very clear reading what I can find amongst the BM rules and maybe that’s why you were surprised earlier today that in fact there were R65 BM races.

    Liz
     

    Yes. That's correct. They card them as BM because horses that get to above 65 rating via only one win + say placings in higher grade races are eligible. Probably not very common.

    7.2.2 Rating 65 Benchmark
    These races are open to all horses rated 65 and below. Entry for horses rated above 65
    is restricted to those with one win or less.
    This Rating band may generally include one
    win horses, however, could also include horses with two or more wins that have
    subsequently deteriorated in form. Placed horses with a rating of 65 will remain in this
    grade. Preference in the order of entry will be given to flat winners over Maidens.

  5. 19 minutes ago, We're Doomed said:

    Only very tenuously related to the subject, but I have noticed that very few trainers seem to use the benchmark conditions of the current class system. If you put a 67 into a 65 benchmark race with a 4k claimer you can be incredibly well off at the weights, and gives a bit of scope to race over a preferred distance and in weaker company, yet seldom seems to be used.

    I'm not sure how you get 67 into a 65. Are there BM65s again?

  6. 38 minutes ago, Insider said:

    Yes Leggy, you are 100% correct. 

    I have a self imposed 7 day ban starting last Monday evening, and  damn it, I have come back two days early.

    Not good enough on my behalf.

     

    Please don't feel you have to reply, but FYI it was Brett Scelley a decade ago who told me that he needed at least an 8-9kg spread to effectively handicap within the rating bands. That was at a meeting in Petone because NZTR had asked me to analyse the impact of the handicapping changes that had occurred following the Mark Webbey review a couple of years earlier, which we did pro bono.

    What we found then pretty much concurred with his thinking. This from the summary of that report.

    "The analysis clearly shows both that higher weighted horses are significantly outperforming lower weighted ones, and that females are significantly out performing males."

    My current data says that the situation has worsened if anything. Not a great way to create competitive racing that will build wagering revenue.

  7. 15 minutes ago, Pete Lane said:

    That summed up the way I feel about it in a nutshell.

    The sad thing is that NZTR on one hand go on and on about declining starter numbers and declining foal crops and seem to think that increasing stakes from any pot of gold they can find is the answer, when that strategy has failed to make any difference for decades now. Yet, they show no inclination to fix the handicapping system and give the handicappers a tool to work with that would keep horses in work earning more wagering revenue etc.

  8. 1 minute ago, nomates said:

    Yes , but does he think weight differential makes a diff in a race , if not then no point .

    Thanks for your confidence Nerula but I agree with nomates. Not that I don't think that weight differential can make a difference, but that the amount that handicappers have to play with here is insignificant and has no chance of creating proper handicaps. A very good former NZTR senior handicapper told me the same thing, but then moved on to greener pastures.

  9. 1 hour ago, Insider said:

    I am currently half way through my self imposed "no response to anything that Leggy posts"  but maybe I can call on all his wisdom and data to tell us what the "draws" are saying after the half a dozen meetings run on the new track at Ellerslie.

    Liz

    Probably best to stay there Liz. Nowhere near enough available data to do that. Not sure why you would want to know anyway. Some on here seem to think I think barrier draws are irrelevant even though I don't and never said that.

  10. 1 hour ago, nomates said:

    Well it's a pretty solid measuring stick I would have thought , OPB on 1 in 4 , Kennedy and McNab , 1st and 2nd on the premiership , both under 1 in 6 , fairly obvious correlation I think .

    And please don't suggest those numbers are because they get on the best horses , they get on the best horses because they get the job done .

    Please tell me how you assess a jockeys ability .

    I don't really bother much. Certainly wouldn't use a statistic like strike rate. I don't really use statistics.

  11. 1 hour ago, nomates said:

    So you can't work out that if OPB is on a form runner drawn 10 out of 10 that he is still worth backing against the second fav who has drawn 2 but has a jockey with a 1 in 10 strike rate , simple equation . 

    No. For me whether I would back either totally depends on my assessment of their chance of winning cf. the available price. I don't consider either the draw or the jockey in that assessment.

  12. 2 minutes ago, nomates said:

    Even for you that is a rather obtuse question . Not bloody hard to assess the difference in jockeys riding in any given race .

    And don't ask how I assess the difference or I might explode at how inane that question is .

    If you can't work out in any given race that specific jockeys are lengths ahead of other hence give a horse an advantage then I think you should just stick to lotto .

    Might not be hard for you, but I'm interested in learning more about how to do that. I thought that's what these forums were about.

  13. 34 minutes ago, Memphis3 said:

    First thing I look at is the draw. Then the jockey and overall class of the race. Super reluctant to back wide draws unless definite class edge. Obviously everyone differs otherwise we’d all back the same horse. Track conditions and bias or lack of makes a difference. Then wide draws come into play. Whanganui in winter you have to be wide. JMO 

    What do you mean by "overall class of the race" Memphis? And how do you assess jockeys and adjust your pricing accordingly?

  14. 54 minutes ago, chevy86 said:

    So "stand down" bleeding attacks have a nasal origin only -- not in any way pulmonary? And the stipes found this haemorrhage after scoping her after running a very fine second, not tailed off?

    Gleeson said regular rider Opie Bosson would have no trouble overcoming the barrier on the nine-time Group 1 winner.

    "We'd probably have liked it less had she drawn inside actually," Gleeson said